Global Ag News for May 17
TODAY—- EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS, NOPA
Wheat prices overnight are down 10 1/4 in SRW, down 10 1/2 in HRW, down 29 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1/2; Soymeal up $0.31; Soyoil down 0.19.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 33 3/4 in SRW, down 57 in HRW, down 41 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 70; Soybeans down 2 3/4; Soymeal down $2.09; Soyoil up 3.50.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 37 3/4 in SRW, down 56 1/4 in HRW, down 52 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 31; Soybeans up 51 1/2; Soymeal down $4.50; Soyoil up 5.00.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 39 yuan ; Soymeal down 18; Soyoil up 30; Palm oil up 50; Corn up 1 — Malasyian Palm is down 52.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 52 ringgit (-1.15%) at 4454 amid prospects for weakening demand from India, the top buyer, where large parts of the nation remained under local lockdowns to fight the world’s worst outbreak of Covid-19.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday. East: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers west Saturday, spreading east Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday. 6-to-10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.
BRAZIL: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers MGDS Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.
ARGENTINA: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.
MALAYSIA: Thunderstorms and heavy rain are seen over most parts of Indonesia’s Sumatra and Kalimantan on Monday, according to the country’s Meteorological, Climatological & Geophysical Agency.
AUSTRALIA: Drier weather across Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and western Victoria over the week will maintain moisture shortages and stress winter wheat germination, according to weather forecaster Maxar. Moisture profile is adequate in Western Australia, but limited showers there throughout week will cause levels to decline
INDIA: Rain is likely in most parts of the country for five days from Monday, according to India Meteorological Department
CHINA: Heavy rains coupled with strong winds and hail seen this week in some areas south of the Yangtze River, which may flood crops and damage wheat and rapeseed crops which are in maturity stage. Heavy rains since May 10 in parts of Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hunan and Zhejiang have also damaged crops in these areas.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sellers 25,000 Corn; net buyers of 2,000 Soybeans; seller 5,000 Soymeal, and; net buyers of 8,500 lots of Soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 14 were: SRW Wheat up 1,451 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,096, Corn down 12,981, Soybeans down 7,072, Soymeal down 4,004, Soyoil up 2,675.
There were changes in registrations (-35 Soyoil, 232 Soymeal, -5 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 88 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 165 Soybeans; 1,020 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,262 HRW Wheat.
- Exporters sold 1.36 million tonnes of U.S. corn to China for 2021/22 delivery, according to the USDA
- Three South Korean importers bought an estimated 263,000 tonnes of corn on Friday in separate deals.
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a daily reporting system, said exporters sold 1.360 million tonnes of U.S. corn to China for 2021/22 delivery.
A Tunisian state agency issued an international tender to purchase up to 27,000 tonnes of vegetable oils
Indonesia’s state procurement agency Bulog issued an international tender buy and import about 180,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat.
Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 89,425 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
Mississippi River Reopens, Freeing Over 1,000 Barges to Transit
There were 1,058 barges queued up on the north and south sides of the I-40 Hernando DeSoto Bridge near Memphis, Tennessee. The waterway had been closed since Tuesday after a crack was found in the bridge.
China grains trade scrambles for data after key source goes dark
Beijing-based Cofeed, a private consultancy set up almost 20 years ago, had established itself as what many in the market regarded as the most comprehensive supplier of information on grains and oilseeds in the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans. It stopped updating data on its website and in feeds to clients on April 29 without explanation.
Vicentin’s Global Creditors See Viterra-Led Takeover Positively
A group of international creditors owed $530m by bankrupt Argentine soy exporter Vicentin view a move by Glencore’s Viterra, Molinos Agro and cooperative ACA to jointly take over the company “positively,” they say in a statement emailed by an external PR firm.
Malaysia’s May 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 695,764 Tons: Amspec
Shipments rise 18.8% m/m from 585,510 tons exported during April 1-15, according to AmSpec Agri on Monday.
CROP SURVEY: U.S. April Soybean Crush Seen at 170.5M Bushels
- Soybean crush seen 0.8% lower vs April of last year, and a decline of 4.2% vs a month ago
- Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.785b lbs vs 2.111b a year earlier
- The National Oilseed Processors Association is scheduled to release its monthly report on May 17.
CORN/CEPEA: Still concerned about the weather, farmers limit supply; price continues firm
- It has rained in some corn-producing regions in Brazil this week, however, the volume was low, and farmers are still concerned about the water deficit, majorly in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and in some areas in southeastern Brazil.
- This week, Conab released a report estimating the average productivity of Brazilian corn crops to be 3.3% down from that in the previous season. This result in largely linked to the lower yield in southeastern and southern Brazil, by 3% and 4.9%, respectively. Agents consulted by Cepea expected productivity estimates to be even lower in the next report, based on the unfavorable weather.
- The output of the first crop is estimated at 24.67 million tons, 3.9% down from that in the previous season, also due to weather issues. For the second crop, the output is forecast at 79.79 million tons, 6.3% up from that in the previous season and 3 million tons lower than that reported in April/21.
- Low rainfall allowed the harvesting to continue in Brazil. According to Seab/Deral, only 2% of the summer crop still needs to be harvested. As regards the second crop, 99% had been sown until May 10.
- In Rio Grande do Sul, the harvesting did not advance much in the last days. According to a report from Emater released yesterday, May 13, the harvesting of the summer crop has reached 85% of the area.
India Wheat procurement grows by 30 pc to 366.61 lakh tn this season
(PTI) — The Centre on Monday said wheat procurement has increased by 30 per cent to 366.61 lakh tonne so far in the ongoing 2021-22 rabi marketing season, benefitting about 37.15 lakh farmers. In the year-ago period, wheat procurement stood at 282.69 lakh tonnes.
Russian Wheat Exports Increase 9% So Far This Season: Agency
Wheat shipments for the current season totaled 36.4m tons as of May 13, the Federal Center of Quality & Safety Assurance for Grain & Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports. Exports of all grains are at 45.8m tons so far this season; no comparative data was given for the year-earlier period
Ukraine grain export prices rise over past week – Reuters News
- Ukrainian wheat export prices have risen $5 a tonne over the past week thanks to global upward trend, the APK-Inform agriculture consultancy said on Monday.
- Bid prices for high-quality soft milling wheat increased to $268-$275 a tonne FOB Black Sea port, APK-Inform said. Feed wheat rose by $4 a tonne to $261-$269 FOB Black Sea.
- Ukraine sold about 57 million tonnes of grain to foreign buyers in the 2019/20 season. The government has said exports could decline to 45.7 million tonnes in 2020/21 due to a weaker harvest. (Full Story)
- APK-Inform also said corn bid export prices rose by up to $11 over the past week to $281-$291 FOB, while bid prices for Ukrainian-origin barley rose by $6 to $244-$253 per tonne FOB Black Sea.
- The consultancy earlier on Monday said it had kept its forecast for Ukraine’s 2021 grain harvest unchanged at 73.6 million tonnes. The harvest totalled 64.9 million tonnes in 2020. (Full Story)
Gales and Hail Damage Some of China’s Wheat Crops, Ministry Says
- Heavy rain, gales and hail in some wheat-growing regions have damaged crops at a critical grain filling stage, China’s agriculture ministry said in a statement over the weekend.
- Parts of Hubei, Shaanxi and Jiangsu experienced heavy rainfall, strong winds and hail from May 14-15
- “Disastrous weather” could adversely affect grain-filling, maturity and harvest of wheat crop
- There are 20 days left before large-scale harvest of summer grains
- Grains harvested during this period account for a fifth of China’s full-year output
Brazil : Grain harvest should reach 271.7 million tons – EUCLID Procurement
The national grain production is estimated at 271.7 million tons, an increase of 5.7% or 14.7 million tonnes in 2019/20 in comparison to that produced. The historic position is due to record soybean production and the estimated growth of total corn. The projection is for the 8th survey of the 2020/2021 harvest of grains, released by Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab).
USDA confirms Kazakhstan wheat export forecast for 2020-21 – Central Asia General Newswire
USDA has confirmed its outlook for Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest at 14.26 million tonnes for 2020-2021, according to the department’s May report.
Mexico City Begins Water Rationing Amid Drought: El Universal
Mexico City and the neighboring Mexico State will begin their water rationing program Sunday, El Universal newspaper reported. Severe drought has brought water levels at main dams to about 40% capacity. Water rationing program set to reduce extractions from Cutzamala system.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.