Global Ag News for July 9th

TODAY —- EXPORT SALES, COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, up 1 3/4 in HRW, up 5 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans up 4 3/4; Soymeal down $0.22; Soyoil up 0.87.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 36 1/4 in SRW, down 29 1/2 in HRW, down 28 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 57 3/4; Soybeans down 74 3/4; Soymeal down $2.78; Soyoil down 2.30.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 63 in SRW, down 69 1/4 in HRW, down 39 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 66 1/2; Soybeans down 74 3/4; Soymeal down $21.40; Soyoil down 2.71.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 45 yuan ; Soymeal up 17; Soyoil up 68; Palm oil up 100; Corn down 3 — Malasyian Palm is up 116. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 116 ringgit (+3.08%) at 3885 rebounding from three days of losses, as a weaker ringgit raised the appeal of the tropical oil in Malaysia while prices for the commodity traded in China headed for a third weekly advance.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday, south Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday. East: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers southwest Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 7/8 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 4,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 8 were: SRW Wheat down 1,248 contracts, HRW Wheat down 624, Corn down 10,888, Soybeans down 1,662, Soymeal down 1,865, Soyoil down 6,151.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 407 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 122,200 tonnes of U.S. soymeal to Mexico for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 108,175 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s main wheat-buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), on Thursday issued an international tender to purchase about 360,000 tonnes of wheat, it said in confirmation of earlier trade reports. The tender deadline is Friday July 9, SAGO said. Traders said results are expected on Monday July 12.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase up to 200,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat and milling wheat

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 23, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on July 14.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending July 1.

• Corn est. range 50k – 800k tons, with avg of 345k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 775k tons, with avg of 450k

DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.0% to 21.149M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 21.687 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.067m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.055m

U.S. Corn Crops in Drought Area Remain at 38%: USDA

The following table shows the percent of U.S. agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 6, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• Corn crop area experiencing moderate to intense drought unchanged from the previous week
• Soybean area unchanged at 33%
• Spring wheat area in drought rose to 98% vs 93%

Argentina Dry River to Cost Crop Exporters $315m: Rosario

The Parana River’s shallowness will increase logistics costs for traders by an estimated $315m between March and August, the Rosario Board of Trade says in a report.

• The river’s condition is reducing crop prices in Argentina
• FOB soy meal for August is $17 lower than in Brazil, when the average in recent years has been $2 higher than its neighbor
• FOB soy oil for August is $58 lower than in Brazil, when the average in recent years has been for Argentine oil to be $4 lower

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 8:

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2020-21 corn production estimate unchanged from last week
• Corn harvest 56% complete vs 51%
• The following table compares most current data to previous week and last year’s crop:

China Set to Hit Pause Button on U.S. Corn Buying on Weak Market

• Country will have new crop corn available in September
• Domestic futures have dropped to lowest level this year

China is likely to take a break from buying large amounts of U.S. corn after record purchases this year because the domestic harvest is approaching and local prices have slumped to the cheapest since late 2020.

The world’s largest importer has already bought more than 10.5 million tons of U.S. corn for the 2021-22 marketing year, and over 23 million tons for the current season, U.S. Department of Agriculture data show. Total imports next year will likely be 20 million tons, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, while the USDA’s official forecast for this year is 26 million tons.

China Sells Just 7% of U.S. Corn Offered From Reserves on Friday

China’s state grains stockpiler Sinograin sold only 8,337 tons out of 123,954 tons of genetically-modified U.S. corn offered at auction on Friday, co. said in a statement.

• The grain was sold at prices as high as 2,705 yuan ($417)/ton, according to trading platform www.liangdawang.com
• Imported corn has no quality or price advantages over domestic corn, the industry portal said
• Sinograin also sold 2,500 tons, or 39%, of 6,340 tons of non-GMO Ukrainian corn offered on Friday
• The grain was sold at 2,750 yuan/ton: Liangdawang
• On July 2, Sinograin Sold 18% of U.S. Corn Offered From State Reserves

Western Australia Set for Record Output in Grain Growing Season

Western Australia is set for record grain production in the 2021 growing season as farmers have expanded the acreage and plentiful seasonal rains boosted growing conditions, according the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia.

Heat Stress and Dry Soil Damage Many Crops in Saskatchewan

A prolonged lack of moisture and hot temperatures over the past week caused significant damage to many crops, Saskatchewan government said Thursday.

• Crops are stunted, thin, turning yellow and prematurely drying down in many parts of the province, weekly crop report says
• 27% of fall cereals are in “dough maturity” stage and 40% of spring cereals in heading stage
• Crop damage is due to extremely dry soil, hot temperatures, strong winds, and gopher and grasshopper feeding
• Topsoil moisture levels deteriorated further due to extended period of hot, dry and windy weather
• Hay operations continue despite lack of growth, with 6% of rated excellent quality, 50% good, 32% fair, 12% poor

Britain wheat area expands on improved sowing conditions

Britain’s wheat area is expected to expand to 1.74 million hectares for this year’s harvest, up 26% from 2020, according to a survey issued by the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) on Thursday.

The increase was largely at the expense of spring barley, which was expected to be 28% lower at 769,000 hectares.

The AHDB noted the sowing conditions were more favourable this season during the key autumn planting window for wheat. The previous season’s adverse weather forced many farmers to switch to spring-sown crops, of which barley is the most important.

Winter barley area was seen 15% higher, year-on-year, at 350,000 hectares. Rapeseed area was forecast at 322,000 hectares, down 15% year-on-year.

Flea beetles have posed a growing threat to British rapeseed in recent years as a result of restrictions imposed on the use of insecticides known as neonicotinoids to protect bees.

French Wheat Ratings Steady, Harvest Trails Last Year: AgriMer

The amount of France’s soft-wheat crop rated in good or very good condition held at 79% in the week to July 5, unchanged from the prior week, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

France’s Rouen Grain Exports Quadruple in Week to July 7: Port

Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 88,718 tons in the week to July 7, compared with 19,200 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.

French Soft-Wheat Yields Seen 8% Above Last Year: Arvalis

The average yield of this year’s French soft-wheat crop is estimated at 7.4 tons per hectare, 8% above 2020 and 4% above the average of the last 10 years, according to a statement Friday from crop institute Arvalis and grain industry group Intercereales.

Rains Expected Across India as Monsoon Set to Revive After Pause

Scattered to widespread rain likely over northwestern parts of India as the monsoon starts progressing from Saturday after stalling for about three weeks, according to the India Meteorological Department.