Global Ag News for May 15.24

TOP HEADLINES

US Approval for GMO Wheat Is ‘Long, Long Overdue’: Bioceres CEO

Clearance from the USDA for Bioceres’s transgenic HB4 wheat is “long, long overdue,” the company’s CEO, Federico Trucco, said on a quarterly earnings call on Tuesday.

• NOTE: Argentina-headquartered Bioceres is on a quest to bring the first GMO wheat to global markets
• Bioceres is awaiting authorization to breed HB4 wheat in the US, since it’s currently only allowed to export the strain there for so-called “food and feed”
• NOTE: From 2022, FDA Green-Lights GMO Wheat in Step Toward Approval
• “It’s surprising that Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina have already approved, but that the US — being such a quick market in terms of GMO clearances — has not yet delivered on in-country production:” Trucco
• Nevertheless, Trucco said, Bioceres is already working with germplasm providers to adapt the HB4 wheat strain for growing in the US.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 in SRW, up 5 3/4 in HRW, up 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 7 1/2; Soymeal up $2.90; Soyoil up 0.28.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 15 in SRW, up 15 3/4 in HRW, up 18 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $4.30; Soyoil down 0.76.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 75 1/4 in SRW, up 53 3/4 in HRW, up 34 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 23 1/2; Soybeans up 59; Soymeal up $24.30; Soyoil up 0.67.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 8.0% in SRW, up 7.3% in HRW, up 2.1% in HRS; Corn is down 0.2%; Soybeans down 5.5%; Soymeal down 2.5%; Soyoil down 8.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 24) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal down 10; Soyoil down 62; Palm oil down 78; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 55. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 55 ringgit (+1.44%) at 3870.

There were changes in registrations (7 Oats, -116 Soymeal). Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 887 Corn; 469 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 89 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 14 were: SRW Wheat up 2,286 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,338, Corn up 8,478, Soybeans up 2,694, Soymeal down 1,347, Soyoil down 468.

Northern Plains: Several systems will move through over the next week. Some areas of heavy rain are forecast, but others will see little or none. Planting windows should be open for most areas, but others may find some difficulty, especially those that saw heavy rain last week. Temperatures will waffle around as well, but trend cooler than normal starting this weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers went through the region over the weekend and Monday, including some needed rain in portions of southwestern Kansas and other dry/drought areas. Several more systems will move through the region this week and weekend. Chances are better away from the southwest, but there is potential for at least some.

Midwest: A system continues to move across the region with more widespread precipitation Tuesday, hitting wetter areas with more rain. Several more systems are waiting in the pipeline to move through the region going through next week. While each may not bring a ton of rainfall on its own, when added together, we should see pockets of heavy rain that would keep planting slower than normal in some areas. For those with seed in the ground, the consistent rains should be favorable, however.

Delta: Several systems going through this week and next are likely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. The rain is keeping soils moist for newly-planted crops, but making it a bit more difficult for those that haven’t. However, the region has seen good planting progress in the face of the wetter conditions so far this spring.

Canadian Prairies: The storm track is busy through the region for the next couple of weeks, though the path from the northwest will mean more isolated to scattered showers and less widespread heavy rain. Still, it may be enough to produce delays should some areas get hit multiple times. Temperatures will trend below normal starting Friday and likely going through next week.

Brazil: A front continued to produce heavy rainfall across the south Monday, but shifts a touch farther north into the southern portions of safrinha corn territory with some showers for Tuesday. Another front reloads over Rio Grande do Sul with heavy rain on Thursday and Friday, exacerbating the flooding there. The front will shift north again into southern safrinha growing areas for the weekend. Central Brazil continues to be hot and dry though, and crop conditions continue to fall there.

Argentina: Cold and mostly dry conditions over the country continue through next week, though far northern areas will catch some rain at times. Overall, the potential for harvest progress continues to increase, though the colder conditions have been producing frosts, which isn’t welcome for late-developing crops or newly-planted winter wheat.

The player sheet for 5/14 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 405,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, including 135,000 tons for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year and 270,000 tons for shipment in 2024/25.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog’s international tender to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice seeks arrival of the staple in Indonesia by July 31
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 121,516 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on May 16.
• FAILED WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED WHEAT AND BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 metric tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by Aug. 31 and arrive in Japan by Oct. 31, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on May 15.

 

 

TODAY

CROP TOUR: Kansas Wheat Yields Seen Rising Despite Dry Fields

Kansas’ hard red winter wheat yields were estimated above a year ago thanks to rains late last year that boosted fields before conditions recently turned drier, according to scouts Tuesday on the first day of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual crop tour.

• Yields were estimated at 43.6 bu/acre after nine stops on one route that went through Dickinson, Saline, Ellsworth, Rice and Barton counties
• That’s up from 37.7 bu/acre on this route last year traveling from Manhattan, Kansas, to Colby
• Some wheat fields had strong starts due to ample early-season rainfall; however, fields further west missed some of that rain and yield potential decreased as the route progressed westward
• “It’s dropped off as its gotten drier,” said Dave Green, crop tour leader and executive vice president at the Wheat Quality Council
• “There are a lot of places that wheat’s been struggling”
• NOTE: Crop tour will publish full findings from the first day later Tuesday

 

CROP SURVEY: US April Soybean Crush Seen at 185.5M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of seven analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on May 13-14.

• Soybean crush seen 7.1% higher vs April of last year, and a decline of 5.5% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.895b lbs vs 1.957b a year earlier

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending May 10 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 984k b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 24.136m bbl vs 24.2m a week ago
• Would be the lowest since December

 

Brazil 2023-24 Soybean Crop Seen at 147.7M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 146.5m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 148.3m tons
• Yield seen lower at 3,229 kg/ha vs 3,239 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 45.733m ha vs 45.235m ha last month
• Corn production est. raised to 111.6m tons vs 111m tons

 

NOPA April US soybean crush seen at 183.072 million bushels

U.S. soybean processing slowed in April from a record crush the previous month due to narrowing margins and seasonal downtime at processing plants, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) monthly report on Wednesday.

NOPA members, who handle 95% of all U.S.-processed soybeans, were projected to have crushed 183.072 million bushels last month, according to 10 analysts polled by Reuters.

That would mark a 6.8% decrease from the record 196.406 million bushels crushed in March and would be the smallest monthly crush since September. But it would be up 5.7% from the April 2023 crush of 173.232 million bushels, and the largest April crush on record.

U.S. soybean processors have expanded capacity and built new plants over the past several years to capitalize on rising vegetable oil demand from renewable fuels makers. But a recent downturn in demand, as biofuel producers turned to cheaper alternatives like imported used cooking oil, eroded crush margins.

The Biden administration on Tuesday raised tariffs on some Chinese imports, but used cooking oil was not among the products targeted despite recent market rumors.

“NOPA was not proactively pushing for tariffs,” NOPA CEO Kailee Tkacz Buller said in an emailed statement.

NOPA is concerned about used cooking oil imports and exploring “workable solutions that can address the impact on our domestic market,” she said, but did not provide details.

April crush estimates ranged from 173.980 million to 191.000 million bushels, with a median of 184.100 million bushels. The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Wednesday. Soyoil supplies held by NOPA members as of April 30 were forecast at 1.882 billion lbs, based on estimates from seven analysts. That would be up 1.7% from 1.851 billion at the end of March but down 3.9% from the 1.957 billion lbs at the end of April 2023. Stocks estimates ranged from 1.800 billion to 1.975 billion lbs, with a median of 1.885 billion lbs.

 

Crop tour finds northern Kansas wheat yield potential at 3-year high

Crop scouts projected on Tuesday, the first day of an annual three-day tour of Kansas, an average yield for hard red winter wheat in the northern portion of the top wheat producing state at 49.9 bushels per acre (bpa), the highest in three years.

The estimate was up from the Wheat Quality Council tour’s five-year average of 42.7 bpa for the same area from 2018-2023. It suggested a strong rebound from last year’s weather-damaged crop, when the tour’s day-one estimate was just 29.8 bpa, a two-decade low.

“Last year was such a terrible year with the drought. The crop looks good compared to the previous year,” said Justin Gilpin, CEO of the Kansas Wheat Commission.

Grain traders, millers, exporters and global buyers are monitoring tour findings this week as tightening global stocks and crop-damaging weather in top supplier Russia rallied futures KWv1 to the highest in nearly eight months.

Although cheap grain from the Black Sea region has in recent years diminished the United States’ standing as a top wheat exporter, a widening drought in the Plains wheat belt has supported prices.

Wheat conditions across northern Kansas varied wildly, scouts found on Tuesday.

Groups touring south-central Kansas found drought and frost damage, while fields in the northwest looked healthy and green.

Scouts noted a prevalence of stripe rust, but concerns over drought outweighed worries over the crop-damaging fungus.

Tour scouts surveyed 206 fields on Tuesday between Manhattan and Colby, Kansas. The tour is scheduled to release its final yield forecast for Kansas on Thursday.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 14.13 Million Tns In May Versus 13.21 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.13 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 13.21 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.43 MILLION TNS IN MAY VERSUS 2.34 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 828,159 TNS IN MAY VERSUS 548,480 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 24,150 TNS IN MAY VERSUS 24,150 TNS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK- ANEC

 

SovEcon Lowers Russian 2024 Wheat Crop Forecast to 85.7M Tons

SovEcon cut its estimate for Russia’s wheat crop to 85.7 million tons from 89.6 million tons, CEO Andrey Sizov said by email.

• The downward revision is due to a loss of crops to unseasonable frost
  • Approximately 3.9 million tons of wheat have been damaged
• Forecasts about 1 million tons of all crops may need replanting
• “This situation intensified in early May when, instead of the much-needed rain, Russian winter wheat experienced a severe cold snap, with minimum temperatures reaching levels not seen in decades”: Sizov
• NOTE: Black Sea crops had previously been impacted by a period of dry weather

 

Itaú BBA Sees up to 2.5M Tons of Soybeans Lost in Brazil Floods

Floods in key crop producing state of Rio Grande do Sul could result in losses of 1m to 2.5m tons of soybeans, according to a Tuesday report from bank Itaú BBA.

• That’s a portion of an estimated 5 million tons the state is yet to harvest this season
• Product stored in warehouses could also suffer damage
• Rice production could be reduced by as much as 341,000 tons
  • That’s equal to a 3.2% drop in total Brazilian rice output
  • Shortage of rice in Brazilian market seen as “unlikely”
• Wheat farmers also risk missing ideal planting period for new crop
  • Planting typically starts at end of May and any delays could result in lower yields

 

France Sees Spring Barley, Corn Areas Rising This Year: Ministry

French spring-barley and corn plantings are expected to increase y/y, following a drop in winter crops that couldn’t be sown due to bad weather, the agriculture ministry said in a report.

• Spring-barley area seen up 12.2% y/y to about 502,000 hectares
  • Still, that remains 15.8% below the prior five-year average
• Corn plantings seen rising 9.6% y/y to 1.4m hectares
  • That remains 5% below five-year average
• Total grain area to drop 3.2% y/y, a third consecutive annual decrease, despite the increase in spring grains
• Outlook for soft-wheat and durum-wheat plantings little changed versus the prior report
  • NOTE: The majority of French wheat plantings happen before winter; heavy autumn rains disrupted field work
• Sugar-beet planting estimate also kept about steady at 398,000 hectares
• Sunflower area seen stable y/y at about 823,000 hectares
• Soybean area to fall 5.5% to 149,000 hectares y/y

 

EU Crop Trade Data Absent for Weeks, Raising Demand Questions

The European Union’s grains export data has been missing since late March as technical issues persist, obscuring the pace of demand just as wheat prices soar.

The absence of the weekly figures on the trade of grains and oilseeds from member states — released by the European Union Commission — was initially attributed to “persisting technical issues” for several weeks before the releases stopped altogether. Currently, available data runs through March 27.

The data provides market participants with transparency on the flow of goods rather than having to obtain trade line-ups, said Alexandre Marie, head of market research at Agritel, a unit of Argus Media. Despite a dip in export volumes ahead of the new marketing year, the data is still valuable, he said.

Paris wheat futures are trading at the highest level in over nine months. With the EU still vying with Russia for wheat exports, details on the pace of demand will help clarify whether the recent rally will be maintained.

The EU’s trade year runs from July until June, with the bloc exporting 31.1 million tons of wheat in the last season.

The delays are due to technical issues with loading new data and should be resolved in the coming days, according to a EU Commission spokesperson. The organization gave no other details.

 

 

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