Global Ag News for May 8.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Rapid early season sowing progress bodes well for U.S. soybean production

2025/26 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 117 [110–122] MILLION TONS, UP 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Modest early season weather conditions and rapid planting progress so far increase 2025/26 U.S. soybean production by 1% to 117 [110–122] million tons, despite rather gloomy summer weather outlooks at the moment. Our current estimate puts planted area at 84 million acres, down 3.4% from last season, which is 0.5 million acres above the USDA’s March estimate of 83.5 million acres in its Prospective Plantings report (31 March). A recently released Reuters Poll of Analysts (25 March) placed U.S. soy crop area at 83.8 [82.5–85.5] million acres. The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in the 30 June Acreage report.

Early corn planting normally begins during early April and ends in May, while soybean planting windows tend to be from mid-April through June, offering U.S. farmers more time/room for acreage decisions. U.S. farmers often book seed purchases in January/February, but this season a considerable uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff plans has prompted some delay. Soybeans are deemed to be more vulnerable to the ongoing trade disputes/reciprocal tariffs than corn, as U.S. exports near half of its soybean crop while the majority of its corn is domestically consumed. As the trade war between the U.S. and its major soybean importer China intensifies, more U.S. farmers will likely switch to corn as soy demand falls, barring any drastic/immediate changes in rising ethanol production for corn use and/or expanding soybean crush capacities. Corn should simply be the safer option with more upsides over soy, with its higher price/cost advantage and overall lower/tighter global supplies compared to soybeans.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (05 May) put total national-level soy planting pace at 30%, well ahead of last year’s 24% and the five-year average of 23%. The current soil moisture conditions are no longer dire and have slightly improved compared to few weeks ago across the top producing regions including the “I” states (i.e. Illinois, Iowa and Indiana), though still largely below normal and in need of immediate recharge. Torrential rains that took place late April/early May were mostly focused on the Southern Plains/Mississippi Delta, outside of the main Soy Belt, barely affecting sowing activities. More rains are on the way next week after a brief pause this week, but will likely be contained within the Southern Plains and areas to the east, hence should not slow down the national-level progress too much. Despite recent improvements, the biggest risk factor this season continues to lie in the status of soil moisture throughout the central Soy Belt, which has been hovering around at least 6-year lows since February up until recently. The largest soybean producing state, Illinois in particular, is still showing alarmingly low soil moisture levels, warranting close monitoring. The latest ENSO outlook by LSEG Weather Research team suggests that key forecast indicators consistently point towards increased heat and dryness risks in the central/western Soy Belt during the crop’s prime growth period from June through August, warranting close attention.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil up 0.43.

 

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 1/4 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 19 1/2; Soybeans down 13 1/2; Soymeal down $1.30; Soyoil down 1.67.

 

For the month to date wheat prices are up 7 in SRW, up 4 1/2 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is down 26; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil down 1.21.

 

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.1% in SRW, down 7.5% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 4.3%; Soybeans up 3.1%; Soymeal down 6.4%; Soyoil up 19.4%.

 

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 59 yuan; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil down 60; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is up 73.

 

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 73 ringgit (+1.96%) at 3801.

 

There were changes in registrations (-1 SRW Wheat, 20 Soyoil, -83 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 422 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 135 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 986 Soyoil; 783 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

 

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 7 were: SRW Wheat down 124 contracts, HRW Wheat up 272, Corn up 8,617, Soybeans up 15,161, Soymeal up 3,824, Soyoil up 541.

 

Northern Plains: Chances for showers are limited until the middle of next week, making for good planting progress. A changing pattern could bring through some more decent rainfall. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn’t get wetter next week.

Central/Southern Plains: An upper-level low continues to produce waves of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward through Thursday. The rain will help lessen the drought in parts of the region like western Kansas, but also made for severe weather and flooding in Oklahoma and Texas. Much of Nebraska will remain drier though, which continues to see drought building. A drier stretch is likely to develop later this week that should last through a good portion of next week as well. A system will develop midweek, but probably produce showers north of the region. There should be better chances next weekend, but that could be a very long stretch of dryness to stress wheat and early corn and soybean development.

Midwest: A cutoff low-pressure center system is leaving eastern portions of the region. Another cutoff low-pressure center may bring some showers into far southern stretches of the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the region should be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The low may bring back showers into parts of the region next week as it leaves. But overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth. If this dry stretch lasts too long though, we may see dryness becoming an issue. The weather pattern is expected to change and become more active later next week, but that does not necessarily mean widespread rainfall. Any areas that get missed could see drought expanding.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Scattered showers and heavy rain moved through on Tuesday and more periods of showers continue through at least Friday. Flooding developed again and will keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high. Some showers may stick around into early next week, but drier conditions are generally forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

Canadian Prairies: Overall dry conditions the rest of the week continue to promote good planting conditions. With overall good soil moisture in most of the region, the season is starting off in good shape. A system will move into the region Sunday and Monday with chances for widespread showers that will continue into much of next week, disrupting planting, but favorable for maintaining soil moisture.

Brazil: With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. Some showers will be possible across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul the next couple of days. But the best chance will be a front bringing heavy rainfall to southern areas Friday, then waning as it moves north this weekend.

Argentina: Several fronts are moving through this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt fieldwork a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

Europe: Showers continue across the south, especially the southeast, for the rest of the week. A small system will spread showers north into France and the UK this weekend, which will be helpful for winter wheat. Some areas across the northeast could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well. A few showers will move through Poland this weekend, but more is needed.

Black Sea: Several disturbances continue to move along a stalled front into next week, producing widespread and much-needed rainfall for drier areas in the south and east. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. The colder air will be spreading southward this weekend, slowing crop growth.

Australia: Very little precipitation is forecast for the next two weeks, which could start to be an issue for winter wheat and canola establishment. Drought in some areas of South Australia are expanding eastward and could develop elsewhere as well.

China: Several systems are forecast to move through the region through next week and models have been increasing the rainfall potential for the North China Plain for Thursday and Friday. But the potential for showers after that is spotty and mostly light. That could start to hurt heading to filling wheat and emergent corn and soybeans.

The player sheet for 5/7 had funds: net sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased about 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 99,200 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 tons of animal feed corn from South America or South Africa.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased around 66,000 tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without an international tender being issued.

 PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) has issued an international tender to purchase between 40,000 to 60,000 metric tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria was considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat, which closed last month with no purchase made
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending May 1.

• Corn est. range 900k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,133k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 600k tons, with avg of 450k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.8% to 25.191M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.288 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.02m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.036m

 

Brazil’s May soy exports could drop as trade war, large crop extend season – Anec

Brazil’s soybean exports could fall to 12.6 million tons in May despite the country having just harvested a record crop and China importing more amid a trade spat with the United States, according to projections from grain exporters association Anec on Wednesday.

Anec’s current export estimate for May, which may still be revised based on upcoming shipping schedules, shows a potential 900,000-ton fall from both April of this year and May of the last.

The potentially weaker reading for the month reflects China’s large soy inventories in the run-up to the trade war with the U.S., according to analysts’ consensus. In addition, China is not rushing purchases from Brazil as it knows the country reaped an abundant crop.

Daniele Siqueira, AgRural analyst, said soy shipments in March and April largely reflect soybeans sold in advance, before the harvest was ready. She also noted many grain traders are bracing for a longer exporting season in the current marketing year in part to reduce logistics costs during peak shipping.

China will need Brazilian soybeans and has bought large volumes for shipment in May, June and July, Siqueira said.

She added Brazil could also ship higher monthly soy volumes to China and other destinations in the second half of the year, including in the final quarter, depending on the state of tariff talks between Beijing and Washington by then.

While Brazilian soy shipments dwindle at the end of each year, the U.S. shipping season is usually at full swing after American farmers harvest their oilseeds around September.

From January to April, China absorbed 75% of the soybeans exported by Brazil, up two percentage points from last year. In the period, Brazil has already shipped 1 million tons more than in the same period in 2024, or around 40 million tons, Anec data shows.

China, Brazil’s biggest trade partner, imported 30 million tons, up two million tons from the same period a year ago, according to Anec.

 

Canada rapeseed production set to rebound in 2025/26 despite reduced area

2025/26 CANADA RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 18.2 [16.5–20.1] MILLION TONS

Lower planted area and strong competition from other crops preliminarily set 2025/26 Canada rapeseed production at 18.2 [16.5–20.1] million tons, up 2.1% from last season, amid overall unfavorable summer weather outlooks across the southern Prairies. Total planted area is projected at 8.59 million hectares, down 3.5% from last season, which is 1.9% below the StatCan’s latest outlook of 8.76 million hectares in its Principal Field Crop Areas report (12 March). Some acreage shifts from rapeseed to wheat and/or other spring crops are expected, amid vegetable oil market complexities and geopolitical uncertainties. The expected decrease in rapeseed area largely stems from its weaker competitive ability compared to other grains/oilseeds, as rapeseed typically carries higher cost of production and tends to require heavier use of nitrogen-based fertilizers than most of other domestic crops. Soil moisture levels in key producing areas of southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba have been hovering around 6-year lows since February, warranting attention, though Alberta’s soil moisture conditions remain rather healthy. LSEG Weather Research teams’ current summer weather outlook anticipates warmer than normal temperatures during June-August, the crop’s prime growth period, with below normal rainfall throughout the southern Prairies, which could exert downward pressure on yield if materialized.

 

Area expansion and yield recovery to increase 2025/26 Canada wheat production

2025/26 CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 36.5 [33.4–39.8] MILLION TONS

Continued area expansion and yield recovery from last season preliminarily set 2025/26 Canada wheat production at 36.5 [33.4-39.8] million tons, up 4.5% from last season, amid acreage shifts from rapeseed and other crops, despite overall unfavorable summer weather outlooks across the southern Prairies. Total planted area is projected at 11.2 million hectares, up 3.4% from last season, which is slightly (<1%) above the StatCan’s latest outlook of 11.1 million hectares in its Principal  Field Crop Areas report (12 March). The expected increase in wheat area largely stems from its comparative price advantage over other competing crops, despite its recent volatility amid trade tensions, in the midst of steady worldwide demand for high protein wheat. Soil moisture levels in key producing areas of southwestern Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba have been hovering around 6-year lows since February, warranting attention, though Alberta’s soil moisture conditions remain rather healthy. LSEG Weather Research teams’ current summer weather outlook anticipates warmer than normal temperatures during June-August, the crop’s prime growth period, with below normal rainfall throughout the southern Prairies, which could exert downward pressure on yield if materialized.

 

CRA – Corn Refiners Association Applauds Bipartisan Introduction of the Ag BIO Act

The Corn Refiners Association (CRA) commends the bipartisan reintroduction of the Agricultural Biorefinery Innovation and Opportunity (Ag BIO) Act in the 119th Congress. This important legislation, led by and Reps. Zach Nunn (R-IA) and Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), will strengthen America’s rural economy, foster innovation in the bioeconomy, and create good-paying jobs.

“This bipartisan legislation is a direct investment in rural America and those in the agriculture industry who drive our economy,” said John Bode, President and CEO of the Corn Refiners Association. “By expanding markets for agricultural feedstocks and supporting the next generation of biomanufacturing, this legislation will help secure America’s leadership in industrial innovation while creating good-paying jobs in communities across the country.”

The Ag BIO Act lays out a strategy to boost U.S. leadership in biomanufacturing by promoting emerging markets for agricultural raw materials like corn. It also aims to accelerate the shift from conventional manufacturing methods to more sustainable, homegrown materials and technologies.

The legislation modernizes and expands USDA’s Biorefinery, Renewable Chemical, and Biobased Product Manufacturing Assistance Program, unlocking more opportunities for corn refiners and others in the ag bioeconomy. The bill supports the construction and retrofitting of pilot- and demonstration-scale biorefineries, critical infrastructure needed to bring innovative, corn-based bioproducts to market.

By simplifying eligibility requirements, clarifying loan provisions, and expanding the range of eligible outputs, the Ag BIO Act lays the foundation for a more robust and dynamic U.S. bioeconomy – one that empowers rural communities, builds resilient supply chains, and accelerates the development of state-of-the-art materials.

“CRA is proud to support this legislation and looks forward to working with Congress and rural leaders to drive innovation and job growth in the heartland,” said Bode.

The legislation and its underlying provisions are an integral part of CRA’s Farm Bill priorities.

 

 

 

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