Global Ag News for Nov 9th
TODAY – USDA WASDE SUPPLY/DEMAND
Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $0.04; Soyoil up 0.18.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 in SRW, up 4 3/4 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $0.05; Soyoil down 0.55. For the month to date wheat prices are down 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 36 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 14 3/4; Soybeans down 61; Soymeal down $0.40; Soyoil down 3.04.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 58 yuan ; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil down 72; Palm oil down 50; Corn up 18 — Malasyian Palm is down 103. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 103 ringgit (-2.10%) at 4792 due to weak soybean oil prices and expectations that Malaysian stockpiles will rise.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 8 were: SRW Wheat down 4,069 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,503, Corn up 26,503, Soybeans up 8,066, Soymeal up 3,845, Soyoil up 931.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday-Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers west Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers west Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers Monday night-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Snow north Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday. East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.
The player sheet for Nov. 8 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.
- CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 150,000 tonnes of U.S. corn to Colombia for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
- CORN TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 325,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
- VEGOIL TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Monday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival Jan. 5 – 25. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight or with 180-day letters of credit. The deadline for offers is Nov. 10.
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
‘Sharp Tick Upward’ in Seed Pricing Is Likely in 2022: Rabobank
Seed pricing is likely to rise in the 2022 season as seed companies look to benefit from high corn and soybean prices, according to a Rabobank report Monday.
- Farmers could see “an aggressive upward price movement for 2022 seed,” which could be as much as 8-14%
- Quoted prices on some agrochemicals have increased 40-250% on freight increases, Chinese environmental protection initiatives, weather events
- Fertilizer prices could see further gains between now and spring 2022
- Farmers’ margins in 2022 will be”greatly reduced” from 2020 and 2021: Rabobank
Ukraine’s Dry Autumn Hampers Winter Crops
“The fall of 2021 turned out to be the driest in 20 years, especially October,” Kyiv-based analyst UkrAgroConsult says in a report.
- “This resulted in lower soil moisture content available to winter crops. But low air temperatures, many cool and sometimes even cold days, abundant dews and fogs prevented large-scale drought”
- Winter crops are in fair to good condition
- Showers may expand in the region next week, but are arriving late as winter dormancy starts setting in: Commodity Weather Group
- Half of Ukraine’s wheat crop not well established
Brazil’s Soy Seen Having Higher Disease Risk
Brazil’s northern region seen getting excessive precipitation and below average temperatures in the next ten days, hampering fieldwork and chemical applications, Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at Climatempo in Sao Paulo, says in a report.
- Seven-day accumulation seen from 150mm (6 inches) to 200mm in Mato Grosso, Goias, Rondonia and Minas Gerais states
- Risks for disease occurrences are increasing for November and December in those states amid wet weather
- In the nation’s northeast, soybeans may get above average rains, while the south will be drier this week
- Coffee farms in Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Mogiana region, in Sao Paulo state, may get heavy rain this week, increasing soil moisture
ARGENTINA SOY, GRAINS
- Spotty rain seen for producing regions this week, spreading during the weekend between La Pampa and Cordoba provinces to favor soil moisture conditions: Oliveira
- About 25% of Argentina’s soybeans, corn and wheat are under short-term stress, which is expected to narrow next week, Commodity Weather group says in report
Chinese Corn Price Rises as Farmers Reluctant to Sell: CASDE
Due to higher costs in harvesting and drying corn in the latest season, farmers have been reluctant to sell just as feed consumption has improved, according to China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
- This is supporting domestic corn prices, with benchmark futures in Dalian trading near the highest level since June
- Nation’s corn harvest is basically done; northeastern regions see “good quality” crops
- Forecast for China’s corn imports in 2021-22 remain unchanged at 20m tons
- Estimates for China’s 2021-22 soybean imports have remained unchanged since May forecast of 102m tons
- Domestic soy harvest coming to an end, with conducive weather in most northeastern regions
- Production conditions are also favorable for U.S. and South American soybeans
- New cotton supply and sales from state stockpiles will boost market supply and increase likelihood of price declines
- Production in U.S., Pakistan, West Africa and other countries has increased from previous year, and tight global supply and demand balance has eased slightly
- Outlook for China’s 2021-22 cotton supply and demand remains consistent with previous forecasts
- Production seen at 5.73m tons, imports at 2.5m tons and consumption at 8.2m tons
France Raises Wheat, Corn Crop Est.; Sunseed at Record: Ministry
France’s 2021 soft-wheat harvest is now seen at 35.5m tons, versus an October estimate for 35.2m tons, France’s agriculture ministry said Tuesday in a report.
- Corn crop seen at 14.8m tons, versus 14.2m tons
- “Corn, sunflower and beet harvests benefited from the summer rains and are still estimated to have increased significantly compared to 2020,” the ministry said
- Sunflower production will reach 2m tons, an all-time high
- Sugar-beet harvest is seen at 34.1m tons, versus 34m tons
- Durum-wheat crop seen at 1.59m tons, versus 1.55m tons
- Barley crop estimate kept little changed at 11.4m tons
- Rapeseed crop also steady at 3.3m tons
Global Biofuel Capacity to Soar Despite Feedstock Cost: BofA
Global capacity to produce renewable fuels, including diesel, jet fuel and naphtha, is likely to nearly quadruple by 2025 as countries pledged to cut emissions, according to Bank of America report.
- Biofuel capacity should increase by ~700k b/d; industry currently produces ~2.8m b/d
- Producer are likely to face feedstock constraints
- Global vegetable oil supply expanded at an average rate of 3% a year between 2013-19
- Hog and cattle herds grew below 1% a year for past decade
- U.S. government is likely to announce lower 2021-2022 RFS targets amid inflationary concerns
- Soaring prices of corn and soybeans used to make ethanol and biodiesel would impact the cost of compliance with biofuels mandate
- Rising biofuels and feedstock demand could push California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) prices to their cap
Brazil 2021-22 Soy Planting 67% Done as of Nov. 4: Agrural
Compares with 52% a week earlier and 56% a year earlier, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report. Summer corn planting in Brazil Center-South is 75% done, compared with 63% a week earlier and 68% a year earlier
WHEAT/CEPEA: Despite the progress of the harvesting of record crop, imports continue high
The wheat harvesting is in progress in Brazil. With slightly over 50% of the crops already harvested, the output may hit the record estimated for the current season. The quality of the product harvested is considered good. Still, wheat imports continue high, increasing the domestic supply. Thus, if some of the national wheat is not exported, ending stocks may be high by mid-2022.
Most wheat farmers are stocking higher-quality wheat, aiming to sell it in early 2022, expecting higher prices. On the other hand, many purchasers are waiting for values to drop, based on the record harvest – those with high needs opt for importing the cereal.
According to data from Conab, until Oct. 30, 58.6% of the Brazilian wheat crops had been harvested. Considering the states, activities have reached 95% of the area in São Paulo, 82% in Paraná, 36.4% in Santa Catarina and 28% in Rio Grande do Sul. In Minas Gerais, Goiás and Bahia, the harvesting has ended.
In a report released in October, Conab estimated the Brazilian wheat output at 8.2 million tons and imports (Aug/21 – Jul/22) at 6 million tons. In the last 12 months, Brazil imported 6 million tons of wheat – 5.4 million tons in 2021 and 517.5 thousand tons in October/21. The volume imported last month was 508.57 thousand tons higher than that from Oct/20.
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