Global Ag News for Nov 18th
TODAY – EXPORT SALES
Wheat prices overnight are up 13 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 13 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $0.36; Soyoil up 0.44.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 1/2 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans up 40 1/4; Soymeal up $1.56; Soyoil up 0.78. For the month to date wheat prices are up 61 in SRW, up 57 in HRW, up 10 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 35; Soymeal up $41.80; Soyoil down 1.45.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 2 yuan ; Soymeal up 25; Soyoil up 76; Palm oil up 116; Corn down 2 — Malasyian Palm is up 99. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 99 ringgit (+2.02%) at 4998 on expectations that Malaysian stockpiles will shrink this month as exports expand and output declines.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 2 Corn; 1,083 Soybeans; 233 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 108 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 17 were: SRW Wheat up 2,868 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,755, Corn up 12,695, Soybeans up 13,190, Soymeal down 428, Soyoil up 5,024.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday. East: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures well above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.
The player sheet for Nov. 17 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,500 corn, buyers of 17,500 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT SALE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), on Wednesday said it had bought 60,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat in an international tender for shipment Jan. 1- 15, 2022.
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
- CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Busan section purchased about 64,000 tonnes of corn from optional origins in an international tender for up to 138,000 tonnes that closed on Wednesday
- CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) Incheon section purchased an estimated 66,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
- SOYOIL SALE: The USDA confirmed private sales of 30,000 tonnes of U.S. soybean oil to India for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
- WHEAT SALES: Algeria is set to take a substantial amount of Russian wheat in an import purchase of between 700,000 and 800,000 tonnes, after the country changed tender terms to reduce its reliance on French supplies
- FEED WHEAT SALE: An importer group in the Philippines is believed to have bought an estimated 220,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat in a tender which closed on Wednesday
- WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase about 385,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday
- WHEAT SALE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 48,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The United Nations agency issued an international tender to purchase about 110,000 tonnes of milling wheat for supply to Ethiopia
- SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued international tenders to purchase around 115,000 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically modified organisms
- . Deadline for price offers is Nov. 18.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 121,805 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Nov. 18.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- BARLEY TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board, TMO, has issued an international tender to purchase around 320,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase and import 6,000 tonnes of crude sunflower oil
- WHEAT TENDER: An Ethiopian government agency issued a new international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
- Corn est. range 750k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 988k
- Soybean est. range 1,000k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,294k
DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.0% to 20.081M Bbl
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 20.441 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.06m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.058m
Egypt’s Wheat Purchases Are Running 28% Behind Last Year
Egypt’s state buyer bought 60,000 tons of Romanian wheat in a tender on Wednesday, putting its total purchases for the 2021-22 season about 28% below a similar time last year.
Key highlights of the tender:
- The purchase increases Romania’s share of sales in Egyptian tenders to about 45% this season.
- Still, it was Egypt’s smallest overall purchase in more than three months.
- The state buyer paid $371.97 a ton, the most since at least early 2016.
Ukraine not planning new wheat exports curbs for now, says minister
By mid-November, the Black Sea country had shipped 52% of an annual export volume agreed last month with the grain sector of 25.3 million tonnes for the 2021/22 (July/June) season, Kachka said on the sidelines of the Global Grain conference in Geneva.
- Ukraine traditionally exports wheat mostly in the first half of the season before its pace of exports falls sharply when exporters turn to other origins.
- “The calendar of shipping is changing due to demand but we are not worried,” said Kachka, who is also deputy minister for economic development and trade.
- When the volume of the export quota is about to be reached the government can start considering export limits but Ukraine would prefer not to restrict exports unlike Russia, which has imposed an export tax, he said.
- The government could clear extra exports of 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes and could use public stocks before considering imposing export restrictions, he said.
Iraq warns of 2 mln tonnes deficit in local wheat production
Iraq’s agriculture ministry warned of a two million tonnes deficit in wheat production this year amid a water shortage, the state news agency reported on Wednesday.
“The water problem and the lack of funds reduced the agricultural plan by 50%,” it quoted the Minister of Agriculture, Muhammad Karim al-Khafaji, as saying.
Canada Grain Shippers See ‘Significant’ Impact From Rail Washout
The impact of the washout of rail links following British Columbia rainstorms “is expected to be significant and will have a cascading effect,” says Wade Sobkowich, executive director of the Western Grain Elevator Association.
- There will be vessel delays when freight rates and demurrage are at a high point, says association that represents major shippers including Viterra Inc. and Richardson International
- “We have to hope that the railways can get their assessments done, get the re-building done, and are back up and running sooner rather than later,” Sobkowich says
- CN and CP have to complete their inspections and identify time line for bringing lines back into operation
Farmers in Argentina have sold 34.1 million tonnes of 2020/21 soybeans
Argentine farmers have sold 34.1 million tonnes of soybeans from the 2020/21 season, the Agriculture Ministry said on Wednesday in a report that included data updated through Nov. 10.
Sales were behind that of the previous season. At this time last year sales of 35.1 million tonnes of the oilseed had been registered, according to official data.
Foreign exchange from agricultural exports is essential for Argentina’s battered economy, which is only now beginning to grow after more than two years of stagflation exacerbated in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Russia Selling More Wheat to Algeria as Specifications Ease: FSI
- Algeria is becoming a promising new market for Russian grain as tender specifications turn more favorable, Yulia Koroleva, director of Russia’s FSI Center of Grain Quality Assurance, says at the Global Grain Geneva conference.
- This week, traders may have sold about 250k tons of Russian wheat for December
Russian Wheat Crop May Reach 84M Tons in 2022: Ministry
Russia may harvest 123m to 126m tons of grain in 2022, Dmitry Aveltsov, head of Agriculture Ministry’s research center said Thursday during the Crop Production Russia conference.
- Wheat crop may reach 75m tons to 84m tons
- The forecast is wide as depends on many factors
IKAR Forecasts Russian 2022 Wheat Output at 79M Tons: Interfax
Russia’s wheat crop for 2022 is seen at 79m tons, Dmitry Rylko, director general at consultant IKAR in Moscow said at a conference, according to Interfax.
- NOTE: At the end of October he raised his forecast for 2021 to 75m-75.6m tons
- Total grain harvest for 2022 is seen at 125m tons
Kazakhstan Harvest Done With Farmers Reaping 16.4m Tons of Grain
The harvest suffered from unfavorable weather conditions and the average grain yield was 10.3 centners/hectare, Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Ministry in a statement on its website.
- NOTE: 1 centner is equivalent to 100kg
- NOTE: Kazakhstan harvested 20.1m tons of grain in 2020, according to ministry figures
Strategie Cuts European Wheat-Export Outlook on More Competition
The outlook for European wheat exports was cut by 1.6m tons as supplies lose competitiveness against grain from Argentina and Ukraine, France-based consultant Strategie Grains said in a report.
Malaysia Keeps Crude Palm Oil Export Duty at 8% for December
Gazetted price for crude palm oil at 5,119.75 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 8%, according to a statement from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.
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