Global Ag News for Mar 19.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s agri-input firms face bankruptcy surge

Brazil’s agricultural input sector saw a sharp rise in bankruptcy protection filings in 2024, with 45 companies affected, according to consultancy RGF&Associados and Valor Data.

The number marks an 80% increase from late 2023. Agrogalaxy and its subsidiaries are among those seeking protection, accounting for nearly half of the BRL9bn ($1.58bn) in total debt reported by 40 of these firms.

Rafael Pinto, a partner at RGF, attributed the rise in bankruptcies to increased defaults by small and medium-sized farmers. “The number of bankruptcy protection cases in the sector is expected to continue rising in the coming quarters,” he said.

Analysts point to lower grain prices, adverse weather, and rising costs as key drivers of the crisis, alongside aggressive expansion during high-profit years.

Agrogalaxy filed for bankruptcy protection in September 2024. CEO Eron Martins noted that farmer profitability declined sharply after 2022, with soybean prices dropping from BRL200 per 60kg bag to levels that pushed margins below 10%.

He cited the Russia-Ukraine war, high borrowing costs and supply chain disruptions as major factors. “When farmer profitability drops, borrowing costs are high, and there are years of adverse weather, it creates a challenge for producers to pay their bills,” Martins said.

The sector-wide downturn has also impacted B&F Agro, which is restructuring BRL360.8mn in debt. Attorney Jean Cioffi said the company is shifting focus to grain production.

Analysts warn that despite a strong harvest outlook, recovery could take years. “Structural challenges may prevent a full recovery in a sector still burdened by past harvest debts,” said a B&F representative.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 0.01.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 14 in HRW, up 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 3 1/4; Soymeal down $5.90; Soyoil up 0.96.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 8 in SRW, up 27 in HRW, up 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil down 1.57.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 2.2% in SRW, up 7.3% in HRW, up 2.6% in HRS; Corn is down 0.2%; Soybeans up 1.5%; Soymeal down 2.5%; Soyoil up 7.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 34 yuan; Soymeal up 2; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 60; Corn down 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 22.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 22 ringgit (+0.50%) at 4388.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 18 were: SRW Wheat up 4,809 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,914, Corn down 8,117, Soybeans up 7,115, Soymeal down 2,951, Soyoil up 5,205.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 18 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold spells over the next 10 days anticipated in North/Northeast U.S. should not reach winter wheat areas across the Central Plains
• SOUTH AMERICA: Heavy rains expected to arrive in the Pampas at the end of this week will hinder soybean/corn early harvest
• EUROPE: Increasingly active precipitation pattern over Europe in late March will elevate the risks of flooding in the south
• SOUTH ASIA: Dry conditions will continue across the major wheat areas of India, though without excessive temperatures in the short-term outlook

 

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAINS THROUGH LATE MARCH WILL HAVE MIXED IMPACTS ON CROPS

What to Watch:

• A powerful cold front will sweep across Argentina at the end of the week, but the country will remain dry through the balance of the month to the benefit of corn/soybeans
• Warmth will persist over Brazil into the foreseeable future, while high rainfall will be focused along and north of the southern regions where crop progress will be slowed
• Cool/wet weather through the next couple weeks in Paraguay will hamper the corn/soybean harvest

 

Northern Plains: Southern areas will continue to see snow Tuesday with a system that passes by to the south. A couple of smaller systems will move through later this week and weekend, but with more limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through massive precipitation events that are needed.

Central/Southern Plains: A strong storm will move through Tuesday and Wednesday. This one is more likely to bring some precipitation to the dry west, but in the form of snow, which could be heavy. Strong winds with the system could lead to blizzard conditions for a time as well as more wind damage and a possible dust storm again. A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast for late week and weekend. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

Midwest: Another system will move through on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a band of heavy snow on its northern side. Strong winds could again cause blizzard conditions. The precipitation is favorable for drought areas, but some areas of heavy rain are soaking soils ahead of fieldwork and planting for those in the east. Additional small systems will move through this weekend into early next week with some additional showers.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Due to heavy rain from the weekend, water levels on the Mississippi are forecast to rise again, though flooding is not expected outside of the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers to the east. Soils are likely too wet to work for many areas this week. A system will move through with some showers possible on Wednesday, with another couple of small systems this weekend and early next week, keeping soil moisture high.

 

The player sheet for 3/18 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• RICE PURCHASE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer is believed to have purchased about 50,000 metric tons of rice expected to be sourced from India in an international tender which closed on March 11
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Iran’s Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased at least 250,000 metric tons of wheat late last week expected to be sourced from Russia
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which closed on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 122,456 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on March 19.
• WHEAT EXPORT PLAN: The Iraqi cabinet agreed to export 2 million tons of local wheat, it said in a statement, marking the country’s first wheat exports in decades. The move is part of government efforts to maximize non-oil revenue.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 14 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.059m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 27.271m bbl vs 27.376m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 14.4%

February placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.62m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates range from -20.9% to -9.5% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of March 1 seen falling by 1.8% y/y to 11.63m head
• Marketings seen falling 8% y/y

 

S&P Global raises US 2025 corn plantings forecast to 94.3 million acres

S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Tuesday that U.S. farmers would plant 94.3 million acres of corn in 2025, up 800,000 acres from its previous forecast released on January 21 and up 3.7 million acres from 2024, an S&P Global spokesperson said.

The firm left its forecast of U.S. 2025 soybean plantings unchanged from January at 83.3 million acres, down 3.8 million acres from a year ago.

In 2024, U.S. farmers planted 90.6 million acres of corn and 87.1 million acres of soybeans, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

S&P lowered its U.S. 2025 all-cotton plantings forecast to 10.2 million acres, down 250,000 acres from January and down nearly 1 million acres from last year.

The firm projected total U.S. wheat plantings for harvest in 2025 at 46.6 million acres, down 500,000 acres from its January forecast but up from the 46.1 million acres that the USDA said farmers planted in 2024.

S&P’s all-wheat figure includes 34.1 million acres of winter wheat, 1.9 million acres of durum wheat and 10.6 million acres of spring wheat other than durum.

The USDA is scheduled to release its annual U.S. planting intentions report on March 31.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 15.56 Million Tns In March – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 15.56 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 15.45 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.60 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 2.38 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST

 

Russian Wheat Bids Fall, SovEcon Says

Prices for Russian wheat exports out of the country’s ports have fallen back, SovEcon says in a note — making it the first week in roughly a month that Russian wheat prices fell. The firm quotes bids for Russian wheat at 17,300 to 17,800 rubles per metric ton — down from 17,500 to 18,000 rubles per ton assessed last week. Exporters are attempting to move more wheat as the spring planting season approaches, says the firm. “Exporters have repeatedly attempted to lower purchase prices to improve the profitability of their operations,” SovEcon says. “As spring approaches, grain supply has slightly increased as agricultural producers finalize plans for the new season.” CBOT wheat is up 0.5%, while corn falls 0.5% and soybeans inch up 0.1%.

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 35% Y/y During Season to March 16

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 14.9m tons as of March 16, compared with 22.9m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 2.17m tons, Morocco with 1.7m tons and Algeria with 1.16m tons
• Barley exports were at 3.6m tons, down 19% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 14.8m tons, up 9% y/y
• NOTE: Export data for Italy aren’t complete for the last 14 weeks. Export data for France aren’t complete since the beginning of 2024 calendar year. Export data for Bulgaria and Ireland aren’t complete since the beginning of the 2023-24 marketing year

 

China’s Corn Imports Slow to a Crawl Putting Forecasts in Doubt

Chinese corn imports are running at their slowest pace in seven seasons, suggesting that even scaled back forecasts for annual purchases may prove hard to reach.

China imported just 180,000 tons of corn in January and February, bringing the total for the 2024-25 marketing year that began in October to 1.07 million tons, according to customs data on Tuesday. The last time imports were so weak was 2017-18, when 1.03 million tons were recorded in the first five months of the campaign.

The farm ministry is forecasting just 9 million tons of purchases for the full year, less than half the previous season and sharply reduced from an earlier estimate of 13 million tons. By comparison, China ended up buying only 3.5 million tons in 2017-18.

Poor consumption of agricultural goods is another casualty of a sluggish economy. The government last year asked traders to limit purchases of overseas grain including corn, to bolster domestic prices and protect farm profits. Other headwinds to imports include the 15% tariff imposed on US corn this month, one element of Beijing’s retaliation against the blanket levies imposed by Washington on Chinese exports.

Weaker demand from the struggling livestock industry pushed corn futures in China to their lowest level in more than three years in January, forcing the state stockpiler to step in to support the market

 

Indonesia preparing $487 million capital injection for state firm managing seized palm oil plantations

Indonesia is preparing about 8 trillion rupiah ($487.21 million) of capital injection for the new state firm Agrinas Palma Nusantara, senior finance ministry official Rionald Silaban said on Tuesday.

Agrinas, a state firm previously involved in construction that was converted into a palm oil company this year, will manage palm oil plantations confiscated as part of an ongoing corruption prob

 

NO THREAT OF EXTENDED COLD SPELLS ACROSS THE U.S. PLAINS IN LATE MARCH

What to Watch:

• Warmth will prevail and expand in the next week over the Plains
• Cold spell in the Eastern U.S. is very likely to be mild, but the next weather updates require attention in terms of cold risks for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat
• Another round of rains in the Midwest will help to improve soil moisture content

 

Recent and expected weather maintains Russian wheat production outlook

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 79.6 [78.0-83.6] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent weather conditions keep 2025/26 Russian wheat production at 79.6 [78.0-83.6] million tons (MMT), 54.6 MMT of winter wheat and 25.0 MMT of spring wheat. Our estimate does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

The past two weeks featured warm and relatively dry conditions in the main winter wheat producing Districts, resulting in thaw and snow melt over the region. Soil moisture levels have improved in Central, Volga, and North Caucasian districts, but Southern is still at the 6-year low.

Moving forward, the latest weather forecasts indicate normal to warmer temperatures over the next two weeks with precipitation surpluses in Central and Volga District. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather conditions in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly.

 

Malaysia’s Crude Palm Oil Export Tax Will Be at 10% in April

The gazetted price for crude palm oil has been set at 4,547.79 ringgit a ton, which incurs the maximum export tax of 10%, according to a circular from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• NOTE: Export duty structure starts at 3% when FOB prices for CPO are in the 2,250-2,400 ringgit/ton range
• Maximum tax rate is 10% when prices are above 4,050 ringgit/ton

 

Darling Expects 2026 EPA Rule on Biofuel Blend in April or May

Darling Ingredients Inc. CEO Randall Stuewe said he expects the Environmental Protection Agency to propose US biofuel blending targets for 2026 in April or May.

• “I believe they get it,” he said during a talk at a Piper Sandler energy conference, referring to the renewable diesel industry’s need for a more robust quota for blending bio-based diesel into the country’s fossil fuel supply
  • NOTE: The industry is asking EPA for a 2 billion gallon increase in biomass-based diesel volumes from existing blending targets after prior renewable volume obligations, or RVOs, were seen as too low
• The Trump administration probably won’t grant such a “giant” increase but any boost will be “really positive” for Darling’s Diamond Green Diesel partnership with Valero Energy, Stuewe said
  • He said the fuel venture, a top producer of renewable diesel, is in “good shape” while its rivals are “running red now”
• The EPA didn’t immediately respond to requests for a comment

 

Farmers Can Start Applying for $10B in Farm Aid Wednesday: USDA

US farmers can start applying to access $10 billion in economic aid starting March 19, Brooke Appleton, the deputy under secretary for farm production and conservation, said in a briefing with reporters Tuesday.

• Aid is part of nearly $31 billion that Congress approved last December to assist farmers
  • Funds are coming via the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program
• Eligible commodities and per-acre payment rates are on the USDA’s website
• Sign-ups run through Aug. 15
  • USDA’s Farm Service Agency may issue a second payment if funds remain past that date: Appleton
• USDA also sending pre-filled applications to producers who had reported acres of eligible commodities
• Appleton said more details on the roll-out of the remaining $20 billion in assistance for natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 will be “coming soon”

 

Argentina to Resume Poultry Meat Exports to China

Argentina and Chinese customs authority GACC have reached a deal for the reopening of poultry meat exports from the Latin American country to China after a two-year suspension due to a bird-flu outbreak, Argentina’s Economy Ministry said on Monday in a statement.

• “The rehabilitation for Argentine poultry meat to get into China is very important news for the sector,” government said
• As of Mar. 2023, China was the the destination for 45% of the country’s poultry meat exports: Ministry

 

 

 

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