Global Ag News for Nov 17.23
Western Australia’s Wheat Outlook Cut Again as Harvest Ramps Up
Western Australia’s grain association has cut its forecast for the state’s wheat production again due to hot weather, with most of the overall grains harvest expected to be finished by the end of December.
The majority of wheat crops have suffered from drier conditions and yields have been coming in lower than anticipated at the start of harvest, according to a monthly report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. The state is the nation’s biggest exporter of the food staple.
The gathering of grains across the state is scheduled to be completed several weeks earlier than normal, and barley has been a standout crop so far, the association said. Overall, the lack of spring rain shortened the season and severely limited the potential of any crops that were later emerging.
Australia was baked by dry weather over September and October, and the onset of El Niño is expected to extend the warmer conditions into next year. The Australian government will provide forecasts on the nation’s overall grain production early next month, including wheat and canola.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil up 0.43.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 3/4 in SRW, down 16 3/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 13; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal up $13.20; Soyoil up 0.55.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 in SRW, down 6 1/2 in HRW, up 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 48 1/4; Soymeal up $30.20; Soyoil up 0.44.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 30.1% in SRW, down 29.6% in HRW, down 22.7% in HRS; Corn is down 30.2%; Soybeans down 10.7%; Soymeal down 2.6%; Soyoil down 18.6%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans up 39 yuan; Soymeal down 60; Soyoil down 124; Palm oil down 104; Corn down 4 — Malaysian Palm is down 68. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 68 ringgit (-1.70%) at 3930.
There were changes in registrations (-75 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,950 SRW Wheat contracts; 594 Oats; 4 Corn; 596 Soybeans; 62 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 400 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 16 were: SRW Wheat up 1,212 contracts, HRW Wheat up 817, Corn down 7,430, Soybeans down 1,140, Soymeal up 4,509, Soyoil down 2,839.
Brazil: Heavy rain continues over southern areas while central areas have been very dry with temperatures near or above 100 F. The same pattern continues the next few days, which is unfavorable for most areas. Dryness and heat in the Central will continue to overly stress developing soybeans and cause a need for replanting while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern will start to change this weekend as a system in the south shifts into central states. This will cause more typical wet season showers in central Brazil, though they may not be long-lasting. Heavy rain is still forecast to occur at times in the south.
Argentina: Scattered showers will move through the country over the next couple of weeks, bringing decent rainfall to much of the country’s growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and northwestern growing areas still have larger deficits, but most of the country has seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.
Northern Plains: It will be windy Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. A system will track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Cooler temperatures will follow it next week, perhaps significantly so.
Central/Southern Plains: Most areas will stay dry even though a cold front will drop into the region Thursday and Friday. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to much of the region, helping winter wheat. Cold temperatures will follow the system though, which could be significantly cold. Models are still trying to decide that fate.
Midwest: A front moving through Thursday and Friday will bring some rain to eastern areas while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. But a system moving through early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region and temperatures are forecast to fall more significantly thereafter.
The player sheet for Nov. 16 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 9,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 4,000 soyoil.
- SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 220,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2023/24 marketing year.
- MILLING WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries bought a total of 104,677 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
- FEED WHEAT SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) on Thursday purchased around 50,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from east Europe
- DURUM TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 25,000 metric tons of durum wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Nov. 21.
US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country
The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 9, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Top buyer of soybeans: China with 2.61m tons
- Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 1.06m tons
- Top buyer of wheat: Unknown Buyers with 58k tons
US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Nov. 9, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Mexico bought 8.5k tons of the 24.7k tons of pork sold in the week
- South Korea led in beef purchases
Argentina Farmers Boost Soy Acreage After Drought Curbed Corn
Farmers will grow 17.3m hectares (~43m acres) of soybeans this season, 200,000 hectares more than first estimated, after a drought impeded some planting of early-corn and sunflowers, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.
- Rains since the end of October have paved the way for soy fieldwork
- Soy planting progress 18%
- Corn area cut by 200,000 hectares to 7.1m ha
- Wheat harvest forecast cut 4.5% to 14.7m metric tons
Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Nov. 16: Exchange
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.
- 2023-24 wheat production est. lowered to 14.7m tons from 15.4m tons
- 2023-24 corn planted area est. lowered to 7.1m ha from 7.3m ha
- 2023-24 soybean planted area est. raised to 17.3m ha from 17.1m ha
World Grain Stockpiles Estimate Boosted on Corn: IGC
World grain stockpiles at the end of the 2023-24 season are now seen at 585m tons vs an October estimate of 582m tons, the International Grains Council said in a report.
- Corn stockpile estimate increased to 285m tons from 283m tons
- Wheat stockpile estimate rose slightly to 264m tons
- Soybean, rice stockpiles kept steady
Strategie Raises EU Wheat Crop Est.; Potential Surplus in France
This season’s EU soft-wheat production is now seen at 125.8m tons, up slightly from last month’s estimate, analysis firm Strategie Grains said in a report.
- The crop estimate for corn was raised as the harvest draws to a close, despite rain hindering work in France
- The balance sheet for soft wheat currently shows “a situation of near equilibrium for 2023-24,” with smaller imports helping supply and demand to return to balance
- Sees potential wheat and barley surpluses in France and Germany
- Expects French wheat and barley prices to ease moderately
Brazil 2023/24 Wheat Crop Seen at 9.28 Million Tns – StoneX
- BRAZIL 2023/24 WHEAT CROP SEEN AT 9.28 MILLION TNS VERSUS 10.53 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
- BRAZIL 2023/24 WHEAT IMPORTS SEEN AT 6.15 MILLION TNS VERSUS 4.89 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE
Brazil exported over 5.5 million tons of soybeans in October
Brazilian agribusiness exports reached $13.38 billion in October, 2.3% lower than in the same period of 2022. The figure represented 45.4% of Brazil’s total exports.
According to the Department of Trade and International Relations of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (SCRI/Mapa), the result of foreign sales for the month was strongly affected by the pullback in the price index of exported products. On the other hand, a record grain harvest in 2022/2023 boosted the country’s exports.
Soybeans, corn and sugar are the products that deserve attention this month.
Soybean exports reached a record volume for October at 5.53 million tons. This shipped quantity is nearly 45.7% higher than the quantity exported in the same month of October last year. China’s share of the purchase of Brazil’s exported beans rose to nearly 88% of the exports for the same period last year. Foreign sales of soybeans reached $2.89 billion in October 2023, up 24%.
Corn shipments were a record for October, reaching 8.44 million tons in October 2023, or 24.5% more than the 6.78 million tons exported in the same month of the previous year. Overseas corn sales totaled $1.89 billion, nearly identical to October 2022.
In October, China was the leading importing country of Brazilian corn with a 40.9% share of the volume exported by Brazil (3.46 million tons) or $765.77 million.
In addition, between January and October 2023, Brazilian agribusiness foreign sales reached a record $139.58 billion, up 3% compared to the same period in 2022 ($135.55 billion).
The sector that contributed most to the positive export performance during this period was the soy complex (+4.37 billion USD).
Strong 2023/24 U.S. Corn Consumption for Ethanol – Refinitiv Commodities Research
2023/24 U.S. CORN CONSUMPTION FOR ETHANOL: 5,464.4 MILLION BUSHELS, UP 3% FROM LAST UPDATE
Amid the anticipated record corn harvest in the U.S. for the 2023/23 season projected by Refinitiv, the ethanol industry is experiencing a remarkable surge in profitability. Ethanol margins have soared to an average of $1.19 per gallon, particularly in key production regions like the Corn Belt. In response to this favorable market environment, the 2023/24 Corn Consumption for Ethanol has witnessed its strongest start in the last 9 years, totaling 932.4 million bushels. This figure stands at 11.6% above the long-term average, reflecting the robust demand for corn in ethanol production.
Despite a slight dip in October at 419.6 thousand bushels, down from 512.8 thousand bushels in September, this represents a notable increase compared to 408.4 thousand bushels in October 2022. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on November 01 that ethanol stocks were at 21,012 thousand barrels, 2.2% below the average, marking the lowest stocks report in 2023. This signals a substantial uptick in ethanol demand, further reinforcing the industry’s current buoyancy.
Analyzing market indicators, Refinitiv Agriculture Research has revised its projection for the 2023/24 U.S. corn consumption for ethanol to 5,464.4 million bushels. This upward adjustment represents an increase of 159.8 million bushels from the previous update and is 139.4 million bushels above the USDA’s November estimate. These revisions underscore the robust outlook for ethanol consumption, reaffirming the ethanol industry’s strong position and positive momentum in the market.
India Oct. Oilmeals Exports Fall to 289,931 Tons
India’s oilmeals exports fell to 289,931 tons in October from 330,568 tons in September, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.
- Rapeseed meal exports fell to 169,422 tons from 189,213 tons in September
- Soymeal exports fell to 87,060 tons from 105,535 tons in September
- Castorseed meal exports fell to 31,469 tons from 35,306 tons in September
Grain exports on Russian Railways network jump 80% to 18.9 mln t in Jan-Oct
Grain shipments for export along the network of Russian Railways (RZD) surged 80% year-on-year to 18.9 million tonnes in the first ten months of 2023, the company reported.
Shipments through stations at ports jumped 120% to 12 million tonnes and shipments through border crossings rose 40% to 6.9 million tonnes.
Overall grain loading on the RZD network increased by 41.2% to 26.4 million tonnes in the ten months, including 37% to 2.3 million tonnes in Kursk Region, 43.3% to 2.2 million tonnes in Stavropol Territory, 60% to 2.1 million tonnes in Saratov Region, 70% to 2 million tonnes in Volgograd Region and 70% to 1.8 million tonnes in Lipetsk Region.
Russian farmers shipped 3.2 million tonnes of grain by railway in October alone, 29.7% more than a year earlier, RZD said.
Parts of river Rhine in south Germany closed to shipping
Parts of the river Rhine in south Germany remain closed to shipping on Friday after a rise in water levels following heavy rain this week, German authorities said on Friday.
Rhine river shipping has been stopped around Maxau in south Germany since Wednesday night, the WSA inland waterways navigation agency said.
High water means vessels do not have enough space to sail under bridges and the blockage prevents vessels sailing to Switzerland.
Water levels are falling and the river may reopen later on Friday, a WSA spokesperson said. But continued rain means the fall is not as fast as hoped and a precise forecast for reopening is not possible, he said.
Central and northern sections of the river were still open to shipping.
The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities including minerals, coal, grains, animal feed and oil products such as heating oil.
The Rhine has repeatedly suffered from low water levels because of unusually dry summers in recent years.
US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending Nov. 14: USDA
The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending Nov. 14, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.
- Winter wheat experiencing moderate to intense drought rose to 44% from 42%
- Drought exposure at this time last year was 75%
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