Global Ag News for June 8
TODAY – U.S. Crop Progress and Conditions for June 6
Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/2 in SRW, up 8 3/4 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is up 9; Soybeans up 11 1/2; Soymeal up $0.16; Soyoil up 0.65.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, down 17 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 20 1/4; Soybeans up 16; Soymeal down $0.78; Soyoil up 1.74. For the month to date wheat prices are up 25 in SRW, up 25 1/2 in HRW, up 67 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 66 1/4; Soybeans up 78 3/4; Soymeal down $7.00; Soyoil up 7.25.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 61 yuan ; Soymeal up 15; Soyoil down 164; Palm oil down 198; Corn down 26 — Malasyian Palm is down 85. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 85 ringgit (-2.06%) at 4044 headed for its biggest drop in more than two weeks on concerns about dwindling exports and a rise in output in second-biggest grower Malaysia.
Managed funds were net sellers of wheat and soymeal, even corn and bought soybeans and soyoil.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers southeast through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. East: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday, east Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday-Wednesday.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 7 were: SRW Wheat up 352 contracts, HRW Wheat down 7,516, Corn up 6,127, Soybeans down 2,369, Soymeal up 1,845, Soyoil down 2,635.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 868 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency, OAIC, issued an international tender to purchase milling wheat. The tender sought a nominal 50,000 tonnes but Algeria often buys considerably more in its tenders than the nominal volume sought.
- VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Sunday it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival August 1-20.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
- WHEAT BRAN TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 20,000 tonnes of wheat bran.
U.S. Inspected 1.413m Tons of Corn for Export, 237k of Soybean
In week ending June 3, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.
- Wheat: 419k tons vs 260k the previous wk, 510k a yr ago
- Corn: 1,413k tons vs 2,104k the previous wk, 1,221k a yr ago
- Soybeans: 237k tons vs 194k the previous wk, 274k a yr ago
Brazil 2021 Soybean Exports Seen at 86m MT vs 83m in ‘20: Safras
Soy crush seen at 46.7m metric tons in 2021, compared to 46.9m in 2020, consultancy firm Safras & Mercados says in emailed report.
- Total soy supply seen +3% y/y to 140.6m mt, with total demand +2% to 136.1m mt
- Final stockpiles to rise 60% to 4.52m mt
- Production of soybean meal seen -5% to 35.8m mt
- Production of soyoil seen -1% to 9.45m mt
Argentine customs strike on Tuesday to hit grain export – port manager
BUENOS AIRES, June 7 (Reuters) – Grain exports from Argentina were likely to be affected by a seven-hour strike by customs officers on Tuesday, as the officials press for priority access to coveted COVID-19 vaccinations, the port manager said on Monday.
Such a short work stoppage was not expected to have a major impact on shipments from Argentina. But shipments could get bogged down if longer strikes are called.
Russian Wheat Exports Rose 8% So Far This Season: Agency
Wheat shipments for the current season totaled 36.8m tons as of June 3, the Federal Center of Quality & Safety Assurance for Grain & Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.
- NOTE: That means wheat exports totaled about 300,000 tons in week to June 3, compared with 100,000 tons a week before
- Exports of all grains are at 47.3m tons so far this season; no comparative data was given for the year-earlier period
- NOTE: Data are preliminary and include exports to the Eurasian Economic Union, a customs union of countries that includes Russia
France Sees Winter-Rapeseed Crop at Smallest Since 2001
The winter-rapeseed harvest in France is seen at 2.95m tons, down 9.2% y/y and the smallest crop since 2001, France’s agriculture ministry said Tuesday in a report.
- Slightly better yields versus 2020 fails to offset the decline in plantings
- Production expected to be 32% below the five-year average
- Winter-barley output is estimated at 7.74m tons, up 19% y/y
- Worries about crop impacts from April frosts have not yet been confirmed, aside from replanting of tens of thousands of sugar-beet hectares, ministry says
- Corn planting estimate pared to 1.5m hectares, versus 1.52m hectares seen in May
- That puts the area even with the five-year average
- Outlook for soft-wheat area kept about steady at 4.9m hectares, barley little changed at 1.81m hectares, and sugar-beet area near flat at 397k hectares
EU Soft-Wheat Exports at 24.7m Tons in Season Through June 6
Shipments during the season that began July 1 amounted to 24.7m tons as of June 6, versus 33.3m tons in the same period a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.
- NOTE: Trade data included for France is as of June 2, the agency says
- Top destinations are Algeria (5.53m tons), Morocco (2.25m tons) and Nigeria (2.16m tons)
- EU corn imports totaled 13.6m tons, versus 18.9m tons a year earlier
- NOTE: Data for the 2020-21 season includes trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, when the country departed the EU customs union
- Figures for the entire prior year include U.K. trade
CROP SURVEY: Cotton Production, Inventories Before USDA WASDE
U.S. 2021-22 cotton ending stocks seen down 115,000 bales to 2.99m bales vs USDA’s previous estimate, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.
- Estimates ranged from 2.3m bales to 4.05m bales
- Global ending stocks seen 353,000 bales lower at 90.64m bales
Ukraine Wheat Crop Estimate Raised on Good Weather: UAC
Ukraine’s 2021 wheat crop is now seen at 28.8m tons, up by 1.2m tons from a May estimate, Kyiv-based researcher UkrAgroConsult says in a report.
- Barley estimate raised by 200k tons to 8.4m tons
- Both crops have seen good weather and forecasts point to favorable conditions in June
- Wheat yields seen matching the record level from the 2016-17 season
- Export outlook raised to 21.2m tons, from 20m tons
- Corn prospects are less certain, and crop estimate left steady at 37m tons
- Low temperatures in May slowed growth, increasing the risk that corn may have not have time to sufficiently develop before potential July heat
World’s biggest biofuel producer to build refinery in Quebec to make diesel out of forestry waste
In Quebec, Neste Oyj aims to build a refinery that would use forestry waste such as treetops and branches to produce renewable diesel, Jeremy Baines, president of the Finnish company’s North American operations, said in an interview.
The search for additional feedstocks comes as demand strains availability of traditional biofuel ingredients like soy oil, contributing to food inflation and destruction of forests to plant crops. More fossil-fuel companies are entering the market, and U.S. production capacity for renewable diesel is expected to jump almost sixfold by the end of 2024, according to JPMorgan Chase Co. Neste said it isn’t worried about heightened competition for raw materials.
Russia wheat exports strengthen in June; 2020/21 Argentina wheat exports may decline 20% – Refinitiv Commodities Research
Russia started the formula-based grain export tax on 2 June 2021, which is lower than the 50 euros per tonne export tax for wheat imposed during March-May 2021. The Russia line-up data (released on 7 June) shows that 1.8 million tons (mmt) of wheat were delivered or waiting for delivery in Russia so far, significantly above wheat exports in May (0.45 mmt). 2020/21 Russia wheat exports (July/June) may end at 35.3 mmt, well below USDA’s May projection of 39.5 mmt.
Argentina wheat exports continued to decline as the peak exports season passed. Refinitiv trade flows tracked 0.6 million tons of wheat exports in May, down 17% from a month ago, but 25% above the 5-year average exports for the month. Assuming the relatively strong export pace through November, wheat exports for 2020/21 are estimated at 9.4 mmt, down about 20% from last season.
India Palm Oil Imports May Fall 16% on High Prices: GGN Research
Purchases by the world’s top importer will probably drop to 650,000 tons this month from a four-month high of 771,000 tons estimated for May as global prices make processing less attractive, according to G.G. Patel, managing partner of GGN Research.
- Soybean oil imports by India may climb to 300,000-325,000 tons in June from an estimated 268,000 tons in May: Patel
- Sunflower oil purchases may drop to 125,000-150,000 tons from 173,000 tons
Australia raises wheat forecast by 11% after wet Autumn
Australia on Tuesday raised its wheat production forecast during the 2021/22 season by 11.2% from a forecast three months ago after rains across several major growing regions improved the prospects for yields.
- The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said it now expects production during the season ending June 30, 2022 to total 27.8 million tonnes. The bureau’s previous forecast in March had been 25 million tonnes.
- While the rains across Australia’s east coast has aided grain production, it has also led to a so-called mouse plague that has destroyed some acreage.
- Early indicators are that mouse numbers have peaked in most regions as cold and wet winter conditions slow breeding rates,” said Greenville.
- Australian growers are expected to harvest 4.2 million tonnes of canola, up from the 3.5 million tonnes forecast in March.
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