Global Ag News for Nov 29.24

TOP HEADLINES

EU 2024-25 Total Grains Production Outlook Raised to 256.9m Tons

The EU’s total grains production is seen at 256.9 million tons, up from an October estimate of 255.6 million tons, the European Commission said in a report.

• Soft-wheat harvest is seen at 112.3m tons in the 2024-25 season, cut from October estimate of 112.6m tons
• Durum wheat production steady at 7.2m tons
• Barley forecast steady at 49.8m tons
• Corn forecast increased to 59.6m tons from 58m tons

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

U.S. ag markets are closed overnight and will reopen this morning. For the week so far wheat prices are down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 21 in HRW, down 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil down 0.92.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 41 3/4 in SRW, down 38 1/2 in HRW, down 37 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal down $5.90; Soyoil down 4.15.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.4% in SRW, down 18.0% in HRW, down 22.0% in HRS; Corn is down 11.8%; Soybeans down 23.6%; Soymeal down 24.7%; Soyoil down 14.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 25) Soybeans down 4 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil up 104; Palm oil up 186; Corn down 14 — Malaysian Palm is up 135.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 135 ringgit (+2.76%) at 5020.

There were changes in registrations (700 Soymeal, 100 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 114 Corn; 422 Soybeans; 369 Soyoil; 776 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 27 were: SRW Wheat down 2,245 contracts, HRW Wheat down 693, Corn down 25,830, Soybeans down 2,165, Soymeal down 294, Soyoil up 2,883.

 

Brazil: Showers continue in central Brazil, but have been very isolated the last few days. A front moving up from Argentina will get into southern areas Wednesday, and enhance showers over central Brazil by Friday. Several more fronts coming from Argentina should keep the country active through next week with mostly good growing conditions. Heavy rain potential across the south may cause some flooding concerns, however.

Argentina: A front has produced some heavier rainfall across northern areas of the country the last few days. That continues Wednesday before the front makes its way into Brazil. However, additional showers will move through for the rest of the week and another system and front move through Sunday and Monday with more scattered showers. Precipitation is forecast to be heavier over northern areas and some areas in the central and south will need more rainfall. The threat of heat and dryness due to the building La Nina may be a threat later in the season as well.

Northern Plains: Several disturbances will bring down colder air from the Canadian Prairies and occasional snow showers going into next week. Temperatures will be very cold and some records may be broken. Temperatures may moderate by the middle of next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system is quickly moving through the region on Wednesday with some areas of showers. A burst of colder air will move through behind it that will stick around through the weekend and may produce occasional light showers. The colder air will help to push more wheat into dormancy, mostly in good condition. Temperatures may moderate by the middle of next week.

Midwest: A system will move through southern areas Wednesday into early Thursday with a mix of rain and snow. Cold, arctic air will flow in behind it, producing heavier lake-effect snow east of the Great Lakes. Some additional disturbances could bring some light snow through on occasion this weekend and next week. Cold air will have a tendency to continue flowing in next week as well, keeping the lake-effect going.

 

The player sheet for Nov. 27 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 8,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 132,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought about 140,000 to 150,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that sought limited shipment to two ports only
• WHEAT, DURUM PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat and about 100,000 tons of durum in an international tender for the same volume
• CORN, SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed corn to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender for up to 240,000 metric tons
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender.
• NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 40,000 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States
• BARLEY EXPORT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to sell and export about 150,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.4% to 22.869M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.745 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.119m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.102m

 

USDA October soy crush seen at record 210.9 million bushels, analysts say

The U.S. soybean crush in October likely jumped to a record-high 6.327 million short tons, or 210.9 million bushels, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Monday.

If the average of seven analyst estimates is realized, it would be up 13.1% from 186.5 million bushels crushed in September and up 4.7% from the October 2023 crush of 201.4 million bushels.

U.S. soy processing capacity has grown in recent years as some crushers expanded plants while others built new ones to meet rising vegetable oil demand from biofuels makers.

October’s crush, however, is not expected to fully reflect the capacity growth as a large processing plant in Des Moines, Iowa, was idled for maintenance for a portion of the month, analysts said.

Crush estimates ranged from 209.5 million to 212.0 million bushels, with a median of 210.5 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (2000 GMT) on Monday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of Oct. 31, 2024, were estimated at 1.520 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from five analysts.

The oil stocks estimate, if realized, would reflect a 1.3% increase from 1.501 billion pounds in storage at the end of September and a 1.2% rise from year-ago stocks totaling 1.502 billion pounds. It would also be the first stocks increase in seven months, according to USDA data.

Estimates ranged from 1.500 billion to 1.569 billion pounds, with a median of 1.505 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed a record 199.959 million bushels last month. End-of-month oil stocks edged slightly higher to 1.069 billion pounds after thinning in the previous month to the lowest level since November 2014.

 

Brazil Soy Output in 2024-25 to Reach 172.2 M Tons: Agroconsult

Forecast is 11% more than the 155.5 million tons produced by the South American country in 2023-24 marketing year, Agroconsult President André Pessôa says at event.

• Soybean planted area in 2024-25 estimated at 47.5 million hectares, 1.5% larger than in prior crop year
• Most of soybean plants are developing well so far, said Pessôa
  • Majority of soybeans expected to be harvested in February, which brings weather-related risks
• Brazil to export 103.4 million tons of soy in 2025, up 5.3% from 2024
• Corn production to reach 132.7 million tons, 3.5% higher than 128.2 million tons in 2023-24 season crop
  • Corn exports forecast at 42 million tons, up 9.2% from previous season
• Cotton production in 2024-25 estimated at 4.09 million tons, up 12% from 2023-24

 

Argentina’s soybean fields in good shape after recent rains, report shows

Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop is in good condition after getting a moisture boost from rainfall in the country’s main farming regions in recent weeks, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Thursday.

According to the exchange’s weekly crop report, 98% of the area planted with soybeans now has adequate to optimal moisture.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of soybean oil and meal.

Farmers have so far planted 44.4% of the 18.6 million hectares (46 million acres) sown with soybeans, advancing 8.6 percentage points in the last week, according to the report.

Regarding the 2024/25 corn crop, the exchange said the rains “have allowed the continued improvement in the condition of early plantings (plots planted),” with nearly 97% of cases analyzed nationwide in normal or excellent condition.

The exchange estimates that Argentine farmers have already planted 41.3% of the 6.3 million hectares it forecasts will be planted with corn this season. The exchange also said that 38.7% of the wheat for the 2024/25 campaign has already been harvested, with production estimated at 18.6 million tonnes.

 

Argentina soybean production up on rapid sowing pace amid favorable weather

2024/25 Argentina: 51.2 [49.0–53.5] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent widespread precipitation over the core producing areas of the Pampas boosts soil moisture and slightly (<1%) raises 2024/25 Argentina soybean production to 51.2 [49.0–53.5] million tons, though long-term weather outlooks remain gloomy. Our current estimate puts planted area at 17.9 million hectares, in line with the Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario’s latest outlook, but well below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 18.6 million hectares. In November’s WASDE (released on 08 November), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 51 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in October. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 50.8 and 53-53.5 million tons, respectively.

Wet weather continued across the whole Pampas region over the past two weeks, albeit with an overall reduced intensity compared to late October/early November. Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos, Santa Fe, and western Córdoba – which collectively account for over 70% of the country’s total soy production – all received at least 50 mm of precipitation in total during the period, mostly near to above normal (except for few areas of northern Buenos Aires). The rest of the Pampas also benefited from occasional rainfall, helping recharge soil moisture storage. Temperatures have turned notably cooler since mid-November, especially across the central and northern parts of the Pampas, with Santiago del Estero and areas to the east recording near 3-4 °C below normal. Cool weather is likely to linger into early December, which should continue to aid the overall planting efforts.

Soybean planting is nationally 36% complete so far according to the Ministry of Agriculture, now ahead of last year’s 33%, and slightly ahead of the 5-year average of 34%. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires also reported a progress of 35.8%, largely on schedule. Despite a recent marked recovery in soil moisture amid rapid overall planting progress, our long-term yield prospects remain rather bleak, reflecting unfavorable hot and dry weather outlooks for December through February (during the crop’s peak growing season) assessed by the LSEG Weather Research team. The current La Niña event is forecast to last through the end of the year and may not completely dissipate by early next year, warranting close attention.

 

Russia July-Nov. Wheat Exports Running Ahead Y/y: Tass

Russia’s exports of wheat so far this season are expected to reach 25.3m tons, 1.7m tons higher than at this point last season, Tass reported, citing comments from Rusagrotrans.

• Total wheat exports this season could amount to 41.7m tons: Tass
• Grain exports in July-Nov. 2024 seen at 30.1m tons, 1m tons less than same period previous year

 

French Wheat Planting Nearly Done, Ahead of 2023 Pace: AgriMer

About 93% of the French soft-wheat crop was planted as of Monday, compared with 81% last year and a five-year average of 91%, FranceAgriMer said on its website.

• Some 87% of the soft-wheat was in “good” or “very good” condition, compared with 88% a year earlier
• 98% of the winter-barley crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 96%
  • Some 84% of the winter barley was in “good” or “very good” condition, steady from a year earlier
• 63% of the durum-wheat crop was planted, compared with a five-year average of 66%
• About 89% of the French corn crop was harvested as of Monday, up from 82% the previous week but still lagging behind the five-year average of 98%

 

Indonesia Committed to Start B40 Biodiesel in Jan: Minister

The oil palm fund management agency, known as BPDP KS, can help finance the program, says Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto.

• “We are committed to start on Jan. 1, and we have already decided the additional volume for the quota,” he says, without mentioning the figures
• With the current incentive scheme, govt sees BPDP KS fund sufficient to finance the gap between CPO prices and gasoil, he says
• Palm oil market continues to fluctuate, with prices reaching a record high in 2022 during COVID, and has not reached normal levels in 2023, he says
• B40 program can cut Indonesia’s carbon emissions by about 40m tons

 

Brazil Farm-Machinery Revenue Is Forecast to Drop 23% This Year

That compares with previous estimate of a 25% decline in sales, according to industry group Abimaq’s agriculture machinery chamber.

• Forecast of favorable weather conditions for 2024-25 crop has recently driven farmers to resume purchases, Pedro Estevão Bastos de Oliveira, president of agriculture machinery chamber, said in a press conference
  • Sales to soy, corn farmers in Brazil make up as much as 65% of total machinery sales in the country, he said
  • Purchases by producers of cocoa, orange juice and coffee have helped to reduce drop in machinery sales, partly thanks to higher prices for the commodities
• Falling soybean, corn prices, along with high interest rates and crop losses, have led to fewer purchases through 2024
• Abimaq expects an 8% rise in farm-machinery sales next year as larger grain crops should bring some profits to farmers after years of losses

 

Argentina Eases Restrictions on Export and Debt Dollar Sales

Argentina extended the deadlines for the entry and sale of dollars from goods and services exports in the official market, according to a rule published at the central bank website on Thursday.

• Deadlines for the entry of soybean, corn and wheat dollars will be extended to 30 calendar days, from current 15
  • Deadline to sell dollars from good and services exports will be extended to 20 days, from current 5
• The new rule also eases deadlines for the entry of foreign currency from foreign financing

 

 US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 893k tons in the week ending Nov. 23 from 782k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 24.9% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 3.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $15.92 per short ton, a decline of $0.32 from the previous week

 

 

 

 

 

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