Global Ag News for Mar 14.2025

TOP HEADLINES

EU Feed Sector Sees Hit From Likely Tariff on US Soy

Europe’s animal feed industry has warned of supply challenges if US soybeans are hit in the escalating trade war between Brussels and Washington.

European Union lawmakers are looking to target some €26 billion ($28.2 billion) worth of goods from the US after President Donald Trump imposed a 25% levy on steel and aluminum imports. The bloc will target politically sensitive goods in Republican-led states, including soybeans.

Such a move “may lead to the disruption of vital feed supply chains, as the EU will continue to rely on essential feed imports in particular for protein rich feed products like soybeans,” Pedro Cordero, president of European feed industry group Fefac, said in a statement this week.

Soybeans are typically crushed into cooking oil and turned into animal feed.

Europe is reliant on imports to bolster domestic supplies. It was the second largest export destination for US soybeans in 2024, buying some $2.4 billion worth, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

American farmers will also be watching out for additional challenges to exporting soybeans after top buyer China also retaliated against US tariffs with levies of its own on a slew of agri and food products. It also announced a complete suspension of soybean imports from three US entities.

While potential EU tariffs will be “unfavorable for exports to Europe,” said Thijs Geijer, a food and agriculture economist at ING, the increased trade tensions “will definitely put pressure on soybean plantings in the US given that it’s less economically feasible to have to sell soybeans to China next year compared to Brazil, the big competitor.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 1/4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil up 0.29.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 9 3/4 in SRW, up 24 in HRW, up 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 8 3/4; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 1.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal up $4.70; Soyoil down 2.55.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.8% in SRW, up 2.8% in HRW, down 1.0% in HRS; Corn is down 3.3%; Soybeans down 0.2%; Soymeal down 3.6%; Soyoil up 2.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 1 yuan; Soymeal up 31; Soyoil up 114; Palm oil up 42; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 39.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+0.86%) at 4578.

There were changes in registrations (-4 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 462 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 820 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,021 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 13 were: SRW Wheat down 3,289 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,151, Corn up 5,216, Soybeans up 1,087, Soymeal up 2,173, Soyoil up 1,914.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 13 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: An active pattern during the next 5 days will bring heavy rainfall across the Mississippi River Delta region north through the eastern Midwest U.S., while dry weather prevails in the southern Plains
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry weather is expected in Argentina through at least the next 10 days, with higher uncertainty in the 11-15 day period
• AUSTRALIA: Widespread warmth remains anticipated across Australia through the next 10-15 days, with anomalies between 3-6 °C above normal
• EUROPE: Wet weather is expected across parts of Eastern Europe during the next 5 days, though widespread dry weather is expected to return shortly after

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL AND NORTHWEST PAMPAS

• Wet weather in the northwest Pampas, unfavorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in North/Central and dry in South Brazil

FORECAST

Discussion: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will develop into a Phase 2-4 event near the end of the 15-day forecast. The Antarctic Oscillation is likely to develop into a positive phase and will support dry weather across Southern Brazil. On EC/GFS numerical model performance, the EC has outperformed the GFS over the past month.

 

Northern Plains: It continues to be quiet and warm, but a system that moves through on Friday is forecast to bring scattered showers and snow, and the snow may be heavy in the eastern Dakotas. Strong winds could create blizzard conditions. With the drought continuing to be an issue heading into spring with no snowpack, this storm would be helpful for building up some soil moisture. Much more is needed, however. Southeastern areas will get a shot at more precipitation from another big storm in the middle of next week.

Central/Southern Plains: Drought still covers a large portion of the region. A massive storm system will move into the region on Friday and is likely to produce precipitation. However, areas to the north and east are more likely to receive substantial amounts while this region will see strong winds and wind damage from the storm instead. An overall lack of precipitation, above-normal temperatures, and strong winds will lead to lowering soil moisture for greening winter wheat and forages. There may be a better chance for precipitation in needed areas in the middle of next week.

Midwest: Very warm temperatures are in place this week. Drought continues to have a grip on much of the region. But a massive storm system will move through Friday and Saturday, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, northwestern snow, and strong winds that could create blizzard conditions. Additional systems are expected to move through behind it next week, which will probably include a band of heavy snow during the middle of next week. The forecast precipitation may help with the drought situation in some areas.

Europe: A series of systems continues to move across the southern end of the continent through this weekend, producing scattered showers. Northwestern areas that do not need much rain right now are staying drier. Recent warm temperatures have allowed more of the wheat crop to break dormancy, doing so in fairly good condition in most areas. Temperatures rise again next week in overall drier conditions. We will see storms moving back into western areas by late next week, though. Spain should continue to see beneficial rainfall as well.

Black Sea: Temperatures continue to be very warm, encouraging green-up for winter wheat. However, soils are very dry and wheat will find overall poor conditions. An active pattern over Europe will only produce streaks of precipitation across Ukraine and southwestern Russia going into next week. Northern sections stand to benefit the most and some areas are likely to remain dry across the south, continuing the poor weather conditions.

 

The player sheet for 3/13 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat in an international tender on Thursday
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender seeking up to 138,000 tons on Thursday
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) bought around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in a private deal late on Wednesday without issuing an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued a new international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY AUCTION: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it would seek 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 794.8K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 981K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending March 6.

• Soybean sales rose to 795k tons vs 408k in previous week
• Corn sales rose to 981k tons vs 961k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 866k tons vs 416k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending March 6, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 208k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 432k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Panama with 238k tons

 

Brazil 2024-25 Corn Crop Seen at 122.8M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 122m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 125m tons
• Yield seen higher at 5,806 kg/ha vs 5,758 kg/ha last month
• Area planted lowered to 21.144m ha vs 21.192m ha last month
• Soybean production est. raised to 167.4m tons vs 166m tons

 

SLC Agricola Sees Brazil Soy Premium Up After US-China Tariffs

A premium paid for soybeans at Brazil’s physical market is set to rise as a consequence of China’s retaliatory tariffs on US farm goods, Aurélio Pavinato, CEO of producer SLC Agricola, says during earnings conference call.

• If tariffs are long-lasting, premiums in Brazil should rise and offset some of the volatility in the prices of commodity caused by the trade war
  • Donald Trump’s trade policy seen negatively affecting prices of the commodity in the US
• While soybean stockpiles are elevated in China, stocks are smaller in other regions, Pavinato says
  • That should aid soybean prices in the long term

 

Argentine soy crushing workers lift strike after government calls talks

Argentina’s oilseed workers lifted a strike on Thursday which had paralyzed soy processing plants since the day before, their union said, after the government called to restart talks with biodiesel firm Explora.

Union SOEA and the Federacion Aceitera organization launched a strike late on Wednesday after authorities stopped a protest outside Explora’s offices in the grains hub of Rosario over layoffs.

The strike temporarily halted soy processing in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

“We’ve been notified by the labor secretariat, which has urged the parties to maintain peace and hold dialogue with Explora,” SOEA and the Federacion Aceitera said in a joint statement.

The groups said that their strike had been lifted and that a meeting with Explora was scheduled for Monday afternoon.

An unrelated strike over wage demands was set to start on Wednesday, but the Argentine government late on Tuesday ordered a mandatory conciliation between the parties.

In the South American country, the government can call for a compulsory conciliation period during which unions must suspend strike action and the parties must try to reach an agreement.

SOEA and the Federacion Aceitera complied with the decision in calling off the previously planned strike, but they said Explora was out of compliance in laying off workers and allowing the government to repress a protest, forcing them to take action of their own.

The groups had first called on Explora to reinstate several fired workers, but they said naval prefecture forces violently broke up a protest outside Explora’s offices earlier this week.

“The (national) government crossed the line,” Martin Morales, union secretary of SOEA, told Reuters.

 

Heavy rains in Argentina nourish soybean crop

Expected soybean output in Argentina’s agricultural heartland is growing thanks to widespread rainfall in recent days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange (BdeC) said on Thursday, also noting that plantings in northern farmlands still need water.

Argentina is the world’s leading exporter of processed soybeans. The current harvest is expected to reach 49.6 million metric tons, according to the BdeC’s latest forecast.

“In production hubs, the rains in February and early March have favored grain filling in early-season soybeans, with a positive impact on yields,” according to the exchange’s weekly crop report.

Regarding the 2024/25 corn crop, the BdeC noted that rainfall in recent weeks has led to an improvement in crop conditions in Cordoba and Buenos Aires provinces, but also left some fields in central and southern Buenos Aires waterlogged.

Farmers in the world’s third-largest corn-exporting nation have harvested about 8% of the crop, according to the exchange, which sees the harvest reaching some 49 million tons.

 

China set for rapeseed meal shortage after 100% duty on top supplier Canada

• Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures jump over 8% after tariffs on Canada
• China may look to India, Russia for alternative supplies
• Availability of rapeseed meal is limited in international market

China is likely to face a supply shortage of rapeseed meal by the third quarter of this year as Beijing’s tariffs on shipments from top exporter Canada disrupt trade and as alternative sources are unlikely to make up the deficit.

Rapeseed meal futures traded on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have jumped more than 8% since Beijing announced on Saturday a 100% retaliatory tariff on imports of rapeseed meal and oil from Canada effective March 20.

“The introduction of this tax increase policy instantly broke the original trade balance,” consultancy Mysteel wrote in a note.

Chinese tariffs on rapeseed meal and oil came as a surprise to the industry which had been expecting higher duties instead on the oilseed since Beijing started an anti-dumping investigation in September into shipments from Canada.

“Everybody was expecting authorities to announce duties on rapeseed but we were all taken by surprise when this announcement came on oil and meal,” said one trader in Singapore. “It is going to hit feed processors hard as they were looking at importing larger volumes of Canadian meal instead of the oilseed.”

Rapeseed is an oilseed crop which is processed into oil for cooking and a variety of other products, including renewable fuels, while the remaining rapeseed meal is used as high-protein animal feed and fertilizer.

China relies on top grower Canada for more than 70% of its rapeseed meal imports and nearly all of the oilseed imports. Rapeseed is also known as canola.

For now, China has ample supply of rapeseed, meal and oil after hefty imports in the fourth quarter last year, buffering against an immediate supply shock.

But traders and analysts warned of an impending shortage by the third quarter of this year when the stockpile depletes.

 

Vietnam reviewing duties to boost imports of US LNG, farm goods

• Chinh says Vietnam working on lower duties also on US farm goods
• Vietnam’s trade minister meets US trade rep in Washington
• Vietnam is among top exporters to US, has huge trade surplus
• Nascent LNG industry in Vietnam relies on purchases in spot market

Vietnam is reviewing its duties on U.S. goods, including on liquefied natural gas, agriculture and high-tech products, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told the U.S. ambassador to the country, a report on the government’s website said.

The Southeast Asian industrial hub, which is heavily reliant on exports to the United States and has a large trade surplus with Washington, exceeding $123 billion in 2024, is scrambling to avoid reciprocal tariffs that the Trump administration has threatened globally to reduce America’s trade deficit.

Chinh said “relevant ministries, sectors and agencies are actively reviewing import tariffs on goods from the United States, encouraging increased imports of key U.S. products that Vietnam needs, especially agricultural products, liquefied gas and high-tech products,” the report on the government portal said.

Chinh met U.S. Ambassador Marc Knapper on Thursday.

Vietnam’s trade minister Nguyen Hong Dien delivered a similar message to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during his visit to Washington that is currently underway, according to a statement published on the ministry’s website on Friday.

They discussed ways to promote business ties “through proactively reviewing and considering the removal of trade barriers,” according to the Vietnamese trade ministry.

During the visit to Washington, Dien plans to have meetings with top U.S. trade and energy officials with the aim of reaching unspecified deals, according to a Vietnam government document seen by Reuters.

In a possible positive sign, a delegation of more than 60 U.S. corporations plans to visit Vietnam later in March, according to the US-ASEAN Business Council, the advocacy group that has organised the trip.

The organiser declined to name any of the participants, which in past years included top U.S. tech, defence and energy firms.

U.S. businesses and manufacturers in Vietnam voiced concerns about their operations in case of tariffs, according to a February survey.

 

Bolivia’s soy farmers on edge as fuel shortage hits harvest

In Bolivia’s farm region of Santa Cruz, a worsening fuel shortage is starting to hit farmers’ ability to harvest their crops, a concern for the embattled South American country where agriculture has become a key economic driver.

The fuel scarcity, which has led to long lines at the pump, stems from a slide in foreign currency reserves over the last decade and dwindling local gas production that is reaching crisis levels. The situation is rattling the government of President Luis Arce, which has sought to cap prices with subsidies.

“If there is no fuel, producers will go deeper into debt,” said Joel Eizaguirre, a soybean producer in the lowland region of Santa Cruz, the main farm belt of the country.

“We’re going to be left with producers who will start to make other choices, and it’s going to affect everyone.”

Jaime Fernando Hernandez, manager of oilseed and wheat group ANAPO, said that if there was not enough diesel for the farm machinery and tractors, then a large amount of food – including soy, corn and sorghum – could be lost. This would send ripples through the food chain and affect production of livestock, chicken, milk and eggs.

“The impact in terms of productivity and food production could be truly catastrophic,” he said.

Bolivia’s government, under growing pressure due to the dollar and fuel crisis, has moved to try to ease imports, letting state energy firm YPFB use cryptocurrency to pay for fuel cargoes and to pay companies.

Farmer Eizaguirre said he would prefer to pay more for fuel than to not have enough, referring to the parallel exchange rate that has hit more than 11 bolivianos per dollar versus 6.86 at the controlled official rate amid the hard-currency shortage.

“Personally, I’d rather have fuel cost 11 bolivianos than not have enough fuel to harvest our grain, or not be able to plant during this approaching winter,” he said.

 

Brazil trade chamber OKs import tax cuts on more food products

Brazil’s trade chamber, known as Camex, has agreed to eliminate import taxes on certain products to curb food inflation, it said in a statement on Thursday.

The decision was unanimous, Brazilian Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, who also serves as trade, industry and development minister, told reporters in Brasilia.

“These are emergency measures to reduce taxes, to reduce food costs and to help, at this exceptional time, to reduce inflation, especially food inflation,” Alckmin said, after the government rolled out similar cuts last week.

The measures will take effect on Friday and will continue for as long as necessary to reduce food prices, he said.

Alckmin said the estimated cost of the exemptions, if they last for one year, is 650 million reais ($112.07 million), though he expects their duration to be shorter.

The import tax exemptions apply to foodstuffs such as boneless beef products, roasted coffee, coffee beans, corn, olive oil, sugar, cookies, pasta and sardines.

The trade chamber falls under Alckmin’s ministry and handles the government’s trade policies and guidelines.

 

 

 

 

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