Global Ag News for Mar 26.24

TOP HEADLINES

Baltimore Bridge Collapses After Ship Rams Into Overpass

A major commuter bridge in Baltimore collapsed after being rammed by a container ship, causing vehicles to plunge into the water and threatening chaos at one of the most important ports on the US East Coast.

The Maryland Transportation Authority issued an alert on X telling drivers not to use Interstate 695. Kevin Cartwright of the Baltimore City Fire Department described it as “a mass casualty, multi-agency incident” an audio interview with CNN, adding as many as 20 people could be in the water.

The disaster, which happened early Tuesday, is likely to cause huge disruption — both for shipping at one of the busiest ports on the US East Coast and on the roads — now that a key link has been severed on the major highway encircling Baltimore.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 6 3/4; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 0.19.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $0.70; Soyoil up 1.20.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 21 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans up 61 3/4; Soymeal up $10.60; Soyoil up 3.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.5% in SRW, down 8.8% in HRW, down 9.2% in HRS; Corn is down 7.3%; Soybeans down 7.0%; Soymeal down 12.0%; Soyoil up 2.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 50 yuan; Soymeal down 3; Soyoil up 26; Palm oil up 28; Corn down 14 — Malaysian Palm is down 13. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 13 ringgit (-0.31%) at 4234.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 25 were: SRW Wheat down 2,957 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,031, Corn up 7,893, Soybeans up 861, Soymeal down 55, Soyoil up 2,487.

Brazil: A front settled into central Brazil over the weekend where it produced good showers for safrinha corn. The front will remain stalled almost all week, promising to build in some decent subsoil moisture where reserves have been more limited. At the same time, areas to the south will be much drier and have to rely on that built up soil moisture earlier than normal, which may be harmful if levels get too low too quickly. A little system moving through early next week may provide at least a few showers.

Argentina: A front left to the north late last week and meant cooler and drier conditions over the weekend. Outside of a small disturbance with a few showers for southern areas Tuesday and Wednesday, it should be dry this week, which is not ideal for filling corn and soybeans but will allow for some of the wetter areas to dry out a bit. A system should bring showers through this weekend.

Europe: A system moved through much of the continent over the weekend with scattered showers. Another big storm will close in on the UK early this week, sending several waves of showers through the continent throughout this week and probably portions of next week as well. Precipitation will be heavier in the west, which favors Spain but not the UK or France, which continue to be too wet.

Black Sea: A system will move through early this week with some areas of showers, but won’t be widespread and some areas of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have been too dry over the last few weeks. Other systems going through Europe will likely escape around the region, which brings in warm air instead. That favors developing winter wheat, but also dries out soils which are going to hope for a slightly more active period next week.

Australia: A front brought scattered showers to Queensland over the weekend, which continues for the next few days. Drier weather elsewhere is fine for harvesting cotton and sorghum, but not for building in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting, which begins in mid-April. However, the ending El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year.

Northern Plains: Cold air led to a burst of snow moving into the region over the weekend and a storm system brought moderate winds that produced some blizzard conditions in spots as well. The snow has shifted to the eastern Dakotas for Monday before exiting early Tuesday. Some additional showers may move through later this week and weekend, but models are not consistent with any of the details to the system moving through.

Central/Southern Plains: A system built in over the weekend with scattered showers on Sunday and continues to impact the region on Monday. Though precipitation is more limited in this region, some heavier rain fell in Nebraska and that will be followed by a band of snow for Monday from the Panhandles northeastward. Cold air will build in for a few days behind this system, which will bring about some 10s through much of HRW territory that could cause damage. The cold relents by late week with more showers being possible late week and weekend before another system goes through early next week. That storm track looks farther south, which would bring more widespread precipitation to the region if it continues that track.

Midwest: A big system moved into the region over the weekend and is bringing heavy snow to the northwest with showers and thunderstorms farther south and east through Tuesday. Some thunderstorms could be severe. Cold air will fill in behind the storm this week with the coldest air over the deeper snow pack across Minnesota. The rest of the region will warm up ahead of the next disturbance later this week. Some showers may fall because of that system this weekend. Another system that may stay to the south may bring a renewed shot of colder temperatures for early April. The precipitation from the more active pattern should benefit soil moisture ahead of spring planting.

Delta: A cold front will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through the region on Monday, potentially with some severe weather. Another storm will move through early next week with more rainfall. Soils are in good shape across most of the region and big enough breaks between storms could lead to some early planting where it is not too wet. Cooler and wetter conditions may limit planting in most places, though.

The player sheet for 3/25 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 5,500 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• VEGETABLE OIL TENDER: Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said on Monday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international tender for arrival May 1-15 and/or May 16-30. The deadline for offers is March 28.
• MILLING WHEAT SALE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought an estimated 30,200 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. on Friday.
• RAW CANE SUGAR TENDER DEADLINE EXTENDED: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC,) on Monday extended the deadline for offers in its latest sugar tender for 50,000 metric tons of raw cane sugar to March 30, from a previous deadline of March 23. GASC said it is seeking offers that will remain valid until April 1 and added shipment periods in June and/or July and/or August.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Monday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,800 metric tonnes of rice mainly to be sourced from the United States and China
• RICE TENDER: An international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice seeks arrival of the grain in Indonesia by May 31.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.228m Tons of Corn for Export, 769k of Soybeans

In week ending March 21, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 315k tons vs 394k the previous wk, 404k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 769k tons vs 700k the previous wk, 893k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,228k tons vs 1,326k the previous wk, 688k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: March 21

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending March 21 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 517k tons of the 768k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

Canada Crushed 898K Tons of Canola in February: StatsCan

Canola processing rose 10.6% in February from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Monday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 382k tons, and meal output at 522k tons
• Aug.-Feb. crushings up 12.4% from year ago to 6.412m tons
• NOTE: Canada is the world’s top canola grower

US Winter Wheat Crop Conditions by State for March 24: USDA

The following shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of March 24, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

• Kansas good/excellent rating lowered to 53% for the week ending Sunday vs 55% in the week ending March 17
• Oklahoma conditions improved by 9 percentage points, Texas up 5 points

Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean harvest hits 69%, says AgRural

Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2023/24 cycle had reached 69% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 6 percentage points from the previous week.

The figure was slightly below the 70% seen at the same time a year earlier.

Harvesting is now concentrated in the Matopiba region and in Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, “where producers are reporting good yields,” AgRural said in a statement.

Second corn planting in Brazil’s center-south has now been completed, AgRural added, slightly earlier than in the previous when 96% of the area had been sown at this point.

“With sowing over, the focus now shifts to the weather and its impact on crop development,” the consultancy said.

Warm weather and irregular rains are a concern to producers in Parana state and southern Mato Grosso do Sul state. Despite a drop in temperatures in recent days, rainfall in both states is still lacking.

Brazil Winter Corn Planting 97.3% Done as of March 22: Safras

Compares with 94.7% last year and a five-year average of 91.8%, according to an emailed statement from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Works are 99.1% completed in Parana, 99.9% in Mato Grosso do Sul and 90.3% in Sao Paulo

EU Soft-Wheat Yields Seen Rising 2% Y/y in First Outlook: MARS

EU soft-wheat yields are seen at 5.91 tons a hectare this year, up from 5.82 tons a hectare in 2023, the EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in its first estimates for the coming season.

• Winter crops in large parts of Europe are in “mediocre” condition, despite fair weather in spring, MARS said in a report on Monday
• Soft-wheat yields are expected to be above the five-year average
• Winter crops in parts of western, northern and eastern Europe were hit by overly wet conditions since the autumn, it said
• “In the north, the most severely affected fields are expected to be resown with spring or summer crops. In the south, the impacts are mainly reflected in reduced yield potential”

WHEAT/CEPEA: Trades remain slow in March; prices move down

The pace of trades keeps slow in the Brazilian wheat market, and prices show new decreases. Monthly averages in the partial of March (up to Mar 22) are below that registered in February/24 in Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul and São Paulo state.

Purchasers are searching for high-quality wheat; however, the supply of this product is low. One way is to buy wheat from Argentina, where, in addition to the good quality, the price of the cereal is more competitive than that in the Brazilian spot market.

According to data from Cepea, between March 15 and 22, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 1.03% in Santa Catarina, 0.53% in Paraná and 0.14% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved down 0.23% in São Paulo and 0.1% in Rio Grande do Sul, with stability in Santa Catarina and an increase of 0.19% in Paraná.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between March 11 and 15, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 229.55/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 4.9814, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,143.46/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,240.38/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 214.47/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,068.34/ton – against BRL 1,184.60/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

According to data from Secex, Brazil had imported 288.94 thousand tons of wheat up to the third week of March, against 429.24 thousand tons in the entire month of March/23. Exports, in turn, had amounted 561.7 thousand tons in the same period, against 607.94 thousand tons in March last year.

Kazakhstan Sees Grain Harvest of Up to 14m Tons This Year: IFX

Kazakhstan expects grain harvest at 13m to 14m tons this year, Interfax reports citing Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov.

• Kazakhstan plans to plant wheat on 13.3m hectares this year, 3% less than in 2023, Saparov tells cabinet
• NOTE: Last year, Kazakhstan Harvests 16.4m Tons of Grain, Minister Says

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US March 1 Hog Herd Seen at 74.18M Head

March 1 hog inventory seen rising to 74.18m head vs 74.14m head in the same period last year, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts.

• Breeding inventory seen down 2.9% y/y, and market hogs seen rising 0.4% y/y
• The Dec-Feb pig crop seen rising by 1.4% y/y to 32.98m head
• Dec-Feb farrowing seen falling by 1.9% y/y
• USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly estimates at 3pm ET on March 28

US Feb. Pork Supplies in Cold Storage Dropped to 456M Pounds

According to the USDA’s March 25 cold storage report released on the agency’s website.

• Total pork fell 12.5% from Feb. of last year
• Pork belly supplies dropped to 63.8m pounds from 71m last year
• Beef supplies fell to 442.8m pounds from 500.8m last year

US Spring Fertilizer Premium Takes a Dip Lower

The Green Markets North American fertilizer index declined 5% last week — the biggest drop this year — as a globally bearish tone weighed on US pricing. Phosphate prices east of Suez are pressured by rising expectations that Chinese material will be available in April. India closes a urea tender this week, and expectations vary widely. The world’s largest importer has healthy stockpiles near 8 million metric tons (mt) and could purchase 1 million mt at $330-$350/mt delivered. The US urea premium to Brazil fell $5/mt last week; the US normally trades at a premium to Brazil for three months in 1H. The US spring season started early as warmer weather pulled forward demand.

 

 

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