Global Ag News for July 8th
TODAY —- WEEKLY ETHANOL
Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal up $0.16; Soyoil down 0.71.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 27 3/4 in SRW, down 26 1/4 in HRW, down 23 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 43 1/2; Soybeans down 66; Soymeal down $2.33; Soyoil down 2.58.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 55 in SRW, down 68 1/2 in HRW, down 36 in HRS; Corn is down 55; Soybeans down 71 3/4; Soymeal down $15.20; Soyoil down 3.78.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 20 yuan ; Soymeal down 5; Soyoil down 2; Palm oil down 44; Corn down 13 — Malasyian Palm is down 24. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 24 ringgit (-0.63%) at 3771 fluctuating between gains and losses, with investors weighing prospects for weaker demand with the impact of coronavirus-related restrictions on production in second-largest grower Malaysia.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers south Wednesday and Saturday-Sunday, scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below to near normal through Sunday. East: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to near normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below to near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.
The player sheet for 7/7 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 7,000 corn, sellers of 11,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 7 were: SRW Wheat up 1,371 contracts, HRW Wheat up 627, Corn down 7,025, Soybeans down 7,637, Soymeal down 3,190, Soyoil up 677.
There were changes in registrations (-1 Oats). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 407 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.
- FEED WHEAT SALE: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased about 65,000 tonnes of optional-origin animal feed wheat in a tender for up to 230,700 tonnes which closed on Wednesday
- FEED WHEAT SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a private deal late on Tuesday without issuing an international tender,
- FEED WHEAT, BARLEY TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said on Wednesday that it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Oct. 31 and arrive in Japan by Dec. 23, via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that will be held on July 14.
- FAILED CORN, FEED WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s largest animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) on Wednesday made no purchase in an international tender to buy up to 138,000 tonnes of corn but bought 65,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Japan Purchases 108,175 Tons of Milling Wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s main wheat-buying agency, the Saudi Grains Organization (SAGO), on Thursday issued an international tender to purchase about 360,000 tonnes of wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 108,175 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
- WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
- WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
- WHEAT & FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase up to 200,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat and milling whea
FAO Raises Outlook for World Grain Stockpiles in 2021-22 Season
World grain stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now seen at 836m tons, about 24m tons above the prior estimate, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday in a report.
- That would put inventory 2.4% higher y/y, the first gain since the 2017-18 season
- Much of the increase is driven by higher corn stocks expected in China, which are now seen reaching 152m tons
- That’s 24m tons above the prior forecast and 3m tons above the prior season, marking China’s first annual increase in six years
- China’s corn use in animal feed expected to drop on much greater use of other feedstuffs
- Outlook for wheat inventories is lowered to 297m tons, although that remains at an all-time high for the crop
- Estimate for global wheat production cut to 784.7m tons, 1m tons below prior estimate
- Global grain stock-to-use ratio in 2021-22 seen hovering near 29%, steady with 2020-21 level
Brazil 2021 soy exports estimated at record of 86.7 mln T – Abiove
BRAZIL 2021 SOYBEAN EXPORTS ESTIMATED AT A RECORD OF 86.7 MILLION TNS VERSUS 85.7 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN JUNE – OILSEEDS LOBBY ABIOVE
- ABIOVE CUTS BRAZIL’S 2021 SOYBEAN END-STOCK FORECAST BY 1 MILLION TNS TO 4.16 MILLION TNS AS EXPORTS SEEN STRONG
- ABIOVE KEEPS 2021 SOYBEAN DOMESTIC PROCESSING PROJECTION AT 46.5 MILLION TNS
- DOMESTIC PROCESSING COULD FALL BY 800,000 TNS IF BRAZIL FAILS TO RESUME MIXING 13% OF BIODIESEL INTO DIESEL EFFECTIVE SEPTEMBER – ABIOVE
- ABIOVE SAYS RECESSION CAUSED BIODIESEL PRICE TO FALL, JUSTIFYING INCREASE IN MANDATORY BIODIESEL MIX
- KEEPING BIODIESEL MIX AT 10% COULD DISCOURAGE BRAZIL FARMERS TO PLANT SOYBEAN NEXT SEASON – ABIOVE
Indian Palm Oil Imports in July Seen Climbing 9% on Duty Cut
India’s palm oil imports may increase about 9% in July from a month earlier, helped by the government’s move to cut duties on foreign purchases and remove restrictions on refined varieties, according to G.G. Patel, managing partner of GGN Research.
- Still, lower local prices compared with overseas levels are discouraging strong imports: Patel
- Inbound shipments may rise to 650,000 tons this month from an estimated 595,000 tons in June, the lowest since March
- Purchases in August seen at 700,000 tons: Patel
- Soybean oil imports are likely to be 300,000 tons each in July and August, compared with 225,000 tons estimated for June
- Sunflower oil purchases are seen at 120,000-150,000 tons each this month and next, against 174,000 tons in June
Chinese Corn Prices Near Cheapest This Year on Weakening Demand
Corn futures in Dalian are trading around the lowest levels this year on expectations that demand for the grain in animal feed will decline because of increased use of alternatives such as wheat and rice, and as loss-making hog farmers curb the expansion of herds on slumping prices.
Futures have dropped more than 12% from their record in January. China’s top agriculture think-tank has cut its estimate for total corn demand in 2020-21 by 3 million tons to 278 million tons and by 5 million tons for next year. While the researcher kept import predictions unchanged, the decrease in local demand strengthens speculation that foreign purchases may have peaked.
Global Food Costs End Year-Long Surge, Easing Inflation Pressure
Global food prices retreated for the first time in a year, potentially offering some relief for consumers and easing inflationary pressures.
- A United Nations gauge of food costs fell 2.5% in June, easing from a nine-year high and marking the first decline since May 2020. Prices of vegetable oils and cereals declined during the month, offsetting gains in meat and sugar.
- Prices of grains to meat to vegetable oils — ingredients that feed through to countless items in grocery stores — rallied this year on big Chinese imports, the reopening of economies and weather risks to crops. Last month’s decline could reduce inflation risks, both for central banks facing pressure to tighten stimulus measures as well as poorer nations that are highly dependent on imports to feed their populations.
- There may be more relief in store for consumers in the medium to long term. A recent outlook from the UN and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast slowing demand and rising output to temper food prices in the coming years.
- Still, the UN gauge remains historically high, and crop prices are hinging on the weather in the months ahead to determine whether harvests across Europe and North America will be large enough to replenish strained stockpiles.
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