Global Ag News For June 18.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil Says Japan Suspended Poultry Purchases From Two Cities

Japan has temporarily suspended poultry imports from Brazilian cities of Santo Antonio da Barra (Goias state) and Campinapolis (Mato Grosso state), Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said in a statement.

Decision comes after confirmation of bird flu cases in non-commercial farms in those cities

Japan has also suspended purchases of hatching eggs and 1-day-old chicks from the whole states of Goias and Mato Grosso

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 3 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil up 0.08.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 in SRW, up 12 3/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans up 14 1/4; Soymeal down $4.30; Soyoil up 4.55.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 19 1/2 in SRW, up 18 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 39; Soymeal down $9.90; Soyoil up 7.79.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 0.4% in SRW, down 1.1% in HRW, up 6.5% in HRS; Corn is down 5.5%; Soybeans up 7.6%; Soymeal down 7.4%; Soyoil up 38.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 25 yuan; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 68; Palm oil up 44; Corn up 8 — Malaysian Palm is up 37.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 37 ringgit (+0.91%) at 4101.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 17 were: SRW Wheat up 2,783 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,995, Corn down 3,038, Soybeans down 9,038, Soymeal up 5,410, Soyoil up 13,086.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 17 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Heavy rainfall is expected from Nebraska through Wisconsin during the next 10 days, while drier conditions are expected in the southern Plains, southern Midwest, and Southeast U.S.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth is expected across Brazil during the next two weeks
• EUROPE: Widespread and significant warmth is expected across much of Europe during the next two weeks, with the warmest anomalies in the west
• EAST ASIA: Extreme rainfall is expected across parts of China during the next 10 days

 

DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF JUNE

What to Watch:

• Shifting warmth across North America
• Much needed rainfall in some regions, while dryness prevails elsewhere

 

Northern Plains: Multiple impulses are forecast to move through the region through next week, a positive sign for those that need some rain and helping to maintain good soil moisture for those that do not.

Central/Southern Plains: The recent run of active weather has continued to pour a bunch of water on top of much of the region, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but is hindering the wheat harvest. Multiple disturbances moving through this week and next will keep chances going, but should become more isolated and likely shift northward with time. A major severe weather event is expected for Kansas on Tuesday after affecting many areas in Nebraska on Monday. That could be a concern for damaging a mature wheat crop awaiting harvest in the area.

Midwest: Key areas from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois have largely missed out on a very active weather pattern so far this season. However, multiple disturbances moving through the region this week and next should provide plenty of opportunity for rainfall. Though with these coming by way of clusters of thunderstorms, some areas are bound to be missed. Areas across the south could use a break as another week of wet weather bogs down fieldwork and remaining planting that is now late. A little burst of heat this weekend into early next week could help some areas dry out that miss out on the rainfall.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Dry weather continues to be hard to find as rain falls with systems and fronts stalling out in the region. That continues this week and probably next as well as moisture from the Gulf streams northward. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations and remaining planting. Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases and causing uneven growth in a lot of the region.

Canadian Prairies: Northern areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are in need of some rain and they will have some opportunity this week. Multiple disturbances and fronts will pass through this week with scattered showers and a bigger system will be likely this weekend into early next week with more widespread rainfall. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

Brazil: Southern areas of the country saw scattered showers over the weekend, which included southern safrinha corn areas. Those areas are maturing and do not need the rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest. However, the rainfall is favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front and couple of systems should continue to produce rainfall into next week, but more for the wheat areas than the corn, which would be favorable for both.

Argentina: Scattered showers moved through the northern half of the country over the weekend, including some areas that were flooded back in May, but also across drier areas in the central and north that could use the rain for winter wheat establishment. A front stalled across the north will continue to produce rainfall this week, which could delay some of the remaining northern harvest, but would continue to build soil moisture for any winter wheat.

Europe: Scattered showers moved through some western countries over the weekend, including some drier areas in France, Germany, and the UK. It is a bit late for winter wheat, but favorable for any spring-sown crops. Hotter and drier conditions this week into next week will be favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent.

Black Sea: Isolated to scattered showers moved back into the region over the weekend, including the very dry areas in the south and east, but were mostly spotty and light. Those showers continue most of this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain in some areas and will need much more. Colder temperatures will move through later this week and weekend and could help to reduce the stress.

Australia: Spotty showers have moved through over the last week, but many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. More periods of limited showers will move through to close out the month of June, but favor the west over the driest areas in the south.

China: Scattered showers went through over the weekend, but favored the corn and soybean areas in the northeast over the winter wheat and canola areas on the North China Plain. With harvest underway and increasing throughout the month, drier weather is now preferred there, though double-cropped corn and soybeans will need more moisture in these areas. A system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall Wednesday and Thursday which would be beneficial for building some soil moisture while also keeping temperatures from getting too stressful.

 

The player sheet for 6/17 had funds: net buyers of 4,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,500 corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and buyers of 500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: Exporters sold 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soymeal to unknown destinations for 2025-26 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought an estimated 550,000 to 570,000 tons of milling wheat in an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending June 13 are based on five analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.106m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.957m bbl vs 23.734m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Down 6%

May placements onto feedlots seen falling y/y to 1.92m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

• Estimates range from -12% to -2.3% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of June 1 seen falling by 1% y/y to 11.46m head
• Marketings seen falling 9.6% y/y

 

China May Imports: Details

China’s exports of rare-earth products fell 31.1% from a year ago in May, according to figures released by the Beijing-based Customs General Administration.

• Soybean imports +36.2% y/y to 13.92M tons
• Corn imports -81.6% y/y to 0.19M tons
• Wheat imports -70.1% y/y to 0.56M tons
• Rice imports +77.6% y/y to 0.3M tons

 

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 14.37 million tons in June – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14.37 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 14.08 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.97 MILLION TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 2.07 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 913,316 TNS IN JUNE VERSUS 923,401 TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

EU 2024/25 soybean imports 13.58 mln T by June 15, rapeseed 6.91 mln T

European Union soybean imports so far in the 2024/25 season that started in July had reached 13.58 million metric tons by June 15, compared with 12.65 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports in the same period totaled 6.91 million tons, against 5.45 million a year earlier, while soymeal imports reached 18.62 million tons, compared with 14.70 million a year prior.

EU palm oil imports were at 2.74 million tons, against 3.36 million tons a year earlier.

 

German Total Grain-Output Forecast Raised for 2025 Season: DRV

Germany’s 2025 total grains harvest is estimated at 41.4m tons, up from last month’s forecast of 40.7m tons, agricultural cooperatives group DRV said in a report.

• That would be 6% higher than the 2024 crop
• Estimates include:
  • Wheat seen at 21.5m tons, up from May’s forecast of 21m tons
  • Barley at 10.1m tons, up from 10m tons
  • Corn seen steady at 4.6m tons
• “After the long dry phase, the rain came just in time to protect the grain and rapeseed stocks from significant damage. Confidence has returned for this year’s harvest,” said Guido Seedler, DRV grain market expert
• Sustained rainfall is still needed over the next three or four weeks to ensure a good wheat crop

 

India May Oilmeals Exports Fall to 315,326 Tons

India’s oilmeals exports fell to 315,326 tons in May from 465,863 tons in April, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Rapeseed meal exports fell to 134,562 tons from 213,023 tons in April
• Soymeal exports fell to 156,801 tons from 230,743 tons in April
• Castorseed meal exports fell to 18,648 tons from 18,970 tons in April

 

Indian Farmers Boost Sowing of Rice, Pulses and Sugar Cane

The area allocated to monsoon-sown rice crops has increased 13.3% from a year earlier to 453,000 hectares (1.1 million acres) as of June 13, according to India’s agriculture ministry.

Farmers have planted pulses on 307,000 hectares of farmland, climbing 18% from a year earlier, the ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. Sugar cane planting has increased to 5.51 million hectares, up from 5.49 million hectares, it said.

Rains have been 17% below normal so far in the monsoon period that runs from June to September, according to the India Meteorological Department. Sowing normally begins in late May, while harvesting typically starts in late September.

 

Export duty on Russian wheat falls 13.3% to 566 rubles per tonne from June 18

The duty on Russian wheat exports as of June 18 is 566 rubles per tonne compared to 652.5 rubles per tonne the previous week, the Agriculture Ministry said. The duty therefore decreases 13.3%.

The duty on barley is again zero, while the duty on corn rises from 359.9 rubles to 397.3 rubles per tonne. The rates were calculated based on indicative prices of $238.2 per tonne for wheat ($240.5 in the previous period), $201.4 for barley ($204), and $220.9 for corn ($220.9).

The new rates will remain in effect until June 24.

 

Dry weather forecast threatens Ukrainian wheat production

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 20.1 [19.1-21.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production is kept at 20.1 [19.1-21.1] million tons (mmt), but dry weather forecast poses risk for upcoming harvest. Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 19.0 million tons.

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine experienced a shift from warmer to cooler conditions. Rain surpluses (33 mm above normal) occurred only in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, which worsen soil moisture deficits in other Oblasts. The prevailing dry and cold weather has led to regional disparities in crop development. In the eastern and southern regions, drought and heat stress accelerated crop maturation and may trigger early harvesting in late June. Conversely, cooler temperatures in the west and north have delayed crop ripening, potentially extending the grain-fill period and raising yield potential.

According to the latest weather forecast, cool and dry conditions should continue for the next two weeks. The long-term weather outlook for July predicts warm and dry weather conditions, which should be favorable for harvest operations, but may negatively affect soil moisture reserves.

 

 

 

 

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