Global Ag News for May 2.24

TOP HEADLINES

India Predicts Sweltering May, Raising Power Shortage Worry

• The number of heat wave days seen more than normal this month
• Weather bureau advises to make effort to protect public health

Several parts of India will witness scorching heat in May, raising concerns about health risks for residents as well as power shortages.

The number of heat wave days are also likely to be higher during the month, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department, said at an online press conference in New Delhi on Wednesday.

As many as eight to 11 heat wave days are likely this month in some areas of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, compared with a normal of three days, according to the weather office. Maximum temperatures in the range of 44C to 47C are expected to continue over some parts of eastern India until Friday, before abating, it said.

“Efforts are essential for safeguarding public health and minimizing the adverse impacts of heat waves,” Mohapatra said.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 10 1/4 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans up 12; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil up 0.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 12 3/4 in SRW, down 21 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $8.20; Soyoil down 1.97.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 6 1/4 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, up 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 3/4; Soybeans up 19 1/4; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil up 0.56.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.6% in SRW, down 2.6% in HRW, down 1.6% in HRS; Corn is down 5.3%; Soybeans down 9.8%; Soymeal down 10.4%; Soyoil down 11.2%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 17 ringgit (+0.45%) at 3835. China markets remain closed for Holiday.

There were changes in registrations (220 Corn). Registration total: 1,438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 230 Corn; 631 Soybeans; 2,583 Soyoil; 226 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 1 were: SRW Wheat down 398 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,407, Corn up 12,414, Soybeans up 7,691, Soymeal down 2,730, Soyoil up 1,101.

Northern Plains: Showers are expected to move through the region through Friday. After a very short break, a much stronger system is forecast to move in on Sunday or Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. The active weather will make it difficult to get out into the field in some areas but help to ease the remaining drought and add soil moisture.

Central/Southern Plains: The pattern continues to be active with multiple storm systems moving through over the next two weeks, keeping planting slower and aiding soil moisture in many areas, though flooding may still be a concern across some areas. The southwest is not in a favored location for getting precipitation into the area this week, but possibly on Sunday. Wheat conditions are likely to continue falling if significant rain does not come soon.

Midwest: The pattern stays active and the gap between storms remains short as another system moves across the region through Friday, one moves through this weekend, and another is eyeing the region for early next week. Long-term deficits are being eroded quickly in some areas like Missouri, but wet field conditions are going to slow planting down quite a bit. Not all areas are getting the heavy rain though, and may find some gaps between thunderstorms to continue working. The water is likely to be needed for the summer, which should be overall beneficial even if it delays planting.

Delta: The region continues to be fairly wet, but the gaps between rains have been longer than areas farther north and west. Even with all the rain, planting progress has been quick this spring. Scattered showers will be moving through at times though, and slow down additional progress.

Canadian Prairies: An active pattern will bring multiple storm systems through the region over the next two weeks, which may be helpful for bringing additional moisture over the expansive drought, but slow planting progress and could contain some snow as it will also be colder than normal most days as well.

Brazil: Much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dry for the foreseeable future, though far northern areas may see some isolated showers at times. That means that it will also be hot, which will force corn to draw upon its limited subsoil moisture as the crop goes through the rest of pollination and grain-fill. Damage to the crop will become more apparent with time. Rio Grande do Sul, which is in the midst of corn and soybean harvest in the far south, is seeing fronts waffle around in the region that will keep them wet through next week, disrupting the remaining harvest and make planting of winter wheat difficult. Those fronts may get into the far southern safrinha growing areas of Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul at times, but that is not forecast to amount to very much.

Argentina: A front will continue to waffle around northern Argentina through next week as disturbances move through the country. Those disturbances will bring occasional showers to southern areas but heavier rain farther north with the front. That will make corn and soybean harvest more difficult where the rain occurs. Cold air will build behind the front this week and may lead to frosts on Thursday and Friday. Cold air moving back in next week may do the same.

The player sheet for 5/1 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 116,900 metric tonnes of rice
• CORN, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase up to 160,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 70,000 tons of soymeal.
• SOFT WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 204M Bushels in March: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 2.9% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 2.8% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 0.8% y/y

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 468.8M Bu in March

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 7.5% higher than in March 2023
• DDGS production rose to 1.932m tons

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.0% to 25.488M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.497 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.987m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.963m

Egypt Expects to Import Up to 5.7M Tons of Wheat in FY 2024-25

Estimated imports would be for financial year that starts in July, Supply Minister Aly El-Moselhy tells reporters in Cairo.

• Current wheat stockpiles sufficient for 3 months
• Egypt has bought 1.1m tons of wheat from domestic farmers since mid-April
• Vegetable-oil stockpiles enough for 5.4 months, sugar sufficient for 11.4 months

US Urea, Phosphate, Potash Prices Weaken as Global Demand Pauses

Urea, phosphate and potash prices continued to fall this week at some inland US locations, though New Orleans barge prices were largely flat in limited trading. Chinese potash inventory is swollen at double the strategic-reserve level, delaying an annual supply contract. Most global markets were quiet at midweek for the international Labor Day holiday on May 1.

 

 

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