Global Ag News for Nov 10.22

TOP HEADLINES

Western Australia Wheat Crop Inches Closer to Record, Group Says

Mild spring conditions have delayed the start of the harvest in Western Australia but driven expectations for another record year of production in the key growing state, according to the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia.

  • Wheat production is expected to rise to 12.6 million tons in 2022, compared with previous prediction of 12.1m tons and 12.89m in 2021
  • Still, rainfall across central and southern areas over the last two weeks has further slowed the harvest and is “now beginning to cause trouble with lodging, head loss and expected downgrades in quality if the rain persists”
    • Severe storms across central regions in the last few days have further added to delay
    • Grain loss from hail across the central and southern regions in past fortnight is starting to add up, but is not expected to impact the total tonnage from hitting record
  • Canola is “absolute standout” mostly due to the good early start and slow finish
  • Very little crop has been harvested to date for this time of the year in Western Australia
  • 2022 crop estimates in November forecast:
    • Wheat: 12.6m tons, +4.6% from Oct.
    • Barley: 6.15m tons, +1.7%
    • Canola: 4m tons, +4.5%
    • Oats: 565,000 tons, no change

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 3/4 in SRW, down 1 3/4 in HRW, down 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $0.21; Soyoil up 0.13.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 44 in SRW, down 25 in HRW, down 16 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/2; Soybeans down 12; Soymeal down $0.49; Soyoil down 1.50.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 78 1/2 in SRW, down 50 1/2 in HRW, down 39 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 28; Soybeans up 30 3/4; Soymeal down $12.60; Soyoil up 2.46.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 4% in SRW, up 16% in HRW, down -4% in HRS; Corn is up 12%; Soybeans up 10%; Soymeal up 1%; Soyoil up 34%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 23) Soybeans up 101 yuan; Soymeal up 39; Soyoil down 120; Palm oil down 150; Corn down 7 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 18 ringgit (-0.43%) at 4180.

There were changes in registrations (-44 Soybeans). Registration total: 3,077 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 291 Soybeans; 39 Soyoil; 278 Soymeal; 5 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of November 9 were: SRW Wheat up 2,059 contracts, HRW Wheat up 504, Corn down 3,554, Soybeans down 1,275, Soymeal up 351, Soyoil up 4,177.

Northern Plains Forecast: Snow Thursday-Friday. Isolated snow Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Thursday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated snow Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Friday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Friday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated snow north Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, below to well below normal Friday-Sunday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Friday.

The player sheet for Nov. 9 had funds: net sellers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

  • SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private U.S. soybean sales totaling 264,000 tonnes to China and 198,000 tonnes to unknown destinations, all for shipment in the 2022/23 marketing year.
  • CORN SALE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has bought about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender that closed on Wednesday
  • WHEAT SALE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have bought about 480,000 tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender on Tuesday
  • CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South America in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued
  • CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tonnes of animal feed corn
  • FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday it will seek 70,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 40,000 tonnes of feed barley via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Nov. 16.
  • FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines is tendering to purchase at least 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
  • WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s main state wheat buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO) said on Thursday it had issued an international tender to purchase 595,000 tonnes of whea

PENDING TENDERS

  • RICE TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 50,500 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States
  • WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 94,603 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Nov. 10.
  • MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
  • BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.
  • WHEAT TENDER: Iraq’s state grains buyer has issued a tender to buy a nominal 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from the United States only with a limited number of trading companies asked to offer, traders said.

Planet Earth

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Nov. 3.

  • Corn est. range 250k – 650k tons, with avg of 413k
  • Soybean est. range 600k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 844k

Wheat Demand Seen Waning as Prices Remain High: WASDE Takeaways

  • Still About Ukraine: A few hours before the USDA report came out, Russia moved to pull its troops out of Kherson. Wheat futures slumped on the news, which potentially clears the way for more crop shipments out of the Black Sea and could alleviate the pressure that pushed wheat prices to a record this year.
  • Demand Destruction: Those high prices are having an impact, with the USDA chopping wheat-import forecasts for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria. And while wheat prices have indeed moderated from the days after the Russian invasion, inflation is working its way through global food systems.
  • Corn Demand: WASDE unexpectedly left its projection for US corn exports unchanged, surprising analysts widely expecting a cut as a dry Mississippi River raises barge shipping costs and makes American grain overpriced in world markets. Look to future reports for the USDA to make a cut that would raise domestic stocks and perhaps cool prices.
  • Cotton: Supplies were bigger than expected, while world consumption missed expectations. That’s another one to watch going forward, with large clothing inventories and potentially disappointing holiday garment sales likely limiting demand in the medium term.
  • South America: The USDA was conservative in not making many changes for South American soy and grain production. While forecast rainfall in Brazil should help crops during planting, dry conditions in the region are one of the biggest swing factors for prices in the next few months, as crops grown there would come to the rescue of tight world markets by early 2023.

Brazil Soybean Crop Seen 17% Higher in 2022-23, Rabobank Says

Productivity is still uncertain due to the risk of La Nina potentially harming development of crops that are being planted, analyst Marcela Marini said during a press conference

  • Soybean production is expected to reach 148.8m metric tons vs 127.4m the previous year
  • Planted area seen increasing 3.9% yearly to 43.2m hectares
  • “Prices should remain high while there is still uncertainty about the crop in South America”
  • Corn output seen 10% higher in 2022-23, reaching 126.6m tons
  • An expected weakening of La Nina by early 2023 is seen favoring corn

Brazil’s Conab Boosts Soy Outlook as Farmers Expand Plantings

Soybean production in the world’s largest exporter seen at 153.54m tons, a record high, up from 152.35m tons last month as farmers seed a higher area than initially expected.

  • Estimate for 2023 exports raised to 96.5m tons from 95.9m tons on higher supplies
  • Planted area seen at 43.2m ha vs 42.9m ha in previous report
  • Seeding is complete in 48% of the area vs 53.5% a year earlier
    • Planting is delayed in Goias, Minas Gerais and Matopiba region, while it’s just started in Rio Grande do Sul
  • In top grower Mato Grosso, crops are developing well despite irregular rains
  • In neighbor Mato Grosso do Sul, this is one of the best crops in terms of germination in the past years, Conab says
  • In Parana, excessive precipitation and low temperatures disturb initial development
    • High soil moisture may help crops to face a drier period expected in the coming months as La Nina lingers
  • Conab raised 2022 exports estimate to 79.2m tons from 78.3m tons due to strong demand, high prices
  • Forecast for 2022 soy-meal and soy-oil shipments increased to 20m tons and 2.5m tons, respectively

China Seen Crushing 94 Million Tons of Soybeans in 2022: COFCO

Soybean crushing in the world’s biggest buyer is expected to increase this year from about 91m tons in 2021, according to Zhou Jishuai, a senior manager at COFCO Oils & Oilseeds, a subsidiary of COFCO Group.

  • China’s capacity has risen faster than soybean crushing growth, leading to oversupply in the domestic market, Zhou said at an online conference organized by the Dalian Commodity Exchange
    • Crushing margins have broadly been negative for a long time; losses were significant this year, quite unusual for the industry
    • The sector’s woes were due to rising import costs, the Covid situation, and some other factors, Zhou said
  • Demand for both oils and meals is expected to increase in China going forward, but the pace is likely to slow

Malaysia Oct. Palm Stockpiles +3.7% M/m to 2.4M Tons: MPOB

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, rose 3.7% to 2.4 million tons in October from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.

  • Palm oil exports +5.7% m/m to 1.5m tons
  • Imports -27.5% m/m to 18,513 tons
  • Crude palm oil production +2.4% m/m to 1.81m tons

 Argentina Doubles Corn Export Quota for 2023 Crop to 20m Tons

Argentina has raised the quota for the crop harvested next year to 20m metric tons, according to a note sent by the Agriculture Secretariat to exporters.

  • The previous quota was 10m tons
  • Traders have already registered 9m tons of the crop for export as farmers plant amid a drought

US Renewable Fuel Credit Jumps as Ethanol Blending Falls Short

The cost to comply with the US renewable fuel blending mandates surged to $9.30 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest level since June 2021, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

  • Cost is equivalent to around 22 cents a gallon, adding to pump prices that are unseasonably high
  • Ethanol RINs surged to $1.77 on Wednesday, highest since June 2021
    • Ethanol blending has increased this year due to regulatory push and economic incentives, but current blend rate is still short of the federal mandate for this year, causing the runup in credit value, according to analyst Matthew Blair of Tudor Pickering Holt & Co
    • D6 shortfall has led refiners to over-blend diesel to make up for D6, raising prices at the pump for consumers, Blair wrote in a note to clients last week
  • EPA is due to propose renewable volume obligations for 2023 on Nov. 30

Three vessels with over 21,000 tonnes of sunflower oil aboard leave Ukrainian ports

Three bulkers carrying sunflower oil departed Ukrainian ports on Wednesday under the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the Joint Coordination Center said.

“The Joint Coordination Center (JCC) reports that three vessels left Ukrainian ports today [on Wednesday] carrying a total of 21,610 metric tonnes of grain and other food products under the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” the center said.

Furthermore, nine inbound vessels transited the maritime humanitarian corridor under the Black Sea Grain Initiative heading towards Ukrainian ports, the JCC said.

There are currently 75 vessels waiting to move into Ukrainian ports with capacity to export approximately two million tons of grain and other food products, the center said. In addition, there are 11 loaded vessels waiting for inspection in Turkish territorial waters.

“As of 9 November, the total tonnage of grain and other foodstuffs exported from the three Ukrainian ports is 10,132,035 million metric tonnes. A total of 877 voyages (442 inbound and 435 outbound) have been enabled so far,” the JCC said.

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