Global Ag News for Nov 13.23

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina raises biofuel prices in domestic market

Argentina’s government has raised the price of bioethanol, made from sugar cane or corn, and biodiesel for domestic use, according to two resolutions published on Monday in the Official Gazette.

The energy secretariat said the new price for sugar cane-based bioethanol will be 310 pesos per liter (about $0.89), while for corn-based bioethanol it will be 303 pesos per liter (about $0.87).

The government also raised the price of biodiesel to 520,000 pesos per ton (about $1,485.71), from 434,006 pesos per ton previously.

The new prices will apply “for operations to be carried out in the course of November 2023 and until the publication of a new price replaces it,” the statement added.

The South American country is battling triple-digit inflation.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 3 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 11; Soymeal down $6.10; Soyoil up 0.72.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 9 3/4; Soybeans up 24 1/4; Soymeal up $12.70; Soyoil up 0.87.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 3/4 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 20 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans up 61; Soymeal up $29.70; Soyoil up 0.59.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 27.3% in SRW, down 27.9% in HRW, down 22.2% in HRS; Corn is down 30.2%; Soybeans down 9.9%; Soymeal down 3.5%; Soyoil down 17.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans up 24 yuan; Soymeal up 48; Soyoil up 56; Palm oil up 14; Corn up 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 103. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 103 ringgit (+2.71%) at 3905.

There were changes in registrations (92 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,950 SRW Wheat contracts; 607 Oats; 4 Corn; 651 Soybeans; 62 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 400 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 13 were: SRW Wheat up 9,821 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,596, Corn up 6,621, Soybeans up 3,191, Soymeal up 13,025, Soyoil up 6,367.

Brazil: Heavy rain fell over southern areas this weekend while central areas were almost completely dry while temperatures soared above 100F. The same pattern continues this week, which is unfavorable for most areas. Dryness and heat in the Central will continue to overly stress developing soybeans while wetness across the south will cause flooding and associated issues for developing corn and soybeans. The pattern may start to change this weekend or early next week as a system in the south shifts into central states.

Argentina: Scattered showers fell over the weekend as a system went through, though some areas in the northwest missed out. Several more systems will move through this week and weekend, making for occasional areas of showers that will move through and bring decent rainfall to much of the country’s growing areas. The country is still recovering from drought and those northwestern growing areas are the furthest behind in rainfall, but most areas have seen a positive turnaround in growing conditions in recent weeks.

Northern Plains: Warmer and drier conditions over the weekend will continue for most of the week, favoring the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A system is likely to track to the south this weekend, but could spread precipitation into the region, which may be a wintry mix in some areas. Active and cooler weather is likely to continue next week as well.

Central/Southern Plains: A streak of showers went through on Saturday but most areas were dry this weekend as temperatures rose. Most areas will stay dry this week even though a cold front will drop into the region later this week. A system is likely to move out of the Southwest and into the region this weekend, which should bring scattered showers to much of the region, helping winter wheat. A messy and likely active pattern is expected to follow behind it for Thanksgiving week which could mean a wintry mix of precipitation types depending on the setup. Cooler temperatures are more likely as well, especially farther north.

Western Midwest: Some isolated showers went through northwestern areas over the weekend but most areas stayed dry while temperatures rose. Warm temperatures and dry conditions for most of the week should lead to good conditions for the remaining harvest and fieldwork. A front moving through late week could bring some rain to some areas, mostly east, while bringing a brief shot of some cooler air as well. But a system moving through this weekend or early next week would be more likely to spread precipitation across the region. A more active and cooler pattern is likely to follow it for Thanksgiving week.

The player sheet for Nov. 13 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 9,000 corn, buyers of 13,500 soybeans, and buyers of 8,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday confirmed private sales of 204,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday confirmed private sales of 143,637 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year.
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 180,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is looking to buy a total of 104,677 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said that it will seek 60,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 20,000 tons of feed barley, to be loaded by Jan. 31 and arrive in Japan by Feb. 29, via a simultaneous buy and sell auction that will be held on Nov. 15.

TODAY

 US Inspected 609k Tons of Corn for Export, 1.666m of Soybeans

In week ending Nov. 9, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 207k tons vs 114k the previous wk, 170k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 1,666k tons vs 2,183k the previous wk, 2,030k a yr ago
• Corn: 609k tons vs 575k the previous wk, 536k a yr ago

AgRural lowers forecast for Brazil soy crop, sees new cuts ahead

Agribusiness consultancy AgRural has lowered its forecast for Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop due to irregular rainfall and a heatwave affecting top grain producing state Mato Grosso, it said in a statement on Monday.

AgRural said it now expects the country’s soybean output to hit 163.5 million metric tons this season, down from an October forecast of 164.6 million tons, and added that new cuts were possible before the end of this month depending on the weather.

Brazil’s weather agency Inmet last week issued a heatwave warning, as forecasts indicated temperatures could be 5 degrees Celsius above average for a period of two to three consecutive days in center-western and southeastern Brazil.

AgRural said the hot, dry weather has been affecting the initial growth stage in areas planted more recently while also hurting fields where activity is more advanced, already flowering and forming pods.

“The need for replanting continues to increase in the state,” the consultancy said, noting the weather was also a concern for farmers in other center-western states as well as in northern, northeastern and southeastern Brazil.

AgRural said soybean planting has reached 61% of the expected areas as of last Thursday, up 10 percentage points from last week but below the 69% seen a year ago. It is still the slowest sowing pace since 2020/21, it noted.

The consultancy also reported that farmers in center-south Brazil have planted 76% of the area expected for their first 2024 corn crop, up from 66% a week ago and above the 70% registered a year earlier.

Brazil 2023/24 Soy Planting 61% Done as of Nov. 9: Agrural

Soybean planting is 61% complete as of Nov. 9, compared to 51% in prior week and 69% a year earlier, according to an emailed report from AgRural consulting firm.

• AgRural cut its forecast for Mato Grosso state’s output by 1.1 million tons due to the continued irregularity of rainfall and a new heat wave
  • Brazil’s production estimate cut to 163.5 million metric tons from 164.6 million tons estimated at the end of October
• 2023/24 summer corn planting in Brazil’s Center-South region is 76% complete, versus 66% a week earlier and 70% a year before

WHEAT/CEPEA: Projections confirm weather impacts on both production and quality in BR

The impacts of unfavorable weather conditions on wheat crops in Southern Brazil have been confirmed by official estimates released this month. In world terms, projections also indicate supply decreases.

According to a report released by Conab last week, the new wheat crop in Brazil may total 9.63 million tons, for a decrease of 7.9% compared to the report released in October and 8.7% less than the record registered last crop (10.55 million tons). This scenario is verified despite the area increase of 12.1% in relation to the previous season, to 3.46 million hectares. Therefore, the lower production is related to the productivity decrease, estimated at 2.78 tons per hectare, downing 7.9% against last month report and 18.6% below that verified in 2022 (3.42 tons per hectare) – data from Conab.

Imports, in turn, are estimated by Conab at 5.4 million tons for the period from August 2023 to July 2024 (+400 thousand tons). The domestic availability dropped 2.6% compared to the previous report and is forecast at 15.7 million tons between August/23 and July/24, for a decrease of 0.1% against last season.

The consumption remains estimated by Conab at 12.64 million tons, 2% higher than the estimate for the previous season (from August/22 to July/23). Exports continue forecast at 2.6 million tons. As a result, ending stocks, by July/24, would be reduced to 531.9 thousand tons, downing 28.2%in relation to the crop before.

In global terms, the USDA indicates a production decrease, now forecast at 781.98 million tons, 0.2% less compared to that estimated in October and 1% below the season before.

PRICES – Wheat values have been increasing significantly in Brazil, boosted by the production decrease and the low quality, which can affect the production of high-quality wheat flour. Between November 3 and 10, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) in Paraná upped 8.45%, 2.62% in Santa Catarina and 3.24% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose 3.18% in São Paulo, 10.55% in Paraná, 6.06% in RS and 5.01% in Santa Catarina.

CROPS – Conab says that the harvest reached 71.8% in Brazil until November 4, and activities need to be finished in the South of the country.

Analysts see El Nino to support CPO prices

Analysts have foreseen El Nino weather pattern to support crude palm oil (CPO) prices.

UOB KayHian said in a note on Tuesday that it expects CPO prices to trade between 3,800 ringgit (805 U.S. dollars) to 4,200 ringgit (890 dollars) per ton from December 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.

“This projection is influenced by the intensifying El Nino phenomenon and the constrained supply of alternative vegetable oils,” said the research house.

UOB also maintained CPO price assumptions at 4,000 ringgit ton and 4,200 ringgit ton for 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Maybank Investment Bank said in a note on Monday that it raised its 2023/2024 CPO average selling price (ASP) forecasts by 100 ringgit and 200 ringgit to 3,800 ringgit per ton and 3,700 ringgit from its previous forecast.

According to Maybank, a mild El Nino thus far in 2023 may result in a lower-than-anticipated palm oil output in 2024.

MIDF Research said in a note on Tuesday that it forecasts that average local CPO delivery prices to close by 1.7 percent month on month higher to 3,702 ringgit per ton in November, as it tweaked its monthly CPO pricing model assumption due to the delayed arrival of El Nino.

“We anticipate normal production level to remain in the first quarter of 2023, but would gradually decline in drier months in the second quarter of 2024. Hence, this would usher CPO price to hinge on a high side in the first half of 2024,” said the research house.

Ukraine Issues Export Licenses for Agriculture Producers

The Ukrainian government cleared 959 agriculture companies to export products, the Agriculture Ministry says on its website.

The list includes vegetable oil and seeds producers Kernel, MHP, Nibulon, Astarta, and Ukrainian operations of Viterra, Louis Dreyfus, Soufflet, Delta Wilmar, Cargill and others

France Raises Corn Crop Outlook, Soft Wheat Steady: Ministry

This year’s corn harvest is now seen at 12.5 million tons, up from an October estimate of 12.1m tons, the French agriculture ministry said in a report.

• Ministry said rain weather benefited yields of non-irrigated crops
• Production expected to be 6% below the prior five-year average; crop last year was 11m tons
• Soft-wheat crop estimate remained steady at 35.1m tons
• Barley lowered to 12.2m tons from 12.3m tons
• Rapeseed seen steady at 4.3m tons

China Halts Fertilizer Exports as Supply Dwindles

China’s suspension of phosphate and urea exports — aimed at cooling prices and ensuring domestic stockpiles — will push buyers to compete elsewhere in 1H for lost tons. In response to phosphate inventories falling close to 2015’s record low and a price spread that encouraged selling abroad, China’s NRDC indicated to producers last week that phosphate exports were halted. The policy replaces a quota system that allowed exports throughout 2023. China represents 30% of global phosphate exports and is the marginal producer and swing supplier. Domestic Chinese prices traded below global levels in 2Q-3Q, and 3Q phosphate exports surged to 5.1 million metric tons through September, up 24% from the previous year.

Wengfu Group is China’s largest phosphate producer. Mosaic is its largest publicly traded peer.

 

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