Global Ag News for June 18.24

TOP HEADLINES

NOPA May US soy crush tops most trade estimates at 183.625 mln bushels

The U.S. soy crush rebounded in May from a seven-month low the prior month and topped most trade estimates as processors churned through more beans than any previous May on record, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 183.625 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 8.4% from an April crush of 169.436 million bushels. It was also 3.2% above the 177.915 million bushels crushed in May 2023, which was the previous record for the fifth month of the year.

The crush exceeded the average trade estimate of 178.352 million bushels, based on a Reuters survey of 11 analysts. Estimates ranged from 171.350 million to 187.643 million bushels, with a median of 178.000 million bushels.

Numerous U.S. soy processors restarted idled plants last month following widespread downtime in April for seasonal maintenance and repairs.

Soy processors had been crushing at a brisk pace since the fall harvest, with record crush tallies in February and March, to take advantage of good processing margins, which have narrowed since earlier this year.

The May crush was notably higher that a month earlier in the eastern Midwest, Iowa, the northern Plains and the Southwest, but down in top soy producer Illinois, NOPA data showed.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of May 31 fell to 1.724 billion pounds, down 5.9% from the 1.832 billion pounds on hand at the end of April and 7.9% below year-ago stocks of 1.872 billion pounds.

Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to dip to 1.775 billion pounds, according to estimates from eight analysts.

Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 1.675 billion to 1.950 billion pounds, with a median of 1.749 billion pounds.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 1/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $2.20; Soyoil down 0.11.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 24 3/4 in SRW, down 22 in HRW, down 18 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 3/4; Soybeans down 16 3/4; Soymeal down $6.30; Soyoil down 0.20.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 95 3/4 in SRW, down 109 in HRW, down 102 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 51 1/2; Soymeal down $12.30; Soyoil down 2.28.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.7% in SRW, down 5.8% in HRW, down 11.7% in HRS; Corn is down 5.3%; Soybeans down 10.3%; Soymeal down 5.6%; Soyoil down 8.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 18 yuan; Soymeal down 40; Soyoil up 16; Palm oil up 14; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 39. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 39 ringgit (-0.99%) at 3907.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,479 SRW Wheat contracts; 39 Oats; 747 Corn; 405 Soybeans; 2,589 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 17 were: SRW Wheat up 4,174 contracts, HRW Wheat down 6,603, Corn down 17,512, Soybeans up 10,493, Soymeal up 3,633, Soyoil up 5,744.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near normal north and well above normal south Wednesday-Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly northwest. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Canadian Prairies: Days 1-3: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday. Days 4-5: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday. 6-10 Day Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 6/17 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 8,500 corn, sellers of 8,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 84,667 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Wednesday.

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 72% G/E, Soybeans 70%

Highlights from the report:

• Soybeans 70% G/E vs 72% last week, and 54% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 93% vs 87% last week, and 97% a year ago
• Corn 72% G/E vs 74% last week, and 55% a year ago
• Spring wheat 76% G/E vs 72% last week, and 51% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 27% vs 12% last week, and 13% a year ago
• Winter wheat 49% G/E vs 47% last week, and 38% a year ago
• Cotton 54% G/E vs 56% last week, and 47% a year ago
• Cotton planted 90% vs 80% last week, and 87% a year ago

 

US Soybean Crush 183.6M Bu in May Tops Analyst Estimates: NOPA

Processing of 183.6m bushels is above estimates for about 180m in a Bloomberg survey conducted before the release, according to National Oilseed Processors Association data released Monday by Thomson Reuters.

• Crush is also above year-ago figure of 177.9m
• Soybean oil stocks stood at 1.724b pounds at the end of May, below expectations of 1.778b pounds and 1.872b a year ago
• NOTE: NOPA revised April soybean crush to 169.4m, up from the previously reported 166m
  • April soybean oil stocks revised to 1.832b, up from 1.755b previously
  • Inaccurate data from an Indiana processor prompted the revision, NOPA said

US Inspected 1.287m Tons of Corn for Export, 334k of Soybeans

In week ending June 13, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 334k tons vs 234k the previous wk, 180k a yr ago
• Wheat: 375k tons vs 352k the previous wk, 236k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,287k tons vs 1,341k the previous wk, 831k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: June 13

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending June 13 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Indonesia-bound shipments made up 85k tons of the 334k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, South Korea led in wheat

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 21% Done as of June 13: AgRural

Compares with 10% a week earlier and 5% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

That’s the fastest pace since 2013, when AgRural started its weekly data survey

Argus Trims Romania 2024-25 Wheat Crop Estimate to 10.45m tons

Argus cut its forecast for Romania wheat production to 10.45m tons after crop tour, from an April estimate of 10.6m tons, it said by email.

• That would still beat Romania’s 2021-22 production record of 10.43m tons
  • Still, “warmer temperatures are expected in the coming weeks that could adversely affect yields, given the fact that soil moistures remain low”
• Reduction in forecast was due to slightly lower planted area estimates; yield estimate unchanged since April at 4.6 ton/hectare
• “Farmers are planting more winter crops such as barley and wheat and reducing their spring crop plantings of non-irrigated corn” due to recurrent hot summers, Argus said

 

Ukrainian wheat starts new season with higher prices, analyst says

Starting prices for Ukrainian wheat for the 2024 harvest will be 3-8% higher than last year’s prices, but they are likely to fall, consultancy ASAP Agri said late on Monday.

Prices for Ukrainian milling wheat with 11.5% protein content could be 8% higher year on year, while feed wheat could add 3%, the consultancy said.

Ukraine’s wheat harvest is likely to decrease to 21 million metric tons in 2024 from 22.5 million tons in 2023 due to a smaller sowing area.

“Despite prices being higher year on year, we see the trend as bearish, as the harvesting campaign has already started in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Dnipro regions,” the consultancy said.

China allocates 443 mln yuan to support drought prevention work

China’s Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday it has allocated 443 million yuan ($61.1 million) for a disaster relief fund to support drought prevention work in seven provinces, including Hebei, Shanxi and Henan.

The fund will be used for works such as watering, replanting and adding fertiliser in areas that are affected by recent heat and a lack of rainfall, it said.

Brazilian Real Extends Losses, Reaches Fresh YTD Low

Brazilian real extended losses and reached a fresh year-to-date low at 5.4297/USD as traders keep dumping positions in the currency despite the government’s efforts to tamp down worries that country will not reach its fiscal goals.

• BRL is down 0.9%, the worst performing major currency Monday, as traders put it on track to test major support area around 5.50/USD
• Currency is heading to see its sixth session of losses in the last seven sessions
• The unwinding of carry-trade positions in Brazil has been massive amid concern the government won’t reduce expenses, even after failing on increasing revenue as expected
• In order to curb the negative sentiment, several members of the government have spoken publicly in favor of spending cuts

 

 

 

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