Global Ag News for May 2.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Mexico May Surpass Canada as Top Market for US Ag Exports — Market Talk

Mexico is poised to become the top destination for U.S. agricultural exports, and could surpass Canada to claim the top spot this year, CoBank says. Last year, U.S. food and agricultural exports to Mexico climbed to $31.4 billion, while Canada remained the top market, at $32.4 billion, CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange says. Grain, feed, oilseeds and related products make up the largest category of U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico, and dairy exports continue to follow a pattern of rapid growth, CoBank says. Rob Fox, director of CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, says some risk factors are growing that could slow the pace of additional growth. “Mexico’s economy has been slowing, and the unusually strong peso over the last couple of years has weakened by about 15% since early 2024,” Fox says. CoBank is a cooperative bank serving industries across rural America.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 1/2 in SRW, up 8 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $2.10; Soyoil down 0.30.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 8 1/4 in SRW, down 16 1/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 3/4; Soybeans down 6 1/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.51.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.5% in SRW, down 7.7% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is up 1.3%; Soybeans up 4.1%; Soymeal down 6.9%; Soyoil up 24.1%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 24 ringgit (-0.61%) at 3887.

China markets are close for holiday.

There were changes in registrations (-391 Soyoil, -63 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 180 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 968 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 681 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 1 were: SRW Wheat up 7,187 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,214, Corn up 6,510, Soybeans up 3,770, Soymeal up 3,600, Soyoil up 7,794.

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 01 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Dry conditions are expected in the western Midwest U.S. and northern Plains through 10 days, while very heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the Southern/Southeast U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warm weather coupled with modest precipitation is expected across Argentina through the next 10+ days
• EUROPE: Widespread warmth will persist across Europe through 5 days before giving way to sweeping cold weather in the 6-10 day time frame
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Wet weather is expected across most of Vietnam during the next 10 days, barring central parts of the country which will receive closer to normal totals during this time

Northern Plains: Additional light and spotty showers continue into Friday. Another system will move into the region on Sunday, likely bringing more scattered showers into Tuesday. The current and forecast rainfall should improve drought, but also cause wet conditions and some delays to planting.

Central/Southern Plains: Another front brings more showers Thursday and Friday with scattered showers with more threats for heavy rain and severe weather across the south. A slow-moving system will move into the Plains with showers starting on Sunday and continue periods of showers for most of next week. That should improve the drought situation in some areas, but cause more flooding. Most of Kansas and Nebraska will welcome any rain that falls, though Nebraska may not see all that much despite the several days of chances.

Midwest: Another front and system will move through on Friday, but the latest forecasts have this system becoming cutoff and meandering through eastern areas into next week. Showers should be limited after Sunday, but could continue for some areas, holding up planting intentions a bit and turning a dry forecast into a wet one. Western areas may see showers later next week with another low meandering through.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: The Mississippi River is still flooded south of Memphis, causing some travel restrictions. A front remains stalled in the region with periods of showers through Saturday, causing some heavy rain to exacerbate the wet conditions in the region. A slow-moving low-pressure system will move into the region in the middle of next week with more unnecessary rainfall.

Brazil: A front continues showers over northern areas into the weekend, but the country is drying out. This should be considered the end of the wet season, generally on time this year. The barrage of fronts over the last few weeks has kept soil moisture favorable for pollinating to filling corn but also for winter wheat planting that will start up in May. Additional fronts may move into southern areas next week to continue building moisture for wheat.

Argentina: Overall drier conditions have been favorable for corn and soybean harvest lately. Very little rainfall is forecast this week, with some showers over northern areas on Friday, which should continue to be favorable for fieldwork. Some areas are getting a bit too dry for winter wheat planting that will start up in May, but fronts moving through next week could provide some better moisture.

The player sheet for 5/1 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 35,800 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender earlier this week

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria was considering price offers in an international tender to buy about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat which closed last week with no purchase made.

 

TODAY

US Sold 478.2K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.26M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending April 24.

• Soybean sales rose to 478k tons vs 277k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 310k tons vs 227k in previous week
• Corn sales rose to 1,259k tons vs 1,153k in previous week

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending April 24, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 139k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 636k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Nigeria with 77k tons

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending April 24, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 20k tons of the 34.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 US Soybean Crushings at 206.6M Bushels in March: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 1.5% higher than same period last year
• Crude oil production 2.9% higher than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 12.2% y/y

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 454.2M Bu in March

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 3.8% lower than in March 2024
• In total, mills consumed 504m bu of corn in March, a 3.9% decline over last year
• DDGS production fell to 1.806m tons

USDA attache sees Canada wheat production rising 2% in 2025/26

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Ottawa:

“Production of wheat, corn, barley, and oats is forecast to increase 2% year-over-year to 62.7 million metric tons (MT) in MY (marketing year) 2025/26 and area planted to grains will increase 2.2% year-over-year to 27.5 million hectares, according to Statistics Canada’s planting intentions survey. Only barley area is expected to shrink, though only marginally. Uncertainty around tariffs is prompting Canadian grain handlers to diversify markets for exports of crops not already booked…. Wheat production is forecast to increase 2% over the previous period, on a 2.6% increase in area planted, as indicated in Statistics Canada’s early planting intentions survey published in March. Prairie farmers will generally begin planting wheat in early to mid-May, and mid-April to the first week of May in the southern regions. Post assumes three-year average yields.”

Global Grain Stockpile Forecast Cut to Three-Year Low: FAO

Global grain stockpiles are now seen at 868.2m tons at the end of the 2024-25 season, down from 873.3m tons from the prior outlook, according to a report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

• That would be 1.9% lower y/y, and the lowest ending stock in three seasons
  • The stock-to-use ratio is “still considered to be in a comfortable buffer zone”
• World grain trade in the 2024-25 season is now seen at 478.6m tons, little changed from the prior month’s forecast
  • That would still be the lowest level since 2019-20

FOR 2025:

• World wheat production outlook little changed at 795m tons
  • That would be about steady y/y
• “Prospects point to a record output in Asia, buoyed by India and Pakistan, improved conditions in southern Europe and North Africa, along with stable production in Canada and the Russian Federation”

Tariff Uncertainty Drives Global Food Prices to Two-Year High

Global food prices rose to a two-year high in April, a sign that tariff uncertainty is starting to put a squeeze on trade.

A United Nations index tracking raw commodity costs of food rose to 128.3, a 1% month-on-month jump, taking it levels last seen in March 2023. While it takes time for the impact to filter through to supermarkets and the gauge remains well below a 2022 peak, the move hints at the possibility of pricer groceries after a period when food inflation had eased.

“Currency fluctuations influenced price movements in world markets, while tariff policy adjustments raised market uncertainty,” according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Meanwhile, jumps in the prices of grains, meat and dairy also pushed the index higher.

Price volatility for agricultural goods, stemming from moves such as President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the subsequent retaliation from trade partners, had been flagged earlier this year. Despite a 90-day pause on some levies, global markets have been roiled by the policy back and forth of recent weeks.

India’s April palm oil imports drop 24%, remain below normal levels, dealers say

India’s palm oil imports in April fell by nearly a quarter from the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive month below normal levels, as the tropical oil’s premium over rival soyoil led to higher soyoil purchases, according to five dealers.

Lower-than-normal palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could pressure Malaysian palm oil prices FCPOc3 and support U.S. soyoil futures Boc2.

Palm oil imports in April fell 24% month-on-month to 322,000 metric tons, according to estimates from dealers.

India imported an average of more than 750,000 tons of palm oil each month during the marketing year that ended in October 2024, said the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, which is set to publish its April import data by mid-May.

Palm oil prices have been elevated due to tight supplies, which encouraged price-sensitive buyers to increase soyoil purchases, said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.

Traders have been opting for lower-priced soyoil for the past several months, and imports increased again in April, rising 2% month-on-month to 363,000 tons, dealers said. Sunflower oil imports, meanwhile, fell nearly 6% to 180,000 metric tons, the lowest in seven months.

Lower imports of palm oil and sunflower oil lowered India’s total edible oil imports in April to 865,000 tons, marking an 11% drop from the prior month, according to dealers’ estimates.

Palm oil, however, has now started trading at a discount to soyoil, which is encouraging Indian buyers to increase palm oil purchases for shipments from May onwards, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

Nepal’s edible oil imports were 85,000 tons in April, down from 135,000 tons in March, GGN Research estimated.

More than half of Nepal’s imports are ultimately destined for reexport to the Indian market as refined products since goods from the Himalayan country are tax-free under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), Patel said.

Malaysia April Palm Oil Exports +5.09% M/m: Intertek

Following is a summary of Malaysia’s April palm oil exports according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Total exports for April 2025: 1.121m tons
• Crude palm oil exports: 165,930 tons, 14.8% of total
• EU led all destinations for total exports: 265,808 tons

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending April 29: USDA

The following table shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending April 29, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Drought conditions in corn-growing areas declined by 6 percentage points from the previous week to 20%
• Drought in soybean areas were 15%, also down 6 points from the previous week

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 670k tons in the week ending April 26 from 469k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 43.1% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 65% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $14.00 per short ton, an increase of $0.08 from the previous week

India to Get Some Respite From Scorching Heat as Rains Likely

Several parts of India will witness a drop in maximum temperatures in the coming days due to unseasonal rains, providing some relief to people from searing heat during the peak summer season.

• Northwestern areas of the country will see a gradual fall in temperatures by as much as 5C in the next five days, the India Meteorological Department said in a bulletin
  • NOTE: The country’s highest maximum temperature reached 46.7C Thursday, not far from an all-time high of 51C set in May 2016
  • NOTE: May tends to be the hottest month, with the monsoon rains generally arriving in the southern state of Kerala in early June
• No significant change in temperatures is likely over central and western India during the next 24 hours, but there would be a decline of 2C to 4C in the subsequent four days, according to the bulletin
• Several states, including Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh, will witness rains, thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds until at least Monday
• The weather office advises farmers to move their harvested crops to safer places or cover with plastic sheets
  • NOTE: Harvesting of wheat, the main crop of the winter-sown season, has almost been completed in most of India. Rice will be planted in June when monsoon rains arrive

 

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