Global Ag News for July 30.24

TOP HEADLINES

Freezing temperatures threaten Argentina’s wheat crops

Freezing temperatures in Argentina’s main agricultural region on Monday aggravated the condition of the 2024/25 wheat crop, which is already suffering from the impact of a major drought, the Rosario grains exchange said in a report.

Argentina is a key global wheat exporter, but due to a significant lack of rainfall in its agricultural core, the grains exchange earlier this month reduced its forecast for the area planted with wheat by 2.9% to 6.7 million hectares.

“We are talking about minus four degrees (Celsius) in the northern area of Buenos Aires (province),” said the exchange’s head of agricultural estimates, Cristian Russo, according to the statement, which detailed that the region is reporting the driest month of July in nearly six decades.

“The combined effects of cold weather and lack of water have caused the death of seedlings and uneven plots, especially in the area of Pergamino,” an important agricultural town, the report added.

Rain is expected in the humid Pampas in the first days of August, but it would not reach the volume necessary to recover soil moisture level, the exchange added.

“Without adequate rainfall in the next 15 days, wheat will face further damage due to water stress and low temperatures,” the exchange said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 10 1/2 in SRW, down 14 1/2 in HRW, down 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 3 1/2; Soybeans down 11; Soymeal down $4.80; Soyoil up 0.03.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, down 6 1/4 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 20; Soymeal down $6.00; Soyoil up 0.18.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 53 in SRW, down 47 1/4 in HRW, down 32 in HRS; Corn is down 12; Soybeans down 75 1/2; Soymeal down $16.80; Soyoil down 1.78.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 17.1% in SRW, down 16.0% in HRW, down 19.7% in HRS; Corn is down 16.6%; Soybeans down 19.0%; Soymeal down 9.1%; Soyoil down 10.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 20 yuan; Soymeal down 15; Soyoil down 40; Palm oil up 58; Corn up 4 — Malaysian Palm is up 8.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 8 ringgit (+0.20%) at 3916.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 50 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,166 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 29 were: SRW Wheat up 4,571 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,140, Corn up 850, Soybeans down 8,509, Soymeal down 7,225, Soyoil down 11,189.

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal west and near to below normal east Monday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Midwest: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

The player sheet for 7/29 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the United States, Brazil, Argentina or South Africa.
• SOFT MILLING WHEAT, DURUM TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 125,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat and 50,000 tons of durum.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 320,000 metric tons of rice
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 105,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.059m Tons of Corn for Export, 403k of Soybeans

In week ending July 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 431k tons vs 263k the previous wk, 585k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 403k tons vs 338k the previous wk, 334k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,059k tons vs 991k the previous wk, 538k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 25

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 25 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for Mexico-bound shipments made up 127k tons of the 403k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

 

Ukraine accelerates harvesting, gathers 75% of early crops

Ukrainian farmers have already harvested 75% of early crops, production of which is expected to include 27 million tonnes of grains and about 4 million tonnes of rapeseed this year, Ukrainian media reported, citing acting Agrarian Policy and Food Minister Taras Vysotsky.

“About 9 million-10 million tonnes from this group, meaning about a third, traditionally go to consumption on the domestic market. Therefore, 60-65% of this produce that is now being harvested will be exported,” Vysotsky said in an interview posted on his ministry’s Telegram channel.

He also said that the harvest is being gathered far faster this year. “As of today [July 29], about 20 million tonnes of early grains have been harvested. On the same date last year, it was 11 million tonnes. The pace is significantly faster,” Vysotsky said.

He said the weather factor has been mixed this year. In the southwest there was a lack of precipitation and drought, which will lead to some harvest losses, but in the north, west and a number of central regions there was sufficient precipitation and crop yields are high. Consequently, the average figure nationwide will be as forecast.

“Thanks to the ability to actively export by sea, we essentially don’t have excess carryover reserves from previous years. Surpluses were exported. The plan for gathering the harvest is in line with the volume of elevator capacity inside the country,” Vysotsky said.

He also said that domestic wheat consumption in Ukraine has dropped to a little over 6 million tonnes per year from 8 million tonnes. The country is expected to produce 21 million tonnes of wheat in 2024, 15 million tonnes of which it is expected to export and the rest use domestically.

The ministry forecast in April that gross grain and oil crop production in Ukraine will total 74 million tonnes in 2024, including about 52.4 million tonnes of grains and 21.7 million tonnes of oil crops.

The forecast projects that farmers will harvest 19.2 million tonnes of wheat, 4.9 million tonnes of barley and 26.7 million tonnes of corn in 2024, compared to respectively 22.2 million tonnes, 5.7 million tonnes and 30.5 million tonnes last year. Soybean production is expected to increase to 5.2 million tonnes this year from 4.7 million tonnes in 2023, while the sunflower and rapeseed harvests are expected to drop to 12.4 million tonnes from 12.9 million tonnes and to 4.1 million tonnes from 4.7 million tonnes, respectively.

The gross harvest totaled about 82 million tonnes in 2023, including over 60 million tonnes of grains and about 22 million tonnes of oil crops.

 

France Assessing Wet Weather Damage to Its Grains Harvest

France’s agriculture ministry is assessing the impact of prolonged bad weather on the country’s grains harvest to provide farmers with insurance support against potential losses, according to a government statement.

• The government is “in close contact with insurers in the sector” to assess risks, as harvests are still underway and field reports vary greatly depending on the area and the nature of the crops
• The comments follow Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau’s meeting with wheat and barley farmers in the Eure-et-Loir department, southwest of Paris on Monday
• Apart from insurance support, measures linked to property taxes and savings can be used to help growers, if necessary, according to the statement

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 91% Done as of July 25: Agrural

Compares with 83% a week earlier and 55% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Index is the highest in historical series, which began in 2013, AgRural says
• With work virtually completed in Mato Grosso and well underway in states such as Goias, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, the harvest isdave now concentrated in areas with later planting

 

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 79.5% Done as of July : Safras

That compares with 50.3% a year earlier, and a five-year average of 42.5%, according to a report from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

• Harvest is 74.3% completed in Parana area, 50.7% in Sao Paulo, 74.2% in Mato Grosso do Sul, 69.9% in Goias, 93.5% in Mato Grosso and 32.8% in Minas Gerais

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Possible record in the 2024/25 crop presses down international values

International wheat prices resumed decreasing over the last days, influenced by the possible record supply in the global 2024/25 crop. It is worth remembering that international quotations were moving up due to the estimate of smaller production in Russia (major global exporter), as a result of the area decrease and unfavorable weather conditions. However, new forecasts by SovEcon indicate that the output in Russia may change from 84.2 to 84.7 million tons, increasing the optimism for a record in 2024/25.

Numbers in Argentina reinforce expectations of high global supply. According to data from Bolsa de Cereales, the good soil moist favored the planting. Activities hit 98.5% of the 6.3 million hectares, and the production is likely to amount 18.1 million tons, for an increase of 19.8% compared to the 2023/24 crop.

In the US, the USDA says that crops in good/excellent conditions are 77% of the total. The harvesting, in turn, reached 89% of the area.

BRAZIL – The weather has been favoring crops that had already been planted in Southern Brazil. In Rio Grande do Sul, data from Emater/RS indicate that the planting hit 94% of the area. In Paraná, activities finished this week, according to Seab/Deral. In Santa Catarina, 64% of the area had been planted up to July 21 – data from Conab.

According to data from Cepea, between July 19 and 26, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) dropped 0.17% in Rio Grande do Sul, but remained stable in Paraná and in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations rose 1.6% in Rio Grande do Sul and 1.43% in Paraná, but decreased 1.17% in São Paulo and remained stable in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations moved up 1.13% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.662 on July 26.

BYPRODUCTS – From July 19-26, values of wheat bran in bags increased 1.42% and 1.63% for the product in bulk.

Up to the third week of July (15 producing days), Brazil imported 365.357 thousand tons, 12.5% smaller than in July/23 (417.75 thousand tons in 21 working days). Exports, in turn, totaled 28 thousand tons in the first fortnight of July this year.

 

 

 

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