Global Ag News For Nov 19.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Floods delay Argentina soybean and corn planting

• Flooding leaves 1.5 million hectares at high risk of becoming unproductive
• Farmers unable to access or plant their crops
• Producers blame underinvestment in drainage and roads for worsened flood impact

Farmers in Argentina’s central Buenos Aires province are grappling with extensive flooding that is blocking access to their fields, delaying soybean and corn planting in one of the world’s top grain-exporting nations.

Farmer Alejandro Vallan typically oversees the planting of his crops in mid-November.

Instead, like many farmers in the area, he cannot reach his land because of widespread flooding and finds himself stranded at a flooded access road in the town of 12 de Octubre, in central Buenos Aires.

“What you see behind me is not a canal, but a road where we regularly travel, where a lot of producers travel,” Vallan, 43, said.

Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal and the third-largest exporter of corn. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projects soybean production to hit 48.5 million metric tons, down year over year, and corn production to reach 58 million tons in the current 2025/26 season, up from last year. The most recent estimates were released in late September, before the floods.

In the last four months, rainfall has been well above normal, leaving nearly 1.5 million hectares (3.7 million acres) of farmland at “very high risk” of becoming unproductive in central and western Buenos Aires, according to rural producers’ association Carbap.

The farmers’ biggest fear is that fields, currently turned into vast sheets of water, will remain idle for the rest of the season, Vallan said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil up 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 18 1/4 in SRW, up 11 1/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans up 23; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 2.02.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 1/2 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 1/8 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans up 32 1/4; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil up 3.44.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.8% in SRW, down 6.0% in HRW, down 2.7% in HRS; Corn is down 5.0%; Soybeans up 15.0%; Soymeal up 5.6%; Soyoil up 31.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans down 26 yuan; Soymeal down 26; Soyoil up 72; Palm oil up 158; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 17.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 17 ringgit (+0.40%) at 4226.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 124 Oats; 80 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 765 Soyoil; 338 Soymeal; 450 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 18 were: SRW Wheat down 5,204 contracts, HRW Wheat up 434, Corn up 5,489, Soybeans down 14,122, Soymeal down 4,093, Soyoil down 1,989.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 19 NOV 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warm weather will persist across the U.S. over the next 10 days. Moderate to heavy wet spells are expected across the U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with below-normal rainfall, while Central Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: France, U.K., and Eastern Europe are expected to experience above normal precipitation, while the rest of Europe will see cool weather during the 15-day outlook.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with mixed conditions in northern China. Above-normal rainfall is expected in southern India, South Korea, Japan, and parts of Southeast Asia.

 

WIDESPREAD WET SPELLS ACROSS U.S.; FLOOD RISK LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

What to Watch:

• Warm temperatures expected across most of the U.S.
• Flood risks in the Southern Plains

  

Northern Plains: Some showers will be possible through Wednesday with a couple systems passing nearby. The same goes for a couple of systems this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will likely take a massive dive around Thanksgiving or just after as a big cold pattern is on the horizon.

Central/Southern Plains: A system moved through the region on Monday but with limited showers across the north. A stronger system will move in on Wednesday with widespread rainfall through Friday. The rain will be welcome for winter wheat. Yet another system is forecast to move in early next week with more showers. Though temperatures are forecast to be quite warm into next week, a big change may come on or just after Thanksgiving with a bigger system and a massive cold burst.

Midwest: A system is bringing through scattered showers and a few thunderstorms on Tuesday. A much bigger system will move through Thursday and Friday with more widespread precipitation. Another system is forecast for early next week that could be the start of a much colder pattern going into December. The rain will improve soil moisture for winter wheat and could reduce some of the drought in the region before that, though.

Delta: Water levels continue to be low on the Mississippi River, causing transportation restrictions. A more active weather pattern is setting up for the rest of November, but that is unlikely to vastly improve water levels as drought surrounds the Delta region. This could be the start of a more favorable weather pattern for the winter, however.

Brazil: A front brought a wave of heavy rainfall over the last couple of days. The front is stalling out in the north and showers will slowly build there back to the south through central Brazil later this week and weekend. Fronts moving up from Argentina are less likely to have significant precipitation with them over southern Brazil, which may be on the precipice of some worsening conditions for corn and soybeans as we get into the heart of the growing season in December.

Argentina: A front moved through with widespread and mostly heavy precipitation over the weekend, which has continued to keep soil moisture high for early this growing season. However, this may be the last front that produces this type of widespread precipitation for a while. A front will move through Thursday into Friday, but is expected to have only patchy showers. The same goes for another next week. Soil conditions are currently favorable, but we may start to see those slowly decline over the next few weeks if these fronts do not produce ample precipitation.

Europe: Scattered showers continue across much of the continent going into next week. Temperatures are falling and some of these showers will fall as snow, which could be heavy later this week and weekend from Austria into southern Poland. Winter wheat that normally goes dormant over the winter will start on that journey for the rest of this month, particularly across the north.

Black Sea: A couple of systems will move through this week, but are forecast to produce limited showers, mostly across Ukraine and northwestern Russia. Dryness in southwestern Russia is still a major issue for the winter wheat crop. The region will need an active winter to have good wheat prospects for next year. Above-normal temperatures continue to delay the onset of dormancy across the north.

Australia: Soil moisture conditions are still largely mixed across the country. Showers will favor western areas this week while eastern areas are forecast to be much drier. With winter wheat and canola continuing to mature and harvest increasing, rain is less likely to be beneficial for those crops. After the harvest, cotton and sorghum planting will begin, but they need more rainfall.

 

The player sheet for 11/18 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 792,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Tuesday seeking up to 69,000 tons.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has started buying animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday with an initial 130,000 to 135,000 metric tons initially bought, European traders said. The tender seeks up to 210,000 tons for February 2026 arrival and negotiations about more purchases continue.
• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase an estimated 78,744 tons of rice to be sourced from China, Thailand and also from unrestricted optional origins.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in the international tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice was estimated at $354.19 a ton CIF liner out.
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Nov. 14 are based on four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.091m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.44m bbl vs 22.219m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 8.1%

October placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 2.08m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.

• Estimates range from -10.7% to -4.5% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of Nov. 1 seen falling by 2.3% y/y to 11.69m head
• Marketings seen falling 7.1% y/y

 

CFTC/COT Catch-Up Report Schedule

The CFTC will resume publication of the Commitments of Traders reports in chronological order.

 

China Books More US Soy Cargoes as Trade Slowly Gains Momentum

China has booked at least another ten cargoes of US soybeans, lifting total purchases so far this season to more than 2 million tons and pushing Beijing slowly toward the target apparently agreed during trade talks late last month.

State-owned agriculture trader Cofco Group secured the shipments for loading this year and into early 2026, according to people familiar with the matter. The sales will be from US Gulf and Pacific Northwest ports, the people said, asking not to be identified as they’re not authorized to speak publicly.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed a trade truce in October, a rapprochement that prompted China to end its long pause on US soybean purchases. However, Beijing will need to keep buying at a steady pace to get even close to the goal apparently agreed by the two sides — despite its plentiful stockpiles and the higher cost of US beans.

According to the US, Beijing has pledged to buy at least 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, with volumes expected to increase to at least 25 million tons annually over the next three years. China has not confirmed the commitment, though it has reduced tariffs on the crop.

Cofco did not immediately respond to Bloomberg queries.

Chicago soybean futures rallied to their highest levels in 17 months earlier this week amid optimism that China will uphold the truce, before paring some of those gains. Some traders have pointed to the high cost of the US trade and the fact that deals have been driven by state entities, rather than commercial demand.

 

Brazil 2026 Soy Production Seen at Record 177.7m Tons: Abiove

Brazilian 2026 soybean production is seen at a record 177.7 million tons, compared with 172.1m this year, industry group Abiove says in a statement.

• Exports estimated at 111m tons, up from 109m tons in 2025
• Soybean crushers to process 60.5m tons next year, up from 58.5m tons
• Despite growth in processing and exports, Brazil’s soybean ending stocks seen rising to 10.6m tons, from 6.9m tons in 2025
• Soymeal output expected to rise 3%, to 46.6m tons
  • Soymeal ending stocks to jump 37%, to 6.3m tons
• Soyoil production seen up 4% to 12.2m tons
• NOTE: Abiove’s forecasts are for the calendar year, from January through December

 

Brazil soy exporters profit more as futures rise, US and China trade resumes

An association representing Brazilian soybean companies estimated $60.25 billion in revenues from the export of soybeans and by-products in 2026, a significant jump from last month’s projection.

In a statement on Tuesday, oilseeds industry group Abiove said the figure represents a $5 billion jump from last month’s projection and reflects a rise in soy prices.

Abiove’s new projection indicates Brazil will continue to play a leading role in global markets, sending millions of tons of soy to key clients in China for local processing and soymeal to the European Union to use as livestock feed.

Since the release of Abiove’s previous estimate on October 22, soybean futures have risen 10% in Chicago amid expectations that China would resume purchases of large U.S. soybean volumes. China bought at least 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans on Monday, its largest purchase since at least January, traders said.

Chicago soybean futures rose slightly on Tuesday to reach their highest level since June 2024, still supported by China’s hefty purchases of U.S. beans.

Abiove, which represents a number of companies including Bunge, Cargill, and Cofco, also raised its 2025 export revenue projection for the sale of soybean and by-products in world markets, now estimating sales of $53.3 billion, a rise of $3 billion from the previous month’s estimate.

Through the end of October, Abiove projected an average soybean price of $415/ton in 2026 and $380/ton in 2025. Now it projects $450/ton and $400/ton respectively, according to the fresh estimates.

Soybeans represent the bulk of projected revenues, with shipments estimated at almost $50 billion next year, when Brazil is expected to reap a record soy crop of almost 178 million metric tons.

 

Argentina soy production slightly down as planting season begins amid volatile weather

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 46.9 [45.7–48.1] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is fractionally (<1%) lowered to 46.9 [45.7–48.1] million tons, as volatile temperature/precipitation patterns continue to dominate a majority of producing regions in the central Pampas, causing early season sowing delays. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.7 million hectares, slightly above 16.4 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario, but below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 17.6 million hectares. In November’s WASDE (released on 14 November), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in September.

Weather conditions across the main Pampas region have been highly variable from late October through early November. Persistent rains affected central and southern Buenos Aires, while the northern half of the Pampas largely remained dry under generally cool temperatures in late October. Over the past two weeks wet weather spread throughout the northeastern Pampas as well, but dryness returned to core crop areas of Córdoba and areas to the west, accompanied by warmer weather. The soil moisture levels are overall still excessive in many key producing areas of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and La Pampa (which collectively account for more than 90% of Argentina’s total soy production), but drier weather is expected at least through next week, which should provide some relief to the wet soils. Temperature patterns are likely to remain volatile through the end of the month, warranting attention.

Soybean planting is nationally 15% complete so far according to the Ministry of Agriculture (MinAgri), behind last year’s 25%. The Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos also reported a soybean sowing progress of 12.9%, largely behind schedule. In Argentina early soy planting typically ends in December, but second crop soybean (otherwise known as double crop soybeans) planting can occur until early January once wheat is harvested. The planting windows for soybeans are narrower than those for corn, which makes November-December weather conditions crucial especially regarding the sowing sequence/pace. According to the LSEG Weather Research team’s latest December-February ENSO analysis, the La Niña event is forecast to prevail through the end of the year and may not completely dissipate by early next year, which can be a critical factor in determining final yield. La Niña conditions are most frequently associated with hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region. The current overall healthy soil moisture conditions should provide some decent buffer against it early in the season, but could start depleting quickly, warranting attention.

 

Healthy soil moisture conditions bode well for Paraguay soy production potential

2025/26 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 10.8 [10.2–11.4] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Paraguay soybean production is nearly unchanged at 10.8 [10.2–11.4] million tons, as the current healthy soil moisture conditions and positive short-term weather outlooks continue to support high yield expectations, though some local excessive moisture risks across key crop areas of the southeastern Oriental Region warrant attention. Our median production estimate is slightly below the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 11.0 million tons, which assumes national level area and yield at 3.8 million hectares and 2.89 tons per hectare (tph), respectively (vs. LSEG Agriculture Research’s 3.71 million hectares and 2.91 tph, respectively).

 

Ukraine will not limit wheat exports in 2025/26, says deputy minister

Ukraine will not restrict wheat exports in the 2025/26 July-June season due to a higher harvest and lower export rates at the beginning of the current season, deputy economy minister told Reuters on Wednesday.

Ukraine, one of the world’s leading wheat producers and exporters, has been restricting wheat exports over the past few seasons to prevent a rise in bread prices.

“We do not plan to impose any restrictions on wheat exports this season. The harvest is higher than last year, and export rates are lower,” said Taras Vysotskiy.

“According to our estimates, the wheat harvest will be around 23 million (metric) tons, and exports are expected to reach around 17 million tons (in the 2025/26 season),” he said.

Ukraine harvested 22.6 million tons of wheat in 2024 and exported 15.7 million tons of the commodity in 2024/25.

The economy ministry data showed that the country had exported 6.8 million tons of wheat so far this season versus 8.6 million at the same period a season earlier

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.