Global Ag News for Nov 1st
TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, FATS & OIL SEEDS, GRAIN CRUSHINGS, CROP PROGRESS
Wheat prices overnight are up 3 3/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 8 1/4; Soymeal down $0.27; Soyoil down 0.12.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 17 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, up 29 in HRS; Corn is up 30 1/4; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal up $0.27; Soyoil down 1.98.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 51 in SRW, up 54 3/4 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 31 1/2; Soybeans down 24 1/4; Soymeal up $1.20; Soyoil up 2.46.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 64 yuan ; Soymeal down 56; Soyoil up 10; Palm oil up 114; Corn up 11. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 72 ringgit (-1.43%) at 4954.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,318 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 29 were: SRW Wheat up 2,323 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,668, Corn up 10,078, Soybeans down 246, Soymeal up 2,496, Soyoil up 146.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Isolated showers north Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers south Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers west Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers south Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday. East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal north and below normal south Sunday.
The player sheet for Oct. 29 had funds: zero contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.
- CORN, SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported private sales of 279,415 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year. The USDA also reported 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2021/22 shipment and 222,350 tonnes for unspecified dates.
- WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organisation (SAGO), said on Monday it had bought about 1.268 million metric tonnes of milling wheat at an average price of $377.54 per tonne.
- WHEAT TENDER: Pakistan issued a new international tender to purchase around 90,000 tonnes of wheat after cancelling a previous tender seeking the same volume
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
CROP SURVEY: U.S. Soybean Crush and Corn for Ethanol
- Soybean crush seen at 163.6m bu in Sept., a 4.4% drop from year ago
- Crude and once-refined soybean-oil reserves at end of September seen at 2.184b lbs, up from 1.853b
- Corn used in ethanol production seen up 1.6% y/y to 408.9m bu
Indian Edible Oil Producers Cut Local Prices in Diwali Gesture
Vegetable oil producers in India are reducing domestic prices to consumers by 3,000 to 5,000 rupees ($40 to $67) a ton in a gesture to mark the Diwali festival later this week, the Solvent Extractors’ Association said.
Global edible oils have skyrocketed this year with production hit by labor shortages in Malaysia and drought in Canada, pushing up the cost of oils in India, which imports as much as 70% of its needs. The government has trimmed import duties four times since February in a bid to cool domestic prices, and has also imposed inventory limits to curb hoarding.
- Prices of palm olein and refined soybean oil in India have declined 7% since the last duty cut in October, while refined sunflower oil has dropped 11%, according to the association. The price of palm olein was 119 rupees per liter on Oct. 30, that of soybean oil was 125 rupees and of sunflower oil 128 rupees, it said.
- Record local soybean and groundnut crops are being harvested, and are putting pressure on oilseed and oils prices, while planting of the mustard seed crop could reach an all-time high, the association said.
EU Lowers Estimates for 2021 Wheat, Barley and Corn Harvests
The EU’s 2021 soft-wheat harvest is now seen at 130.3m tons, down from a September estimate for 131m tons, the European Commission said in a report.
- Estimate for exports to third countries kept steady at 30m tons
- Stockpile estimate raised to 13.9m tons
- Barley crop estimate cut to 51.9m tons, from 52.4m ton
- Corn crop estimate cut to 67.8m tons, from 68.8m tons
- Durum-wheat crop estimate cut to 7.4m tons, from 8m tons
- Decreases due to lower production in countries including France, Romania and Hungary
European Fertilizer Prices Set to Surge Amid Energy Squeeze
Fertilizer in Europe is poised to get even pricier, adding to concerns that bigger production costs for food could add to inflation.
A gauge of western European prices for ammonia, used to make nitrogen fertilizer, surged to a 13-year high to $910 a metric ton.
Europe has been hard hit by the natural gas crunch, which has forced a number of nitrogen-fertilizer plants to halt or curtail production, including the likes of Norway’s Yara International ASA and top European chemicals company BASF SE. The gas makes up 80% of the cost to produce the nutrients and prices are four to five times higher than normal, according to industry group Fertilizers Europe.
Local farmers are already fretting about securing enough supplies for the spring. Any scarcity risks curbing grain yields and quality in the European Union, the world’s biggest wheat exporter and a major barley supplier. Any drops in output could add to concerns about rising food prices.
Ukraine’s Grain Exports up 19.3% Y/Y as of Oct. 29: Ministry
Ukraine’s grain exports have topped 19m tons, Agriculture Ministry says on its website.
- 12.2m tons of wheat, up 18% y/y;
- 4.4m tons of barley, up 30% y/y;
- 2.3m tons of corn, almost on par with last year
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: High demand boosts soy oil prices in Brazil
Soy oil prices have set new nominal records in the series of Cepea (since July 1998) this month. In real terms (monthly average deflated by the IGP-DI from Sept/21), the current price for soy oil is the highest in 12 months.
Soy oil prices have been on the rise in Brazil since 2020, more recently underpinned by higher demand, oil valuations and increases in the export premiums from Brazil. It is important to mention that the willingness of agents from the industry to pay higher prices for soybean depends on the revenue from sales of by-products, majorly soy oil and meal.
Although the share of biodiesel in diesel oil has fluctuated this year, the consumption of soy oil by the industrial segment surpassed consumption by the feed industry. According to the ANP, soy oil is the raw material used in around 70% of the biodiesel produced in Brazil.
SOYBEAN – The increase in the demand for soy oil limited soybean devaluations in Brazil. In general, price drops reflected higher domestic surplus and expectations for a record harvest in the 2021/22 world season. This week, Brazilian soybean farmers made higher volumes available in the spot market, boosting liquidity.
CORN/CEPEA: Downward trend of corn prices continues in Brazil
Brazilian purchasers have not been interested in buying corn in the national spot market, keeping pressure on values in most of the regions surveyed by Cepea.
These purchasers are aware of the slow export pace for corn, the good development of the summer crop in Brazil and the progress of the corn harvesting in the United States. Besides, these agents claim to have inventories. On the other hand, some sellers have been more willing to lower asking prices, since many of them still have the product stocked and need to sell it to receive the summer crop.
CROPS – Rains interleaved with sunny days are favoring sowing and raising expectations for a high output. In Paraná, sowing of the first 2021/22 crop (Summer crop) has reached 93% of the state area, according to data from Deral/Seab released on Oct. 25, against 88% in the previous week.
In Rio Grande do Sul, data from Emater indicate that 75% of the area allocated to the summer crop of corn had been sown until yesterday (Oct. 28). In central-western Brazil, sowing in Goiás had reached 15% of the state area until Oct. 23, according to Conab. In São Paulo and in Minas Gerais, activities had reached 55% and 10% of the respective areas until Oct. 25 (Conab).
Russian Wheat Exports Slowed Last Week, Down 14% Y/y: Agency
Wheat shipments for the 2021-22 season amounted to 15.3m tons as of Oct. 28, down 14% from a year earlier, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.
- That means wheat exports totaled about 600k tons in the week to Oct. 28, compared with about 1.1m tons a week earlier
- Exports of all grains are at 17.9m tons so far this season
- Barley exports declined 33% y/y, corn rose 8%
China’s Autumn Harvest Is Almost Completed
Weather in most Chinese agricultural areas will be sunny to cloudy through Tuesday, which is suitable for autumn harvest and planting, according to the National Meteorological Center.
- Most of autumn harvest in the north has been completed, with about 90% harvested in Jilin, Shaanxi and Shanxi, and 50% in Jiangsu
- About 70% of the country’s winter wheat and more than 80% of rapeseed have been planted as of Oct. 29
China’s Latest Crackdown Targets Binge Eating and Wasting Food
In its latest campaign to rein in excesses across all aspects of society, China is now targeting overindulgence of food.
Beijing released an action plan on Monday that tells diners not to order more than they need and encourages consumers to report restaurants for wasting food. It also advocates buffets for official receptions rather than banquets, while banning companies from hosting lavish feasts “in the name of meetings and trainings.”
The plan through 2025 follows calls by President Xi Jinping to reduce food waste and bolster food security. By tackling discarded leftovers, China could also reduce its dependence on imports and its vulnerability to disruptions. The effort comes as Chinese purchases of farm products from corn to wheat to beef have continued to grow year-on-year to record levels.
China is also facing soaring prices of some food items, such as vegetables, which threatens to become a broader inflation problem. The rally has caught the attention of regulators, with the agriculture ministry pledging last month to crack down on vegetable hoarding and to ensure stable supply. Egg and pork prices have risen as well.
Under the plan, catering services have to remind customers to order the right amount of food and to provide the option of smaller servings. Households are urged to purchase food on demand and to make “full use” of ingredients.
China to make protein for livestock from carbon monoxide
Chinese researchers say they have found a way to produce an animal feed protein from carbon monoxide in what is being hailed as a breakthrough that could help reduce the country’s reliance on huge volumes of imported soybeans.
The Feed Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) says it has worked with Beijing Shoulang Biological Technology to speed up a gas fermentation process to create a single cell protein that could be fed to animals, according to a report on Sunday on a website run by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
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