Global Ag News for Nov 28.23

TOP HEADLINES

EU Winter Crop Plantings Hampered by Excess Rains: MARS

Wetter-than-usual conditions have delayed planting of winter crops, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in a report.

• Rain slowed sowing in most of western and northern Europe, plus parts of central Europe
  • Some crops may have to be re-sown in southern Ireland
• Parts of Russia and northern Ukraine were also overly wet
• The abundant rainfall could affect initial growth
• Meanwhile, dry weather delayed crop sowing in parts of Spain, Italy, Romania and Bulgaria

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil up 0.41.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $4.90; Soyoil up 1.18.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 3/4 in SRW, down 42 in HRW, down 24 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans up 26 1/2; Soymeal up $21.00; Soyoil up 0.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 32.3% in SRW, down 33.3% in HRW, down 26.8% in HRS; Corn is down 32.8%; Soybeans down 12.0%; Soymeal down 3.2%; Soyoil down 18.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans down 32 yuan; Soymeal down 42; Soyoil up 80; Palm oil up 88; Corn down 17 — Malaysian Palm is up 5. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 5 ringgit (+0.13%) at 3896.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,950 SRW Wheat contracts; 522 Oats; 4 Corn; 596 Soybeans; 62 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 400 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 27 were: SRW Wheat down 2,007 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,910, Corn down 31,637, Soybeans down 4,959, Soymeal down 5,778, Soyoil down 10,448.

Brazil: Scattered showers continue in central Brazil, typical of the wet season, but at a reduced coverage and intensity thanks to El Nino. Forecasts have these showers picking up again this weekend as a front moves into the region. Southern Brazil continues to see too much rain for developing corn and soybeans, especially in Parana, but the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul did see a break over the weekend and precipitation this week looks more limited here for the week, even with the front moving through late week.

Argentina: A drier stretch continued over the weekend with little or no rainfall for the last several days in the country. however, a front will go through with scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday and another follows closely behind it for Thursday and Friday, bringing good rainfall to much of the country’s growing regions. Additional showers may continue in some areas over the weekend and next week as well. Overall, conditions are mostly favorable for corn and soybean planting and development.

Australia: Scattered showers continue over eastern areas this week, helping to ease extremely dry conditions in a lot of this part of the country. It is too late for wheat and canola, which is delaying harvest and could cause quality issues instead, but will help developing cotton and sorghum. Western areas continue to be too dry with little precipitation forecast for the next week

Northern Plains: Some light snow moved through over the weekend. It will largely be dry this week as clippers pass off to the north and any stronger storms will pass by to the south. Temperatures will be warmer compared to normal for the next couple of weeks.

Central/Southern Plains: Moderate to heavy snow fell in the region over the weekend. Temperatures became cold over the snow but some of it already started to melt away on Sunday. With temperatures moderating this week and going above normal this coming weekend, the snow will not last long and should build at least a little soil moisture for wheat as it starts to go dormant. Additional storm systems will pass through the region late this week, weekend, and next week, favoring the elimination of drought and building of soil moisture.

Midwest: A system passed through the region this weekend and brought widespread precipitation, moderate in some areas. Snowfall was light and will not last long in most areas. Colder air pressed into the region and will create lake-effect snow through midweek, but temperatures will then moderate and go above normal this coming weekend. Scattered showers will move through with a system late this week and with another this weekend into early next week, but mostly as rain, though some snow may mix in for a few areas. The precipitation will help to build soil moisture and ease drought that remains.

Delta: A system moved through this weekend with some light showers. The region is starting to become more active, with more systems lining up to move through late this week, weekend, and next week as well. The pattern favors drought reduction and increases to water levels on the Mississippi River, though the latter effect may be slow.

The player sheet for Nov. 27 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 110,000 metric tons of wheat.
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 69,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from South America or South Africa
• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced optionally from the United States, South America or South Africa
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase around 95,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Canada

PENDING TENDERS

• SUGAR TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities announced a tender to import 50,000 tonnes of raw sugar and/or 50,000 tonnes of refined white sugar, all from any origin, on behalf of the Egyptian Sugar & Integrated Industries Company. The deadline for offers was Nov. 25.
• NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 50,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs)
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 20,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs).

 TODAY

US Inspected 407k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.443m of Soybeans

In week ending Nov. 23, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 407k tons vs 601k the previous wk, 312k a yr ago
• Wheat: 277k tons vs 366k the previous wk, 284k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,443k tons vs 1,631k the previous wk, 2,229k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Nov. 23

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Nov. 23 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 872k tons of the 1.44m total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

Canada Crushed 974K Tons of Canola in October: StatsCan

Canola processing rose 10.1% in October from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Monday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 412k tons, and meal output at 566k tons
• Aug.-Oct. crushings up 17.9% from year ago to 2.726m tons

Brazil Soybean Planting 74% Done as of Nov. 23: AgRural

Soybean planting is 74% complete as of Nov. 23, compared to 68% in prior week and 87% a year earlier, according to an emailed report from AgRural consulting firm.

• Pace is the slowest since 2015/16; progress is being limited by the slowness of works in Rio Grande do Sul state, where humidity makes it difficult for machines to enter the field
• 2023/24 summer corn planting in Brazil’s Center-South region is 83% complete, versus 80% a week earlier and 88% a year before

Black Sea Storm Halts Oil and Grain Ports in Russia, Ukraine

• Kazakhstan reduces oil output as CPC link accepts less crude
• Transhipment of cargoes via Kerch strait remains halted

A Black Sea storm halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine and left more than a million people across the region without power.

The storm is expected to last most of this week, according to Russia’s oil-pipeline operator Transneft PJSC. Winds estimated to be as strong as 40 meters per second (90 miles per hour) were expected to continue on Monday, forcing authorities in Russian-occupied Crimea to declare it a non-working day and leaving half a million people without power. Heavy snow also hit southern and central Ukraine.

A break in the storm may allow Novorossiysk terminal to temporarily resume loadings on Tuesday, according to operator Transneft.

Grain Halted

The storm has also affected the Kerch strait, which connects the Sea of Azov with the Black Sea and is key for Russia’s grain exports. Transhipment of cargoes has been halted and a storm alert remains in place, Russia’s Federal River and Marine Transportation Agency said in a Telegram post.

Wind speeds are expected to ease from an estimated 23 to 28 meters per second in the first half of the day, to 15 to 20 meters a second in the second half, the agency said, citing the outlook of Russia’s service for hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring.

Shipments from Ukraine’s greater Odesa ports via the Black Sea have been halted due to the weather, according to people in the sector familiar with the matter. Ukraine’s infrastructure ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Russian Govt Orders to Monitor Grain Stocks Monthly: Izvestia

Russian Government ordered Agriculture Ministry to conduct monthly monitoring of grain stock balances, Izvestia reports, citing protocol of Nov. 3 meeting of government agencies and ministries.

• If grain stocks fall to a critical level, the ministry should submit a proposal to Economy Ministry and Industry and Trade Ministry for a temporary ban on exports of crops (wheat, barley, corn, rye)
• Agriculture Ministry considers 10m tons, i.e. about 1.5 months of consumption, to be the critically low level of grain stocks

Ukraine to Expand Territories of Danube Ports, Cabinet Says

Ukraine’s government passed resolutions to expand the physical boundaries of port areas of Reni, Izmail and Ust-Dunaysk on the Danube river, Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority said on Facebook late Monday.

• Cabinet is working to expand current capacity of Danube ports, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal says in the statement without providing any details
• NOTE: Ukrainian Danube Ports Doubled Cargo Handling Despite Attacks
• NOTE: Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said in April that Ukraine is seeking investments in new terminals and dredging works in Danube ports

WHEAT/CEPEA: Harvest is near to the end; price remains increasing

The wheat harvest is advancing in Brazil and close to the end. However, most of the cereal from the South – the largest producer in Brazil – has been presenting low quality, due to the high volume of rainfall. The unfavorable weather may reduce the domestic wheat supply. Then, prices are moving up in Brazil.

According to Conab, the harvest in Brazil reached 94.2% until November 18. In Paraná, activities were finished, Seab/Deral says. In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater indicates that the harvest totaled 93% of the area up to Nov. 23. Rains in Rio Grande do Sul State remain hindering activities and affecting the wheat quality that is still planted.

According to data from Cepea, between November 17 and 24, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 2.84% in Paraná; 5.23% in Santa Catarina and 1.77% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved up 1.62% in São Paulo, 1.32% in Paraná, 4% in Rio Grande do Sul and 3.5% in Santa Catarina.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between November 13 and 17, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 256.07/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 4.8832, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,250.45/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was lower, at BRL 1,295.38/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 239.48/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,169.43/ton – against BRL 1,199.12/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

Brazil cattle passing through feedlots steady at 7 mln head in 2023 – DSM

The number of cattle slaughtered in Brazil after spending 90 days in feedlots will reach an estimated 7.030 million head in 2023, a survey of Brazil’s cattle market by Dutch nutrition company DSM Firmenich showed on Monday.

The projection represents virtual stability from 2022’s 7.048 million head. Still, over the years, the number has been growing as Brazilian ranchers seek more efficient ways to raise and finish livestock, DSM executives said at a press conference presentation.

Cargill Adds Indirect Suppliers to Anti-Deforestation Pledge

• Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay included in 2025 commitment
• All suppliers of soy, corn, wheat, and cotton to be monitored

Cargill Inc. is expanding its commitment to buying deforestation-free crops in South America, including supplies it purchases from other merchants and traders.

The world’s largest agricultural commodities trader won’t buy any major crops from deforested areas in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay from 2025, it said Monday in a statement. The pledge includes for the first time supplies from third parties — the hardest ones to trace.

Cargill is building on last year’s pledge to source deforestation-free soy supplies from the Amazon, Cerrado and Gran Chaco biomes by adding corn, wheat and cotton to its goal and expanding its geographic scope. The commitment covers a region responsible for about 30% of global trade flows and 13% of the world’s output of the crops included in the pledge.

The enhanced effort requires not only monitoring farmers and companies that supply the crops, but also farming cooperatives, grains resellers, agricultural industry retailers and traders. Cargill said it will be working with the World Resources Institute for monitoring and verification. Cargill’s commitment comes as world leaders prepare to gather later this week at United Nations’ COP28 climate change summit in Dubai.

 

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