Global Ag News For June 17.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Romania Set for Biggest Wheat Crop Since 1997, Argus Says

Romania is expected to see its largest wheat harvest in records dating back to 1997 in the next season, setting it up for another year as one of Europe’s top exporters.

Output is expected to reach 12.2 million tons for the 2025-26 season that starts in July, Argus Media said in a forecast after a crop tour earlier in June. That compares to an estimated 10.2 million tons in the current season.

The jump comes as a result of better yields and a larger planted area, the report said.

Romania’s role in the global wheat market has grown in prominence, with the CME Group Inc. using prices at its ports as well as those in neighboring Bulgaria to inform its planned new Black Sea futures contract after trading in a previous contract was suspended following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the current season Romanian wheat shipments are running above the European Union’s usual main exporter, France, according to European Commission data through April. The French harvest in 2024 was severely hit by excessive rainfall.

“Romania’s wheat harvest is expected to begin within four weeks, depending on the region, later than last year, as colder weather slowed crop development,” according to the Argus Media outlook. Still, “weather is forecast drier and warmer in the coming weeks, normal for Romania and posing no risk to the crops in their final stages of development.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal up $0.30; Soyoil down 0.54.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 1 1/4 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is down 6; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal down $6.60; Soyoil up 3.72.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 7 1/4 in SRW, up 6 3/4 in HRW, down 2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 34 1/4; Soymeal down $12.10; Soyoil up 7.26.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.0% in SRW, down 3.6% in HRW, up 4.4% in HRS; Corn is down 5.2%; Soybeans up 7.2%; Soymeal down 7.7%; Soyoil up 37.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 10 yuan; Soymeal up 22; Soyoil up 42; Palm oil up 98; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is down 28.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 28 ringgit (-0.68%) at 4066.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 16 were: SRW Wheat down 3,624 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,260, Corn down 2,290, Soybeans up 1,588, Soymeal up 24,113, Soyoil down 3,792.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 16 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Warmth will prevail across most U.S. spring crop regions through the next 10 days, though the picture is opaquer thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Little to no rainfall expected in the Pampas region of Argentina during the next 10 days
• BLACK SEA: Cool weather is expected across the Black Sea region through the next two weeks, with the largest anomalies coming in the 6-10 day period
• SOUTH ASIA: Widespread cool and wet anomalies are expected across the northern half of India during the next 10+ days

DRY WEATHER IN THE PAMPAS, MODERATE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in the Pampas
• Wet spells in South, southern Center West

 

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above to well above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Wednesday. 

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Canadian Prairies: Days 1-3: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday. Days 4-5: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday. 6-10 Day Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures falling Saturday, below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 6/16 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 21,000 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 8,000 soymeal, and buyers of 24,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 95,450 tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 72% G/E, Soybeans 66%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 72% G/E vs 71% last week, and 72% a year ago
• Soybeans 66% G/E vs 68% last week, and 70% a year ago
• Soybeans planted 93% vs 90% last week, and 92% a year ago
• Winter wheat 52% G/E vs 54% last week, and 49% a year ago
• Spring wheat 57% G/E vs 53% last week, and 76% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 10% vs 4% last week, and 25% a year ago
• Cotton 48% G/E vs 49% last week, and 54% a year ago
• Cotton planted 85% vs 76% last week, and 89% a year ago

 

US Inspected 1.673m Tons of Corn for Export, 216k of Soybeans

In week ending June 12, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 216k tons vs 559k the previous wk, 341k a yr ago
• Wheat: 389k tons vs 324k the previous wk, 412k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,673k tons vs 1,729k the previous wk, 1,381k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: June 12

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending June 12 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Germany-bound shipments made up 58k tons of the 216k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, Nigeria led in wheat

 

NOPA May US soy crush at 192.829 million bushels, below most trade estimates

The U.S. soybean crush in May was lighter than most trade estimates but still reached the highest-ever total for the fifth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 192.829 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 1.4% from the April crush of 190.226 million bushels and up 5.0% from the May 2024 crush of 183.625 million bushels. It was the largest May crush ever and the eighth-largest for any month on record, NOPA data showed.

U.S. crush rates have swelled as several new processing plants have opened while other facilities have expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers. But the processing pace in recent months has slowed from maximum capacity as some plants have decelerated crush rates due to narrowing margins and a glut of soy products, analysts said.

The average daily crush pace slipped to 6.220 million bushels in May, down from 6.341 million bushels a month earlier and the slowest daily rate since September, according to NOPA data.

The May crush fell short of the average trade estimate of 193.519 million bushels in a Reuters poll of 11 analysts. Estimates ranged from 188.500 million to 195.933 million bushels, with a median of 194.200 million bushels.

Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of May 31 dropped to 1.373 billion pounds, down 10.1% from a 10-month peak of 1.527 billion pounds at the end of April and down 20.3% from the 1.724 billion pounds in stocks a year earlier.

Stocks, on average, were expected to decline to 1.451 billion pounds, according to estimates from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.190 billion to 1.550 billion pounds, with a median of 1.482 billion pounds.

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest at 5.2% as of June 12: AgRural

Compares with 1.9% a week earlier and 21% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• “Harvest progressed slower than expected for another week due to high humidity”: AgRural
• In western Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul and areas of Mato Grosso, some producers were unable to move their machines forward last week due to the high humidity levels of the grains
• Expectation is that rainfall will decrease in Mato Grosso, where the harvest could pick up speed
• In western Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul, however, rainfall is expected to continue, making further progress difficult

 

Russian wheat export prices fell last week due to improved harvest forecast

Russian wheat export prices decreased last week as a new crop approached the market and amid moderately positive harvest forecasts, analysts said.

The price for new crop Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery by July-end was $222 per metric ton, down $3 from last week’s prices, said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.

The SovEcon consultancy estimated new crop offers at $225-$229 per ton, compared with $225–$230 the week before.

Sovecon lowered its estimate of wheat exports in June to 1.5 million tons from 1.7 million tons. IKAR maintained its estimate at up to 1 million tons.

The harvesting campaign started in a number of Russian regions.

Russia last week announced its first official forecast of a new crop of at least 135 million metric tons, noting that 93% of winter crops are in normal condition. Last year’s harvest was 130 million tons.

SovEcon early last week raised its 2025 Russian wheat crop forecast by 1.8 million tons to 82.8 million tons due to good weather in southern regions such as Stavropol and Krasnodar, while noting that the situation in Rostov remains poor.

Last week, the Rostov region declared a state of emergency in ten districts due to drought conditions.

 

The global corn supply increases as Brazilian corn enters the market and weather conditions improve

2025/26 CORN MARKET OUTLOOK – JUNE 2025

Weather improvement in the Northern Hemisphere increases 2025/26 corn production prospects

Weather forecasts indicate a high risk of hot and dry weather conditions in the US, the southeastern region of the EU, and Ukraine during July and August.

Although production is up, lower beginning stocks and increased consumption suggest a tight world corn supply for 2025/26.

Recent US-China trade talks and their potential outcomes affect global corn trade for the 2025/26 season

EU and Ukraine are negotiating import quotas for agricultural products after the war-related tariff suspensions expired recently.

 

Global soy market attention remains focused on weather dynamics in North America

2025/26 SOYBEAN MARKET OUTLOOK – JUNE 2025

Soybean prices have been quietly gyrating in late May/early June amid competing market drivers. The U.S.-China trade meeting that took place in London last week has kept markets on edge, while better than expected early season North America weather continued to undermine initial concerns over crop progress and yield potential. The U.S. EPA’s recent proposal of higher biofuel blending requirements and early expectations on USDA’s June acreage revisions (scheduled to be released on 30 June) were also weighed in. The competing market drivers will likely continue to influence price movements as the calendar turns to July.

The near-term direction of the market will likely be underpinned by the overall soil moisture status and weather outlooks in the U.S. central Soy Belt, as the crop enters its prime growth period. The market reaction to the USDA’s June 30 acreage revisions should also make an impact if there is any notable changes.

The long-term direction of the market will likely continue to be dictated by the demand-side dynamics, mostly attributed to the U.S.-China trade relationships and any changes in their future tariff plans. The bleak North America summer weather prospects could remain a main theme until the harvest season comes around and South America sowing season preparations begin in Sep

 

Global wheat market outlook: steady supply supported by stocks as production levels off

2025/26 WHEAT MARKET OUTLOOK – JUNE 2025

LSEG Agriculture Research forecasts global wheat production for the 2025/26 season at 796.44 million metric tons, slightly below the 798 million metric tons estimated for 2024/25.

While production remains below projected global demand of 809.8 million metric tons, the shortfall is expected to be partially covered by beginning stocks. As a result, global wheat ending stocks are forecast to decline by 5.1% to 248.7 million metric tons, reflecting a gradual tightening in the global supply balance.

The latest LSEG summer forecasts (for June-August) uphold high risks of heat/dryness in the U.S. spring area and the Canadian Prairies. With lower certainty in the forecast, those risks could be also elevated in Southeast E.U., the Black Sea region and Southeast Australia. On the other side, the summer forecast is favorable for wheat in Western E.U. and China.

Global wheat prices were under pressure in June due to the upcoming harvesting campaign in the Northern Hemisphere. Improved crop conditions and favorable weather forecasts in the U.S., along with higher production estimates in Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, weighed on the prices.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices continue to drop in BR

Wheat prices continue to move down in the domestic market. The pressure comes from the devaluation of international quotations and the dollar, the progress of sowing activities in Brazil, and also from the low demand.

Many purchasers are well supplied, while others are prioritizing imported wheat. Producers, in turn, are focused on crop activities. In this context, liquidity remains low in the domestic market.

According to data from Cepea, between June 6 and 13, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 2.3% in Rio Grande do Sul, 2% in São Paulo, 1.14% in Santa Catarina and 0.6% in Paraná. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) remained almost stable in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná and upped 0.2% in Santa Catarina. The US dollar downed 0.45%, at BRL 5.537 on June 13.

CROPS – Conab says that the area in Brazil may reach 2.67 million hectares, downing 1% and 12.6%, respectively, compared to the previous report (May) and to the season before (2024). The production is likely to reach 8.192 million tons, 3.8% more than in 2024; the productivity may increase 18.9% in the same comparison, at 3.06 tons per hectare.

Conab also indicates that sowing activities reached 42% of the area up to June 7.

 

Ukraine Winter Grain Output Seen Below Five-Year Average: MARS

Persistent dryness across Ukraine expected to drive total winter crop production for the 2025-26 season below the five-year average, the European Union’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said Monday.

• Earlier stress periods and below-average sown areas means that overall production fell, despite favorable conditions in some regions and good weather in May
• “Yield forecasts for both winter and spring crops show considerable interregional variability, with most expectations hovering slightly below the five-year average at country level”
• Rapeseed production is expected to rise due to increased sown area
• Country is expected to see reduced grain maize and sunflowers production areas, against an expansion in soybean plantings

 

Ukraine grain traders press lawmakers to reject proposed rapeseed, soybean export duty

Ukraine’s grain traders union UGA has urged parliament to reject a proposal to impose a 10% duty on the country’s exports of rapeseed and soy beans as it could lead to lower sales and hurt farmers.

The proposed duty would not apply to farmers and agricultural cooperatives that export their own products.

Ukraine is a major European grower and exporter of oilseed, sending abroad most of its rapeseed crop and around a half of its soy bean output. Those exports are currently not taxed.

Ukrainian farm minister Vitaliy Koval told Reuters this month that the government planned to change its policy on agricultural exports to adapt to the expected end of free access to the lucrative EU market, potentially reducing raw material exports while stepping up domestic food processing.

Oilseed processors have proposed that the government should limit the export of oilseeds in order to increase domestic production of vegetable oil. That could boost exports of processed oils, which are more profitable than oilseeds.

“The UGA strongly opposes these initiatives, which could deal a devastating blow to the agricultural sector, one of the few sources of stable foreign exchange earnings during the war,” UGA said in a statement late on Monday.

Ukraine’s major farm producers’ union UAC said it had also opposed the proposal.

Koval however said Ukrainian oilseed processing plants were working at only about 65% of capacity and his ministry was “exploring all ways to utilize our Ukrainian processing plants in order to create additional value and processing products”.

A senior lawmaker has also proposed that duties be reduced by 1% per year from 2030 onwards to a level of 5%.

Senior pro-government lawmakers attached the oilseed export duty proposal to a draft law on patients’ access to medicines. It is unclear when lawmakers may vote on the bill.

 

Indonesia May Palm Oil Exports Rise 43.3% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose 43.3% m/m in May, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports rose to 1.983m tons from 1.384m tons in April
• Crude palm oil shipments rose to 200,061 tons from 46,501 tons in April
• RBD palm olein shipments rose to 818,077 tons from 544,449 tons in April
• RBD palm oil shipments rose to 359,757 tons from 273,729 tons in April
• Palm oil sales to European Union rose to 300,957 tons from 264,437 tons in April
• Palm oil sales to India rose to 586,611 tons from 243,141 tons in April
• Palm oil sales to China rose to 312,070 tons from 271,446 tons in April

 

France’s Winter-Barley, Rapeseed Production Seen Rising in 2025

France’s winter-barley harvest is seen rising 13.5% y/y to 7.8m tons on improved yields, the country’s agriculture ministry said in a Tuesday report.

• Still, that remains below the prior five-year average of 8m tons, partly due to lower plantings
• Winter-rapeseed harvest is expected to reach 4.2m tons, up 9.4% y/y on better yields
• PLANTINGS FOR 2025-26 SEASON:
  • Outlook for soft-wheat area seen at 4.59m hectares, slightly below a May estimate for 4.6m hectares
  • That’s still 8.9% higher y/y
  • Corn planting outlook kept steady at 1.48m hectares
  • Durum-wheat area also unchanged at 222k hectares, the lowest level since 1993

 

China Approval for Bunge’s Viterra Deal Comes With Demands

China confirmed its approval of Bunge Global SA’s takeover of rival Viterra, but outlined several conditions including the continued supply of key crops to the Asian nation at a “fair” price.

The green light from Beijing, announced by Bunge on Friday, was the last major hurdle to the conclusion of the $8.2 billion deal. Bunge shares rose as much as 4.4% in New York on Monday, extending Friday’s gain of 5.7%.

Still, a statement from China’s State Administration for Market Regulation outlined the large share of soybean, barley and rapeseed trade with one of the world’s top buyers that the combined company will control, which risks limiting competition.

Antitrust authorities asked that the company supply those crops to Chinese clients at what it called fair market prices and in a timely, reliable and sufficient manner. After the merger is finalized, it must also report its monthly sales to Chinese clients to the regulator each quarter, and provide comparison with the average from 2021 to 2024.

Bunge and Viterra committed to the conditions in a plan submitted to the Chinese regulator this month, SAMR said.

China has in the past used behavioral remedies to address China-specific concerns, sometimes to support industrial policies or strategic sectors, and occasionally simply to preserve competition in the market. Elsewhere, behavioral remedies are typically seen as difficult to design and monitor.

Bunge, which has its corporate headquarters in Missouri, is the B in the so-called ABCD quartet of storied agricultural commodity trading firms that dominate crop markets. The company announced it would buy Viterra in June 2023, in a deal expected to create a behemoth capable of competing with the industry’s biggest players including Cargill Inc.

Bunge had initially planned to close the deal by mid-2024, but the process dragged out as it awaited antitrust approvals. Trade tensions between the US and China contributed to some of the delay.

The company already received key approvals in the European Union and Canada, where there were concerns about the impact on competition. Argentina has yet to weigh in, but antitrust laws in the South American nation allow for the deal to be completed, with any remedial action potentially being required later.

 

India’s monsoon back on track, heatwave to ease, says weather officials

India’s monsoon has revived after stalling for more than a fortnight, and rains are set to cover central parts of the country this week, bringing relief from the heatwave in the grain-growing northern plains, two senior weather officials said on Monday.

The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country’s nearly $4 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs.

Nearly half of India’s farmland, which has no irrigation, depends on the annual June-September rains for crop growth.

The monsoon has revived after a fortnight as a favourable weather system has developed in the Bay of Bengal, which would help the monsoon to cover entire central India this week, an official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told Reuters.

Monsoon rains on Monday covered almost entire western state of Maharashtra and entered into neighbouring Gujarat and central state of Madhya Pradesh, the official said.

The Monsoon’s onset over Kerala occurred on May 24 and quickly covered southern, northeastern and some parts of western India ahead of its usual schedule, but its progress has stalled since May 29, according to an IMD chart that tracked the monsoon’s progress.

The monsoon has gained the required momentum, and heavy rainfall is likely over west coast, central and some parts of north India in next ten days, which will significantly bring down temperatures, another weather official said.

India has received 31% lower rainfall than average in the first half of June, but in the second half the country is set to receive above average rainfall, the official said.

Monsoon rains are set to progress quickly in the next few days and could cover most parts of the country before the end of June, the official said.

Summer rains usually fall in Kerala around June 1 before spreading nationwide by mid-July, allowing farmers to plant crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane.

 

China Seeks to Cut Breeding Sow Number to 39.5m Heads: Cailian

Relevant departments in China recently held a meeting to regulate pig production, Cailian reports, citing unnamed sources.

The meeting proposed specific pig production control targets, which would reduce the number of breeding sows in the country by about 1 million heads from the current level to 39.5 million heads

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.