Global Ag News for May 5.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Frost, drought in April were negative for Ukraine’s spring crops, forecasters say

Strong and prolonged frosts followed by unusually high temperatures and a lack of precipitation in April all had a negative impact on the development of Ukrainian spring crops, state forecasters said on Monday.

Frosts in early April covered most of Ukraine and temperatures dropped to minus 11 degrees Celsius (12.2 degrees Fahrenheit) for up to 7 hours, APK-Inform agriculture consultancy quoted forecasters as saying.

“Dry weather with low relative air humidity for spring and frosts were also unfavourable for the initial development of early spring crops,” forecasters said.

Ukrainian farmers are sowing spring crops and the future harvest depends to a significant extent on plants having enough heat and moisture for germination and further growth.

Forecasters said last month that weather conditions in mid-April were mostly favourable for the development of winter and spring grains in most of Ukraine.

They said that during April, the deficit of precipitation continued in most regions, with the monthly amount only reaching or exceeding the norm in pockets of the north, south, west and east of the country.

Ukraine has often suffered from a lack of soil moisture in recent years, particularly in May and June.

The farm ministry said last week that farmers had sown 3.2 million hectares of grain as of May 2. The ministry did not provide comparative data.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal up $0.60; Soyoil down 0.55.

 

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 11 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 17 in HRS; Corn is down 17; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil down 1.72.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 17 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans up 8; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil down 0.09.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.5% in SRW, down 5.6% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 0.1%; Soybeans up 4.3%; Soymeal down 5.7%; Soyoil up 20.7%.

China markets are closed for Holiday.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 68 ringgit (-1.75%) at 3813.

 

There were changes in registrations (-34 Corn, -2 Soyoil, -377 Soymeal). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 146 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 966 Soyoil; 793 Soymeal; 681 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 2 were: SRW Wheat down 3,816 contracts, HRW Wheat down 177, Corn down 3,516, Soybeans up 10,251, Soymeal up 5,568, Soyoil up 7,358.

  

Northern Plains: It was dry and warm over the weekend, allowing for fieldwork to get done. A front will move through with scattered showers for Monday and Tuesday. Chances for showers are limited afterward until maybe the middle of next week. Though drought reduction has occurred recently, a drier stretch may start turning the tables if the pattern doesn’t get wetter next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Showers left Texas over the weekend and most areas were dry. However, an upper-level low will be moving into the region Sunday night and especially on Monday, with waves of showers and thunderstorms from Kansas southward through at least Thursday. That will continue to help lessen the drought in the region, but could make for more severe weather and flooding.

Midwest: A low-pressure center became cutoff over eastern portions of the region over the weekend and continued showers there, which were heavy in some areas. The low will slowly get pushed eastward on Tuesday into Wednesday. Another cutoff low-pressure center may bring some showers into far southern stretches of the region for Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, the region should be much drier, promoting lots of fieldwork. The chances for precipitation later this week and beyond are more limited, but will still be possible, but overall, conditions should be improving for more planting progress and early growth.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Scattered showers and heavy rain fell over the weekend across the south and another upper-level low will bring through periods of showers Tuesday through at least Friday, which may include more areas of heavy rain. Flooding may pop back up across the region and keep water levels on the Lower Mississippi River awfully high again this week.

Brazil: It was largely dry across most of the primary growing areas over the weekend, a signal that the wet season is over and the dry season has started. This is to be expected at this time of year. The country would enjoy some fronts coming up from Argentina to supply some water from time-to-time, especially for wheat planting that should begin shortly. Corn will largely draw upon built up soil moisture from the wet season to fill kernels. Some showers will be possible across the far southern state of Rio Grande do Sul this week with a couple of Argentine fronts. But the best chance will be a front sweeping northward Friday through the weekend to get some showers into the country.

Argentina: Overall, it was drier over the weekend. That was favorable for additional corn and soybean harvest, as well as winter wheat planting. Several fronts are forecast to move through this week with scattered showers. That may disrupt harvest a bit, but would improve soil moisture for wheat, which should start getting planted here shortly.

Europe: A system in the west and a front in the east combined to produce widespread showers across much of the continent this weekend. Showers will continue across the south, especially the southeast, throughout much of the week as well. Some areas across the north could use a drink of water, but fieldwork should be advancing rather quickly as well.

Black Sea: A front moved into the northwestern half of the region over the weekend and brought showers there and northwest, but missed drier areas across the south and east. Several disturbances are forecast to move along the front this week, producing some widespread and much-needed rainfall for those drier areas. It is much colder in the northwest behind that front, but not enough to produce damaging frosts for too many areas. Northwestern Russia and Belarus stand the best chances for that, but wheat is much further behind developmentally here.

 

The player sheet for 5/2 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 35,800 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender earlier this week.
• CORN PUSCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal late last week without issuing an international tender

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 99,200 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria was considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed last week with no purchase made.

 

 

TODAY

Palm Oil Reserves in Malaysia Seen Surging the Most in 20 Months

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia likely increased the most since August 2023 as production in the second-biggest grower rose further, according to a Bloomberg survey, raising concerns that prices will continue to slide.

The rebound in supplies comes after poor weather and floods hit output in the Southeast Asian nation between September and February, sending inventories to their lowest level in almost two years. Palm yields are now recovering as weather conditions have improved, and harvesting is gathering pace following the return of workers after some key festivals.

Reserves rose 15% from a month earlier to 1.79 million tons in April, according to the median of 11 estimates in the survey of plantation executives, traders and analysts. That would be the highest level in five months.

April end-stocks are likely to show a rebound due to a strong recovery in production after the Eid al-Fitr holidays, as rains have been quite good and there haven’t been issues like haze, said Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. The pace of production will likely strengthen going forward due to favorable weather, he said.

Production jumped 17% to 1.62 million tons, the survey showed, after advancing 17% the month before. Exports are expected to climb 12% to 1.13 million tons. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will publish its data on May 13.

Benchmark palm oil prices may drop further in Kuala Lumpur after slumping 27% since their peak in November as a stronger Malaysian currency may curb export demand and the US-China trade war stoke concerns about the pace of global economic growth.

“The macro situation is still not good,” Bagani said. There hasn’t yet been a truce between the US and China, and falling energy prices are clouding the outlook for biofuel programs, hurting demand for vegetable oils for fuel.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Index moves down 9% in April

Corn values continue to move down, pressed by the low demand. Consumers are prioritizing inventories, expecting more price decreases, based on the possible good harvest of the second crop – weather conditions are favorable to the crop development in most part of the regions, and the production may increase in relation to the previous season.

Sellers, in turn, are willing to trade in the spot market, fearing quotations can decrease even more considering the current scenario of higher supply, favorable weather and low demand. In general, trades are moving at a slow pace.

PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 8.6% in April, closing at BRL 80.13 per 60-kilo bag on April 30, the lowest level since February 18 this year.

EXPORTS – Secex data indicate that 141.05 thousand tons were shipped in 17 producing days of April, volume 113% superior to that registered in April/24.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Export premium and high supply press down values

The favorable weather to the soy harvesting progress of the 2024/25 crop in both Brazil and Argentina and also to sowing activities of the 2025/26 season in the United States pressed down export premiums this week.

In ports and the spot market, besides this scenario, the supply above the demand reinforced price drops – in need to make cash, some producers were more willing to trade. Many sellers, however, are still waiting for higher values in the next months, preferring to focus on term contracts.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) decreased 2.2% from April 24-30, to close at BRL 132.14 per 60-kg bag on April 30. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 1% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 127.79 per 60-kg bag.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices downed 1.1% between April 24 and 30. The Brazilian value of soy oil averaged BRL 6,649.42 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on April 30, for a decrease of 0.7% against that on April 24.

CROPS – Conab says that 94.8% of the area had been harvested up to April 26, surpassing the 90.5% registered in the same period of 2024.

 

Russia’s Novorossiysk Grain Plant operating normally after drone attack

The Novorossiysk Grain Plant (MOEX: NKHP), a subsidiary of the United Grain Company, one of the largest deep-water grain terminals in the Azov-Black Sea basin, continues operating normally following the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ massive attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk, the plant’s General Director Yury Medvedev told Interfax.

“The plant is operating normally, the reception [of grain] is underway,” he said.

The plant’s infrastructure is not damaged.

 

Japan Proposes More Corn, Soybean Imports in US Talks: Yomiuri

Japan’s top trade representative Ryosei Akazawa proposed increasing imports of corn and soybeans in tariff talks with the US, Yomiuri reported.

 

Indonesia Consumes About 4.3M Kl of Biodiesel Jan-Apr: Ministry

Indonesia recorded about 4.3m kiloliters of biodiesel use as of the end of April, according to Eniya Listiani Dewi, director general for new and renewable energy at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry,

The industry sector consumed more biofuel than the public service sector, she tells reporters without giving details

 

US Pork Production Up 2.3% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 540m pounds for the week ending May 3 from 528m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 2.3% from a week ago to 2.486m head
• Beef production up 0.8% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 0.7%
• For the year, beef production is 2.4% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2% below

 

Dry weather ahead for most corn/soy regions of the U.S.

What to Watch:

• Split temperature pattern across North America
• High rainfall in the Southern U.S., while areas further north experience dry conditions

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS ARGENTINA, WHILE BRAZIL REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Wet weather in the Pampas and Northeast  Argentina, unfavorable to corn harvesting
• Dry weather in Brazil

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.