Global Ag News for Mar 12.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine Says Four Sailors on Wheat Ship Killed in Odesa Attack

• Syrian sailors were on Barbados-flagged vessel loading wheat
• Attack comes as Putin under pressure to accept ceasefire deal

Russia’s missile strike on the Ukrainian port of Odesa late Tuesday killed four Syrian sailors on a ship loading wheat, according to local governor Oleh Kiper.

The attack comes as President Donald Trump puts pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire agreement hammered out in Saudi Arabia by US and Ukrainian negotiators. The accord for a 30-day halt in the conflict, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, now hinges on Vladimir Putin, who may have little incentive to abide by it.

Moscow has stepped up attacks on Odesa and the surrounding region in recent months, hitting mostly energy and municipal targets. That’s led to blackouts and water shortages in the port city, which is also a major hub for the nation’s crop exports.

The Syrians were crew members on the MJ Pinar, a vessel under the flag of Barbados that was loading wheat for export to Algeria, Kiper said in Telegram post. Two others were injured, while nearby ships, berths and grain storage warehouses were also damaged, he added. Ukraine’s Sea Ports Administration posted pictures showing the impact of the attack.

“It is important that the port infrastructure is protected from terror and free and safe navigation is guaranteed,” Odesa Governor Kiper said.

The fatalities also come as Moscow tries to negotiate a deal with the new Syrian administration to keep a reduced military presence in the Middle East country.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 in SRW, down 4 3/4 in HRW, down 6 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans down 7 1/2; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil down 0.11.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 1/2 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 21 1/4; Soymeal down $4.10; Soyoil down 1.60.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 4 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, down 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans down 22; Soymeal up $0.10; Soyoil down 2.30.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.9% in SRW, down 0.1% in HRW, down 2.2% in HRS; Corn is down 1.6%; Soybeans down 0.1%; Soymeal down 4.4%; Soyoil up 4.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 44 yuan; Soymeal down 33; Soyoil down 58; Palm oil up 42; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is up 1.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 1 ringgit (+0.02%) at 4489.

 

There were changes in registrations (60 Soybeans, -33 Soymeal, -16 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 466 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 799 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,022 Soymeal; 347 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 11 were: SRW Wheat up 4,391 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,761, Corn up 1,298, Soybeans down 367, Soymeal up 3,468, Soyoil up 2,016.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth will dominate the weather pattern across most of the U.S. through the next 7-10 days, barring the Western U.S. which is expected to be cooler than normal
• SOUTH AMERICA: Warmth between 1-5 °C above normal will prevail across the Center West and Southeast of Brazil through 10 days, before a milder pattern could arrive in the 11-15 day period
• EAST ASIA: Southern China could receive heavy precipitation up to 75 mm above normal through 10 days, while modest totals are expected elsewhere
• EUROPE: Significant warmth is expected in eastern Europe during the next 5 days, before a closer to normal pattern arrives in the 6-10 day period

 

A ROUND OF RAINS WILL MOVE ALONG COASTAL BRAZIL WHILE ARGENTIA WILL DRY OUT AGAIN

What to Watch:

• After a brief cool stretch, warmth/dryness will overspread Argentina once again into the foreseeable future in a mostly positive trend for corn/soybeans at this stage
• A round of mostly coastal rains and a late March cool-down will be the only deviations from a warm and dry Brazil outlook, with mixed impacts on crops
• Paraguay will experience mild weather conditions through the next couple weeks with favorable impacts on corn/soybeans

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday, heavier east. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures variable Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers southeast Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday, falling Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

Midwest West: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

Midwest East: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Scattered showers east Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures variable Sunday-Thursday.

 

The player sheet for 3/11 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 133,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Tuesday.
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tons of milling wheat, which closed on Tuesday.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice was estimated at $429.55 a ton CIF liner out.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 tons of soft milling wheat.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 79,976 tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy milling wheat.
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY AUCTION: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 65,000 tons of feed wheat and 25,000 tons of feed barley to be loaded by June 30 and arrive in Japan by August 28, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction held on March 12.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 7 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.081m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 27.168m bbl vs 27.289m a week ago

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Output Seen at 168.7M Tons

Brazil soybean production est. seen 2.7m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est. made in February, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 165.9m tons to 174.9m tons
• Brazil’s corn crop seen 3m tons higher at 125m tons

 

Argentine oilseed workers to strike over Vicentin wage dispute

Argentine oilseed workers will launch a nationwide strike on Wednesday at soybean processing plants due to a wage dispute with conglomerate Vicentin, a union leader said on Tuesday.

Earlier on Tuesday, the SOEA union kicked off a strike at Vicentin’s San Lorenzo and Ricardone plants in the grains hub of Rosario, union leader Martin Morales said, with employees at the firm being paid just a fraction of last month’s wages.

On Wednesday, the strike will expand across Argentina and the Federacion Aceitera organization will join in, Morales added.

The strike will last indefinitely, a union source told Reuters.

An internal document from Vicentin, seen by Reuters, said that the firm was “unable to pay the full amount of February’s accrued wages” and that employees were scheduled to be paid 30% of what was owed to them on March 10.

Vicentin’s inability to fully pay out is due to a “critical financial situation,” the document read.

Once the country’s largest marketer of processed soybeans, which for years have been Argentina’s most valuable export, Vicentin has been in bankruptcy proceedings since 2020.

The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters.

 

Brazil’s soy export forecast for March raised by more than 4%

Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 15.45 million metric tons in March, up more than 4% compared with last week’s forecast as the country continues to harvest its massive new crop, according to data from the grain exporters lobby Anec on Tuesday.

The export figure still depends on confirmation of shipments scheduled through the end of the month. If nothing changes, it would be the largest volume shipped in any month of March on record, according to Anec data.

The all-time record for any month was April 2021, when 15.7 million tons of soy were shipped out of Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter.

The best March for soy exports was also in that year, with 14.9 million tons shipped, Anec said.

Brazil’s soy exports would grow by almost 2 million tons compared with March last year if the 15.45 million-ton forecast is effectively reached, according to the data.

In the first months of 2024, delays in Brazil’s soybean harvest affected the pace of soy exports.

China is the main destination for Brazil’s soy exports and the U.S. and Argentina compete with the country in world markets.

Anec also raised its forecast for soybean meal exports from Brazil to 2.38 million tons in March, up from 2 million in the previous forecast. That would mark an estimated annual increase of almost 600,000 tons.

If the volume of soybean meal exports is confirmed, it would also be slightly below the record of 2.46 million tons exported in October last year, according to Anec data.

Even as soybean and meal shipments gain momentum, the total corn to be exported in March, an estimated 412,000 tons, will almost triple last March’s volume, Anec forecast.

 

Russia Distributes More Wheat Export Quota Among 9 Companies

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry issued an order to distribute some of the remaining wheat export quota for 2025, according to the ministry’s website.

• A total of about 26,660 tons will be distributed to nine companies, according to calculations by the Russian Union of Grain Exporters
• NOTE: The total volume of the 2025 wheat quota is 10.6m tons, and it is in force between Feb. 15 and June 30; about 8.6 million tons of the quota was distributed in Feb.

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.