Global Ag News for July 30

TODAY – COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/4; Soybeans down 7; Soymeal up $0.09; Soyoil down 0.91.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 3/4 in SRW, up 26 3/4 in HRW, up 28 in HRS; Corn is up 11; Soybeans up 24 3/4; Soymeal up $0.46; Soyoil up 1.14.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 26 in SRW, up 15 1/2 in HRW, up 65 in HRS; Corn is down 35 1/4; Soybeans down 28 1/4; Soymeal down $21.40; Soyoil up 1.04.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 29 yuan ; Soymeal up 40; Soyoil down 16; Palm oil up 80; Corn up 6 — Malasyian Palm is down 39. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 39 ringgit (-0.88%) at 4388 heading for a sixth week of gains amid mounting concern about lower production in Malaysia, the second-biggest grower, and the effect of dry weather on soybean crops.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south Thursday. Heavy rain south Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday. East: Scattered showers Thursday, southwest Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

The player sheet for 7/29 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 6,000 corn, buyers of 7,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 29 were: SRW Wheat up 3,796 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,506, Corn up 3,374, Soybeans down 4,247, Soymeal down 2,567, Soyoil up 190.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
• WHEAT SALE: A government agency in Pakistan is believed to have bought about 220,000 tonnes of wheat in an international tender for up to 500,000 tonnes which closed this week.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• WHEAT BARLEY, TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 515,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

 CROP TOUR: North Dakota Spring Wheat Yield Est. at 29.1 Bu/Acre

North Dakota hard red spring wheat yield est. at 29.1 bu/acre, according to final assessment of Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour.

• That’s slightly above USDA’s est. for the top U.S. producing state of 28 bu/acre
  • NOTE: Yield was 49 bu/acre last year
• Crop tour’s durum yield est. is 24.3 bu/acre, ahead of USDA projection of 22 bu/acre
  • NOTE: Yield was 39 bu/acre last year
• Crop tour spring wheat est. based on studying 257 fields over three days; durum based on 15 fields

U.S. Sold 234K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 414K of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending July 22.

• Corn sales rose to 414k tons vs -41k in previous week
• All wheat sales rose to 510k tons vs 478k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 234k tons vs 238k in previous week

U.S. Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat

• Mexico bought 166k tons of the 414k tons of corn sold in the week
• Mexico was also the top buyer of soybeans and China led in wheat

U.S. Export Sales of Pork and Beef  

• Mexico bought 25.1k tons of the 38.9k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 32% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending July 24 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 35% from the previous week
• Barge shipments of wheat rose 14% from the previous week

U.S. Corn Crops in Drought Area Unchanged at 36%: USDA

• Approximately 36% of U.S. corn crops are within an area experiencing moderate to intense drought, unchanged for the last three weeks
• Spring wheat area in drought remained at 99%

Planalytics Lowers U.S. Spring Wheat Forecast to 34.60 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is down from previous forecast of 37.80 bu/acre, and has fallen for a fourth consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • North Dakota 32.40 vs 36.20
  • Minnesota 44.00 vs 50.00
  • Montana 26.50 vs 27.70

Planalytics Raises U.S. Corn Forecast to 175.30 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is up from previous forecast of 175.10 bu/acre, and has risen for a fourth consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • Iowa 194.10 vs 193.90
  • Illinois 197.30 vs 196.80
  • Indiana 185.90 vs 185.00

Planalytics Lowers U.S. Soybean Forecast to 50.00 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is down from previous forecast of 50.10 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • Iowa 56.60 vs 56.60
  • Illinois 59.60 vs 59.40
  • Indiana 57.00 vs 56.80

China Sees Small Loss to Livestock and Crops After Recent Floods

China’s hog production has recovered to normal levels and recent floods in the major producing region of Henan will have a limited impact on overall supply and prices, said Yang Zhenhai, head of the animal husbandry bureau at China’s agriculture ministry.

• Floods have killed 248,000 hogs and 6.4 million chickens in provinces including Henan, where losses were the greatest
  • That’s a low number compared with China’s total hog inventory of 439m: Yang
• Hog production has almost recovered to levels seen at the end of 2017 before the African swine fever outbreak
  • Number of breeding sows +102% from end of 2017
  • Recovery of hog production has caused prices to slump by about 50% this year
• Pork prices have remained stable after the floods while prices for poultry, eggs, beef and mutton have risen slightly
• Ministry and local governments are taking measures to disinfect damaged farms to avoid the spread of animal diseases
  • About 3.6m carcasses have been retrieved and treated
• Damage to crops from bad weather, including corn and rice, will be less severe than last year, said Pan Wenbo, a farm ministry official
  • Crop acreage damaged so far is lower than last year and the five-year average

EU Extends Duties on U.S. Biodiesel Imports: Official

European Commission extends anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of biodiesel from the U.S. for a further five years, according to an official who asked not to be named in line with policy.

• Anti-dumping duties are fixed amounts ranging between 0 euros per metric ton and 198 euros per metric ton on imports from the sampled exporting producers, 115.6 euros per ton on imports from the non-sampled cooperating companies, and a fixed amount of 172.2 euros per ton on imports from all other companies
• Countervailing duties are fixed amounts ranging from 211.2 euros to 237 euros per ton net on imports from the exporting producers
• Official says that all parties concerned were given sufficient opportunities to defend their interests, but no American exporter cooperated with the commission

IGC Cuts World Grain Stockpiles Estimate on Wheat, Barley

World grain stockpiles in the 2021-22 season are now estimated at 594m tons, the International Grains Council said in an emailed report.

• That compares to a June estimate of 597m tons and would leave reserves 1m tons above the prior season
• The downgrade is due to smaller supplies of wheat and barley, IGC says
  • North American production of those two crops, as well as oats, have been cut by drought
  • Global grains trade outlook also lifted 1m tons on higher barley sales to China
• Meanwhile, outlook for corn stockpiles is raised to 270m tons, due to a slightly bigger world harvest and lower consumption
  • That would put reserves 2m tons above the prior season
• Outlook for China corn imports cut to 16m tons, versus 17.5m tons seen in June and 28.7m tons the prior season

EU Raises 2021 Soft-Wheat and Corn Harvest Estimates: Commission

The bigger outlook comes amid rising grain production prospects in Romania, Poland and France, according to a report from the European Commission.

• EU’s soft-wheat harvest estimated at 127.7m tons, up from a June estimate for 125.8m tons
  • Difficult weather in 1H July raises “uncertainties about quality”
• Outlook for wheat exports to third countries kept steady at 30m tons
  • Stockpile estimate also maintained at 10.1m tons
• Barley crop estimate lowered to 52.6m tons, from 53.5m tons
• Corn crop estimate raised to 72.8m tons, from 70.6m tons

French Wheat Harvest Nears Halfway Mark After Rains: AgriMer

About 47% of the French soft-wheat crop was harvested as of July 26, versus 87% at the same time last year, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

Brazil’s Parana 2020-21 second corn output cut to 6.1 million mt from 9.8 million mt

Second corn production estimate in the Brazilian state of Parana — the second-largest producer of the cereal — has been cut to 6.11 million mt in 2020-21 from the previous estimate of 9.82 million mt, Parana’s state agriculture department DERAL said in a report July 29.

In the beginning of this season, the state was expected to produce 14.6 million mt in 2020-21 as against 12.17 million mt in 2019-20.

The loss in the second corn crop yield in the state was primarily due to the drought during much of the season. Moreover, pests and severe frosts that occurred at the end of June, and to a lesser extent in the second half of July, exacerbated the corn yield losses, the report said.

There will be a significant reduction in Brazilian corn exports in 2020-21 and it is likely that Brazil will see record corn imports, DERAL said.

Although Brazil is usually the second-largest corn exporter in the world, southern states in Brazil often import from Paraguay and Argentina as it is cheaper than transporting corn from the Midwest region of Brazil where the bulk of the corn crop is grown. With Parana lowering corn production, Brazil’s corn output is likely to be below 90 million mt in 2020-21, significantly below 102.5 million mt in 2019-20.

Russia to Keep Grain Export Duty in 2022: RIA Novosti

Russian government is not considering the possibility of abolishing grain export duty next year and is drafting 2022 budget based on it remaining intact, RIA Novosti reports citing an unidentified government official. Some grain producers have speculated that the export duty may be canceled in autumn and, as a result, they are reducing sales of crops, increasing stocks, RIA reports, citing the official

U.S. Chickens Can’t Hatch Enough Eggs to Supply Sandwich Craze

America’s chickens aren’t multiplying fast enough to keep pace with soaring demand. Bird breeds used by some of the biggest chicken companies are “producing less eggs,” according to Fabio Sandri, chief executive officer of Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., the No. 2 U.S. poultry producer.

That’s inflaming already rising food inflation, with strong chicken sales at grocery stores and restaurants such as Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen and McDonald’s Corp. embroiled in chicken-sandwich wars. The demand helped Pilgrim’s beat analyst estimates for their second-quarter earnings, released Wednesday.

France’s Rouen Grain Exports Rise 66% in Week to July 28: Port

Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 108,578 tons in the week to July 28, compared with 65,529 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 29: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2020-21 corn production estimate unchanged from last week
• Corn harvest 81.4% complete vs 72.2%