Global Ag News for May 9.2025

TOP HEADLINES

 China’s April soybean imports hit decade-low as customs delays disrupt trade

• China’s April soybean imports hit a 10-year low
• Customs delays hit soybean crushing, tightening soymeal supplies
• China reduces purchases from the U.S.
• Brazil’s May exports may fall to 12.6 mln tons

China’s soybean imports plunged to a 10-year low in April as prolonged customs clearance delays and late Brazilian shipments caused by harvest slowdowns and logistics issues disrupted the usual flow of cargoes, traders and analysts say.

Total imports for the month reached 6.08 million metric tons, down 29.1% from the same period last year, marking the lowest level since 2015, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the General Administration of Customs.

The customs delays have severely strained China’s oilseed processing sector from April through early May, tightening soymeal supplies for its vast livestock industry.

Soybean cargoes now take 20-25 days to move from ports to crushing plants, up from the usual 7-10 days, according to four traders, who were granted anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue in China. “Crushing operations have taken a hit,” said one source.

By early May, several crushing plants in northern and northeastern China had to cut output or halt operations due to backlogs, a trader and analyst said, adding that some feed mills ran out of stock and turned to costly spot cargoes.

There has been no official acknowledgement of delays, which come amid the trade war between China and its second-largest soybean supplier. China’s customs did not immediately respond to faxed questions about the delay.

China’s benchmark Dalian soymeal futures briefly rallied in late April but have since retreated, with expectations of incoming Brazilian shipments putting pressure on prices.

While crushing activity is gradually recovering, market participants remain cautious about potential port congestion if delays persist.

From January to April, soybean arrivals totalled 23.19 million tons, reflecting a 14.6% decline from the 27.15 million tons recorded in the same period last year.

Soybean imports are expected to rebound sharply in May and June with some Chinese analysts and traders expecting monthly numbers around 11 million tons.

However, Brazil’s grain exporters association, Anec, said on Wednesday that total soybean exports could fall to 12.6 million tons in May, potentially limiting how much could be shipped to China.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil up 0.22.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 1/2 in SRW, down 13 3/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans down 11 3/4; Soymeal down $3.00; Soyoil down 0.76.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 1 3/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 23 3/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil down 0.30.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 7.0% in SRW, down 8.1% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 3.9%; Soybeans up 3.8%; Soymeal down 6.2%; Soyoil up 20.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 6 yuan; Soymeal up 1; Soyoil up 66; Palm oil up 76; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 14.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 14 ringgit (+0.37%) at 3815.

There were changes in registrations (-163 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 259 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 135 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 986 Soyoil; 783 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 8 were: SRW Wheat up 5,561 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,002, Corn up 26,996, Soybeans up 5,894, Soymeal up 8,048, Soyoil up 3,551.

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 09 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: The EC sub-seasonal forecast suggests favorable warm/dry conditions for the plantings until the end of May across the U.S. Corn Belt
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dryness will expand across all 2nd corn areas in Brazil throughout the next 15 days, with rains limited to far southern and northern territories of the country
• AUSTRALIA: There should be no disruptions for the winter wheat/rapeseed plantings in western and southern Australia, as inactive weather should last until late May at least
• EUROPE: In mid-May, a major cyclonic activity will be observed only across the Mediterranean area, leaving Western and Central Europe under a dry weather regime

U.S. SPRING CROP AREAS UNLIKELY TO SEE SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVEMENT IN MAY

What to Watch:

• The precipitation forecasts remain pessimistic on soil moisture improvement across crop areas in U.S. for most of May
• Mild temperatures and dry conditions will support rapid planting pace across the U.S. Corn Belt
• Soil moisture conditions are likely to improve in Canada, as widespread rains are expected in the next week across the Prairies

 FORECAST

DISCUSSION:

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is likely to remain in a positive-neutral phase over the next 10 days, supporting warm conditions in Canada/North U.S. and cool in South U.S. The upper-level trough from the north will remain in retreated position over the next 7 days but is likely to become expansive in the second part of next week.

 Model performance:

The GFS outperforms the EC on temperature for the U.S. Plains/Midwest 10-day forecast, while the models perform similar on precipitation. The recent trend suggests low confidence in the forecast.

 Weather:

Warm conditions should prevail until early next week across Canadian Prairies, Northern Plains and Western Midwest, with temperatures 6-15 °F/3-7 °C above normal. At the same time, relatively cool weather will span the southern and eastern U.S. (1-5 °F/1-3 °C below normal).

The outlook will change by mid next week, as slightly cooler than normal conditions are likely to expand across Western U.S. and parts of the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, while warmth will shift toward the Midwest, Northeast and Southeast U.S.

As for precipitation, the main activity will move to the U.S. East Coast over the next few days, with severe storms expected in the Southeast U.S. (torrential rains exceeding 100 mm above normal across Florida). Still, dry conditions will continue across Plains and Western Midwest throughout the next 10 days (deficits 15-30 mm below normal). In Canada, a major front zone will sweep the country next week, providing 20-40 mm rainfall surpluses.

For late May, the latest sub-seasonal models indicate near-normal temperatures with split rainfall pattern – dry in the north and wet in the south.

 Crop impact:

The upcoming weather will support spring crop planting progress. However, the dominance of dry conditions in May across the central/northern U.S. will maintain low soil moisture levels, and only the Canadian crop area should record improvement in the next week.

The player sheet for 5/8 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 12,500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 225,000 metric tons of soybeans to Pakistan for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year that begins September 1, 2025.
• CORN SALES: The USDA confirmed private sales of 205,000 tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 40,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began September 1, 2024, and the remaining 165,000 tons for delivery in 2025/26.
• CORN SALES: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 115,000 tons of U.S. corn to undisclosed destinations for 2024/25 delivery.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 99,200 tons of milling wheat sourced from the U.S. in a tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased about 65,000 to 70,000 tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 67,000 tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Thursday expected to be sourced from South America only
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: South Korean import group the Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 60,000 tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender.
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: A Syrian state grains agency is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender seeking 100,000 tons of milling wheat that closed in April.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending May 1, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 164k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 339k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Unknown Buyers with 177k tons

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following table shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending May 1, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 9.9k tons of the 24.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

Canada Wheat Stocks on March 31 Fell 1.2% From Year Ago

Stocks of Canadian wheat as of March 31 fell to 15.42m tons vs 15.6m in the same period last year, according to Statistics Canada.

• Durum wheat rose to 2m tons vs. 1.95m
• Canola fell to 5.87m tons vs 9.58m in the same period last year

Bourse Hikes Argentina Soy Estimate 2.9% as Harvest Gathers Pace

Better-than-expected yields on soy farms across the Pampas growing belt leads Buenos Aires Grain Exchange analysts to raise their production estimate to 50m metric tons from 48.6m, they said in a weekly report.

Soy harvesting progressed 21 percentage points over the last week to reach 45% completion

 Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates May 8: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 soybean production raised by 1.4m tons to 50m tons
• Soybean harvest advanced to 44.9% complete vs 23.6% in the previous week

China April Imports: Customs

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• Soybean imports in April 6.081m tons
  • Soybean imports YTD fell 14.6% y/y to 23.19m tons
• Edible vegetable oil imports in April 481,000 tons
  • Edible vegetable oil imports YTD fell 11.8% y/y to 2.029m tons
• Meat (including offal) imports in April 513,000 tons
  • Meat (including offal) imports YTD fell 2.9% y/y to 2.159m tons
• Fertilizer exports in April 2.537m tons
  • Fertilizer exports YTD rose 37.5% y/y to 9.694m tons

U.S. SOYBEAN PURCHASES DECLINE

While Friday’s data does not distinguish imports by country of origin, purchases from the U.S. have continued to decline, said Wang Wenshen, an analyst at Shandong-based Sublime China Information.

As of the week ending May 1, net soybean sales to China for the 2024/25 marketing year were zero, weekly United States Department of Agriculture data showed.

Beijing’s 125% retaliatory tariff would virtually halt U.S. soybean imports if no agreement is reached before the marketing season later this year.

All eyes are on the upcoming meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials in Switzerland, where U.S. President Donald Trump expects progress on trade and the potential reduction of the 145% U.S. tariff on China.

China lifts suspension on five Brazilian soy exporters ahead of Lula visit

• China resumes Brazilian soy imports from five firms
• Suspensions were due to phytosanitary issues
• Move comes ahead of Lula’s state visit

China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has lifted restrictions for Brazilian soybean shipments from five firms previously suspended over phytosanitary concerns, the Brazilian government confirmed on Thursday.

Earlier, Reuters reported, citing a source familiar with the matter and Chinese customs data, that China had resumed imports from the firms.

“The decision was made after technical understandings between the health authorities of Brazil and China,” Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said in a statement.

Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, and the top supplier to China as the trade war drives Beijing to diversify away from the U.S., its second-largest supplier.

The source had said that the resumption of supplies began on April 25, weeks ahead of a planned state visit to China by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and at a time when China is trying to marshal a global coalition against the U.S. trade war.

Reuters reported in January that China had suspended imports from related entities of Terra Roxa Comercio de Cereais, Olam Brasil, C.Vale Cooperativa Agroindustrial, Cargill Agricola S.A., and ADM do Brasil. Global giants like Cargill have many subsidiaries licensed to export to China.

Brazil said at the time it intended to raise the issue with Beijing and its agriculture ministry last month provided officials there with information about the suspended firms.

According to a Chinese customs database, all entities with the exact names of the five firms currently hold “normal” registration status.

The database does not specify the resumption date, and Reuters was unable to verify their prior status.

ADM do Brasil parent Archer-Daniels-Midland Co, Cargill Inc – the privately-held U.S. grain trading giant and parent of Cargill Agricola SA – Terra Roxa Comercio de Cereais and the parent firms of the other two affected companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

China’s GACC and the Brazilian Embassy also did not respond to requests for comment.

China, which purchases more than 60% of globally traded soybeans, sources over 70% of its imports from Brazil -further eroding U.S. market share.

In 2024, China imported a record 105.03 million metric tons of soybeans, with more than 74 million tons coming from Brazil. Brazil’s bumper harvest is expected to bolster China’s soybean imports to a record high in the second quarter.

China Said Seeking Argentina Crops as It Skirts US Tariffs

China signed a letter of intent with exporters in Argentina to buy about $900 million of soybeans, corn and vegetable oil, the latest indication that the Asian nation will avoid sourcing from the US during President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Chinese officials were in Buenos Aires on Wednesday to sign the non-binding agreement, according to two people familiar with the matter who couldn’t be named discussing private talks. Argentina newspaper Clarin first reported the news.

A delegation from China Council for the promotion of International Trade visited Argentina on May 7, and met with officials in charge of international trade and agriculture markets from the South American country, according to a statement published on the website of the government trade body on Thursday.

Chinese delegates also had discussions with business representatives in Argentina, on topics including promoting bilateral economic development and safeguarding free trade. The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding, the statement said, without providing further details.

China is already Argentina’s biggest buyer of unprocessed soybeans. It buys some Argentine soy oil and it also opened its doors last year to the country’s corn.

Still, Argentina is a minor supplier of crops to China, and hasn’t exported any soybean to the world’s largest market since January this year. Corn shipments remain zero, according to Chinese customs data.

While not the first of its kind, such a large upfront commitment by China for Argentine crops is unusual. And its arrival amid an escalating trade war is a sign that China is prepared to keep tariffs on the US in place — in retaliation against Trump’s duties — and instead source crops from South America.

The Buenos Aires press office for Chinese trading house Cofco International Ltd. said in a statement Thursday that it reached an understanding with Sinograin, the state company in charge of managing China’s strategic food reserves, “to extend the supply of agriculture commodities from Argentina to China and explore further long-term cooperation.”

Separately, China’s Fufeng Group Ltd. is interested in building a corn-processing plant, the Argentine Rural Society said in a post on X last month.

China issues disaster prevention and mitigation plan to ensure stable grain harvest

China has recently issued a disaster prevention and mitigation plan to ensure a stable grain harvest, urging major efforts in response to drought, high temperatures and heat damage, national broadcaster CCTV reported Thursday.

The plan, jointly issued by four government departments, laid out five tasks for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation during the flood season which also demands work against flooding and waterlogging, typhoon, as well as pests.

The plan came as multiple areas across the country, including China’s Henan province, which produces about one-third of China’s wheat, are battling a protracted period of drought.

China on Tuesday also sent out warning of severe drought conditions in regions like northwest China’s Shaanxi, Jiangsu in the east and Guangxi in the southwestern part of the country.

A National Climate Center forecaster Gao Hui said drought is affecting wheat fields in several northern regions in China with insufficient irrigation, a report from state media Xinhua said.

In some regions in southwestern China like Guangxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan, rice transplanting is lagging behind compared to last year due to drought which has also led to uneven growth of some plants, Xinhua said.

While rainfall is expected in some parts of China this week, meteorologists warned about sudden shifts between drought and flooding, as well as adverse effects of rainy and wet weather on wheat drying and harvesting.

China was the world’s top wheat importer in 2022 and 2023, but imports plummeted last year. A reduction in wheat output could prompt the Asian nation to boost imports again to make up for the shortfall.

Ukraine 2025 spring grain sowing 76% complete, ministry says

Ukrainian farmers had sown 4.23 million hectares of grain as of May 8, or 76% of the expected area, almost the same acreage as was sown at the same date last year, the agriculture ministry said on Friday.

The area included 733,400 hectares of spring barley, 212,600 hectares of spring wheat, 2.9 million hectares of corn, 209,000 hectares of peas and 157,000 hectares of oats and some other cereals, the ministry said.

Ukraine’s state agricultural meteorologists said this month that strong and prolonged frosts followed by unusually high temperatures and a lack of precipitation in April had a negative impact on development of Ukrainian spring crops.

The future harvest depends to a significant extent on the plants having enough moisture for germination and further growth.

Western Australia Wheat Plantings Outlook Cut on Dryness: GIWA

Farmers in Western Australia are set to plant 4.07 million hectares of wheat for the 2025-26 season, down from an April outlook of 4.19 million hectares, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said in a report on Friday.

• The total estimated crop area for Western Australia is slightly down from last month’s report due to persistent dry conditions in the top third of the state’s grain growing regions, GIWA said
• Barley plantings are seen at 1.92 million hectares, versus last month’s estimate of 1.87 million hectares
• Canola plantings outlook was cut to 1.73 million hectares, from 1.78 million hectares

French Soft-Wheat Conditions Steady; Corn Planting Accelerates

Some 74% of France’s soft-wheat crop was rated in good or very good condition as of May 5, steady from the previous week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• NOTE: After a cold snap, temperatures are expected to rise over the weekend with some rain in the west and southwest: Meteo France.
• Corn planting was 79% complete, versus 62% the prior week and 53% last year

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 780k tons in the week ending May 3 from 670k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 28.6% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 14.3% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $14.64 per short ton, an increase of $0.64 from the previous week

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending May 6: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending May 6, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas remained at 20% in the week
• Drought in soybean areas were 15%, also unchanged from the previous week

 

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