Global Ag News for May 7.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Potato Prices in Russia Soar to Historic Highs, Kommersant Says

Russia is facing an unprecedented surge in potato prices, with wholesale costs increasing by over 85% since the start of the year and retail prices nearly tripling compared to the previous year, Kommersant reports, citing data by market participants. This spike is attributed to a significant drop in the 2024 harvest, reduced planting areas, and a shortage of seed potatoes.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 12 1/2; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 0.48.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 4 1/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.60.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 3/4 in SRW, up 14 1/4 in HRW, up 17 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/4; Soybeans up 9 1/4; Soymeal down $3.30; Soyoil down 0.14.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.9% in SRW, down 6.2% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 1.9%; Soybeans up 4.0%; Soymeal down 6.6%; Soyoil up 20.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 53 yuan; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil up 18; Palm oil down 60; Corn up 13 — Malaysian Palm is down 65.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 65 ringgit (-1.71%) at 3727.

 

There were changes in registrations (-2 SRW Wheat, -11 Corn). Registration total: 423 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 135 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 966 Soyoil; 783 Soymeal; 681 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 6 were: SRW Wheat up 3,894 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,104, Corn up 748, Soybeans up 9,128, Soymeal up 1,603, Soyoil up 3,000.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Severe storms with heavy rains up to 3-6 inches were observed over the last 24 hours in the southern U.S., with potential impacts on developing wheat in Texas and Oklahoma
• SOUTH AMERICA: Soil moisture across the main corn areas of Mato Grosso remains in a good shape, but is still below normal in Goiás and Minas Gerais
• EUROPE: Cool conditions with overnight frost expected across Eastern E.U. may negatively impact developing wheat in Poland, Slovakia, and Romania
• BLACK SEA: Favorable rainfall surpluses (20-40 mm above normal) are anticipated across Ukraine over the next 10 days

 

WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Large pocket of dry weather across U.S. corn/soy belts
• Warmth to prevail across most regions, including significant anomalies in the 6-10 day period

 

Delta: Scattered showers and heavy rain fell over the weekend across the south and another upper-level low will bring through periods of showers through at least Friday, which may include more areas of heavy rain. Flooding may pop back up across the region and keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high again this week. Drier conditions are forecast for next week to help drain wet soils.

Brazil: With the wet season over, Brazil relies on fronts coming up from Argentina to supply southern areas with some rainfall, which would be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. Some showers will be possible across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul this week with a couple of Argentine fronts. But the best chance will be a front sweeping northward Friday through the weekend to get some showers into the country.

Argentina: Overall, it was drier over the weekend. That was favorable for additional corn and soybean harvest, as well as winter wheat planting. Several fronts are forecast to move through this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt harvest a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

 

The player sheet for 5/6 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 2,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 267,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in private deals.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 66,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without an international tender being issued

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from South America or South Africa only
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria was considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed last month with no purchase made
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 68,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: Analysts See Record US Corn Crop Ahead of WASDE

US 2025-26 corn production seen at 15.78b bu, surpassing the previous record of 15.34b bu in the 2023-24 season, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of as many as 27 analysts.

The USDA is scheduled to release its initial WASDE estimates for 2025-26 crops on May 12 at noon ET

Corn:

• The range of estimates for US 2025-26 production is 15.59b bu to 15.93b bu
• US 2025-26 ending stocks seen at 2.04b bu vs 1.47b in 2024-25
• World 2025-26 ending stocks seen at 297.6m tons vs 287.7m in the previous season

Soybeans:

• US 2025-26 production seen at 4.33b bu vs 4.37b in 2024-25
• US 2025-26 ending stocks seen at 380m bu vs 375m bu in the previous season
  • Survey range 240m bu to 675m bu
• World 2025-26 ending stocks seen at 127m tons vs 122.5m tons

Wheat:

• US 2025-26 production seen at 1.89b bu vs 1.97b in 2024-25
• US 2025-26 ending stocks seen at 859m bu vs 846m in the previous season

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 2 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.036m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.288m bbl vs 25.389m a week ago

 

Biofuel Blenders’ Credit Isn’t Coming Back, Energy Adviser Says

Don’t count on a return of the Biodiesel Blenders’ Tax Credit that renewable fuel producers relied on for decades, according to industry adviser Anthony Reed of FGS Global.

• “It’s impossible. It’s not coming back,” Reed told attendees at a Fastmarkets biofuel conference in Chicago on Tuesday
• Key lawmakers in Congress have made it “abundantly clear” they are not bringing back the BTC, said Reed, who previously worked on extensions of the tax credit for 20 years
• NOTE: Widespread confusion within the industry over the status of a Biden-era biofuel production tax credit, known as 45Z, has prompted calls for at least a temporary return of the BTC
  • 45Z provides a per-gallon, or gallon-equivalent, tax credit for makers of so-called clean transportation fuels based on the carbon intensity of production, whereas BTC was a flat $1-a-gallon incentive

 

Crop tour projects Oklahoma winter wheat crop at 101.169 million bushels

A group of Oklahoma crop experts on Tuesday projected Oklahoma’s 2025 winter wheat harvest at 101.169 million bushels, with an average yield of 35.9 bushels per acre, following an annual tour of the state, said Mike Schulte, executive director of the Oklahoma Wheat Commission.

The estimates were based on field assessments conducted by Oklahoma State University Extension educators as well as private crop consultants and area agronomists, said Schulte.

However, the average wheat production estimate among members surveyed at a meeting of the Oklahoma Grain & Feed Association, where the tour numbers were released, was higher at 103.336 million bushels, with a yield of 37.2 bpa.

By either measure, production in the third-largest winter wheat state by acreage would be down from Oklahoma’s 2024 harvest of 108.3 million bushels, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Farmers in Oklahoma planted 5% fewer acres to winter wheat for 2025 than they did a year earlier, the USDA reported in March. The USDA is scheduled to release its first production forecasts of the U.S. 2025 winter wheat harvest on Monday, May 12.

Following a dry winter, Oklahoma had its wettest April on record, according to the Oklahoma Mesonet weather network, causing floods in some winter wheat fields while bringing beneficial moisture elsewhere.

“We’re extremely wet right now,” Schulte said. “Given all the rain, there is some concern that we have lost some acres,” he said. However, he added, the rain also probably saved drought-hit wheat in southern portions of the state.

“It’s important to note that we weren’t going to have a crop probably at all (in some areas), had we not received the moisture,” Schulte said.

Oklahoma’s wheat harvest will likely begin in southwestern areas of the state around June 1, Schulte said.

The Oklahoma Wheat Commission’s forecast precedes an annual industry tour of fields in top producer Kansas, set for next week.

 

Brazil 2025/26 soy area to grow, consultant says

Brazilian farmers are poised to expand the area planted with soybeans by around 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season which starts in September in key growing regions, Andre Pessoa, president of agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult, said on Tuesday during an event.

In the current season, Brazilian farmers planted a record 47.8 million hectares (118.116 million acres) with soybeans, according to Agroconsult’s calculations.

The result was a massive crop, as Brazilian farmers harvested an unprecedented soybean volume of 172.1 million tons, Agroconsult said in March after concluding a national tour of fields.

Most of Brazil’s soy is shipped to China, which is now in the middle of a trade war with the United States.

Pessoa noted Brazilian farmers are expected to sow more soybeans in spite of the fact they are also forecast to plant a larger area with first corn in the summer. First corn competes with soy for space in some parts of Southern Brazil when a new season starts.

“We will witness a residual growth of the soybean area in Brazil,” Pessoa said about the upcoming season, adding this will be more notable in the Center-West and Northeast of Brazil, the world’s largest soy exporter and producer.

He cautioned, however, that the growth of Brazil’s soy area will not keep up with the pace of previous years, when it grew by 2 million hectares in a single season.

 

Tight global corn supply continues, with potential alleviation expected in 2025/26

The world corn market remains volatile due to tight supply and Trump’s tariffs. Grain shortages in Brazil, the EU, and Black Sea have boosted U.S. corn exports while Ukrainian and Brazilian exports decline. LSEG predicts 2024/25 U.S. corn exports will reach 65.5 million tons, just below the 2020/21 record. High inventory and a weakened dollar contribute to this surge. As of May 1, the U.S. has delivered 41.783 million tons, up 30% year-on-year, with 16.967 million tons in outstanding sales. Tight supply and possible trade disruptions from tariff policies will persist. However, new crops from Argentina and Brazil will partly ease global shortages. Increased U.S. plantings and normalized EU and Black Sea production could improve supply for the 2025/26 season.

Trump’s tariffs haven’t significantly disrupted corn trade yet, and future deals may benefit U.S. grain/oilseed exports, depending on Trump’s administration’s negotiations with other countries.

Ukraine reported 18.64 million tons of corn exports since July, with 2024/25 exports down 23% year-on-year to about 15.6 million tons as of May 2. April exports fell by 30% to 1.6 million tons. Total 2024/25 exports are estimated at 20.0 million tons, down 9.5 million tons from 2023/24.

Argentina’s improved late-season weather benefited corn production. LSEG forecasts a 49.0 million ton harvest, close to the previous season, which increased our 2024/25 export prediction to 34.73 million tons, slightly below last season. Argentine corn exports surged by 32% to 3.54 million tons in April

Brazilian exports remain low (<0.1 million tons) due to seasonality but will resume post-June harvest. LSEG estimates Brazil’s corn production at 125.0 million tons, up 5 million tons from last year, with 2024/25 exports reduced to 41.5 million tons due to low carry-out stocks and increased domestic use for feed and ethanol.

 

Argentina’s soy harvest stalls after rains, meteorologist says

Argentina’s already-delayed soy harvest has stalled further, a meteorologist said on Tuesday, following heavy rains and high humidity in the nation’s main agricultural regions.

Harvesting in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal, had already fallen behind after rains in March and early April.

“The harvest has stopped,” German Heinzenknecht, a consultant with Applied Climatology Consulting, said in an interview.

According to the expert and data from the national meteorological service, Argentina’s grains belt received between 30 millimeters (1.18 inches) and 50 millimeters of rain over the past several days, ending a streak of sunny days which had allowed many farmers to start up their combines for the first time this season.

The delays could hurt the crop, with the high moisture increasing the risk of fungus.

Heinzenknecht said that the harvest could restart on Saturday.

The harvest is nine percentage points behind last season’s pace, with 25% of the area already harvested, the latest data from the agricultural ministry showed.

 

Ukraine’s corn production unchanged amid upcoming weather

2025/26 UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION: 27.9 [26.5-29.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Upcoming weather sustains 2025/26 Ukraine corn production at 27.9 [26.5-29.3] million tons. The spring sowing campaign is actively ongoing across Ukraine and as of May 1st, farmers had planted an estimated 1,919 thousand hectares of corn, 48% up from the area harvested same time the previous season.

Over the past two weeks, cool temperatures have prevailed across eastern Ukraine and normal temperatures in the west of the country. Precipitation wise, dry weather was observed across the country, raising drought concerns, especially in Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts.

The latest weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will be lower over the next two weeks. Combined with expected wet conditions, they may delay the end of the planting season. We will monitor upcoming weather and update our insight accordingly.

 

Dry weather, low temperatures decrease Ukrainian wheat production

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 19.8 [18.8-20.8] MILLION TONS, 0.8% DOWN FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent dry and cool conditions slightly decrease 2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production to 19.8 [18.8-20.8] million tons (mmt). Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 18.7 million tons.

The past two weeks featured cool weather conditions across eastern Ukraine, with precipitation deficits across the country. Soil moisture levels in the main wheat producing Oblasts (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Odessa, Vinnytsia, and Zaporozhia) are at a 6-year low and more rains are required to alleviate soil moisture levels deficits.

According to the latest weather forecast, cooler temperatures will be in store for the next two weeks. Precipitation-wise,wet weather should occur in the eastern Ukraine, which if verified should bode well for wheat and water reserves in the affected areas.

 

Trump’s Agriculture Chief to Visit Japan for Tariff Talks: Kyodo

US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins plans to visit Japan, India and Vietnam in coming weeks to discuss President Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to Kyodo.

• “Next week, I’ll be in England discussing these things. A few weeks after, I’ll be in Italy, then soon after that, Vietnam, Japan and India,” Kyodo quoted Rollins as saying Monday at the White House
• “I’m reflective of a larger cabinet effort on behalf of this president to get out into the world to expand the markets”: Rollins

 

IKAR Raises Russian 2025 Wheat Harvest Forecast: Interfax

IKAR raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest to 83.8m tons from 82.5m tons, Interfax reports, citing IKAR’s General Director Dmitry Rylko.

• IKAR also raised wheat export forecast for 2025-2026 season to 41.3m tons from 40m tons

 

Hot, Dry Weather Threatens Output in China’s Wheat-Growing Belt

Hot and dry weather is threatening wheat production in China’s top growing region, potentially disrupting output of a key staple grain just as Beijing attempts to bolster food security during a trade war with the US.

Most areas in the central province of Henan are expected to be at “risk of hot, dry winds” from Sunday to Tuesday next week, with temperatures set to climb to 35C (95F), and low soil moisture levels, the local government said in an alert issued late on Tuesday. That will affect wheat growth, it said.

The dry weather comes just ahead of a harvest season that starts in late May and after heavy rains damaged crops in late 2023. If unmitigated, the latest extreme could drive China to seek more wheat from the international market in a bid to secure good quality supplies.

Authorities are urging farmers to guard against the weather risks by irrigating on schedule and applying fertilizer and pesticide, according to a post published on the official WeChat social media account of the Henan provincial government.

The central province produced around 38 million tons of wheat in 2024, nearly a third of China’s total output, according to official data.

Drought in the country’s northern grains production region is set to continue in the next ten days, while heavy rains are forecast to batter some areas in southern China this week, which could damage rapeseed crop and flood some fields, the weather bureau warned on Monday.

 

Palm Oil May Slip to 3,500 Ringgit on Higher Stockpiles: Mistry

Palm oil prices may tumble about 7% to trade around 3,500 ringgit a ton between June and November as production and stockpiles build up, according to veteran trader Dorab Mistry.

• Supplies look plentiful, especially as production gathers momentum, said Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd.
  • Palm has now become slightly competitive and that’s good to regain market share, he said in a presentation prepared for an industry conference in Dubai Wednesday. Exports remain a challenge, he added
  • NOTE: The tropical oil is now trading at a discount to soybean oil, after commanding a premium of as high as $227 a ton in December
• NOTE: Mistry’s price outlook compares with an earlier forecast for palm oil to trade between 3,600 ringgit and 4,100 ringgit between April and November
• Benchmark futures traded 1% lower at 3,754 ringgit/ton by the midday break in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday; -16% YTD
• The biggest factor to influence prices will be tariffs and US biodiesel policy
• “Restrictions on UCO and POME may lead to higher use of soy oil in US biodiesel and renewable diesel,” he said, referring to palm oil mill effluent — liquid wastes from a mill, and used cooking oil
• READ: Biden Moves to Curb Cooking Oil Imports With Green Fuel Rule
• Imports by top buyer India in 2025 may decline for the first time in many years; consumption has shifted from palm oil to other rival oils
  • Total cooking oil purchases by the South Asian nation are seen dropping to 15.7m tons in 2024-25 vs an earlier forecast of 16.6m tons
  • Palm imports seen falling to 7.45m tons in 2024-25 from 9.03m tons a year earlier
• Coconut oil production is anemic, CIF Rotterdam prices should remain above $2,000 a ton

 

Russia Puts Nationalized Grain Trader Under RSHB Management: IFX

Russia has put nationalized grain trader Rodnie Polya under management of state-owned Rosselkhozbank’s unit, Interfax reports, citing database of legal entities.

Russian state property fund remains owner of Rodnie Polya

 

Japan’s Zen-Noh Establishes Grain-Trading Operations in Geneva

Japanese farming cooperative Zen-Noh has established a Swiss corporation to begin operations in the European trading hub.

It will operate under the name Zen-Noh Global Holdings SA, with offices in Vernier on the outskirts of Geneva, according to the Swiss Official Gazette of Commerce. Bloomberg reported late last year that Zeh-Noh Grain Corp., the US trading arm of the Japanese company, was working to establish a trading desk with at least 15 employees in Switzerland.

A spokesperson in Tokyo for Zen-Noh, the parent company, declined to comment.

It’s Zen-Noh’s latest move to expand beyond its traditional business of supplying everything from corn to soybeans to Japan. Geneva is a hub for global grain traders, with Cargill Inc., Louis Dreyfus Co. and Bunge Global SA also having offices in the Swiss canton.

Zen-Noh acquired a 50% stake in a grain terminal in Santos in a joint venture with Bunge in 2024, and also owns GrainsConnect Canada in a joint venture with Australian Grain exporter GrainCorp.

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Improves in April: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 148 points in April from 140 in March, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 9 points from March
• Future expectations up by 8 points
• “Agricultural producers are concerned that the US tariff policy will reduce farm incomes in 2025. However, in the long run, there is an expectation among a majority of producers that the US tariff policy will actually benefit US agriculture,” according to the report’s authors James Mintert and Michael Langemeier

 

US agriculture secretary defends budget cuts, says won’t close offices that serve farmers

• USDA not planning to close any of 4,500 Farm Service Agency offices
• Agency will announce plans to relocate outside Washington, D.C., in coming weeks
• Rollins has spoken with Rubio about administering Food for Peace aid program

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins at a Senate hearing on Tuesday defended downsizing the USDA and potential cuts to international food aid programs, but said the agency does not plan to close any of its 4,500 offices that serve farmers.

The USDA has lost more than 15,000 staff to financial incentive programs offered by the administration of President Donald Trump as part of his effort with billionaire ally Elon Musk to shrink the size of the federal workforce.

Trump’s budget proposal released on May 2 would cut $4.5 billion from the USDA, including steep cuts to conservation, rural development and research programs.

About 1,100 of those leaving USDA worked at the Farm Services Agency, which administers farm loans and provides technical support to farmers at its locations around the country, according to a USDA briefing for Congressional staff. Two-thirds of those were employees working at the county level.

Testifying before the agriculture subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Rollins said, “it is not in our plan” to close any FSA offices. She said USDA is working to develop online technical assistance that may mean less reliance on in-person services in the future.

Trump’s budget would cut $358 million from the FSA, and suggested that some of its locations are “underutilized, resulting in waste.”

Rollins said the agency is recruiting to rehire staff to critical roles that were vacated, including for FSA county offices, wildland firefighters in the U.S. Forest Service, and staff at the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, which handles animal disease outbreaks like bird flu.

Several hundred requests to enroll in the financial incentive for voluntary departures program were declined because the staff roles were too important, she said.

“Have we done it perfectly? No,” she said of the staff moves.

The budget also would eliminate the McGovern-Dole Food for Education Program, Food for Progress and Food for Peace food aid programs, which send U.S. commodities abroad.

Rollins defended the potential cuts as part of the administration’s effort to make the agency more efficient. But Rollins said she has had “very initial conversations” with Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the USDA assuming control of the Food for Peace program, which has historically been administered by USAID.

Rollins also said an announcement would be forthcoming from the USDA in the coming weeks about plans to relocate the agency outside of Washington, D.C.

 

 

 

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