Global Ag News for June 26.24

TOP HEADLINES

Summit Wins Approval in Iowa for Carbon-Capture Pipeline

• Company needs approval in North and South Dakota to move ahead
• Proposed carbon pipeline has faced opposition from farmers

A controversial plan for an $8 billion pipeline to trap and store climate harming carbon emissions from ethanol plants across the heart of America’s Corn Belt has been approved in Iowa, pending some changes and permissions in other states.

The Iowa Utilities Board on Tuesday announced initial approval for Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed pipeline to run through 29 counties in the state, the top US producer of corn.

Iowa’s decision puts Summit closer to its goal of having the project up and running by early 2026. The timeline has been delayed by two years amid landowner opposition, including by some farmers, and regulatory hurdles. Supporters of the pipeline project view it as crucial for increasing the climate-friendly credentials of the ethanol industry, long criticized by some environmentalists.

Summit, whose backers include energy billionaire Harold Hamm, seeks to build a roughly 2,500-mile pipeline through five US Midwestern states. Still, the company has said it can move ahead with the project with a minimum of approvals from three states: Iowa, South Dakota and North Dakota (the latter two are still pending.)

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 3 1/2; Soymeal down $0.30; Soyoil up 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 15 in SRW, down 3 1/2 in HRW, down 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/2; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil down 1.13.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 138 3/4 in SRW, down 139 3/4 in HRW, down 143 in HRS; Corn is down 23 1/4; Soybeans down 69 1/2; Soymeal down $17.00; Soyoil down 2.81.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 13.8% in SRW, down 10.1% in HRW, down 17.2% in HRS; Corn is down 9.3%; Soybeans down 9.0%; Soymeal down 4.4%; Soyoil down 9.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 9 yuan; Soymeal up 6; Soyoil down 14; Palm oil up 2; Corn up 16 — Malaysian Palm is up 26.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.67%) at 3885.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 218 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 25 were: SRW Wheat up 2,836 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,633, Corn down 10,605, Soybeans down 2,889, Soymeal down 15,893, Soyoil up 9,576.

 

Northern Plains: Flooding continues to be an issue for southeastern South Dakota. A system is still producing showers in South Dakota on Tuesday and another will bring scattered showers through the region later this week and weekend. Another moves through early next week, keeping the region active. Temperatures will waffle around as systems come and go but much colder temperatures are forecast for the weekend. There is a slight risk of frost in some areas.

Central/Southern Plains: Temperatures will remain hot for the next few days, especially south. A front will move through with chances for thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday and another will move through Thursday through the weekend with more and some cooler air, especially north. The active storm track is favoring northern and western areas with rain while southeastern areas are getting drier after flooding rains in May and early June. The heat will be stressful to crops when it exists, but those across the north are seeing better precipitation and mostly good conditions for developing corn and soybeans.

Midwest: Flooding continues to be an issue along the Minnesota-Iowa border through southern Wisconsin. Storms that developed Monday night made that worse in Wisconsin. Several more storm systems will move through the region going into next week, providing some better shower chances for those in the east that have been very hot and dry for the last week or two. The rain should help with flash drought conditions that are developing in some areas. The pattern stays active well into July, a favorable look to the forecast. Northwestern areas would like to see a break and dry conditions, but will not find it.

Europe: A system has moved into the Mediterranean, where showers will continue for Italy and the southeast for the next few days, favorable for increasing soil moisture for drought areas in the southeast. Another couple of systems will move through the continent later this week and weekend, but models have backed off on the heavy rainfall potential for France and Germany, which are getting a needed break from the rain.

Black Sea: A couple of fronts and systems will bring some limited showers through the region this week and next, but rainfall deficits continue to be large throughout most of the region and will have an adverse effect on developing corn and sunflowers. Temperatures will not be overly hot, but should trend more above normal by later this week, especially across Ukraine, where temperatures will be much higher.

Australia: A system will move through western areas midweek and through eastern areas late this week and weekend. Widespread rainfall, though only light in some areas, should be favorable for wheat and canola establishment in most areas.

 

The player sheet for 6/25 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 15,000 corn, sellers of 10,000 soybeans, sellers of 7,000 soymeal, and sellers of 6,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 209,931 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico. Of that, 22,098 tons is for delivery in the 2023/24 marketing year and 187,833 tons is for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it bought 470,000 metric tons of wheat in an international tender. The purchase comprised 50,000 tons of Bulgarian wheat, 60,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat, 180,000 tons of Russian wheat and 180,000 tons of Romanian wheat, GASC said.
• CORN, WHEAT PURCHASES: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought an estimated 135,000 metric tons of animal feed corn all expected to be sourced from South America in an international tender.
• MILLING WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat for shipment to two ports only.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 21 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.065m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.683m bbl vs 23.617m a week ago

 

CROP SURVEY: Canada 2024 Wheat Planting Seen at 27.2M Acres

Canada 2024-25 wheat area seen mostly unchanged from the national statistics agency’s previous est., according to a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts. Statistics Canada in Ottawa is scheduled to release its latest estimates on June 27 at 8:30am ET.

• Wheat seen at 27.2m acres vs 27m acres in March
• Estimates varied from 25.6m to 28m acres
• Canola acreage also seen mostly unchanged at 21.5m acres

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 14.50 Million Tns In June Versus 14.88 Million Tns Estimated Last Week – Anec

• Brazil: Click here for figures on oilseed trade
• NOTE: Export data for France are incomplete from the beginning of 2024; figures for Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete since the start of the season
• NOTE: The next report will be released July 9 after the start of the next marketing year

 

Ukraine 2024-25 Wheat Exports to Drop 25% to 13.6m Tons: SovEcon

Ukraine’s wheat exports will probably total 13.6m tons in the 2024-25 season, down 25% y/y, SovEcon head Andrey Sizov said in a note.

• Wheat production is seen at 20.4m tons, down from 21.6m tons a year earlier
  • Carryover stockpiles to fall to 0.9m tons from 4m tons
• Corn exports are expected to decline 23% y/y to 22m tons
  • Output forecast at 27.6m tons vs 31m tons
  • Stockpiles to shrink to 1.5m tons from 4.2m tons
• Smaller output is due to reduced corn planting areas and lower yields for both corn and wheat
• “The reduced grain export potential from Ukraine, coupled with expected smaller supplies from Russia, could support the global grain market”

 

US Hog and Pig Inventory Survey Before USDA Report

The US hog herd as of June 1 seen rising 1.2% from a year earlier to 74.44m head, according to the average in a Bloomberg Survey of seven analysts.

 

USDA 2024 Food Inflation Estimate at 2.2% Y/y

US retail prices of food are unchanged from last month’s est. at 2.2%, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s latest report.

• The biggest increase from the previous est. was in the pork category
• The biggest decrease was in eggs

 

Argentina sequences leafhopper genome to battle crop-destroying insect

An Argentine scientific institute has cracked the genome of the leafhopper, the insect which carries the bacteria responsible for wiping out vast swathes of the South American nation’s latest corn crop, the government said on Tuesday.

The development, which determined the Dalbulus maidis’ genetic makeup, will serve future efforts to fight off the leafhopper, according to the government statement.

Experts argue that the leafhopper population has surged in recent months largely due to the lack of frosts during last year’s Southern Hemisphere winter, which likely would have killed off the insect.

The tiny bug, which sucks sap out of plants, transmits a bacteria that produces stunt disease in corn, causing the key grains crop to grow ears with loose or missing kernels.

In the 2023/24 season, the Rosario Grains Exchange expects local farmers to harvest 47.5 million metric tons of corn, about a fifth less than originally estimated due to losses caused by the leafhopper.

“This research will help us understand the biology and evolution of the insect, which in turn will help predict and mitigate future outbreaks,” the statement said, adding that the scientific advance could also lead to the development of new varieties of leafhopper-resistant genetically modified corn.

Agricultural analysts have said that farmers will likely plant smaller corn fields in the 2024/25 season due to the pest, although fall and winter frosts should improve prospects for the crop.

 

 

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