Global Ag News For May 13.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Malaysia palm oil stocks hit 6-month high in April on output surge

• Palm oil stocks rise 19.4% m/m to 1.87 million tons
• Output jumps 21.5% m/m to 1.69 million tons
• Exports rise 9.6% m/m to 1.10 million tons

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks jumped to their highest level in six months in April, as production surged to a decade-high for the month while local consumption dropped, data from the industry regulator showed on Tuesday.

The rise in inventory in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producing country after Indonesia, could weigh on benchmark futures, traders said.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks increased for a second consecutive month in April, rising 19.4% from March to 1.87 million metric tons, the highest since October, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said.

Crude palm oil production was up 21.5% in April from March to 1.69 million tons, the highest for the month since 2015. Palm oil exports also rose for a second straight month, rising by 9.6% to 1.1 million tons, the MPOB said.

Malaysia’s palm oil consumption in April fell to 338,737 tons from 453,046 tons a month ago.

A Reuters survey had forecast inventories at 1.79 million tons, with output seen at 1.62 million tons and exports at 1.1 million tons.

“The stock buildup is bearish for palm oil, but it currently trades at a discount to competing oils. As long as this discount exists, palm oil will attract demand,” said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

The market was surprised by the strong rebound in production in April, as nobody expected it to rise above 1.65 million tons, said a Kuala Lumpur-based trader with a palm oil producing company.

“We’re heading into the peak production months, so we can expect to see higher production in the coming months too,” the trader said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil down 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 14 1/2 in SRW, down 15 in HRW, down 14 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans up 13 1/2; Soymeal up $3.20; Soyoil up 1.09.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 23 1/2 in SRW, down 27 in HRW, down 17 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 32 1/2; Soybeans up 20 3/4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil up 0.69.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 9.5% in SRW, down 10.9% in HRW, up 3.5% in HRS; Corn is down 4.0%; Soybeans up 6.8%; Soymeal down 5.4%; Soyoil up 24.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 4 yuan; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 38; Palm oil up 54; Corn down 19 — Malaysian Palm is up 79.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 79 ringgit (+2.07%) at 3893.

 

There were changes in registrations (-7 SRW Wheat, 67 Corn, 40 Soymeal). Registration total: 240 SRW Wheat contracts; 1 Oats; 202 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 986 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 598 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of May 12 were: SRW Wheat up 4,601 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,131, Corn down 12,484, Soybeans up 16,325, Soymeal up 2,236, Soyoil up 2,699.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 12 MAY 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth will prevail across most U.S. crop regions through 5 days, before cooler weather reemerges in the 6-15 day period across many areas
• SOUTH AMERICA: Anomalous heavy rainfall is expected in Buenos Aires, Argentina later this week
• BLACK SEA: Cool and wet weather will prevail across the Black Sea region through the next 10 days, a favorable trend for dry croplands
• EAST ASIA: Warmth will prevail across China during the next 10+ days, though the precipitation pattern will be more mixed

Northern Plains: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures well above normal Tuesday, near falling Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers southeast Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Midwest West: Isolated showers east Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday night-Friday, especially north. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal northwest and near to above normal southeast Saturday-Wednesday.

LASTING DRY WEATHER IN BRAZIL, WHILE PARTS OF ARGENTINA PICK UP HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEK

What to Watch:

• Warm and dry weather in Brazil
• Localized high rainfall in Argentina

 

The player sheet for 5/12 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to Mexico including 24,000 tons for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year that began September 1, 2024, and the remaining 96,000 tons for delivery in 2025/26.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued a new international tender to purchase up to 320,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from Argentina or Brazil only.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Crop 62% Planted, Soybeans 48% Planted

Highlights from the report:

• Corn planted 62% vs 40% last week, and 47% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 48% vs 30% last week, and 34% a year ago
• Winter wheat 54% G/E vs 51% last week, and 50% a year ago
• Spring wheat planted 66% vs 44% last week, and 59% a year ago
• Cotton planted 28% vs 21% last week, and 32% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.224m Tons of Corn for Export, 426k of Soybeans

In week ending May 8, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 426k tons vs 334k the previous wk, 433k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,224k tons vs 1,617k the previous wk, 1,005k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: May 8

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending May 8 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Egypt-bound shipments made up 127k tons of the 426k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

Outbreak of Disease May Hurt U.S. Wheat Supply — Market Talk

Mature winter wheat crops, as well as new spring crops, face the risk of being decimated by a parasitic outbreak reported in fields. Farmers in the Plains say that with tough drought conditions, a pest called the wheat curl mite is reproducing and spreading. “The wheat curl mite is a small but mighty adversary of Kansas wheat producers,” says Kansas Wheat in a note, adding that the mite spreads diseases like Wheat Streak Mosaic Virus (WSMV) . Tell-tale signs of infection like distinct discolorations are present in fields all over the state, says the group, and could get worse if this fall is warmer than usual. “It’s a perfect storm for mite populations to stay at high levels and increase later in the season,” said Andersen Onofre of Kansas Wheat.

 

Brazil soybean premiums fall after US-China tariff deal

Soybean export premiums fell in Brazil on Monday after the United States and China mutually slashed trade tariffs, reflecting expectations that the Asian nation could buy more U.S. soybeans than anticipated amid the trade war, according to analysts.

Domestic port premiums tend to rise if demand for the commodity produced in Brazil increases, and the indicator hit around $1.4 per bushel in early April with the escalation of global trade tensions then. With a 90-day drop in the tariffs, however, farmers in the U.S. could benefit from higher Chinese demand for the oilseed.

On Monday, port premiums at Brazil’s Paranagua port fell 10% from Friday, to $0.5 per bushel.

Rafael Silveira, an analyst at Safras & Mercado, said the agreed tariff reduction could prompt China to seek more U.S. soybeans, which are still being planted for the 2025/26 crop. Meanwhile, Brazil is already exporting its largest crop in history, of about 170 million tons.

China cannot forego U.S. soybeans because relying solely on South American soybeans would be risky for the world’s largest soybean importer, said grain broker Adelson Gasparin. He also brought up the competitiveness factor.

“With the global supply [of soybeans] growing faster than demand, China may have a better chance of bargaining prices,” Gasparin said.

Silveira said the U.S.-China agreement announced could significantly change market dynamics, especially given a scenario of reduced soybean area in the U.S.

On Monday, the USDA said U.S. soy farmers are poised to reduce harvested area to 82.7 million acres (33.5 million hectares), compared to 86.1 million acres (34.8 million hectares) in the previous harvest.

Raphael Bulascoschi, StoneX’s market intelligence analyst, said that the U.S. soybean harvest begins in September, when the export program will be most active. For now, he said caution is needed to understand the definitive effects of the truce on tariffs.

“We saw the market reacting with more optimism (to the announcement of the tariff reduction), but that does not mean that we will see a sudden jump in soybeans toward China,” said Bulascoschi.

 

EU Members Support List that Ranks Deforestation Risk of Nations

In a vote on Monday, EU member states backed a proposed list that benchmarks countries across the world according to their level of deforestation risk, a person familiar with the matter said.

• Under the system, the US and all EU nations are deemed as having a low risk of deforestation, while Brazil will have a standard level
  • Only countries covered by UN and EU sanctions will be labeled “high risk,” according to a guidance document published last year
• NOTE: The full list should be published next month ahead of a June 30 deadline

 

France Cuts Soft-Wheat Plantings Outlook; Corn Areas Shrink

French farmers planted an estimated 4.6m hectares of soft-wheat for the coming season, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said in a Tuesday report.

• That’s slightly below an April estimate for 4.63m hectares, and would be 9.1% higher y/y.
• Winter soft-wheat seen at 4.57m hectares, steady from April estimate
  • NOTE: The vast majority of France’s soft-wheat crop is winter grain; a minimal amount is spring sown
• Winter-barley area seen at 1.22m hectares, steady from April estimate
  • Total barley plantings, including spring varieties, are seen at 1.74m hectares, 3.8% lower than the prior year
  • Spring barley plantings seen at 523k hectares, down 7.2%
• Corn plantings seen at 1.48m hectares, down 7.6% from previous year and 3.3% below five-year average
  • Over the last ten years, corn areas have decreased on average by 1.1% per year
• Rapeseed plantings estimate kept about steady at the April estimate of 1.29m hectares
• Durum-wheat area seen at 222k hectares, down 7.3% from previous year and reaching the lowest level since 1993

 

Cresud Plans Argentina Farm Acquisitions as FX Spurs Land Values

Closing of the gap between different FX rates in Argentina as the government relaxes capital controls is key to improving outlook for the agriculture industry and is also spurring the appreciation of rural land prices, Cresud CEO Alejandro Elsztain said during an earnings call.

• Land prices are already climbing, but they remain much cheaper than in the US or Brazil
• Cresud is planning purchases of farms that have a lot of room for appreciation
  • “We think we are going to buy some new pieces in Argentina”: Elsztain
• Cresud forecast a jump in its production of crops in South America, mainly soy and corn, for the fiscal year ending June 30 to 867,000 metric tons from last year’s 707,000
• Increase thanks in part to corn yields in Argentina, estimated to be 14% better than in 2024
• US-China trade truce will drive up prices in Chicago, but reduce premiums in South American: Elsztain

 

Global Eggs Says Acquisition of Hillandale Farms Concluded in US

Company controlled by Brazilian Ricardo Faria paid $1.1 billion for the Pennsylvania-based company.

• Hillandale Farms management team is staying the company, Faria says in an interview
• Global Eggs also owns one of Brazil’s top egg producers, Granja Faria, as well as Spanish company Hevo
• Deal was announced late March

 

Biofuel Credit 45Z to Be Extended 4 Years Under Draft Tax Bill

Expiration of a clean fuel production tax, known as 45Z, would be extended by four years through 2031 under draft text released by Republican lawmakers ahead of a US House Ways and Means Committee hearing to consider tax legislation.

• The proposed bill language also calls to restrict the credit only for producers of fuel made with feedstock from the US, Mexico or Canada
• The draft bill would repeal the transferability of 45z, also known as the Clean Fuel Production Credit
• NOTE: Makers of biomass-based diesel, corn ethanol and lower-carbon jet fuel have been waiting for the Trump administration to weigh in on the Biden-era tax credit that’s meant to boost US output of more climate-friendly fuels made from renewable materials including soybeans and corn
  • Renewable fuel lobbying groups are pushing for various changes to 45Z in legislation that would extend President Donald Trump’s tax cuts
• Other proposed measures related to 45z include:
  • Lifecycle greenhouse-gas output would be adjusted to exclude emissions attributed to indirect land use change
  • On transportation fuels derived from animal manure, a distinct emissions rate would be provided with respect to specific feedstocks, including dairy, swine, poultry manure and other sources deemed appropriate by the Treasury secretary
  • Changes would apply to emission rates published for taxable years starting in 2026
• Draft bill doesn’t include adjustment for qualifying sales

 

StoneX to acquire French grain broker Plantureux

U.S.-based StoneX Group said on Monday it has agreed to acquire French grain brokerage Plantureux et Associes as it seeks to expand in agricultural commodity markets in Europe.

The agreement also marks a further consolidation step for financial services firm StoneX after its $900 million deal last month to acquire futures brokerage R.J. O’Brien.

Plantureux is a leading futures and physical broker in France, the European Union’s largest grain-producing country and home to Euronext’s wheat futures market, an international price benchmark. GRA/EU

Financial terms of the deal, which is subject to regulatory approval, were not disclosed.

StoneX and Plantureux formed a partnership last December covering clearing of derivatives.

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.