Global Ag News for July 20th

USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 65% G/E, Soybeans 60%

Wheat prices overnight are up 12 1/2 in SRW, up 13 1/2 in HRW, up 13 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7; Soybeans up 17 1/4; Soymeal up $0.46; Soyoil up 0.72.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 3/4 in SRW, up 14 1/4 in HRW, up 19 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans down 1 1/4; Soymeal up $0.28; Soyoil down 1.38.  For the month to date wheat prices are up 30 3/4 in SRW, up 6 3/4 in HRW, up 87 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 29 1/4; Soybeans down 9; Soymeal down $12.70; Soyoil up 1.04.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 218 yuan; Soymeal down 36; Soyoil down 120; Palm oil down 106; Corn down 25. Malaysia markets are close for holiday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers far north Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers far north Tuesday, northwest Wednesday. Scattered showers east late Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers west Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 7/19 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 11,500 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 6,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 19 were: SRW Wheat up 899 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,667, Corn down 6,940, Soybeans up 4,901, Soymeal down 354, Soyoil down 5,690.

There were changes in registrations (-87 Soymeal). Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 175 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of importers in the Philippines late last week purchased about 50,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from the Black Sea region
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat which closed last week
• OFFERS IN WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer received the lowest price offer estimated at $335.00 a tonne CIF liner out in an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 tonnes of wheat which closed on Sunday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase around 7,600 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms for arrival between Aug. 20 and Oct. 20. Deadline for price offers is July 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat.

 USDA CROP PROGRESS: Corn Conditions 65% G/E, Soybeans 60%

Highlights from the report:

• Corn 65% G/E vs 65% last week, and 69% a year ago
• Corn dough 8% vs 3% last week, and 8% a year ago
• Corn silking 56% vs 26% last week, and 55% a year ago
• Soybeans 60% G/E vs 59% last week, and 69% a year ago
• Soybeans blooming 63% G/E vs 46% last week, and 62% a year ago
• Spring wheat 11% G/E vs 16% last week, and 68% a year ago
• Winter wheat harvest 73% vs 59% last week, and 73% a year ago
• Cotton 60% G/E vs 56% last week, and 47% a year ago
• Sorghum 68% G/E vs 70% last week, and 51% a year ago

U.S. Inspected 1.001m Tons of Corn for Export, 144k of Soybean

In week ending July 15, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 144k tons vs 201k the previous wk, 455k a yr ago
• Wheat: 491k tons vs 428k the previous wk, 512k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,001k tons vs 1,002k the previous wk, 1,221k a yr ago

U.S. Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: July 15

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending July 15 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• China was the top destination for corn inspections
• Japan was the top destination for soybeans; Philippines led in wheat

China’s Imports of U.S. Corn Hit All-Time High in June: Customs

China bought 2.2m tons of corn from the U.S. in June, the highest ever in data going back to 2009, according to customs data Tuesday.

• Imports surpassed the previous record of 1.9m tons in May
• Shipments from Ukraine were 1.4m tons, the highest since January
• SOY
  • Soybean imports from U.S. fell almost 80% y/y to 54k tons in June, the lowest since July 2020, customs data show
  • NOTE: U.S. soybean sales season has ended and China shifted to buying from Brazil, its top supplier
  • Purchases from Brazil jumped to 10.48m tons in June from 9.2m in May; that’s highest since June 2020 when imports were 10.51m tons

Argentina Law Seen Adding 500,000 Tons a Year to Soy Oil Market

After Argentina passed a law reducing its biodiesel blend mandate by half, the South American nation will export about an additional 500,000 metric tons of soybean oil a year to global markets, Luis Zubizarreta, president of biofuel industry group Carbio, says in a phone interview.

• Argentina uses ~1m tons a year of biodiesel to meet the current fuel blend mandate
• Half will still be needed for blending. The other half will get shipped as soy oil, not biodiesel, because Argentina’s main biodiesel customers in Europe are fully supplied: Zubizarreta
• NOTE: Argentina is the world’s biggest exporter of soy oil, shipping5.36m tons last year

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 30% Done as of July 16: Agrural

Drier weather has been supportive of works in Brazil’s Center-South region, consulting firm AgRural says in emailed report. Harvest was at 20% a week earlier, 43% a year before

China’s Pork Demand, Supply to Be Balanced in 2H: Ministry (1)

China’s pork supply will be balanced in the second half due to a recovering domestic hog herd, while loss-making farmers may turn profitable amid rising consumption, agriculture ministry official Xin Guochang said at a briefing on Tuesday.

• Both pork supply and demand will increase in 2H
• Prices have stabilized since July at levels similar or slightly below costs
• Hog farms are urged not to bet on prices by hoarding pigs; instead they should sell on time and accelerate the elimination of breeding sows that are less productive
• Control and prevention of African swine fever is still “complicated”
• Recent emergence of new strains with milder symptoms and longer incubation period makes it difficult to identify cases immediately
• China has reported 11 outbreaks of African swine fever this year and culled 2,216 pigs; this compares with 19 incidents in 2020 when 13,500 pigs were culled
  • In 2018, there were 99 outbreaks and more than 900,000 hogs culled
• China’s corn price is likely to stabilize before autumn harvest, ministry official Song Danyang said at the briefing, while warning of possible impact from fluctuations in international grain prices
• China’s corn supply may improve due to larger acreage and good weather so far in the north and northeast: Song

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 10% So Far This Season

Ukraine’s exporters shipped about 1m tons of grains so far for the 2021-22 season that started in July, according to data from the agriculture ministry.

• Total includes:
  • 292,000 tons of wheat, down 29% y/y
  • 207,000 tons of barley, down 31% y/y
  • 498,000 tons of corn, up 26% y/y
• NOTE: Ukraine’s grain exports totaled about 1.1m tons by the same time last year

Kazakhs to Limit Soft Wheat, Forage Exports in Aug.: APK-Inform

Kazakhstan plans to restrict shipments of soft wheat, barley and cattle feed for six months from Aug. 15, market researcher APK-Inform says, citing the protocol of a government trade commission meeting.

• Agriculture Ministry must decide on quotas before July 26 and issue an order
• Central Asian nation will also ban exports of hay, rye and oats for the same period
• Spokeswoman at Agriculture Ministry declined to comment immediately

Brazil Wheat Prices continue firm; agents focus on the new season

Wheat prices continue firm in the Brazilian market, in spite of the lower liquidity. Agents claim that the low domestic availability reduces the interest in new deals. Besides, they are focused on the development of the crops in the current season, since the frosts last weekend may have damaged part of the crops. However, estimates still point to higher harvests worldwide.

CROPS – In Paraná, data from Seab/Deral indicate that wheat sowing in the 2021/22 season has ended, with 95% of the crops in good conditions and 5%, in average conditions. In Rio Grande do Sul, activities have reached 94% of the area, according to Emater, higher than the average in the last five years and a slight advance in the week, since farmers are waiting for better conditions of soil moisture to finish sowing.

PRICES – In the Brazilian market, wheat prices are on the rise. Between July 9 and 16, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased by 2.85% in Paraná, 1.68% in Rio Grande do Sul, and 1.41% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose by 1.79% in Paraná, 1.18% in Santa Catarina, and 0,09% in São Paulo. In Rio Grande do Sul, prices dropped by a slight 0.34%. The dollar decreased by 2.27% between July 9 and 16, closing at 5.12 BRL on Friday, 16.

Japan’s use of corn in animal feed drops in May

Japan’s usage of corn in animal feed fell to 47.8% in May, compared with 49.3% a year earlier, preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries showed on Tuesday.

Patchy Monsoon Rain Raises Growth and Inflation Worries in India

• Sub-normal showers cause sowing to fall about 12% this year
• Food prices may climb if rainfall distribution doesn’t improve

Poor monsoon showers are threatening India’s nascent economic recovery and could make food even more expensive in a country where more than half of the population depends on rain for farming.

The weather pattern, which usually begins its four-month journey from the southern state of Kerala on June 1, stalled for three weeks after bringing higher-than-average rains in the first half of last month. The monsoon has now revived, but the delay and poor precipitation will hurt the sowing of crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans.

Soil Moisture Looks to Drop in US Growing Areas

Soil moisture in US growing areas looks likely to see a decline this week, with higher temperatures fueling drying from rainfall seen over the weekend in some areas. “Drying will be accelerated in the northern US Plains and western Corn Belt this week and probably into early next week as well,” Terry Reilly of Futures International says. “Temperatures will be quite warm to hot helping to accelerate the decrease in soil moisture and increase in crop moisture stress.” However, grains traders say that many areas may have received enough rain to withstand the dry period–although other areas like the drought-stricken Northern Plains may just get worse.