Global Ag News For June 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Tariffs Will Hurt Indonesia’s Palm Oil Exports to US, Gapki Says

Reciprocal tariffs of 32% announced by the Donald Trump administration will impact Indonesian palm oil shipments to the US, as the move undermines the country’s competitiveness in the global market, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki.

• “Although we are pursuing diplomatic engagements, the economic strain is undeniable,” Chairperson Eddy Martono said at an industry conference in Jakarta on Tuesday
• Global geopolitical instability is also casting a shadow on demand for the tropical commodity, he said
  • Ongoing US-China trade tensions continue to create uncertainty, shifting trade flows and influencing global commodity prices
  • The conflict in the Middle East is pushing up oil prices and disrupting key shipping lanes, raising transportation and energy costs for Indonesia
  • India-Pakistan tensions could also potentially disrupt vital trade corridors
• Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate is set to reach B40 in 2025 and B50 in 2026, which is expected to boost domestic palm oil demand to 26.1 million tons this year, further tightening export availability
  • NOTE: B40 refers to blending of 40% biofuel with diesel

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil up 0.17.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 16 3/4 in SRW, down 14 1/4 in HRW, down 15 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans up 2; Soymeal down $0.80; Soyoil up 0.04.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 4 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, down 5 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 11 3/4; Soybeans up 17; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 0.51.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.4% in SRW, down 4.3% in HRW, up 4.1% in HRS; Corn is down 5.9%; Soybeans up 6.1%; Soymeal down 4.1%; Soyoil up 19.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 40 yuan; Soymeal up 8; Soyoil up 4; Palm oil up 6; Corn up 21 — Malaysian Palm is down 61.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 61 ringgit (-1.55%) at 3864.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 9 were: SRW Wheat down 9,689 contracts, HRW Wheat down 903, Corn down 3,980, Soybeans down 16,202, Soymeal down 1,455, Soyoil up 519.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Rains across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. will continue throughout the next 10 days, raising concerns about excessive moisture
• SOUTH AMERICA: Increasingly wet conditions in southern Brazil may delay second-crop harvesting in mid-June
• SOUTH ASIA: Heavy rainfall between 50-200 mm above normal is expected in central and southwestern India, posing the risk of further flooding along the southwest coast
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Moderate weather conditions across most of Indonesia and Malaysia will support palm oil production over the next 2 weeks
• TROPICS: The probability of Tropical Cyclone development near Southeast China has increased, with potential impacts expected during the 4-10 day timeframe

 

Northern Plains: More widespread showers may try to tag South Dakota into northern Nebraska during the middle of the week with a second round of widespread rain showers moving through later Thursday into Friday. The second round could benefit some of the drier soils in the western Dakotas. Recent isolated coverage of showers has only led to minor improvements in drought conditions.

Central/Southern Plains: Upper-air troughing will keep the pattern active across Oklahoma and Texas this week with daily chances for showers and storms, some of which could be severe. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain but it’s expected to remain spotty this week.

Midwest: A slow-moving front will provide some areas of heavier rainfall to the northwest Corn Belt Wednesday into Thursday with another system moving through on Friday. Precipitation is expected to linger in the Eastern Midwest this weekend. Southern areas of the Midwest may get more of a break this week with the storm track nudging north, allowing for soils to dry out for fieldwork.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Wet conditions continue across the Delta this week with a stalled front lingering in the area. Periods of heavy rain and severe storms are possible with the front but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into the upcoming weekend as well. While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of America and impacting the Delta looks minimal over the next week.

Canadian Prairies: Precipitation early this week will favor northern and eastern areas. Southern areas will see more disturbances push through during the second half of the week and into the weekend, benefiting early growth. However, more rain is still needed to make up the deficits in subsoil moisture and also help reduce wildfire threats.

Brazil: During the middle of the week, a drier stretch is expected before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas. The potential for heavy rain threatens the harvest pace but wheat could use more rain for establishment.

Argentina: High pressure will keep conditions dry through much of the week, allowing for corn and soybean harvest to continue without precipitation disruptions. As winter wheat continues to be planted, it could use more rain, which may come by the end of the week. A storm system will form across northern Argentina Friday and continue through Saturday, providing some areas of heavy rain. While the late-week rain will be beneficial for planted wheat, it will likely slow down corn and soybean harvest for a few days.

Europe: Showers will favor northern and western areas through the first half of the week. A front will move through eastern Europe Thursday, providing spotty showers. Southern areas of Europe will remain relatively dry this week but maturing wheat should be stable given the recent rainfall. More precipitation would be beneficial next week for the wheat, but this could be spotty.

Black Sea: Rainfall will favor northwest areas through the first half of the week before the south and east could get in on the action by Thursday. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain looks to stick in northwest Russia this week with a slow-moving storm system.

China:  Wheat harvest will begin across the North China Plain this week and scattered showers are expected Monday before returning again late this week. Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough into next week. Some of the heaviest rain will favor southeast China going into early next week.

 

MIXED WEATHER IN THE PAMPAS, HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

What to Watch:

• Mixed weather in the Pampas
• Wet spells in South, southern Center West and far North Brazil

 

The player sheet for 6/9 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 14,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, buyers of 500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on late last week without issuing an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• CRON TENDER: South Korea’s Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• CORN TENDER: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 138,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• CORN, SOYMEAL, BARLEY TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has received offers to supply up to 120,000 metric tons each of corn, barley and soymeal after it had issued international tenders
• RICE TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 8,000 metric tons of long grain white rice sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is holding a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins for shipment during July 1-15.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.657m Tons of Corn for Export, 547k of Soybeans

In week ending June 5, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 547k tons vs 301k the previous wk, 234k a yr ago
• Wheat: 291k tons vs 553k the previous wk, 353k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,657k tons vs 1,642k the previous wk, 1,341k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: June 5

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending June 5 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 104k tons of the 547k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest at 1.9% as of June 5: AgRural

That’s the lowest level for this time of the year since 2021, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report.

• Compares with 10% a year before
• Late planting in some areas of Brazil’s Center-South region, like in Mato Grosso state, and high humidity are slowing down the harvest

 

Brazil’s second corn harvest at slowest pace since 2021, AgRural says

Brazil’s key center-south region had harvested 1.9% of its 2025 second corn crop as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, the lowest level for this time of year since 2021.

Work in the fields advanced only 0.6 percentage points from the previous week and was well below the 10% reported a year earlier, as excessive moisture has hindered reaping efforts, AgRural said.

Brazil’s second corn crop, which represents about 75% of national production in a given year, is planted after soybeans are harvested on the same fields.

“The slow pace was already expected due to late planting in part of the producing areas, especially Mato Grosso,” the consultancy said in a statement, referring to Brazil’s top grain-producing state.

 

SovEcon Boosts 2025 Russian Wheat-Output Forecast to 82.8m Tons

SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s wheat production in the 2025-26 season by 1.8m tons to 82.8m tons amid good weather in southern regions such as Stavropol and Krasnodar, it said in a note.

• First wheat output estimate for the Southern Federal District stands at 31.6m tons, down 1m tons y/year
• “However, conditions in Rostov — Russia’s top wheat-producing region — remain poor:” SovEcon CEO Andrey Sizov
• Total wheat production area is seen slightly lower at 27.8m hectares in 2025, reflecting a reduction in spring wheat area

 

Russia Sees 2025 Grain Harvest at Least 135M Tons: IFX

Russia sees grain harvest in 2025 increasing to at least 135m tons, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev says, according to Interfax.

• 93% of winter crops are in good condition
• 2024 grain harvest was 125.9m tons, Interfax cites Rosstat data

 

Palm Oil Stockpiles in Malaysia Climb to Eight-Month High in May

Palm oil inventories in Malaysia rose for a third month as production in the world’s second-biggest grower kept climbing, although a surge in exports capped the rise. Futures fell.

Stockpiles in May rose 6.7% from a month earlier to 1.99 million tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported on Tuesday. That’s slightly lower than a Bloomberg survey of 2.01 million tons, but still the highest level in eight months.

Production rose 5.1% to 1.77 million tons, according to the MPOB report. That follows a 22% surge in April, and compares to an estimated gain of 3%. Exports jumped 26% to 1.39 million tons, above the forecast 18% increase.

Although rising supplies could further pressure palm oil prices, losses my be limited as investors pin their hopes on a recovery in export demand, especially from top buyer India after it recently cut its import levies on vegetable oils.

The report is neutral to slightly supportive as end-stocks came in below market expectations, mainly due to strong exports, said Chandran Sinnasamy, a broker at CGS International Futures in Kuala Lumpur. “Demand for India will grow from now due to the country’s import-duty reduction, which is supportive to palm futures,” he said.

 

 

 

 

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