Global Ag News for July 29th

TODAY – EXPORT SALES

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 9 in HRW, up 12 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 8 3/4; Soymeal up $0.13; Soyoil up 0.48.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 13 in SRW, up 22 1/2 in HRW, up 32 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/4; Soybeans up 17 3/4; Soymeal up $0.32; Soyoil up 0.65. For the month to date wheat prices are up 17 1/2 in SRW, up 9 1/2 in HRW, up 66 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 36 1/4; Soybeans down 29 1/4; Soymeal down $22.30; Soyoil up 1.12.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 6 yuan ; Soymeal up 25; Soyoil down 122; Palm oil down 80; Corn down 3 — Malasyian Palm is up 119. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 119 ringgit (+2.76%) at 4427 rising from the biggest loss in more than a month on stronger soybean oil futures and expectations that a slow recovery in output in second-largest grower Malaysia may result in low year-end stockpiles.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Heavy rainfall south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. East: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, southwest Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

The player sheet for 7/28 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 3,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 28 were: SRW Wheat up 1,072 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,285, Corn up 4,510, Soybeans down 5,348, Soymeal down 4,489, Soyoil down 939.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat.
• WHEAT BARLEY, TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 515,000 tonnes of animal feed barley

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending July 22. Corn est. range 00k – 600k tons, with avg of 325k. Soybean est. range 100k – 600k tons, with avg of 347k

DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Rise 1.0% to 22.733M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report. Analysts were expecting 22.648 mln bbl. Plant production at 1.014m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.031m.

CROP TOUR: Spring Wheat Shrivels in Central North Dakota

Hard red spring wheat yields across six fields in central North Dakota estimated to average 16 bu/acre, Wheat Quality Council executive VP Dave Green says during second day of crop tour. 41% from last year and yields will average 30.7 bu/acre, the lowest since 2002 if realized. The bulk of that wheat is the hard red spring variety. Many withered plants had shriveled tillers that had fallen to the ground in some areas, Green says Some fields had swarms of plant-hungry grasshoppers. Estimates were as low as 10 bu/acre, with wheat a third of its healthy height, which is normally 30 inches.

CROP TOUR: North Dakota Spring-Wheat Yield Estimate Plummets

Hard red spring wheat yields seen at 24.6 bu/acre on the second day of Wheat Quality Council’s crop tour. Estimate is based on 95 fields visited and compares with the second-day tour average of 40.6 bu/acre in 2019. NOTE: There is no 2020 figure due to lack of data gathering during the pandemic.

Some tour participants said while bushels are down amid drought and excessive heat, quality and protein levels appear good. The yield estimate for durum wheat in N.D. was 23.6 bu/acre, based on 11 fields sampled. That compares with the 2019 tour yield of 29.7 bu/acre

Most Manitoba Crop Yield Expectations Lowered Due to Drought

Drought concerns persist in the key Canadian agricultural region, where yield outlooks for most crops have been downgraded this week, Manitoba government says in weekly report. A total of 15 rural municipalities have declared agricultural states of disaster over the past month, according to report

Producers with extra feed are asked to list their available supplies for sale. 60% of spring wheat crops in the province’s Southwest region are rated good to excellent, with 70% in the Northwest, 25% in Central, 50% in Eastern and 5% in Interlake. 55% of canola is good to excellent in the Southwest, 50% in Northwest, 10% in Eastern and 5% in Interlake.

Canada rapeseed production down again as hot and dry conditions continue to take hold

2021/22 Canada rapeseed production is lowered by 1% to 19.0 [16.6–21.3] million tons, as poor soil moisture continues to be a concern in the majority of producing regions of Western Canada amid a historic heatwave. Our current estimate puts planted area at 8.6 million hectares, up 2% from last season, which is below the StatCan’s latest estimate of 9.1 million hectares in its Principal Field Crop Areas report (29 June). The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) pegged its estimate of Canada rapeseed production at 20.2 million tons early July. The next StatCan update will be released in its Production  of Principal Field Crops report, which is scheduled for late August.

Unfavorable hot and dry conditions once again dominated much of late July across the Southern Prairies, depleting soil moisture reserves even further. Abnormally high temperatures were observed in Alberta and the western parts of Saskatchewan (2-4 °C above average), amid a continued lack of moisture (with deficits between 10-30 mm below normal). Alberta Agriculture and Forestry rated only 37% of its crop in good to excellent condition, far worse than the 5-year average of 74% and the 10-year average of 73%. Vegetation densities derived from satellite imagery continue to remain below historical median levels across most major production regions, and are turning downwards abruptly. Yield concerns are mounting as another heatwave is set to scorch Western Canada again next week.

USDA Says African Swine Fever Detected in Dominican Republic 

Deadly pig virus detected in samples from animals in the Dominican Republic, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service says Wednesday in a release. It’s the first time the disease was detected in the Western Hemisphere in about 40 years, the National Pork Producers Council says in a statement, adding the U.S. remains free of ASF.  USDA says pork and pork products from the Dominican Republic were already prohibited entry into the U.S. due to existing classical swine fever restrictions.

An ASF outbreak beginning around 2018 devastated the hog herd in China, the world’s top pork producer. The U.S. bolstered its biosecurity measures in the wake of the outbreak in China, according to Liz Wagstrom, chief veterinarian of the National Pork Producers Council.