Global Ag News for Mar 27.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Nutrien sees no major impact from Black Sea deal

Nutrien said on Wednesday it doesn’t think the proposed Black Sea shipping deal between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. will significantly affect the North American or global fertilizer market this year.

“We do not expect the announced agreements will have a material impact on global supplies of fertilizers or grains in 2025,” said Nutrien spokesperson Shawn Churchill in a statement to Reuters.

“Russian fertilizer exports have largely adapted to the restrictions that were in place and are already operating near full capacity.”

Nutrien, the world’s top potash producer, believes there is little potential for increased exports from Russia and Ukraine in the short term.

The three-country Black Sea deal has an unclear future. Russia has listed conditions required for it to comply with it, including lifting some restrictions on Russian banks, and much commercial traffic has already been occurring despite the military conflict.

Russian and Belarusian potash and other fertilizers have been struggling to get out into world markets since European Union nations imposed restrictions on exports from those countries; Ukrainian ports are on the other side of the war line; and Russian Black Sea exports have been sailing through a war zone. However, alternate routes have been developed, allowing fertilizer to reach many buyers.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 23 in SRW, down 21 1/4 in HRW, down 15 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $6.00; Soyoil up 0.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 1/2 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 17 1/4; Soybeans down 22; Soymeal down $5.90; Soyoil down 1.36.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.9% in SRW, up 1.5% in HRW, down 1.0% in HRS; Corn is down 1.4%; Soybeans up 0.6%; Soymeal down 4.3%; Soyoil up 7.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 21 yuan; Soymeal down 20; Soyoil up 20; Palm oil up 28; Corn down 7 — Malaysian Palm is up 54.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 54 ringgit (+1.27%) at 4313.

There were changes in registrations (-60 Soybeans). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 760 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 26 were: SRW Wheat up 2,180 contracts, HRW Wheat down 581, Corn up 5,354, Soybeans down 6,696, Soymeal up 2,057, Soyoil down 1,915.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 26 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold temperatures in early April have trended milder in the forecast across the U.S., only appearing as moderate episodes to the benefit of all crops
• SOUTH AMERICA: Argentina temperatures will become much cooler next week, which could slow the corn/soybean harvest
• AFRICA: A dry spell through the next couple weeks will elevate downside risks to Ethiopia coffee development, though conditions are not extreme
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Moderate rains are in store for most palm oil regions of Indonesia/Malaysia through the next 15 days, though flooding risks do exist for eastern Kalimantan

 

HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE ARGENTINIAN PAMPAS MAY AFFECT EARLY HARVESTS

What to Watch:

• Over the next 5 days, crop regions of the Pampas will record 50-70 mm rainfall, which may affect corn/soybean harvest progress
• Local rainfall surpluses in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul will ease soil moisture deficits ahead of crucial 2nd corn development stages

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers continue to fall this week as disturbances move through. Drought is very much a concern heading into the season and the recent rain isn’t enough to turn the momentum around. However, a larger system this weekend that could clip southern areas with decent precipitation will likely set up a more active pattern through the region going into April, bringing some better precipitation chances.

Central/Southern Plains: Some streaks of light showers may move through, but most areas continue to be warm and dry this week, an unfavorable combination for winter wheat. However, a system will move through Friday through the weekend, with potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather pattern may be more active next week, but the forecast favors northern areas over the southwestern Plains, unfavorable for wheat.

Midwest: Streaks of showers will continues the rest of the week. A warmup is forecast on Friday ahead of another big storm system moving through this weekend with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for some northern snow. The weather pattern may stay active next week with more rounds of showers, thunderstorms, and snow. If it does, some areas may be a bit too wet to start on early fieldwork, but it may also help with the drought situation.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Though some streaks of rain have been passing through this week, warmer and drier conditions should have been beneficial for drying out soils and doing some early fieldwork. A system will move through Friday through this weekend with more showers and thunderstorms, including potential for severe weather and more heavy rain that could slow progress down.

 

The player sheet for 3/26 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in an international tender
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grain buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of importers in the Philippines is believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia on Friday
• CORN TENDERS: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) issued two international tenders to purchase together up to 280,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• BLACK SEA MARITIME DEAL: The Kremlin said a number of conditions must be met before a Black Sea maritime security deal negotiated with the United States can be activated.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17 from March 12
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on March 27.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.9% to 27.35M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.759 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.053m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.084m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending March 20.

• Corn est. range 600k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,008k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 900k tons, with avg of 492k

 

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Down ~6% So Far This Season

Ukraine’s total grain exports for the current season have so far reached 32.2m tons, down almost 6% from a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Exports for season ending May 31 include:
  • 12.9m tons of wheat, down 4,4%
  • 2.2m tons of barley, up 12%
  • 16.6m tons of corn, down 10%
• Exports in March were at ~3m tons, about a third less than in the same month last year

 

Brazil Soybeans Exports Heading for Record in March: ANEC

Soybeans exports out of world’s top supplier Brazil are heading for a record this March, according to preliminary data from exporters’ group ANEC.

• Shipments of the oilseed are seen at 15 million-16.1 million tons this month, up from 13.5 million in March of 2024
• At the upper end of the range, exports in March 2025 would be the highest on record for a single month
  • While line up data points to record shipments, ANEC’s estimates consider the possibility of a slow pace of cargo loading affecting exports
• NOTE: Strong shipments were expected this month after farmers moved to quickly harvest this years’ crop, following earlier delays in planting

 

South Africa Raises 2025 Total Corn-Crop Estimate by 4.7%

The total commercial corn crop for 2025 is projected at 14.6 million tons compared with 12.85 million tons in the previous season, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee says in its production forecast for the year.

• The new estimate is 4.7% biggest than the first forecast, and the crop would be 13% bigger than 2024’s
• The yield for corn is 5.61 tons/hectare
• The production forecast of white corn is 7.7 million tons, which is 4.1% more than the first estimate and 27% more than a year earlier
• The yellow-corn production forecast is 6.9 million tons, which is 5.3% more than the first estimate and 1% more than a year earlier

 

Brazil soybean harvest season comes close to end on schedule

2024/25 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 169.3 [166.7–171.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil soybean production is fractionally (<1%) decreased to 169.3 [166.7–171.8] million tons as the season largely comes to an end on schedule albeit few remaining local delays. Our current position is slightly above both the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 169 million tons (released on 11 March) and the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 167.4 million tons (released on 13 March). A continued trend of warmth and dryness largely remained in place over the past two weeks across Brazil’s most soybean crop regions, facilitating rapid harvest after a historically delayed start. As of 23 March, Brazil’s soybeans were 76.4% harvested nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 24 March), now well ahead of last year’s pace of 66.3%. Brazil’s third largest soybean producing state Rio Grande do Sul’s yield risks continue to warrant attention, as some soy crops there remain in the late pod-fill stage still adversely affected by lack of rain and abnormal warmth. Disappointing yield prospects there should continue to be monitored closely. Nevertheless, this season’s national-level soybean yield and production should be well on track for a record-breaking year.

 

Indonesia Jan. Palm Oil Exports Fall to 1.96m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell to 1.96m tons in January from 2.06m tons in December, according to Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output fell to 4.184m tons from 4.24m tons in December
• Palm oil stockpiles rise to 2.936m tons from 2.576m tons in December
• Palm oil domestic consumption fell to 1.871m tons from 2.187m tons in December
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption fell to 916k tons from 1.046m tons in December

 

Indonesia Sets CPO Reference Price at $961.54/Ton for April

The trade ministry raises crude palm oil reference price for April to $961.54 a ton from $954.50 a ton in March, according to a decree posted on website.

• The reference price will keep CPO export tax at $124/ton
• NOTE: Exporters must also pay additional CPO levy at 7.5% of the reference price

 

Brazil Presses Mexico to Import More Pork Before US Tariffs

Brazil is pressing Mexico to allow pork exports from more meat plants as Latin America’s biggest economy seeks to win new markets by taking advantage of Donald Trump’s trade wars.

Officials have renewed a request for Mexico to allow shipments from processing factories in more states, according to Luis Rua, secretary of commerce and international relations at Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry. Only seven facilities in the state of Santa Catarina are currently allowed to export pork to Mexico.

The request to Mexico’s sanitary authority Senasica comes as Trump’s tariffs are scheduled to come into force on April 2. While it’s unclear if Mexico would retaliate, rising imports from Brazil would hurt the US, which counts Mexico as it’s biggest market.

“We started working in partnership with Mexican associations and sanitary authorities of Senasica to explain why it’s important to issue licenses for more plants,” Adriane Cruvinel, an attaché for Brazil’s agriculture ministry in Mexico, said in an interview. “It’s a move that’s happening out of concern for the tariff war and corroborates the interest they already had in Brazilian meat.”

Officials at Senasica couldn’t confirm discussions with Brazil.

 

 

 

 

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