Global Ag News for Nov 19th
TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS, CATTLE ON FEED
Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/2 in HRW, up 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $0.07; Soyoil down 0.55.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/2 in HRW, down 24 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 1/2; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal up $0.77; Soyoil down 0.19. For the month to date wheat prices are up 47 1/4 in SRW, up 45 in HRW, down 11 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 11 3/4; Soymeal up $33.90; Soyoil down 2.42.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 3 yuan ; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil up 152; Corn up 17 — Malasyian Palm is down 5. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 5 ringgit (-0.10%) at 4993.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,083 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 18 were: SRW Wheat down 1,451 contracts, HRW Wheat up 73, Corn up 5,543, Soybeans up 4,373, Soymeal down 1,895, Soyoil up 1,804.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, below normal Monday. East: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday, below normal Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.
The player sheet for Nov. 18 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 7,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and unchanged in soyoil.
- CORN SALE: South Korea’s largest feedmaker, Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI), purchased around 69,000 tonnes of corn expected to be sourced from either South America or South Africa in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
- WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries(MAFF) bought a total of 121,805 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
- WHEAT SALE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 48,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender which closed on Thursday
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
- CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Incheon section purchased about 64,000 tonnes of animal feed corn which can be sourced from any worldwide origins in an international tender which closed on Friday
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat for supply to Ethiopia
- SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 115,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has issued an international tender to purchase around 320,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has issued an international tender to purchase about 385,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
U.S. Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country
- China bought 727k tons of the 1.37m tons of soybeans sold in the week
- Mexico was the top buyer of corn and Nigeria led in wheat
Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Nov. 18: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2021-22 Soybean planting advances to 28.6% complete from 18.8% in previous week
- Planting area held at 16.5m ha
- Corn planted est. held at 7.1m ha
IGC Cuts Global Wheat Stockpile and Production Estimates
Global wheat stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now seen at 274m tons, down from an October estimate of 276m tons, the London-based International Grains Council said Thursday in a report.
- Inventories in major exporters could be at a nine-year low, it said
- Wheat production estimate was lowered to 777m tons, from 781m tons
- Corn stockpiles estimate was raised to 287m tons, from 285m tons, and the production outlook was also increased
- Total grains stockpile estimate was kept at 600m tons
- The IGC trimmed the production figure, citing smaller wheat and barley output mainly in Iran and Algeria
French Soft-Wheat Sowing Almost Done, Ratings Top 2020: AgriMer
Soft-wheat planting was 93% complete in France as of Nov. 15, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.
- Compares with 87% in the prior week and 94% last year
- 99% of soft-wheat is in good or very good condition
- That’s the same as the prior week and compares with 95% last year
- Durum-wheat planting was 56% complete
- Compares with 38% the prior week and 72% last year
- Winter-barley planting was 97% complete
- Compares with 94% the prior week and 98% last year
- 99% of winter-barley is in good or very condition
- Compares with 99% the prior week and 95% last year
- French corn crop was 91% harvested
- Compares with 82% the prior week and 99% last year
Russian Wheat-Export Tax to Rise to $78.30/Ton Next Week
Russia’s wheat export customs duty will increase to $78.30/ton next week from $77.10, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website.
- NOTE: The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication
EPA’s Biofuel-Blending Delay Denies Clarity, Refiners Say
Refiners said the Biden administration’s decision to give them more time to prove they have fulfilled biofuel-blending requirements doesn’t provide enough clarity on the quotas themselves.
- “The extension is an indication that EPA is likely to use actual consumption for 2021” when it sets targets, said PBF Energy Inc.spokesman Michael C. Karlovich
- NOTE: EPA’s proposal gives refineries more time to submit proof they have hit annual 2019, 2020 and 2021 targets via renewable identification numbers, tradeable credits that track blending, but the agency has not yet proposed blending targets for 2021
- “Clarity about future obligations is needed in order for facilities to align around their individual compliance strategies,” but it’s important to realize “biofuel blending takes place in real time as gasoline and diesel are produced and sold throughout the year,” the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers said in an emailed statement
- Biofuel producers faulted the EPA plan and called on the agency to immediately set the 2021 and 2022 targets
- “There’s no good reason for EPA to kick the can down the road again, which only adds uncertainty and instability to the marketplace,” said Geoff Cooper, chief executive of the Renewable Fuels Association
- “We had hoped things would be different under this administration, but EPA continues to miss its deadlines and create confusion in the marketplace,” Cooper said
Storms at Canada’s Biggest Port Strand Grain in Prairies
- Flooding has blocked rail access to Port of Vancouver
- Grain companies look at declaring force majeure amid delays
Mountains of wheat and canola are stranded in Canada after storms blocked access to the Port of Vancouver during peak shipping season.
There’s no rail access to Canada’a biggest port after days of torrential rain and landslides. About 20 vessels are waiting for deliveries, while a couple hundred thousand tons of grain are stuck in transit, according to Quorum, a company that monitors Canada’s grain transportation system.
It’s so bad that some exporters may even be forced to declare force majeure to avoid penalties as they won’t be able to make deliveries on time, said Wade Sobkowich, executive director of the Western Grain Elevator Association.
The rail line outages may be resolved in coming weeks but the impacts of the stoppage will last for months, according to Greg Cherewyk, president of industry group Pulse Canada.
India’s Modi Says Government to Scrap Three New Farm Laws
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the government will scrap the three new farm laws that led to angry street protests by farmers’ groups over the last year.
The legislation will be withdrawn by the end of the month, Modi said in a televised address to the nation on Friday.
U.S. Grain Movement by Rail Fell 6.3% Week Ended Nov. 10: USDA
CME, B3 Launch Brazil’s Soybean Futures on November 29
CME and B3 will take another shot at the Brazilian soybean market with a new futures contract based on soybean prices in Brazil, according to a statement.
- New contract will start trading November 29 on the Chicago Board of Trade and Brazil’s stock exchange
- Contract developed in partnership with the CME group to try to capture more volume out of Brazil
- Benchmark will be export prices in Brazil’s Santos Port
- Most important changes are smaller size compared to the current contract and monthly liquidation in Brazil
- Each contract will have 34 tons and financial liquidation will be in U.S. dollars per ton, with two decimals, based on Platts assessment, according to B3
- Each tick size will be $6.80 per contract
- B3 will offer monthly expirations on the sixteenth day of the month prior to the reference month
Brazil’s Agriculture Is Losing Optimal Climate, Study Says
Global warming could be undermining Brazil’s agricultural prowess, already pushing 28% of farmland in the country’s breadbasket away from optimal climate range, according to a study by Woodwell Climate’s Scientist Ludmila Rattis. Brazil’s key crops of soybeans and corn depend on a stable climate, but changes in temperatures and precipitation along the country’s Cerrado-Amazon area, responsible for half of Brazilian agricultural output, threaten productivity. At current pace, 74% of the area will lose the optimal conditions by 2060, Rattis estimates. “Although agronomic adaptation strategies may relieve some of these impacts, maintaining native vegetation is a critical part of the solution for stabilizing the regional climate,” the study says.
Indonesia to Push Coal, Palm Oil Companies to Build Tree Nursery
Indonesia will push the companies to build tree nurseries for reforestation, said President Joko Widodo during visit to a nursery outside the capital Jakarta.
- Nursery in Rumpin, Bogor, produces 12m tree seedlings/year to be planted in areas prone to floods and landslides
- Govt to build 30 nurseries over the next 3 years
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