Global Ag News for Mar 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Says Both Reciprocal and Sectoral Tariffs Coming April 2

President Donald Trump said he would be imposing both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2.

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that “in certain cases, both” types of levies would be placed on foreign goods imported to the US.

“They charge us and we charge them and then in addition to that on autos on steel on aluminum we are going to have additional tariffs,” Trump said on Sunday.

The remarks signal that Trump plans to press ahead with a more aggressive tariff regime, despite initial moves roiling financial markets and straining alliances.

Trump has previously said that his administration is preparing what he’s dubbed reciprocal tariffs — which would hit imports from each country with a tariff rate determined based on a calculation incorporating its own tariff and non-tariff barriers.

But the president has also said he wants to prepare key US industries, including automobiles, steel, aluminum, microprocessors, and pharmaceuticals. It hasn’t been clear whether those sectoral tariffs would be incorporated into or added on top of the reciprocal tariff regime.

“April 2 is a liberating day for our country,” Trump said. “We’re getting back some of the wealth that very, very foolish presidents gave away because they had no clue what they were doing.”

Trump has already imposed a 20% tariff rate in China, as well as a 25% levy on steel and aluminum. He also announced a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, but subsequently offered a one-month extension for goods compliant with the North American trade deal, known as USMCA, negotiated during his first term. Trump has also said Canadian energy and potash, a key fertilizer, would only be hit with a 10% tax.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 12 1/4 in SRW, up 17 in HRW, up 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 4 3/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil up 0.12.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 6 3/4 in SRW, up 24 1/2 in HRW, up 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $3.00; Soyoil down 0.55.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 13 1/2 in SRW, up 30 in HRW, up 15 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/4; Soybeans down 9; Soymeal up $5.10; Soyoil down 2.41.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 3.2% in SRW, up 7.8% in HRW, up 2.9% in HRS; Corn is up 1.0%; Soybeans up 1.9%; Soymeal down 0.7%; Soyoil up 4.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 2 yuan; Soymeal up 19; Soyoil up 68; Palm oil up 4; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 107.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 107 ringgit (-2.34%) at 4469.

There were changes in registrations (-1 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 461 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,021 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 14 were: SRW Wheat up 7,503 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,607, Corn down 7,240, Soybeans up 5,919, Soymeal down 3,514, Soyoil up 2,117.

 

THE ARRIVAL OF RAINS IN CENTRAL-WEST BRAZIL WILL BE WELL-TIMED FOR 2ND CROP CORN DEVELOPMENT

What to Watch:

• Warm and dry weather will ramp up next week along the Argentina Pampas, with positive impacts on crops this time around
• Rains will soon overspread Central-West Brazil ahead of critical 2nd crop corn development stages, and temperatures will moderate in a favorable outlook
• Upcoming dry weather will have negative impacts on late soybean development in Paraguay, as the region largely missed out on recent rains

 

Northern Plains: A system dropped some heavy snow in the eastern Dakotas with blizzard conditions over the weekend and another skirted across the north with some snow. Southern areas will continue to see snow Tuesday with a system that passes by to the south. A couple of smaller systems will move through later this week and weekend but with more limited showers. Drought continues to be a big concern for the region heading into spring and the active weather pattern has yet to bring through massive precipitation events that are needed.

Central/Southern Plains: A massive system went through on Friday, bringing extremely strong winds that caused a dust storm and enraged wildfires. Another strong storm will move through Tuesday and Wednesday. This one is more likely to bring some precipitation to the west, but in the form of snow, which could be heavy. Strong winds with the system could lead to blizzard conditions for a time as well. A couple of smaller systems with very limited precipitation are forecast for late week and weekend. With the limited precipitation and occasional bursts of strong winds, conditions for greening winter wheat are not currently favorable.

Midwest: A massive storm system went through over the weekend, bringing through widespread rain and thunderstorms, but also widespread severe weather and a blizzard in the far northwest. Another system will move through on Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and a band of heavy snow on its northern side again. Strong winds could again cause blizzard conditions, but for a larger area. The precipitation is favorable for drought areas, but some areas of heavy rain are soaking soils ahead of fieldwork and planting for those in the east. Additional small systems will move through this weekend into early next week with some additional showers, but likely much lighter.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A couple of rounds of severe weather and heavy rainfall moved through over the weekend, leading to damage and flooding. Water levels on the Mississippi are forecast to rise again, though flooding is not expected outside of the Tennessee and Cumberland Rivers to the east. Soils are likely to wet to work for many areas this week. A system will move through with some showers possible on Wednesday, with another couple of small systems this weekend and early next week, keeping soil moisture very high.

Europe: Systems moved through over the last week, bringing needed rainfall across the south and portions of the east. Though Spain continues to see beneficial rainfall, most areas will dry out this week. However, another system moves into the west on Friday and is forecast to send some more energy eastward through the continent over the weekend into next week. Above-normal temperatures should coax more wheat across the north out of dormancy while causing more rapid growth across the south.

Black Sea: An active pattern in Europe brought through some streaks of precipitation over the weekend, but they were largely light. Southwestern Russia gets some precipitation early this week, but likely not enough for how dry soils continue to be. Above-normal temperatures continue to awaken wheat in largely poor condition with limited soil moisture.

 

The player sheet for 3/14 had funds: net sellers of 9,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 218,604 metric tons of U.S. corn to undisclosed destinations for delivery in the 2024-25 corn marketing year that began September 1, 2024.
• SOYOIL SALES: The USDA also confirmed private sales of 20,000 metric tons of U.S. soyoil to undisclosed destinations for delivery in the soyoil 2024-25 marketing year that began October 1, 2024.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 137,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Friday.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased about 120,000 metric tons of wheat late last week

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US February Soybean Crush Seen at 187.9M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of up to seven analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on March 13-14.

• Soybean crush seen 0.9% higher vs February of last year, and a decline of 6.2% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.461b lbs vs 1.69b a year earlier

 

NOPA February US soybean crush estimated to have slowed to 185.229 million bushels

The U.S. soybean crush likely fell in February for a second straight month, after an all-time high in December, as weak soymeal prices and a cold spell caused some soy facilities to dial back production, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Monday.

NOPA members, who handle more than 95% of all soybeans processed in the U.S., were estimated to have crushed 185.229 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

If realized, the pace would be down 7.6% from the 200.383 million bushels crushed in January and down 0.5% from the February 2024 crush of 186.194 million bushels, which was also the highest February crush on record.

December’s all-time high was 206.604 million bushels.

Soybean crushing rates have surged in recent years as several new processing plants have come online while others have expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers. NOPA’s monthly crush totals have also risen as new members have joined the group.

Analysts also attributed the expected year-over-year decline in February to the month having one less day than February 2024, which was a leap year, and abundant supplies of soymeal have curbed the crush pace this winter.

Crush estimates for February ranged from 178.254 million to 191.900 million bushels, with a median of 186.500 million bushels.

The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Monday.

Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of February 28 were projected to rise to 1.386 billion pounds, based on estimates from six analysts.

The figure, if realized, would be up 8.8% from stocks totaling 1.274 billion lbs at the end of January but down 18.0% from the 1.690 billion lbs held by NOPA members a year ago.

Oil stocks estimates ranged from 1.223 billion to 1.750 billion lbs, with a median of 1.348 billion lbs.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: More than half of the crop is harvested; production may hit a record

The soy harvest continues to move at a good pace in important producing areas in Brazil. The productivity has been high in many regions, which reinforces the estimate of a record output. Since the supply has been increasing, purchasers are willing to trade and deals for immediate delivery are moving at a good pace.

However, players fear impacts of infrastructure problems on liquidity in the coming weeks. The flowing of soy and corn in this time of the year highlights all logistics problems faced by producers.

According to data from Conab released this month, the soy production is expected to increase in important regions in 2024/25, except in Rio Grande do Sul, where Conab points to 17.06 million tons, 13.2% less than in the season before, due to the irregular volume of rainfall in the state.

The national soy production is likely to amount 167.37 million tons, 0.8% more than the projection released in February and 13.3% above that verified in the 2023/24 season – from this amount, 56.3% had been harvested up to March 9, according to Conab.

The USDA, in turn, is more optimistic, keeping the projection at 169 million tons for the 2024/25 season in Brazil. The Department says that 105.5 million tons of soybean may be shipped in this season (from October/24 to September/25), a record. However, in the partial of this season (from Oct/24 to Feb/25), Brazilian exports are 30.4% lower than those verified in the same period last crop, according to Secex. As for the global production, the USDA estimates the record of 420.76 million tons in 2024/25.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.6% from March 6-13, to close at BRL 134.88 per 60-kg bag on March 13. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) also downed 0.6% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 128.07 per 60-kg bag on March 13. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 0.1% from March 6-13 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

CORN/CEPEA: Low stocks keep prices high; Index is close to BRL 90/bag

While corn inventories are low, the demand is high. This scenario has kept quotations high in most areas surveyed by Cepea. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) is close to BRL 90.00 per 60-kilo bag, a level that was observed for the last time in April 2022.

Initial stocks of the 2024/25 season are at only 2.04 million tons, less than the 2.1 million tons estimated in February/25 and lower than the 7.2 million tons registered in 2023/24. The current level accounts for only 2.4% of the annual consumption in the domestic market, projected by Conab at 86.97 million tons in 2024/25.

In the spot market, purchasers are willing to trade, but sellers are asking for high prices. Moreover, there are logistics issues.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) increased 2.3% between March 6 and 13, closing at BRL 89.88 per 60-kilo bag on March 13. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from March 6-13, corn values rose 1.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

The report released by Conab on March 13 indicated a slight increase of 0.6% for the Brazilian output compared to what had been released in February, now estimated at 122.76 million tons, upping 6.1% in relation to the season before.

The summer crop is expected to total 24.85 million tons, while the third is projected at 2.38 million tons. As for the second crop, the area may increase 2%, and productivity, 4% against the season before. As a result, the production is likely to reach 95.51 million tons, 6% more than the past crop.

Due to the production increase and the reduction of shipments, estimated at 34 million tons, below the 38.5 million tons verified in the crop before, final stocks are likely to total 5.53 million tons, more than the 4.89 million tons projected in February.

The USDA kept the production estimate in Brazil at 126 million tons, but it reduced exports to 41 million tons.

The global production is likely to total 1.21 billion tons, according to the USDA. The consumption was kept at 1.23 billion tons, but stocks by the end of the season dropped. Thus, the stock/consumption relation in the 2024/25 crop is at 23.4%, below that verified in 2023/24 (25.7%).

 

Indonesia’s Feb palm oil exports hit 4-month high on tax cut

Indonesia’s crude and refined palm oil exports surged 62.2% in February from a month ago to reach a four-month high, the statistics bureau said on Monday, as Jakarta’s move to lower export taxes attracted buyers away from Malaysia.

Higher palm oil exports from Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of the tropical oil, will help in bringing down stocks and support prices that are currently holding a premium over rival soyoil.

Indonesia exported 2.06 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in February, the highest since October, the bureau data showed. Exports were up 45.1% from February 2024.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. Indonesia’s palm oil association GAPKI usually releases its own data at a later date, which cover more products and so has different export figures.

The decrease in export taxes, which resulted in Indonesian palm oil prices falling below Malaysian levels, sped up exports in February, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

“Buyers shifted to Indonesia from Malaysia because of lower prices, which is why Malaysia’s exports fell in February.”

Malaysia’s palm oil exports in February fell 16.27% from a month ago to hit a 4-year low of 1 million tons.

Indonesia lowered its crude palm oil (CPO) reference price for February, reducing the export tax to $124 per ton from $178 in January.

Indonesia’s palm oil stocks are unlikely to rise sharply despite curbs on used cooking oil, as rising exports coincide with the country’s implementation of a 40% mandatory biodiesel blend, a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house said.

The sustained export momentum of palm oil, despite its premium over soybean oil, will help keep its prices elevated, he said.

Palm oil mainly competes with soyoil and sunflower oil supplies from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

 

US Pork Production Up 3.7% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 544m pounds for the week ending March 15 from 524m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 4% from a week ago to 2.515m head
• Beef production up 1.4% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 1.6%
• For the year, beef production is 2.3% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 3.9% below

 

Louis Dreyfus family sells Russian agricultural firm at ‘big discount’, Interfax reports

Steppe Agroholding acquired full control of RZ Agro which it had previously shared with members of the French family of global grain merchant Louis Dreyfus, Interfax reported on Sunday, citing a source familiar with the deal.

“This is logical that Steppe took over RZ Agro, it was expected. The deal was closed some time ago, now the management has changed in the company. The ‘divorce’ with the French partners was amicable,” the source said.

The deal size was unknown but it was done at “a big discount”, the source told Interfax.

Steppe, owned by the Russian conglomerate AFK Sistema AFKS.MM, declined to comment on the report, Interfax said.

RZ Agro controls, manages and cultivates agricultural land, focusing on grains and oilseeds production, and currently operates on an area of over 100,000 hectares of arable land in Southern Russia, according to its website.

 

Potash Prices Strengthen Amid Tariff Uncertainty; Urea Softens

Questions over the scope and timing of tariffs drove potash prices higher at New Orleans (NOLA) and inland during the week. NOLA potash barges firmed to $310-$315 a short ton (st) from $300-$310, while Corn Belt prices jumped to $345-$360 from last week’s $330 low. Phosphate was down slightly at NOLA but up in some inland markets as spring application nears, while ammonia, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and ammonium sulfate prices were generally stable. By contrast, urea prices softened in domestic and international markets as India further delays its next tender. NOLA urea barges slipped to $380-$386/st and terminal prices were down $10-$20/st in the Corn Belt and southern US. Urea price declines were also reported in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Mediterranean and Black Sea regions at mid-month.

 

 

 

 

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