Global Ag News for Mar 18.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Global soybean market in turmoil amid continued trade disputes between U.S. and China

2024/25 SOYBEAN MARKET OUTLOOK – MARCH 2025

Soybean prices have been under pressure mostly due to a series of bearish news (e.g. a sizable reduction in U.S. soy acreage discussed during the USDA’s Agriculture Outlook Forum held during 27-28 February, and reciprocal tariff announcements from the U.S. and China on 03-04 March). A record harvest and improving late season activities in Brazil also continued to limit the upside despite excessive moisture woes across the Argentine Pampas.

The near-term direction of the market will likely be underpinned by expectations (as well as post-release reactions) surrounding the USDA ‘s acreage outlooks in its Prospective Plantings report (scheduled to be released on 31 March). Equally important will be the early season sowing conditions and summer weather outlooks for the U.S. crops, both of which remain gloomy at the moment.

The long-term direction of the market will likely be dictated by the demand-side dynamics as well, mostly focused on the abrupt (or gradual) developments surrounding the U.S.-China trade tension. Any changes in the Trump administration’s tariff policy may warrant close attention. As South America crop season mostly comes to an end, the market attention will soon shift toward North America.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/2 in SRW, up 1 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 0.29.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 15 in SRW, up 24 1/2 in HRW, up 17 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $2.40; Soyoil up 0.86.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 33 1/2 in HRW, up 17 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 13 1/4; Soybeans down 10 1/2; Soymeal up $2.60; Soyoil down 1.73.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3.7% in SRW, up 9.2% in HRW, up 3.9% in HRS; Corn is up 0.1%; Soybeans up 1.9%; Soymeal down 1.4%; Soyoil up 6.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 41 yuan; Soymeal down 6; Soyoil down 24; Palm oil down 84; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 108.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 108 ringgit (-2.41%) at 4366.

There were changes in registrations (-2 SRW Wheat, 202 Soymeal). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 17 were: SRW Wheat down 6,157 contracts, HRW Wheat up 115, Corn down 18,607, Soybeans up 2,176, Soymeal up 2,513, Soyoil up 4,344.

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST/NORTH BRAZIL WHILE THE PAMPAS WILL REMAIN DRY

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in North/Southeast and dry in South/Central Brazil

FORECAST

Discussion:  The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 3-5 event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely to develop into a positive phase and will support dry weather across Southern Brazil. On  EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the past month.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday, mostly north. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, falling Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Midwest West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Midwest East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday into Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 3/17 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased about 120,000 metric tons of wheat late last week, expected to be sourced from Russia.
• SUNFLOWER OIL TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase and import about 18,000 metric tons of crude sunflower oil.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 122,456 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Wednesday.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.659m Tons of Corn for Export, 647k of Soybeans

In week ending March 13, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 493k tons vs 242k the previous wk, 394k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 647k tons vs 854k the previous wk, 700k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,659k tons vs 1,844k the previous wk, 1,326k a yr ago

 

NOPA February US soybean crush declines to 177.870 million bushels

U.S. soy processors crushed the smallest volume of soybeans in five months during February, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 177.870 million bushels of the oilseed last month, down 11.2% from the January crush of 200.383 million bushels and down 4.5% from the February 2024 crush of 186.194 million bushels.

The February 2025 crush fell below even the lowest in a range of estimates in a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. The average estimate among analysts surveyed was 185.229 million bushels, with estimates ranging from 178.254 million to 191.900 million bushels. The median was 186.500 million bushels.

Soybean crushing rates generally have ramped up in recent years as several new processing plants have come online while other crushers have expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers.

Yet several analysts expected a year-over-year decline in the February crush given that last month had one less day than February 2024, which was a leap year. Also, weak soymeal prices and a cold spell likely caused some soy facilities to slow production, analysts said.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of February 28 rose to an eight-month high of 1.503 billion pounds, up 18.0% from 1.274 billion pounds at the end of January but down 11.1% from the 1.690 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to rise to 1.386 billion pounds, according to estimates from six analysts.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.223 billion to 1.750 billion lbs, with a median of 1.348 billion lbs.

 

Weekly USDA wheat ratings decline in Kansas, steady in Oklahoma

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 48% of the winter wheat in top producer Kansas in “good to excellent” condition, down from 52% the previous week, while topsoil moisture declined.

The USDA rated 28% of the winter wheat in Texas and 46% of the crop in Oklahoma as “good to excellent”, both unchanged from the prior week. For Colorado, the USDA rated 60% of the wheat crop as “good to excellent”, down from 67% in the state’s previous report, which was released on March 3.

The Plains states were hit by strong winds and dust storms on Friday, part of a large storm system that caused at least 36 deaths through Sunday across the Plains, Midwest and Southeast.

The blowing dust and the slide in Kansas crop ratings underscore the effects of dry conditions. Approximately 27% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was located in an area experiencing drought as of March 11, the USDA said last week, up from 24% the previous week and from 14% a year earlier.

In Kansas, topsoil moisture was rated “short” or “very short” in 47% of the state, up from 40% a week earlier.

With the harvest still about three months away, the U.S. winter wheat crop is breaking dormancy and resuming growth, a time when the need for moisture typically increases. Forecasts called for mostly dry weather this week in the southern Plains.

U.S. farmers planted 34.1 million acres (13.8 million hectares) of winter wheat for harvest in 2025, up 2% from a year earlier.

During the winter and early spring, the USDA releases crop progress reports for select states. The government is scheduled to resume regular weekly national crop progress reports on April 7.

 

Brazil Soybean Harvest 70% Completed as of March 13: Agrural

Pace compares with 61% a week earlier and 63% same time last year, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Harvest pace as of March 13 is the fastest ever recorded by AgRural for this time of year
• Seeding of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop is 97% completed
• Harvest of summer corn in Brazil’s Center-South region is 72% completed, compared to 54% a week before

 

Firm demand and strong sales persist upon worries on supply shortage and tariff wars

2024/25 CORN MARKET OUTLOOK – MARCH 2025

Corn prices are becoming more volatile due to the on-and-off tariffs by the Trump’s administration. Especially the trade disputes between the U.S., and Mexico, EU and China, who are the major buyers of U.S. corn, have impacts on U.S. corn trading.

Upon worries that the Trump’s tariffs and retaliatory measures could disrupt corn trading, as well as the corn supply shortage in EU/Black Sea/Brazil, U.S. corn sales reached a nearly record high level for the second week of March. Mexico, Japan, EU-27 and South Korea are the top buyers.

Summer weather forecasts call for unfavorably hot and dry conditions across most of U.S. corn belt and the Northeast of China, posing great risks to 2025/26 corn yield and production.

On the other hand, U.S. farmers are expected to plant more corn rather than soybeans amid better corn profitability prospects and the US-China trade wars having less impact on corn than on soybeans.

Brazil 2nd crop corn is at risk due to persistent warm and dry conditions and resulting soil moisture deficits across the key producing regions, except for Mato Grosso, but forward weather outlook indicates normal precipitation during the growing period of April-June.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: With firm sellers and offseason period, values are still on the rise

The limited availability of wheat in the domestic market in this offseason period has been keeping quotations high, while the liquidity is low. Sellers who still have the product are away from closing deals, and purchasers, in turn, are looking for new batches. As a result, many buyers are focused on imports, which have more attractive values.

According to data from Cepea, between March 7 and 14, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 2% in Rio Grande do Sul, 1.4% in Paraná and 0.79% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved up 1.47% in Paraná, 0.91% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.39% in Santa Catarina, remaining practically stable in São Paulo (+0.09%). Dollar quotations dropped 0.88% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.741 on March 14.

Conab estimates an increase of 15.6% in the wheat output in 2025 against 2024, at 9.117 million tons. Productivity is expected to grow 18%, at 3.04 tons per hectare, while the area may decrease 2.1%, at 3 million hectares.

The domestic consumption is projected at 11.88 million tons, and exports, at 2 million tons. Thus, final stocks may total 1.739 million tons, 10% less than that estimated in February/25, but almost the double of the volume forecast in the 2024 season.

In global terms, the USDA indicates an increase of 0.4% in the 2024/25 wheat production compared to the previous report, at 797.227 million tons. The consumption is likely to reach 806.645 million tons, 0.4% more than in the previous report and upping 1.1% in relation to the past crop.

 

Palm Oil May Trade at 4,400-4,600 Ringgit Per Ton in March: MPOC

Palm oil prices are expected to trade between 4,400-4,600 ringgit a ton this month on increased rivalry with soybean oil, which has ample supply and more competitive prices, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• India may increase palm oil imports in the coming weeks to replenish stockpiles, MPOC said in a statement
• Palm oil production may improve gradually from March as the monsoon season concludes, and a recovery in year-on-year production growth is expected from August onwards
• Global biodiesel output seen declining by 500,000 tons this year as production and consumption in major biofuel producers will likely stagnate or contract, except for Indonesia
  • US biodiesel production this year may not reach the 16m tons it reached in 2024 due to evolving political framework
• Price rally in vegetable oils could be limited by lower consumption from energy sector; new demand will need to come from food and non-energy sectors

 

Indonesia Feb. Palm Oil Exports Rise 38.9% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose 38.9% m/m in February, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports rose to 2.119m tons from 1.525m tons in January
• Crude palm oil shipments rose to 214,445 tons from 25,200 tons in January
• RBD palm olein shipments rose to 937,713 tons from 609,692 tons in January
• RBD palm oil shipments rose to 404,483 tons from 272,916 tons in January
• Palm oil sales to European Union rose to 294,584 tons from 217,784 tons in January
• Palm oil sales to India rose to 777,465 tons from 304,957 tons in January
• Palm oil sales to China rose to 284,550 tons from 198,543 tons in January

 

India Feb. Oilmeals Exports Fall to 330,319 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports fell to 330,319 tons in February from 452,352 tons in January, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports rose to 140,038 tons from 131,641 tons in January
• Soymeal exports fell to 168,725 tons from 286,287 tons in January
• Rice-bran extract exports rose to 1,379 tons from 63 tons in January
• Castorseed meal exports fell to 16,665 tons from 31,725 tons in January

 

Indonesia to raise palm oil export levy to 4.5% to 10%, official says

Indonesia will raise its palm oil export levy to between 4.5% and 10% of the crude palm oil reference price, up from 3% to 7.5%, to finance a mandated increase in the amount of the oil used in biodiesel, a plantation fund official said on Tuesday.

Indonesia raisedthe mandatory amount of palm oil in its biodiesel mix to 40% this year from 35%. It is studying increasing it to 50% in 2026, as well as a 3% blend for jet fuel next year, as it seeks to curb fuel imports.

Kabul Wijayanto, director at the Plantation Fund Agency, which is in charge of collecting and distributing the export levy, said authorities would impose the new rates three days after the regulation is issued.

Wijayanto said the regulation was being processed by the law ministry. The agency was expected to distribute 35.47 trillion rupiah ($2.15 billion) for the biodiesel subsidy this year.

The increase in the crude palm oil levy to 10% from 7.5% was flagged by the government late last year, but has so far not been enacted. More refined palm oil products are charged lower levy rates.

 

Corn Ethanol Group Presses Trump on ‘Climate Smart Agriculture’

Trade group Growth Energy urges Trump administration to include “climate smart agriculture” practices in the Biden-era 45Z clean-fuel production tax credit.

• In a letter to the USDA, the biofuels group gives suggestions on improving interim guidelines for regenerative farming techniques
• Recommendations include an expansion of processes that curb greenhouse gases at biofuel plants, and a revision of the definition of low-greenhouse gas ethanol to ensure US producers are able to export under 45Z
• NOTE: Request comes as President Donald Trump rolls back climate change policies

 

Brazil Moves Forward to Boost Ethanol Blend in Gasoline

The world’s second-largest producer of ethanol Brazil is set to increase the blend of biofuel in gasoline, in a move to aid local industry as supply booms.

Authorities are recommending an increase in the blend of ethanol in regular gasoline to 30% from the current level of 27.5%. That’s after technical tests sponsored by the country’s Ministry of Mines and Energy indicated there would be no harm to car engines.

The increase in the ethanol blend was first planned in a law that passed Congress last year. A final green light from the National Energy Policy Council is still pending, but that’s anticipated to happen sometime this year as the agency is expected to follow recommendations from the technical study.

Read More: Lula’s Green Fuel Law Favors Farmers Over Oil Giant Petrobras

According to consultancy Datagro, the new 30% blend will add 1.3 billion liters of ethanol demand annually.

The move is set to reduce demand for gasoline, potentially easing the need for fuel imports. Gasoline prices to Brazilian consumers should fall as a result and the country could even have excess gasoline to export, minister Alexandre Silveira told journalists on Monday.

The higher blend also comes as biofuel supplies are getting a boost from the startup of new plants that process corn, with industry group Unem listing as many as 12 new units currently in project phase or under construction. While production from corn is booming, Brazil makes most of its ethanol from sugar cane.

Datagro’s President Plinio Nastari expects some sugar-cane plants could chose to switch production to ethanol as a result of the increased biofuel demand. That’s especially true for mills outside of the top sugar-cane producing state of Sao Paulo, as a longer distance to Brazil’s main ports make it more expensive for those companies to export sugar.

 

China Renews US Meat-Plant Registrations, Boosting Export Hopes

China’s government has renewed export registrations for some US meat plants whose eligibility was set to lapse, raising hopes that shipments won’t be disrupted.

The registrations for US pork and poultry plants were renewed on the website for the General Administration of Customs of China, according to American trade groups.

“This took place late last night, so pork destined for China – or planned shipments to China – should clear customs regardless of the production date,” Joe Schuele, spokesman for the US Meat Export Federation, said on Monday.

Still, hundreds of US beef plants saw their eligibility expire on Sunday and haven’t yet been renewed. “We are hoping for similar news soon on the beef side,” Schuele said.

The issue prompted concerns that $3 billion in US meat and poultry shipments to China were at risk with US President Donald Trump pursuing another trade war. The president has doubled tariffs on goods from China to 20%, setting the stage for fresh geopolitical tensions in his second term. Beijing has responded with duties on a range of agricultural goods, from beef and poultry to grains.

The US Department of Agriculture didn’t immediately reply to a request for comment. In a statement late Friday, the USDA said it “continues to work closely with GACC to ensure the timely renewal of these registrations and facilitate uninterrupted trade.”

 

CME Plans to Launch European Rapeseed Oil Futures Next Month

Futures for European FOB Dutch mill rapeseed oil will be listed on the Chicago Board of Trade beginning in late April, pending regulatory reviews, according to a statement from CME Group.

Futures will be financially settled, and priced in euros per metric ton.

 

 

 

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