Global Ag News For June 16.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Plans Biofuel Quota Boost, Seeks to Crimp Imports

The Trump administration is proposing oil refiners blend more biofuels into gasoline and diesel next year, while seeking to discourage the use of imported supplies.

The plan unveiled by the Environmental Protection Agency on Friday would require refiners to mix a record 24.02 billion gallons of biofuels into conventional diesel and gasoline — nearly 8% higher than the 2025 target.

The proposal comes as President Donald Trump seeks to revamp aspects of the Renewable Fuel Standard program created by Congress two decades ago to bolster domestic demand and support rural communities. Beyond merely laying out annual quotas, the agency’s blueprint advances changes meant to deter imports and spur more US biofuel production instead.

“We are creating a new system that benefits American farmers,” EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said in a release. “We can no longer afford to continue with the same system where Americans pay for foreign competitors.”

It’s the first major milestone for renewable fuel policy under Trump this year, helping shed light on how the president will approach an issue that proved especially controversial during his first term in office, when he struggled to balance demands from then oft-warring oil refiners and ethanol producers.

The proposed quotas boosted ethanol and soybean interests. Ethanol producer Green Plains Inc. jumped 20%, the most on a closing basis in five years, while Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. gained 4.7% and Bunge Global SA climbed 5.7%.

The proposal also lifted soybean oil futures in Chicago, which climbed as much as 6.2%. Renewable identification numbers, or RINs, tracking compliance with biomass-based diesel targets, gained 20% to $1.16, the biggest increase since last July. Credits tracking conventional ethanol climbed 18%.

The administration is so far dodging one of the thorniest issues — whether to grant some small refineries’ bids to be exempted from past years’ quotas and how to account for any waived volumes. The EPA said it was still determining how to address the matter but expected to make that clear before 2026 and 2027 quotas are finalized.

For biomass-based diesel typically made from soybeans and used cooking oil, the EPA is proposing a 2026 credit-based target it says would amount to 5.61 billion gallons, representing a 67% jump from the 3.35 billion gallons required this year. That’s broadly in line with what had been sought by a coalition of some large oil and biofuel interests, including the American Petroleum Institute and Clean Fuels Alliance America.

Those groups had also pushed for a higher overall biofuel-blending quota of 25 billion gallons in 2026. The proposed target falls under that level the next two years, with the EPA proposing an overall 2027 quota of 24.46 billion gallons.

The EPA plan was lauded by ethanol and biodiesel producers as well as lawmakers from soybean- and corn-heavy states, with Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican from Iowa, calling it a sign the “administration is committed to championing rural America.”

Integrated oil companies have increasingly linked arms with biofuel interests to champion the mandate, as more of them convert refineries to produce renewable diesel and generate the RINS used to show quotas have been fulfilled.

Yet the proposed quotas were decried by refiners that lack enough blending capacity to independently generate sufficient RINs and are uniquely exposed to higher credit costs. They had lobbied the agency for far more modest targets, warning aggressive quotas could outpace production, hiking the cost of compliance credits and putting domestic refining capacity in peril. The Fueling American Jobs Coalition that represents independent refiners and union workers called it “a gut punch.”

“These unrealistic mandates do not just threaten the future of independent refining; they endanger our existence today,” the group said by email. “EPA’s proposal would threaten many of America’s last remaining refineries, deepening our nation’s reliance on foreign fuel imports and sending consumer energy costs soaring. This stands in stark contrast to President Trump’s energy agenda.”

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans up 1 1/2; Soymeal down $2.60; Soyoil up 2.48.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 4 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 9 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans up 25 1/2; Soymeal down $7.60; Soyoil up 5.68.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 2 1/2 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans up 29 1/2; Soymeal down $8.10; Soyoil up 6.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.6% in SRW, down 4.4% in HRW, up 5.8% in HRS; Corn is down 4.0%; Soybeans up 7.2%; Soymeal down 6.1%; Soyoil up 34.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 28 yuan; Soymeal down 9; Soyoil up 156; Palm oil up 228; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 178.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 178 ringgit (+4.53%) at 4105.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 13 were: SRW Wheat down 10,592 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,046, Corn down 16,203, Soybeans up 12,121, Soymeal up 6,630, Soyoil up 6,898.

 

RETURNING WARMTH EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Widespread warm anomalies through the next two weeks
• Split precipitation pattern ahead

 

Northern Plains: Scattered thunderstorms produced some severe weather and areas of heavy rain over the weekend, including some of the driest areas of the region that needed some rain. Multiple impulses are forecast to move through the region through next week, a positive sign for those that need some rain and helping to maintain good soil moisture for those that do not.

Central/Southern Plains: More areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms moved through much of the region over the weekend, but missed eastern eastern Nebraska and Kansas, which have been drier and could use some rain. Otherwise, the recent run of active weather has continued to pour a bunch of water throughout much of the region, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but will start to hinder the wheat harvest if it continues. Multiple disturbances moving through this week and next will keep chances going, but should become more isolated with time, which would be favorable for wheat, but not the drier areas in the region for corn and soybean development.

Midwest: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, but continue to miss key areas from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois, which has been a drier patch so far this season. However, multiple disturbances moving through the region this week and next should provide plenty of opportunity for rainfall. Though with these coming by way of clusters of thunderstorms, some areas are bound to be missed. Areas across the south could use a break as another week of wet weather bogs down fieldwork and remaining planting. A little burst of heat this weekend into early next week could help some areas dry out that miss out on the rainfall.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Dry weather continues to be hard to find as rain falls with systems and fronts stalling out in the region this past weekend continue this week and probably next as well. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations and remaining planting. Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases.

Canadian Prairies: A couple of disturbances have brought scattered showers and thunderstorms through the region over the weekend, but favored the west while the east stayed drier. Northern areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are in need of some rain and they will have some opportunity this week. Multiple disturbances and fronts will pass through the region this week with scattered showers and a bigger system will be possible this weekend into early next week with more widespread rainfall. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

Brazil: Southern areas of the country saw scattered showers over the weekend, which included southern safrinha corn areas. Those areas are maturing and do not need the rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest. However, the rainfall is favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stuck front and couple of systems should continue to produce rainfall this week, but more for the wheat areas than the corn, which would be favorable for both.

Argentina: Scattered showers moved through the northern half of the country over the weekend, including some areas that were flooded back in May, but also across drier areas in the central and north that could use the rain for winter wheat establishment. A front stalled across the north will continue to produce rainfall this week, which could delay some of the northern harvest, but would continue to build soil moisture for any winter wheat.

Europe: Scattered showers moved through some western countries over the weekend, including some drier areas in France, Germany, and the UK. It is a bit late for winter wheat, but favorable for any spring-sown crops. Hotter and drier conditions this week will be favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent.

Black Sea: Isolated to scattered showers moved back into the region over the weekend, including the very dry areas in the south and east, but were mostly spotty and light. Those showers continue most of this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain in some areas and will need much more. Colder temperatures will move through later this week and weekend and could help to reduce the stress.

Australia: Spotty showers have moved through over the last week, but many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. More periods of limited showers will move through to close out the month of June, but favor the west over the driest areas in the south.

China: Scattered showers went through over the weekend, but favored the corn and soybean areas in the northeast over the winter wheat and canola areas on the North China Plain. With harvest underway and increasing throughout the month, drier weather is now preferred there, though double-cropped corn and soybeans will need more moisture in these areas. A system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall midweek which would be beneficial for building some soil moisture while also keeping temperatures from getting too stressful.

 

The player sheet for 6/13 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 3,000 corn, buyers of 22,000 soybeans, sellers of 7,500 soymeal, and buyers of 22,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOFT WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soft wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Friday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 95,450 tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

CROP SURVEY: US May Soybean Crush Seen at 193.8M Bushels

Projections are based on a survey of up to nine analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on June 12-13.

• Soybean crush seen 5.5% higher vs May of last year, and an increase of 1.9% vs a month ago
• Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.495b lbs vs 1.724b a year earlier
• The National Oilseed Processors Association is scheduled to release its monthly report on June 16.

 

Brazil harvest 5.57% of 2025 second corn area vs 13.94% last year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 5.57% OF 2025 SECOND CORN AREA VERSUS 13.94% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

CORN/CEPEA: Weather favors production; prices continue to drop

Good weather conditions during the development of the second corn crop in Brazil reinforce expectations of high production in 2024/25. This week, Conab adjusted positively estimates for the harvesting. As a result, corn quotations continue to move down.

Conab released a report on June 12 indicating that the 2024/25 output in Brazil is likely to total 128.25 million tons, 1.37 million tons more than the projection released in May. The increase is related to the higher production in the second crop, which is likely to register good productivity because of the good weather.

As for the second crop, the production is forecast at 101 million tons, more than the 99.8 million tons estimated in May, 12% above the crop before and the second biggest of Conab series. The first crop may amount 24.82 million tons, upping 8% in relation to the previous. The third crop, in turn, may decrease 2.4%, projected at 2.42 million tons.

The USDA released a report this week indicating that the 2025/26 production in Brazil and in Argentina may amount 131 and 53 million tons, respectively. In the US, the output is likely to reach the record of 401.84 million tons. The global production is estimated by the USDA at 1.26 billion tons, stable compared to the report released in May.

In this scenario of possible high production, prices remain moving down. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from June 5-12, corn values decreased 2.3% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.8% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 1.9% between June 5 and 12, closing at BRL 67.64 per 60-kilo bag on June 12.

CROPS – The second crop harvesting reached 2% of the total in Brazil up to June 7, still below the 4% of the average over the last five years – data from Conab.

The summer crop harvesting, in turn, was at 90.6% of the area up to June 7, more than the average over the last five years, of 88% – data from Conab.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Soybean prices are firm, but values of byproducts drop

Despite the high supply, soybean prices are firm in the domestic market, sustained by the good demand from abroad. Values for soybean meal and oil, on the other hand, are decreasing. This scenario has reduced the margin of the crushing industry.

Concerning soy oil, prices are moving down because of the low demand, especially from the biodiesel sector. Earlier this year, the crushing industry was waiting for a demand increase, based on the possible adjustment in the blend of biodiesel into diesel oil, from 14% to 15%. However, the blend continued at 14%, discouraging soy oil trades.

The Brazilian value of soy oil dropped 0.7% between June 5 and 12, at BRL 6.275.08 per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on June 12. Concerning soybean meal, on the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices moved down 0.9%% in the last seven days.

Due to the low demand for soy byproducts, Conab reduced the crushing estimate in Brazil by 1.6% compared to the previous report. Still, processing activities may reach the record of 56.15 million tons this season.

Soy oil trades are projected by Conab at 9.69 million tons, 2.7% less than that released in the previous report. Exports, in turn, may total 1.4 million tons (soy oil) and 23.6 million tons (soy meal).

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 0.2% from June 5-12, closing at BRL 134.26 per 60-kg bag on June 12. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 0.6% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 128.80 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) were stable and upped 0.2% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same comparison.

 

Analyst APK-Inform cuts Ukraine 2025 sunseed, sunoil harvest, export outlook

Ukrainian analyst APK-Inform revised down its 2025 sunflower seed harvest forecast for Ukraine to 14.7 million metric tons from a previous estimate of 15.2 million tons, mostly due to unfavourable weather, it said on Saturday.

It also cut its Ukrainian 2025/25 sunflower oil output forecast to 6.36 million tons from 6.55 million tons and 2025/26 season’s exports to 6.01 million tons from 6.23 million tons.

 

Corn, Rice Crops Across Parts of China Threatened by Heavy Rain

Heavy rainfall forecast for some of China’s key agricultural regions could threaten the growth of crops from corn and soybeans to rice, according to an advisory from the National Meteorological Center.

• High precipitation could flood some low lying fields in the northeast where crops are in the growing and maturing stage
• Some areas in the south are also bracing for heavy and prolonged rainfall, which could hamper the growth of rice and corn
• Downpours from tropical storm Wutip disrupted harvesting of fruits and vegetables, and early rice growth in some southern provinces last week
• However, precipitation forecast for northern China could provide relief to parched land and favor corn planting

 

US Beef Production Falls 4.2% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 485m pounds for the week ending June 14 from 506m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 4.1% from a week ago to 558m head
• Pork production up 1.4% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 1.4%
• For the year, beef production is 2.9% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 1.7% below

 

Bunge’s $34 billion Viterra merger clears final China hurdle

• Bunge to close $34 billion Viterra merger around July 2
• China’s approval was final regulatory hurdle for Bunge-Viterra deal
• Deal creates agribusiness giant, rivals ADM and Cargill
• Bunge shares jump 5.7%

Global agribusiness Bunge Global SA said Friday it has received regulatory approval from China for its merger with Glencore-backed grain handler Viterra, the final hurdle for its $34 billion mega-deal announced two years ago.

The Missouri-based company expects to close the largest-ever global agriculture merger by dollar value “on or around July 2,” Bunge said in an emailed statement.

Bunge shares were up 5.7% by mid afternoon on Friday, extending earlier gains stemming from surging crude oil prices and favorable U.S. biofuel blending proposals from the Environmental Protection Agency on Friday.

Approval from China was the last regulatory approval Bunge needed to finalize the deal after gaining conditional approvals from regulators in Canada, the European Union and other markets in recent months.

“Achieving this regulatory milestone is a significant step forward and clears the way for closing of the transaction. This approval underscores the strategic rationale behind bringing Bunge and Viterra together to create a premier global agribusiness company,” CEO Greg Heckman said in an emailed statement.

The deal will create a global crop trading and processing giant closer in scale to chief rivals Archer-Daniels-Midland ADM.N and Cargill, although it had sparked competition concerns and heightened regulatory scrutiny that delayed closing of the transaction for nearly a year.

“We will see further consolidation in the grain merchandising and processing industry. Given greater price transparency for both farmers and the agribusiness’s customers, I don’t see a huge change in competitive dynamics over the long term,” said Seth Goldstein, equity strategist with Morningstar Research Services LLC.

The merger will enhance Bunge’s grain exporting and oilseed processing businesses in the U.S., where it has a smaller presence than ADM and Cargill.

The deal also expands Bunge’s export capacity and physical grain storage and handling footprint in major global wheat suppliers Canada and Australia.

Bunge and its agribusiness rivals have seen earnings erode in recent quarters on slumping demand and a global glut of crops that they trade, store and process into food, livestock feed and biofuel feedstocks. Tariff and biofuel policy uncertainty further weighed on profits for Bunge, the world’s largest oilseed crusher.

 

China Conditionally Approves Bunge’s Viterra Deal

China has conditionally approved Bunge Global’s takeover of Viterra, the State Administration for Market Regulation says on its website.

• Bunge needs to maintain timely and stable supply of soybeans, barley and rapeseed to Chinese clients, and isn’t allowed to impose any unreasonable business conditions on them
• After the takeover is completed, quarterly reports need to be submitted to the Chinese authorities listing sales to Chinese customers

 

 

 

 

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