Global Ag News for Nov 17.22
Jordan to Boost Grain Storage by a Third in Food-Security Push
Jordan has started a project to build 50 grain silos with total capacity of 500k tons, as part of country’s strategy to boost reserves and improve food security, according to an official at the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
- Will be complete by end of 2023, financed by $200m loan from Islamic Development Bank
- Country’s wheat and barley storage capacity will rise to 2.2m tons, from current 1.7m tons, when complete
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 19 1/2 in SRW, down 8 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans down 10 1/4; Soymeal down $0.11; Soyoil down 1.09.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 17 1/2 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, up 9 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans down 31; Soymeal down $0.07; Soyoil down 3.53.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 81 1/2 in SRW, down 37 in HRW, down 22 in HRS; Corn is down 39 1/4; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal down $16.20; Soyoil up 0.40.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4% in SRW, up 18% in HRW, down -2% in HRS; Corn is up 11%; Soybeans up 7%; Soymeal down -1%; Soyoil up 30%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans down 20 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil down 68; Palm oil down 226; Corn down 15 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 160 ringgit (-4.01%) at 3828.
There were changes in registrations (-50 Soybeans). Registration total: 3,056 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 126 Soybeans; 39 Soyoil; 278 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 16 were: SRW Wheat down 5,515 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,855, Corn down 773, Soybeans down 4,484, Soymeal down 2,036, Soyoil down 7,412.
Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.
Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires: Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.
Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated snow through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.
Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated snow showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.
Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered snow showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday.
Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Lake-effect snow Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal through Sunday. Outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.
The player sheet for Nov. 16 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 8,000 soyoil.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, is believed to have bought 300,000 tonnes of Russian wheat via private talks
- BARLEY IMPORTS: Japan will import 220 tonnes of feed-quality barley for livestock use via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said.
- NO PURCHASE IN BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,500 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States, European traders said. The deadline for submissions was Nov. 9.
- FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 94,687 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Nov. 17.
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Nov. 10.
- Corn est. range 700k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 963k
- Soybean est. range 900k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,288k
DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 4.0% to 21.298M Bbl
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 22.318 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.011m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.047m
Brazil’s Amaggi has sold more than half of its 2022/23 soybean crop, executive says
Amaggi, one of Brazil’s largest agribusiness conglomerates, has already sold nearly 60% of the soybean it expects to harvest in 2022/23, a level exceeding the average of most farmers as it pushes for a “conservative strategy” matching grain sales and input purchases.
The pace of privately owned Amaggi’s forward sales so far has been roughly twice the average seen in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top grain producing state and where most of the company’s agricultural operations are located.
When compared to the whole country, Amaggi’s sales have exceeded the Brazilian average by 40 percentage points, according to consultancy Datagro.
“We sell to cover costs,” Amaggi’s director of agricultural operations, Pedro Valente, said in an interview. “Historically we are in line with what we do every year. But that is not always in line with what the market is doing.”
Valente said that Amaggi’s goal was to make sure it could control costs by selling grains at the “best moments.”
The company, owned by the family of former Agriculture Minister Blairo Maggi, also processes and trades grains, with worldwide sales reaching 18 million tonnes per year. It has offices in Argentina, Paraguay, China, Singapore and the Netherlands.
Amaggi expects its 2022/23 grain crop – comprising soybean, corn and cotton – to reach a total 1.55 million tonnes, up 30.6% from the previous season, while the planted area was seen growing 5.6% to 381,154 hectares.
Valente said the company initially planned to keep its soybean area at the same 175,000 hectares (432,430 acres) planted last season, but later decided to cut it to 170,600 hectares (421,560 acres) and plant more cotton, the crop seen by the company as its most important.
Cotton 2022/23 forward sales have also reached nearly 60% so far, Valente said, while those of corn were at 35%.
Ukraine Grain, Oilseed Crop Seen at 55-60m Tons if War Endures
“Next year, if we continue to have a war, we will produce 55-60m tons of grain and oilseeds per year,” Nikolay Gorbachov, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, says at Global Grain Geneva conference.
- Many farmers don’t break even on grain sales: Gorbachov
- NOTE: This time last year, Ukraine estimated that 2021 grain harvest would reach record 80.3m tons
- Farmers reduced wheat planting area 40%; last year 6.5m hectares were planted, now there are 3.7m
- For corn, planting area may be 3m hectares in a pessimistic scenario, down from 5m
- On UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal, Gorbachov expects a new agreement and “we’ll add an additional port of Mykolaiv”
Malaysia’s Oct exports up 15% on-year, below forecast
Malaysia’s exports rose 15% in October from a year earlier, below expectations, government data showed on Thursday.
October’s exports had been forecast to rise 24.1%, according to the median estimate of 15 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll.
Imports in October grew 29.2%, data from the International Trade and Industry Ministry showed. Analysts had expected an increase of 30.5%.
Malaysia recorded a trade surplus of 18.09 billion ringgit ($3.98 billion) in October.
EU to End Season With Comfortable Wheat Reserves, Strategie Says
EU wheat stockpiles should end the 2022-23 season at a “very comfortable” level, analysts at Strategie Grains said in an emailed report.
- Largest supplies will be in eastern Europe, as east EU countries have not had strong exports so far this season
- That’s due to fierce competition with Russian and Ukrainian supply
- EU corn supplies should also be in “equilibrium,” as large imports from Brazil and Ukraine help offset the drought-hit local crop
Ukraine Says Grain Deal Will Be Extended for 120 Days
- Ukrainian minister says agreement reached in Istanbul
- Wheat prices decline, easing pressure on global food costs
A United Nations-brokered deal allowing exports of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea is set to be extended for 120 days, according to Ukraine, easing pressure on global food prices.
Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Facebook the decision was just made in Istanbul, where talks have been held. The UN welcomed the “agreement by all parties.” There was no immediate comment from Moscow, and Russian news agency Tass said talks were continuing.
Wheat prices fell 1.6% as the deal facilitates exports from a major food growing region.
Ukraine still wants the deal extended by a whole year, and with one more port added to the accord, Kubrakov said. He said they are still waiting for a response.
The original pact, struck in late July revived seaborne exports from Ukraine after Russia blockaded the country’s ports following its invasion. It was brokered by Turkey and the UN with Ukraine and Russia and signed for an initial 120 days, which are due to run out Saturday. The deal provides for automatic extension for another 120 days unless one of the parties decides to pull out or modify it.
Ukraine — a major exporter to the world — has shipped more than 10 million tons of crops through the Black Sea since the deal came into force, led by corn and wheat cargoes. The grain has headed across Asia, Europe and Africa, including some cargoes chartered by the World Food Programme.
Last month, Russia briefly suspended its participation, but after the UN, Turkey and Ukraine vowed to continue anyway, started observing it again.
President Vladimir Putin had complained that the deal didn’t do enough to ease exports of Russian grains and fertilizer, even though they aren’t subject to sanctions and shipment volumes rose.
The UN said it is “fully committed to removing the remaining obstacles to exporting food and fertilizers from the Russian Federation.”
Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 31% Y/y in Season Through Nov. 16
Ukraine’s grain exports during the season that began July 1 came to 15.6m tons as of Nov. 16, down 31% y/y, the country’s agriculture ministry says on its website.
- Total includes:
- Almost 6m tons of wheat, down 56% y/y
- 1.28m tons of barley, down 73% y/y
- 8.25m tons of corn, double a year earlier
- NOTE: Data may include grain that is aimed for exports, but hasn’t left the country yet
India Oct. Oilmeals Exports Fall to 213,154 Tons
India’s oilmeals exports fell to 213,154 tons in October from 240,669 tons in September, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.
- Rapeseed meal exports fell to 98,571 tons from 163,089 tons in September
- Soymeal exports rose to 40,196 tons from 13,718 tons in September
- Rice-bran extract exports fell to 34,305 tons from 36,492 tons in September
- Castorseed meal exports were 35,484 tons
Russia Poised to Export 42m Tons of Wheat in 2022-23: Vicorus
Russia is headed for total wheat exports of 42m tons this season, Andrei Roubailo, senior broker at Vicorus, says at the Global Grain Geneva conference.
- Russia wheat exports may total as much as 5.2m tons in November, he said
- Some companies and banks refuse to trade or finance Russian grain
- Payments and compliance issues remain for some transactions, with payments getting stuck for 2-3 weeks because of issues with correspondent banks: Vicorus
- Freight is still an issue, although situation has improved
Fertilizer Supply Growth Ebbs as Costs Sap Farmers’ Cash
Stubbornly high fertilizer expenses are sapping farmers’ cash, threatening to limit increases in crop output at a time of soaring food demand, and growers are unlikely to get relief soon. The market for ammonia, a key crop nutrient, will probably stay tight until at least the middle of the decade as expensive natural gas keeps production off-line, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Jason Miner and Alexis Maxwell said in a note Wednesday. Reduced fertilizer exports from Russia and China also threaten to roil farmers’ costs in 2023, they said.
US Autumn Fertilizer Application Slows with Winter Weather
Farmers in the US Corn Belt were focused on applying fertilizers in mid-November, but winter weather stalled activity in northern areas of the Midwest. Ammonia continued to move to the field in other locations, along with potash and phosphates. CF is canceling its ammonia contract with Mosaic to capture higher prices.
US Nitrogen, Potash Prices Decline
Urea, potash and other fertilizer prices continued to drop in the US as winter weather slowed fall application in some areas. Midweek New Orleans (NOLA) urea was down $5 a short ton (st) vs. last week, while some inland terminals showed a $15-$20/st drop. The softer urea market pushed urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices down $20-$25/st in Oklahoma, with ammonium sulfate also under pressure in the Northern Plains. NOLA potash dropped another $5-$10/st, with declines of $25/st or more reported at some inland warehouses. More than 2 million metric tons (mt) were offered in the latest India urea tender, with the lowest prices at $573-$579/mt vs. the previous tender’s $649-$655.
Farm Income Expected to Decline Next Year
Farm incomes are projected to fall in 2023 as declining grain prices meet increasing costs, researchers from Ohio State University say in a report. They project average income of $81K per farm next year, down from a projected $350K in 2022, which is $96K lower than 2021. The estimate uses prices at $5.50 a bushel for corn and $13 a bushel for soybeans, noting they are high for historical standards but lower than 2022 prices. The researchers add that income well above historical levels in the recent past allowed farmers to build equipment and financial reserves to withstand low incomes that will inevitably happen sometime in the future.
EBRD Pledges EU300M To Bolster Ukraine Crop Exports By Land
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is investing EU300 million in so-called solidarity lanes to help Ukraine ship agricultural commodities via neighboring nations.
“These serve as alternatives to routes via the Black Sea ports, which have been partially reopened, but which are not operating at full pre-war capacity”: statement
Investment will go toward boosting infrastructure including road and rail, in countries such as Moldova, Poland and Romania
Argentina soybean production down despite recent beneficial rainfall across the Pampas
2022/23 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 47.8 [44.6–50.9] MILLION TONS, DOWN 2% FROM LAST UPDATE
2022/23 Argentina soybean production is lowered by 2% to 47.8 [44.6–50.9] million tons amid a historic drought and planting delays throughout the main Pampas, despite recent beneficial rains that brought some relief to key crop areas. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.9 million hectares, slightly above 16.7 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires, but below the Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario’s 17.1 million hectares. In November’s WASDE (09 November), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 49.5 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 51 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario both currently forecast production at 48 million tons.
Argentina’s core Pampas region welcomed long awaited rains during the first half of November, after an extreme drought period that lasted more than 5 months since May. Northern Buenos Aires, western Córdoba and southern Santa Fe – where more than half of the country’s total soy is grown – finally received some meaningful precipitation over the past two weeks, totaling 20-50 mm throughout. The total amount of the drought relieving early November rain was far from sufficient, however, barely above normal, not enough to recharge soil moisture storage and restore adequate planting conditions. Most key producing provinces are still showing at least five-year low soil moisture levels, and the dire conditions will likely get worse as there appears to be no end in sight to dryness following the short period of wetness early November.
First crop soybean planting normally begins late October/early November, but no detailed progress estimates are available yet as delays remain severe. In Argentina early planting typically starts in late October and ends in December, but second crop soybean (otherwise known as double crop soybeans) planting can occur until January once wheat is harvested. The planting windows for soybeans are narrower than those for corn, which makes November-December weather conditions crucial especially regarding the soy planting sequence/pace. The latest ENSO outlook (by Refinitiv Weather Research) suggests that the current La Niña event is forecast to last through the end of the year and may not completely dissipate by early next year, warranting close attention, as La Niña conditions are most frequently associated with hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region.
Tyson Foods ends COVID-19 vaccine mandate for employees
Tyson Foods Inc confirmed on Wednesday it eliminated a requirement that employees receive COVID-19 vaccinations, a step the company said improved meatpacking operations after plants closed in 2020 due to outbreaks among workers early in the pandemic.
The biggest U.S. meat company by sales lifted the mandate on Oct. 31, one year after imposing it, according to a report Tyson filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. The requirement “generally improved our ability to operate our business effectively in fiscal 2022,” the report said.
The virus now presents a lower threat than when Tyson decided in August 2021 to require that employees be vaccinated by that November, company spokesman Derek Burleson told Reuters on Wednesday.
“The risk of severe infection has decreased significantly, with many resources readily available including vaccines and boosters, testing, and improved treatment options,” Burleson said.
America’s largest meatpacking union, the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, said it negotiated an agreement with Arkansas-based Tyson to end the mandate.
Tyson “worked to get the unions’ support to end the requirement, which was achieved,” Burleson said. He added that Tyson kept other safety protocols like requiring workers to self-screen for COVID-19 symptoms.
Some Tyson workers remain worried about catching COVID-19 in chicken plants, said Magaly Licolli, director of Venceremos, an organization that advocates for poultry workers in Arkansas.
“There is still the pandemic,” said Licolli, who has criticized Tyson for not protecting plant employees. “Workers are getting sick over and over of COVID.”
Tyson runs slaughterhouses in rural areas where some residents were reluctant to get vaccinated. The company said last year it paid employees $200 to get vaccinated and also compensated workers if they were vaccinated outside normal work hours or away from a Tyson location.
Claudia Coplein, Tyson’s chief medical officer, said in August 2021: “Getting vaccinated against COVID-19 is the single most effective thing we can do to protect our team members, their families and their communities.”
Brazil corn ethanol producer FS expands freight contract with Rumo
Brazilian corn ethanol producer FS and railway operator Rumo SA RAIL3.SA reached an agreement to expand the volume of biofuel transported, company executives said on Wednesday.
With the deal, FS will transport out of Mato Grosso state 75 million liters of ethanol per month, compared to 50 million liters previously. The biofuel producer will also purchase 80 rail cars for 115 million reais ($21.35 million) to handle the additional volume.
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