Global Ag News For May 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 3/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $0.20; Soyoil up 0.53.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 22 3/4 in SRW, up 21 1/2 in HRW, up 26 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/2; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $0.40; Soyoil up 1.10.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 17 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 21; Soybeans up 13 3/4; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil up 1.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.7% in SRW, down 3.8% in HRW, up 0.7% in HRS; Corn is down 1.0%; Soybeans up 6.0%; Soymeal down 5.0%; Soyoil up 25.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 25 yuan; Soymeal up 29; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 28; Corn down 5 — Malaysian Palm is down 15.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 15 ringgit (-0.38%) at 3893.

There were changes in registrations (-2 Corn). Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 20 were: SRW Wheat down 3,843 contracts, HRW Wheat down 315, Corn up 5,703, Soybeans up 1,107, Soymeal down 489, Soyoil up 6,802.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 21 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Soil moisture improved over the Canadian Prairies last week, while the weather in late May and early June will favor wheat/rapeseed planting progress
• SOUTH AMERICA: Torrential rains fell in the eastern Pampas at the end of last week (>100 mm above normal), with potential for local damage to unharvested corn and soybeans
• EUROPE: The LSEG monthly forecast for June suggests high probability of prevailing warmth and wet conditions across the Western E.U. as a less certain feature
• BLACK SEA: After active conditions in May, weather in June may turn hot and dry across Ukraine and SW Russia

 

Northern Plains: A system continues to produce areas of heavy rain across the region into Wednesday. It may be cold enough for snow to mix in over North Dakota Tuesday night, though accumulations are unlikely. The rainfall will continue to ease drought conditions in the region and be helpful for early growth. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, but go on a warming trend next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Widespread showers and thunderstorms finally gave Nebraska some much-needed rainfall over the last couple of days and parts of western Kansas got some needed showers as well. The system leaves on Tuesday, but disturbances could bring additional showers for the rest of the week. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with more widespread showers. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week though, which should keep stress down for those areas.

Midwest: A system is bringing through widespread showers and thunderstorms that continues through Thursday. And another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well. The rainfall should be good for crop growth for much of the region, though some that still have planting to do could be delayed. Cold temperatures will spread through the remainder of the region over the next day or two, being in place into a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern, but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front is bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the region on Tuesday and some additional showers may follow behind Wednesday night into Thursday. Yet another system is forecast to bring showers in over the weekend into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are trending much cooler, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

Canadian Prairies: A system continues to bring scattered showers to Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba through Wednesday while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday. Recent rainfall has been beneficial after a wide open planting window has helped to get many producers off to a fast pace. Another such window is opening for the end of the month, which should also allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost that has been very limited this week and overall not a concern. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

Brazil: A front will bounce around southern Brazil throughout the week, offering some potential rainfall. That is coming mostly for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state that would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers may make it into Parana and help filling corn in some limited fashion. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture.

Argentina: A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country over the weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. The front may remain active with scattered showers across the north this week. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment.

 

WIDESPREAD WARMTH MAY PREVAIL ACROSS EUROPE AND THE BLACK SEA REGION DURING JUNE

What to Watch:

High confidence for prevailing warmth during the next month

Wet weather in Europe and dry conditions across the Black Sea

 

The player sheet for 5/20 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,000 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is May 20.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 16 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.013m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.112m bbl vs 25.445m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 2.5%

April placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.61m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• That would be the lowest April placements since 2020
• Estimates range from -4.6% to +3.8% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of May 1 seen falling by 1.4% y/y to 11.39m head
• Marketings seen falling 3.3% y/y

 

Brazil soy exports seen at 14.52 mln tns in May vs 14.27 mln tns in previous estimate – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.52 MILLION METRIC TNS IN MAY VERSUS 14.27 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.36 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 2.34 MILLION TNS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC

 

Bartlett Grain to Buy Ceres Global for $4.50/Shr in Cash

Bartlett Grain to buy Ceres Global Ag for $4.50/share in cash.

• Price represents premium of about 153% to the closing price of Ceres shares on the TSX on May 16
• Ceres board and its standing independent committee approved deal and recommended holders vote in favor
• Holders representing 70% of Ceres’ outstanding shares, including VN Capital Management, entered into irrevocable “hard” voting agreements supporting deal
• Termination fee of $5,845,000 payable to Bartlett if deal falls through
• Following deal, Ceres shares expected to be delisted from TSX
• Deal seen closing late calendar 2Q or early 3Q 2025
• Blair Franklin Capital Partners acting as independent financial adviser to Ceres’ board

 

SOIL MOISTURE RECOVERY OBSERVED AND EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CROPLANDS

What to Watch:

• The spring wheat areas of Canada and Northern U.S. recorded significant rains and soil moisture improvement
• Cold and active weather over the U.S. Midwest this week will impede corn/soybean plantings but will mitigate moisture deficits
• A gradual trend toward warm and potentially dry conditions expected in early June

 

Weather set to hit harvest in Russia’s largest grain region

• Russia’s largest grain region introduced state of emergency
• Rostov grain harvest fell by 22% in 2024 owing to bad weather
• Lack of rain likely to hurt Rostov harvest

High temperatures and a lack of rain over the coming months are expected to deplete the harvest in Russia’s largest grain region Rostov, the head of the local grain lobby group said after a farming emergency was declared.

Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar issued a decree on May 19 introducing the state of emergency for farming after spring frosts and ordered local authorities to evaluate the damage.

The declaration allows farmers to seek compensation. Insurance payments to farmers linked to bad weather grew by 76% in 2024.

Apart from the frosts, a lack of rain is expected to deplete the harvest further, Anatoly Kolchik, head of the local branch of the Russian Grain Union lobby group, told a local edition of the Vedomosti daily on Tuesday.

“The problems affected not only winter crops but also spring crops. They simply won’t have enough time to gain the necessary strength,” Kolchik was quoted as saying, adding that only the upper layers of soil had sufficient moisture.

Andrei Sizov from Sovecon consultancy also cited the lack of rain as the biggest threat to crops in Rostov and that yields were set to decline.

“Overall, the situation has improved with the recent rainfall, but it’s far from sufficient. The potential yield is below average,” Sizov said.

Rostov became the third Russian grain-producing region to declare a farming emergency after frosts in late April and May. The others were Voronezh and Belgorod.

The region’s grain harvest fell by 22% last year after Rostov was hit by spring frosts and then by drought, with the wheat harvest declining by 38%.

The grain harvest for the whole of Russia, the world’s biggest wheat exporter, declined by almost 14% in 2024.

In February local authorities forecast this year’s harvest in Rostov would be 13.7 million metric tons, 20% more than in 2024.

“The situation this year remains tense, both in terms of weather and economic parameters,” Rostov’s First Deputy Agriculture Minister Olga Gorbaneva said during the public hearing of the region’s budget.

Gorbaneva said the region’s agricultural sector profit margin fell to 8% in 2024 from 16% the previous year. She also said that grain farming costs rose by 35% last year while revenue rose by 13%.

Russia’s Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said last week that crop damage from May frosts is not significant this year and is estimated at only about 10% of last year’s damage. She also said that a lack of moisture in the soil was the next big risk.

 

 

 

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