Global Ag News for July 26.24

TOP HEADLINES

US spring wheat tour forecasts record North Dakota yield

Scouts on an annual North Dakota crop tour on Thursday projected that hard red spring wheat yields in the top-producing state will average 54.5 bushels per acre, the highest ever according to records going back to 1992.

The figure was well above the Wheat Quality Council tour’s 2023 estimate of 47.4 bushels per acre and the five-year average of 42 bushels per acre, excluding 2020.

The lofty forecast concerned some farmers on the tour, however, as they worry a strong spring wheat crop will only further drive down U.S. wheat future prices that are already near four-year lows.

Cool, rainy conditions propelled yield predictions to record levels, but the same weather has also helped spread fusarium head blight, also known as scab, which can result in grain being sold at hefty discounts.

“There’s probably six weeks left until harvest and a lot of things can happen. But right now, the potential looks really nice,” Brian Walker, member of the Wheat Quality Council, said.

Experts noted that hot weather and triple-degree heat forecasted for some areas in the coming weeks may mean the harvest ultimately falls short of expectations.

Grain traders, millers and exporters are monitoring conditions of hard red spring wheat, which is used in pizza crusts, breads and bagels. Major wheat-growing areas in the Black Sea have suffered from drought, though improving yield forecasts from the region’s ongoing harvest have weighed on futures prices.

Scouts admired lush fields where wheat grew so thick the ground was barely visible during the tour of the nation’s top spring wheat producing state.

Despite a healthy crop, many groups noted the prevalence of fusarium fungus, which is identified by telltale salmon-pink streaks on the wheat heads. It can cause vomiting in animals and humans if present in high enough quantities.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, up 2 3/4 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 5 1/2; Soymeal down $1.90; Soyoil down 0.26.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 14 3/4; Soybeans up 38; Soymeal up $19.80; Soyoil down 0.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 34 1/2 in SRW, down 22 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans down 30; Soymeal down $8.20; Soyoil up 0.12.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.1% in SRW, down 12.1% in HRW, down 15.5% in HRS; Corn is down 14.2%; Soybeans down 14.1%; Soymeal down 8.6%; Soyoil down 5.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans up 23 yuan; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil up 90; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is up 23.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 23 ringgit (+0.59%) at 3941.

There were changes in registrations (-16 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 50 Corn; 44 Soybeans; 1,166 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 25 were: SRW Wheat up 453 contracts, HRW Wheat down 114, Corn down 14,227, Soybeans down 16,766, Soymeal down 4,202, Soyoil down 7,862.

 

Northern Plains: Heat is spreading through most of the region Thursday, but a cold front will move into the region on Friday that will cut down the intensity for the weekend. The front will be slow to move out until Sunday. Models produce precipitation along the front, but nothing overly heavy or widespread. Another front could produce some showers mid next week with another late next week. Though fronts are coming through, temperatures are still forecast to be above normal next week while shower potential is low. Some issues with dryness and heat will be possible for wheat especially, but also for corn and soybeans. The warmth is somewhat needed for corn and soybeans that had a cool and late start to planting and early development, but they could use some more rain to go along with it.

Central/Southern Plains: Conditions have become drier and temperatures are rising. A front moving in this weekend and early next week could provide scattered showers, though models are focusing efforts to the north and east. Another mostly dry front will move through mid next week. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb and are forecast to be consistently hot next week. The situation was fairly positive for most areas of the region, but the turn to hotter and drier could start to have an impact on reproductive to filling corn and soybeans.

Midwest: A front produced limited showers this week that continue on Thursday. Only small areas have seen moderate to heavy amounts. Temperatures will gradually rise this weekend ahead of the next front that will move through with more showers early next week. Another front moves through a few days later with potential for more mid-late next week. Models are producing scattered showers and potential for severe weather with both fronts, but showers are widely scattered and some areas are bound to be missed. Most areas are in good shape at the moment, but the pockets of the region missed by the incoming rain could lead to dryness concerns for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans, especially with temperatures becoming hot next week.

Delta: Scattered showers will continue to move through as an upper-level low slowly moves through this weekend. With the flow shifting to the south this weekend and fronts moving across the north next week, showers may continue but will probably be limited. Most areas have seen and will see good rain, though some areas may have issues with localized flooding if they get hit by multiple thunderstorms over the next few days.

Canadian Prairies: An upper-level ridge has been reluctant to move out of the region and brought heat over the last couple of weeks, especially to Alberta. The ridge is finally getting pushed eastward as a trough in British Columbia slowly moves into the region, bringing better chances for rain to northern Alberta but only sporadic showers farther south and east through the weekend. Dryness is becoming more of a concern with the continued heat and lack of consistent rainfall, unfavorable for wheat and canola in their critical reproductive stages of growth. The heat will likely take a couple of days break this weekend but the region will be on the edge of the ridge next week, which could lead to building heat again, but also the potential for more periods of showers. Models do not have much in the forecast, however.

Brazil: Recent drier weather should help to get more of the winter wheat crop planted, but the extremes of heavy rain followed by weeks of dry weather have not been favorable for the crop. Some showers will move in with a front this weekend.

Argentina: Most winter wheat areas are unfavorably dry, even after some rain fell in a few spots this week. Dryness has become a major concern for the wheat crop in the short term and the coming corn and soybean crops in the long term. Northern areas will see another front move through this weekend with another chance for limited showers, but the dry spell continues until possibly late next week, when models are more keen to widespread showers moving through with another front.

Europe: A system brought widespread showers to Europe this week, unfavorable to those in France and Germany where it is too wet, but relief to eastern areas that have been too dry. The southeast has been dealing with frequent hot and dry conditions but some rain and a brief reprieve from the heat was welcome. Another front moves into western areas Friday through this weekend with more unneeded showers for France and Germany. A couple of disturbances next week could bring more showers through. Spain and Italy will be much drier and could negatively affect crops there. Temperatures are more moderate but southeastern areas continue to deal with heat stress when showers do not occur.

Black Sea: Hot and dry conditions continue to plague the eastern half of Ukraine and most of southwestern Russia where drought is widespread and affecting corn and soybean development. A system moving through eastern Europe will catch western areas with showers the next couple of days as it moves into the Black Sea. But eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia will remain unfavorably dry. Another system moving in early next week may have some staying power in the region, sitting overhead with scattered showers throughout most of the week and could be a boon to some local areas. But this will not be the widespread heavy rain that the region needs. Temperatures remain near to above normal until that system moves in, and will still be near normal with it overhead. Cooler and wetter weather is needed quickly, but damage is being done to both corn and sunflowers.

Australia: Northeastern areas could use more rain, but conditions are not critical yet. A front is moving through eastern areas and will bring showers into Queensland through the weekend where they are needed, but could be too isolated to hit all locations with needed rain. More fronts are lining to move through next week, but are favoring western and far southern areas with rain.

 

The player sheet for 7/25 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 9,500 corn, sellers of 9,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Exporters sold 264,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• FEED BARLEY PURCHASE: A South Korean importer purchased an estimated 18,500 metric tons of animal feed barley expected to be sourced from east Europe and Russia.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog issued an international tender to buy about 320,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending July 18, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 534k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Japan with 370k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 105k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending July 18, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 7.7k tons of the 30.2k tons of pork sold in the week
• Mexico led in pork purchases for the week, China bought 2.1k tons
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates July 25: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• Corn production estimate maintained at 46.5m tons
• Wheat planting advanced to 98.5% complete from 95%

EU 2024-25 Total Grains Production Forecast Cut to 271.6m Tons

The EU’s total grains production is seen at 271.6 million tons, down from a June estimate of 274.7 million tons, the European Commission said in a report.

• Soft-wheat harvest is seen at 120.8m tons in the 2024-25 season, cut from June’s estimate of 121.9m tons
• Durum wheat production was raised to 7m tons from 6.5m tons
• Barley crop was cut to 52.7m tons this year; corn was also lowered and now expected at 62.9m tons

 

Canada Crushed 776K Tons of Canola in June: StatsCan

Canola processing rose 8.3% in June from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada data released Thursday on agency’s website.

• Oil production totaled 335k tons, and meal output at 447k tons
• Aug.-June crushings up 11.4% from year ago to 10.028m tons

 

Brazil beef output to hit record in 2024, Conab says

Brazil’s beef production is expected to reach a record 10.19 million metric tons in 2024, national crop agency Conab said on Thursday, a 7.1% year-on-year increase that would eclipse the current all-time high set in 2006.

Beef exports from the South American country are seen reaching 3.44 million tons this year, the agency added, up 13.4% from 2023.

 

French Wheat Harvest Lags; Winter Barley 93% Complete: AgriMer

Just 41% of the French soft wheat crop was harvested as of July 22, up from 14% the prior week, according to data from FranceAgriMer.

• Compares with 76% this time last year
• Soft wheat in a good to very good condition also declined
• NOTE: Excessive rainfall has limited harvesting, planting and hurt crop conditions this year

 

Neste Sees Martinez Biofuels Plant at 100% Capacity by Year End

Neste Oyj said it aims for the Martinez renewable fuels plant in California to reach about 75% of nominal capacity during the third quarter and 100% by year’s end after a fire hurt output.

Martinez Renewable Fuels, a joint venture between Neste and Marathon Petroleum, was operating at slightly less than 50% of nominal capacity during the first half of the year, Neste said in a mid-year financial report

 

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 6.3% Y/y in June

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.27b pounds in June, according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 8.6% y/y to 2.14b pounds
• June cattle slaughter totaled 2.54m head, a 12.3% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 44 pounds from last year to 1,382 pounds
• Pork production down 3.8% y/y to 2.12b pounds
• Hog slaughter fell 4.9% y/y to 9,915m head
  • Avg live weight was 287 pounds vs 284 pounds a year ago

 

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 7.2% Y/y in June: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.52 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 6% in June from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 8.5% y/y
• Condemned ante-mortem down 6.3% y/y

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 317k tons in the week ending July 20 from 278k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 4.5% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 14.5% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $12.17 per short ton, an increase of $1.80 from the previous week

 

US Crops in Drought Area for Week Ending July 23: USDA

The following shows the percent of US agricultural production within an area that experienced drought for the week ending July 23, according to the USDA’s weekly drought report.

• The percent of spring wheat crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose 3 percentage points from the previous week to 15%
• Corn and soybean area both dropped a point to 4%

 

 

 

 

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