Global Ag News for Oct 12th
TODAY – USDA WASDE SUPPLY&DEMAND, EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 3 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 3 3/4; Soymeal down $0.10; Soyoil down 0.21.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 1/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 18 1/2; Soymeal down $0.26; Soyoil down 1.21. For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 36 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 31 1/2; Soymeal down $12.60; Soyoil up 1.61.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 24 yuan ; Soymeal down 38; Soyoil down 70; Palm oil down 86; Corn up 14 — Malasyian Palm is down 104. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 104 ringgit (-2.10%) at 4851 as exports of the commodity weakened in October, according to a Kuala Lumpur-based trader.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday. East: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.
The player sheet for Oct. 11 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.
There were changes in registrations (-6 Soyoil). Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 330 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,273 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 8 were: SRW Wheat up 2,121 contracts, HRW Wheat down 43, Corn up 4,175, Soybeans up 1,214, Soymeal up 7,528, Soyoil up 2,795.
- WHEAT TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said it was seeking an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for shipment from Nov. 23-Dec. 3 using 180-day letters of credit. The deadline for offers is Tuesday, Oct. 12.
- WHEAT TENDER: A United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat on behalf of the Ethiopian government
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 90,000 tonnes of wheat, keeping up a trend of strong import demand after more than 1.1 million tonnes bought in past weeks
- FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Jan. 31, 2022 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 24.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from optional origins,
- CORN TENDER: TMO issued an international tender to purchase a total of 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
China Cuts Estimate for 2021-22 Corn Production on Rains: CASDE
China revises down domestic corn output estimate by 850,000 tons from the previous month to 271m tons in 2021-22, according to China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE).
- The continuous rainy weather since September has adverse impact on yield and quality of summer corn in north China
- Corn imports in 2021-22 seen at 20m tons, unchanged from estimate in the previous month
- CASDE report revises up 2021-22 edible vegetable oil imports estimate to 9.33m tons from 8.5m tons
- Estimates for China soybean output, consumption and trade in 2021-22 are kept unchanged from the previous month
U.K. Wheat Harvest Seen Rising 45% From Last Year: Defra
The U.K.’s wheat harvest is estimated at 14m tons, up from 9.66m tons last year, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said in a report Monday, its first estimate for the season.
- Compares with a five-year average of 13.7m tons
- Barley crop seen at 7.11m tons, down from 8.12m tons last year
UkrAgroConsult Raises Ukraine Wheat Crop, Export Estimates
Ukraine’s wheat crop is seen at 32m tons, up 0.8m tons from a September estimate, based on the latest harvest data as farmers complete collection, researcher UkrAgroConsult says in a report. Export forecast for the 2021-22 season raised to 23.3m tons, from 22.5m tons
SovEcon Cuts Russian Wheat Crop Estimate Slightly to 75.5m Tons
SovEcon cut its 2021 Russian wheat crop forecast by 100k tons to 75.5m tons on smaller crops in the center and the Volga valley due to a bigger-than-usual share of unharvested wheat, Black Sea agricultural markets research firm said in statement.
- SovEcon expects Orenburg, the largest Volga valley wheat grower in terms of area, to abandon around 25% of its area as for many farmers it doesn’t make sense to harvest fields with yields of around 0.2 tons/ha.
- This is partly offset by bigger crops in the South and Siberia
- SovEcon also cut Ukraine’s corn crop forecast by 1.2m tons to 38.4m tons amid lower starting yields in the northern regions
- There is also a growing risk that part of the new crop could be unharvested due to the record-slow campaign.
- NOTE: 87% of area planted with grains has been harvested, Russian Agriculture ministry said in Oct. 4 statement
Russian wheat up for 13th week on limited supply and stronger rouble
MOSCOW – Russian wheat export prices rose for a 13th consecutive week, supported by limited supply, a stronger rouble and a higher global benchmark in Paris, analysts said on Monday.
Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in the second half of October was $310 a tonne, free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $3 from the previous week, said Dmitry Rylko, head of consultancy IKAR. Sovecon, another consultancy, pegged wheat as having risen $6 to $312 a tonne and barley up $7 to $269 a tonne.
Russian wheat exports are down 27% since the start of the season on July 1 owing to a smaller crop and higher export tax. The tax, which Moscow has set on a weekly basis since June, will rise to $58.70 a tonne for Oct. 13-19, up from the current $57.80. The price index on which it is based remains lower than the actual FOB price.
WHEAT/CEPEA: Expecting a record crop, producers start harvesting in RS
The wheat harvesting has started in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and continues to advance in other regions in Brazil. This year, the production in RS is likely to hit 3.59 million tons, a record, and higher than the supply in Paraná, which is currently the biggest producer in Brazil. A report released by Emater/RS on October 7 indicates that 3% of the crops in Rio Grande do Sul had been harvested.
Conab data released last week show that the Brazilian wheat crop has been affected by frosts and lack of rains this year; however, the significant area increase may result in a higher production.
Data from Conab indicate that the wheat area may total 2.706 million hectares in 2021, 15.6% more compared to the previous. Productivity was revised to 3.027 tons per hectare, 13.7% above that in 2020. Therefore, the production is expected to amount 8.19 million tons, for a sharp increase of 31.4% compared to the previous season and a record.
In the October report, Conab revised upwards the domestic availability (initial stocks + production + imports), due to the higher production, at 14.337 million tons, 11.41% more in relation to the crop before and the biggest volume since 2016. As for the demand, the domestic consumption estimate was kept at 12.34 million tons, 3.7% above that verified in the season before. The forecast for exports between August/21 and July/22 advanced to 900 thousand tons. Ending stocks by late July 22 may reduce to 1.092 million tons, higher than the 146.9 thousand tons estimated for July/21.
IMPORTS – Secex indicates that, in September/21, Brazil purchased 447.51 thousand tons of wheat, for a decrease of 24.7% compared to the month before and downing 4.1% in relation to September/20.
Brazil Soy Planting 10% Done as of Oct. 7: AgRural
Compares with 4% a week earlier and 3% a year earlier, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report.
- Mato Grosso leads the pace, with current planting above 5-year average
- Summer corn seeding in Brazil’s Center-South is 38% done, compared wth 33% a week earlier and 39% a year ago
France raises 2021 maize, sugar beet crop estimates, cuts wheat
France’s farm ministry on Tuesday raised its estimate of the country’s 2021 grain maize crop, harvesting of which is in progress, to 13.9 million tonnes from 13.0 million last month.
In a monthly crop report the ministry also raised its sugar beet crop estimate to 34.0 million tonnes from 33.1 million seen a month ago.
For soft wheat the ministry lowered its estimate for the 2021 crop to 35.2 million tonnes from 36.1 million expected last month and cut its barley harvest estimate to 11.4 million tonnes from 11.7 million tonnes last month.
France Cuts Soft-Wheat Harvest Estimate, Raises Corn: Ministry
France’s 2021 soft-wheat harvest is now seen at 35.2m tons, versus a September estimate for 36.1m tons, France’s agriculture ministry said Tuesday in a report.
- Heavy summer rains penalized yields of soft-wheat, durum-wheat and barley, while aiding corn, sunflowers and sugar-beet, according to the report
- Durum-wheat harvest seen at 1.55m tons, versus 1.61m tons
- Barley harvest seen at 11.4m tons, versus 11.7m tons
- Rapeseed harvest figure little changed at 3.3m tons
- Corn harvest seen at 14.2m tons, versus 13.3m tons
- Rainy weather and high prices spurred more farmers to shift corn acreage from silage to grain
- Sugar-beet harvest is seen at 34m tons, versus 33.1m tons
Only Quarter of French Wheat in Top Two Quality Grades: AgriMer
Only 31% of France’s soft-wheat harvest has a specific weight, also known as test weight, above 76 kg/hl, down from 76% on average over the past five seasons, according to a report Monday from FranceAgriMer and Arvalis.
- “High temperatures at the time of grain filling and the persistent rains at the end of the cycle were very detrimental to specific weights”
- Protein levels are “satisfactory to good”
- National average is 11.9% and 80% of the harvest is above 11.5%
- In total, 11% of the crop rated in the top “premium” category, versus five-year average of 38%
- 16% rated “superior,” versus average of 29%
- 64% rated “medium,” versus average of 29%
Indonesia Jan.-Sept. Biodiesel Consumption at 6.46M KL: Ministry
- Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil grower, consumed about 6.46 million kiloliters in the first nine months of this year, equivalent to 70.2% of the annual target, according to Dadan Kusdiana, energy ministry’s director general for new and renewable energy.
- Consumption of the palm-based biodiesel is seen on track to reach this year’s target of 9.2m kiloliters, Kusdiana said by text message on Tuesday
Malaysia Oct. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports to India 108,130 Tons: SGS
Following is a table of Malaysia’s palm oil export figures, according to estimates by independent cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia Sdn.
- India imported 108,130 tons; -12.8% m/m
- China imported 58,105 tons; -52.5% m/m
U.S. Considers Faster Hog Slaughtering
The Biden administration is mulling a plan that may let some pork plants slaughter pigs more quickly if they boost staffing, Reuters reported, citing a union official.
- Proposal was put forward by Quality Pork Processors and union officials; it could benefit companies including WH Group’s Smithfield Foods and JBS, Reuters said
- The federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration did not immediately respond to a request for comment, Reuters said; the USDA did not respond to subsequent questions from Reuters, and Quality Pork Processors did not respond to requests for comment
ADM Named to Fortune’s 2021 Change the World List
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