Global Ag News for May 27th

 TODAY—- EXPORT SALES

Wheat prices overnight are up 7 3/4 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 8 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal down $0.09; Soyoil down 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 19 1/4 in HRW, down 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 32 1/2; Soybeans down 28 1/2; Soymeal down $1.62; Soyoil down 0.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 78 1/2 in SRW, down 98 3/4 in HRW, down 75 in HRS; Corn is down 46 1/4; Soybeans down 36 1/2; Soymeal down $43.20; Soyoil up 3.03.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 77 yuan ; Soymeal down 29; Soyoil down 72; Palm oil down 76; Corn down 24 — Malasyian Palm is down 122.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 122 ringgit (-3.03%) at 3902, dragged down by concerns over dwindling demand and improving production in the world’s top growers.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday, north Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday. East: Scattered showers late Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday, mostly west. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; buyers of 5,000 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 Soymeal, and; net sellers of 4,000 lots of Soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 26 were: SRW Wheat down 3,240 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,845, Corn up 7,679, Soybeans down 1,882, Soymeal down 931, Soyoil up 3,102.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 165 Soybeans; 1,003 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase about 92,000 tonnes of optional-origin soft wheat.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Sept. 30 and arrive in Japan by Nov. 25, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on June 2.
• Saudi Arabia issues tender to buy about 720,000 tonnes wheat

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Indonesia’s state procurement agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy and import about 180,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 124,620 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.

Biden’s Asia Czar Says Era of Engagement With China Is Over

• Campbell says China is more forcibly pushing its ‘hard power’
• Competition, not cooperation, likely to define ties: Campbell

The U.S. is entering a period of intense competition with China as the government running the world’s second-biggest economy becomes ever more tightly controlled by President Xi Jinping, the White House’s top official for Asia said.

Argentine growers sell 19.4 mln tonnes of 2020/21 soy, lagging 2019/20

Argentine growers have sold 19.4 million tonnes of soybeans from the current 2020/21 season, after clinching deals for 975,500 tonnes over the last week alone, the Agriculture Ministry said in a report on Tuesday.

With farmers hoarding soybeans as a hedge against an anemic local peso, this year’s sales rhythm is slower than last year’s when, by this point in May, farmers had sold 23.2 million tonnes of the oilseed.

Despite strong current agricultural commodity prices, many farmers are opting to save by piling up soybean stocks that can be sold for dollars rather than hold a weakening peso. The currency has weakened 10.94% so far this year to 94.49 per U.S. dollar.

Growers in Argentina have sold 28.2 million tonnes of 2020/21 corn, according to the ministry’s report, or 3.2 million tonnes more than what was sold by this point last year.

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending May 20.

• Corn est. range 5,900k – 7,600k tons, with avg of 6,808k
• Soybean est. range 100k – 800k tons, with avg of 397k

USDA Boosts Ag Export Forecast to $164 Billion on China Demand

The U.S. Agriculture Department raised its forecast for agricultural exports by $7 billion from its February estimate, with rising demand from China accounting for half the increase.

• Agency had already projected exports would hit a record in FY21
• Forecast for annual corn exports raised $3.2 billion to $17.2 billion through Sept. 30, the end of the federal fiscal year, “driven by strong demand and reduced competition,” according to a quarterly outlook released Wednesday by USDA’s Economic Research Service
• China has been an active buyer of U.S. corn since the agency made its last forecast
• Soybean exports are projected up $1.5 billion to $28.9 billion as “demand from China remains strong”
• The $164 billion forecast for FY21 compares with $135.7 billion in exports last year

Port strike in Argentina ends after vaccination deal reached – unions

A nearly day-old port strike that snarled grains cargo traffic in Argentina was called off late on Wednesday after unions said they clinched a deal allowing them to be given priority in receiving COVID-19 vaccinations.

The workers held a 48-hour strike last week over lack of access to vaccinations. The work stoppage was renewed early on Wednesday, paralyzing shipments from the world’s No. 3 corn exporter and top supplier of soymeal livestock feed, used to fatten hogs and poultry from Europe to Southeast Asia.

In neighboring soy exporter Brazil, the government is set this week to begin vaccinating port workers at Santos, Latin America’s largest port.

China’s Scrutiny of Corn Imports Spurs U.S. Cargo Cancellations

China is clamping down on some corn imports amid concern that overseas purchases have spiraled out of control, prompting several feed mills to cancel their U.S. cargoes.

Chinese customs authorities are restricting imports into free trade zones, which aren’t counted toward an official annual purchase quota, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Total U.S. corn cancellations are estimated to be less than 1 million tons, said two of the people, who asked not to be identified as the matter is private.

China’s crackdown on corn purchases is targeted at businesses that have set up blending facilities in the free trade zones, according to the people familiar with the matter. These facilities allow firms to mix the imported corn with other raw materials to produce livestock feed that enable them to profit from zero-tariff imports, the people said.

Zimbabwe blocks maize imports following bumper harvest

On May 21st Zimbabwe’s Agricultural Marketing Authority (AMA) announced that it had stopped issuing import permits for maize and maize meal to grain millers following a large maize harvest in the current 2021 season. Analysis The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that maize production in the 2021 harvest will increase to 2.8m tonnes, a threefold increase over 2020 levels, supported by above-average rainfall during the growing season.

HOG/CEPEA: Exchange ratio between live hog and corn is the worst in all times

The high price levels for corn in the Brazil have been challenging Brazilian hog farmers. This week, data from Cepea have indicated that the current exchange ratio of live hog for corn is the most unfavorable to farmers in the series of Cepea, which began in 2004 for live hog.

After increasing slightly in early May, hog prices dropped steeply in the following weeks, due to the slow trading pace for pork meat in both the Brazilian market and for exports. The prices for the major inputs consumed in the activity, corn and soybean meal, have decreased in May too, but not as much as that for live hog, which reduced the purchase power of hog farmers against these inputs.

2020/21 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 101.9 [91.9–105.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Persistent dryness in core areas of Mato Grosso, Paraná and Goiás fractionally lowers 2020/21 Brazil corn production to 101.9 [91.9–105.8] million tons, now 4.2% and <1% below the latest estimates from CONAB (106.4 million tons) and USDA (102 million tons). Total corn area is estimated at 19.0 million hectares, 0.7 million hectares below the current USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) figure (which also sees national-level yield at 5.18 tons per hectare vs. our current estimate of 5.35 tons per hectare). Our production estimate is placed below the latest Reuters poll of analysts’ own estimates (for May WASDE), which pegged total corn production at an average of 103.1 [100.0–106.5] million tons.

U.S. corn production slightly down despite continued favorable early season conditions – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2021/22 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION: 391 [352–428] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Updated June weather and long-term forecasts fractionally decrease 2021/22 U.S. corn production to 15.4 [13.9–16.9] billion bushels, despite recent favorable conditions and continued rapid plantings. Our current median estimate puts planted area at 94.1 million acres, 3.2% above the USDA’s May estimate of 91.1 million acres (from Crop Production report on 12 May). The latest Reuters Poll of Analysts (25 March) placed U.S. corn area at 93.2 [92.0–94.5] million acres. The next USDA survey-based estimate of acreage will be released in its June Acreage report (scheduled for 30 June).

Favorable harvest weather across the Pampas maintains Argentina corn production – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2020/21 ARGENTINA CORN PRODUCTION: 46.0 [42.5–47.9] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Favorable late season weather maintains 2020/21 Argentina corn production at 46.0 [42.5–47.9] million tons, despite continued harvest delays.

Our current estimate puts planted area at 6.4 million hectares, slightly above 6.3 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires, but below the Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario’s 7.3 million hectares. In May’s WASDE (12 May), USDA placed Argentina corn production at 47 million tons, unchanged from last update. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 46 and 50 million tons, respectively.

Argentina soybean production unchanged as favorable harvest weather continue – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2020/21 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 46.1 [42.9–48.8] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Favorable late season weather maintains 2020/21 Argentina soybean production at 46.1 [42.9–48.8] million tons, despite continued harvest delays.

Our current estimate puts planted area at 17.8 million hectares, above 16.9-17.2 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario and Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires. In May’s WASDE (12 May), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 47 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 47.5 million tons. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 43 and 45 million tons, respectively.

Recent favorable weather raises Ukraine corn production – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2021/22 UKRAINE CORN PRODUCTION: 33.8 [29.0–38.0] MILLION TONS, up 2% from last update

Above average precipitation and favorable soil moisture raise 2020/21 Ukraine corn production by 2% to 33.8 [29.0–38.0] million tons (mmt).

Palm Oil’s Price Decline Seen Cushioned by Lagging Output: IJM

Any decline in palm oil prices this year is likely to be capped by weaker-than-expected yields due to worker shortages, according to IJM Plantations Bhd.

Australia expects warmer, wetter winter; rules out El Niño event

Australia’s winter will probably be warmer than average, particularly across its grain-growing eastern regions, with a hotter Indian Ocean likely to bring rain to some areas, the weather bureau said on Thursday.

Covid spread in rural India: Seed manufacturers don’t see drop in sales

Amid fear for a slowdown in sowing since rural India has been affected by the second wave of Covid pandemic, the Rs 20,000-crore domestic seed industry is hopeful of normal year as there has been no report of lower sales of seeds of agricultural crops so far.

DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.3% to 18.98M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 19.658 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.011m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.028m