Global Ag News for July 15th
TODAY — EXPORT SALES, DROUGHT MONITOR
Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, up 6 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/4; Soybeans up 3/4; Soymeal down $0.27; Soyoil up 0.59.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 40 in SRW, up 32 3/4 in HRW, up 64 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 39 1/4; Soybeans up 55; Soymeal up $0.92; Soyoil up 3.43.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 24 1/2 in SRW, down 32 1/4 in HRW, up 29 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 32; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal down $13.60; Soyoil up 1.58.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 72 yuan ; Soymeal up 39; Soyoil up 92; Palm oil up 90; Corn up 10 — Malasyian Palm is up 147. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 147 ringgit (+3.66%) at 4168 extending its rally to a third day on concerns about production in top growers and stronger prices of major competing vegetable oils.
Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, south Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday. East: Scattered showers through Saturday, south Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers east Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.
The player sheet for 7/14 had funds: net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 17,500 corn, buyers of 13,000 soybeans, buyers of 7,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of July 14 were: SRW Wheat down 260 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,339, Corn down 9,704, Soybeans down 3,798, Soymeal up 5,790, Soyoil down 97.
There were changes in registrations (-4 SRW Wheat, 77 Corn, -84 Soymeal). Registration total: 16 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 77 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 388 Soyoil; 318 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities said it bought 180,000 tonnes of Romanian wheat in an international tender for shipment Sept. 11-20. Prices ranged from $262.19 to $266.88 a tonne, including freight.
- WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture sought 118,911 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender.
- WHEAT TENDER: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation has issued an international tender to purchase about 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat for shipment in August and September. The deadline for price offers is July 14.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase about 55,000 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States. The deadline for price offers is July 16.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat,
- WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat
- SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase around 7,600 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms for arrival between Aug. 20 and Oct. 20. Deadline for price offers is July 21.
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report
Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending July 8.
- Corn est. range 200k – 800k tons, with avg of 443k
- Soybean est. range 200k – 800k tons, with avg of 480k
CROP SURVEY: U.S. June Soybean Crush Seen at 159.5M Bushels
Projections are based on a survey of eight analysts conducted by Bloomberg News on July 13-14.
- Soybean crush seen 4.7% lower vs June of last year, and a decline of 2.5% vs a month ago
- Oil stocks at the end of last month seen at 1.637b lbs vs 1.78b a year earlier
Corteva to Partner With Andermatt on U.S. Crop Protection Tech
Corteva Inc. will partner with agriculture-biology company Andermatt USA in multi-year agreement for use of crop protection technology, according to statement.
- Corteva gains exclusive license to an insecticide that targets pests that damage soybeans, cotton, sorghum, corn
- Corteva also gets exclusive license to a fungicide that protects potatoes, fruits, vegetables from soil-borne pathogens
DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.1% to 21.134M Bbl
According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.
- Analysts were expecting 21.391 mln bbl
- Plant production at 1.041m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.059m
Some Western Canada Rail Cars Halted Again on Fire Threat
- CN Rail tells customers operations suspended in parts of B.C.
- Rail traffic already slow to resume after June 30 fire
Canadian National Railway Co. told its customers on Wednesday that it’s temporarily suspending operations in parts of British Columbia due to wildfires, the latest snarl to rail traffic in the region after recent track damage left thousands of cars idled.
The company isn’t currently running trains between Kamloops and Lytton, B.C., as there are several fires in the area, according to a letter to customers seen by Bloomberg.
Egypt Wheat Purchases Are Running 22% Behind a Year Ago
Egypt’s state buyer bought 180,000 tons of wheat in a tender on Wednesday, putting its total purchases for the 2021-22 season about 22% below a similar time last year.
Key highlights of the tender:
- All the grain was purchased from Romania. That strengthens the country’s lead as the top supplier so far this season, accounting for two-thirds of sales.
- Prices were slightly lower than the prior tender, held last week.
- Cargoes from Ukraine and Romania were also offered.
2021/22 CANADA RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 19.1 [16.9–21.3] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1% FROM LAST UPDATE
Continued hot and dry conditions throughout the Southern Prairies lower 2021/22 Canada rapeseed production by 1% to 19.1 [16.9–21.3] million tons. Our current estimate puts planted area at 8.6 million hectares, up 2% from last season, which is below the StatCan’s latest estimate of 9.1 million hectares in its Principal Field Crop Areas report (29 June). The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) pegged its estimate of Canada rapeseed production at 20.2 million tons early July. The next StatCan update will be released in its Production of Principal Field Crops report, which is scheduled for late August.
Anomalously hot and dry conditions have burdened much of Western Canada over the past two weeks. Extremely high temperatures were observed in Alberta and the western parts of Saskatchewan (5-9 °C above average), amid a continued lack of moisture (with deficits between 10-20 mm below normal). Alberta Agriculture and Forestry rated 68.3% of its crop in good to excellent condition, worse than the 5-year average of 76.2% and the 10-year average of 74.3%. Despite still near average vegetation density levels shown by satellite imagery, yield expectations are down in most key provinces compared to last update. There is no end in sight to dryness across the Southern Prairies, warranting close attention.
France’s Rouen Grain Exports Drop 69% in Week to July 14: Port
Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 27,702 in the week to July 14, compared with 88,718 tons a week earlier
Strategie Grains Raises EU Wheat Crop, Global Import Outlooks
Wheat and barley harvests in the EU will arrive late this year, but yields are expected to be good except for in a few parts of central Europe, consultant Strategie Grains said in a report.
- Concerns are mounting about potential rain impacts on grain quality after wet weather across the southeastern and western EU, although the moisture will benefit corn in those regions
- Strategie Grains raised its outlook for world wheat imports in the 2021-22 season, notably for the Middle East and Turkey due to small crops there, which could boost prices this winter
- EU exports seen at 31m tons, and combined sales with Russia and Ukraine need to reach an all-time high to meet demand from importers
- China’s wheat imports are expected to remain high at 10.6m tons, versus 11.5m tons a year earlier
- Meanwhile, global corn demand will grow “only very moderately” as wheat is used more in livestock rations
- China’s imports may decline 7m tons versus last season, while purchases grow in the Middle East, North Africa and EU
Argentine 2021/22 wheat crop estimate raised to 20.5 mln tonnes – Rosario exchange
Argentine growers will harvest 20.5 million tonnes of wheat this season, thanks to a good weather that has increased planting on the Pampas grains belt, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday, increasing its earlier estimate of 20 million tonnes.
The South American grains producer is a major international wheat exporter, mostly to neighboring Brazil. The exchange said 90% of the 2021/22 crop has been planted so far.
Parched Argentine river cuts into grains exports
Ships leaving the Argentine agricultural ports hub of Rosario on the Parana River are having to reduce cargos by thousands of tonnes due to low water levels, the local head of logistics said on Wednesday.
Dryness in Brazil, where the Parana originates, has diminished cargo traffic and sparked worries by environmentalists about dredging the river below certain depths. The dryness has reduced the amount of cargo that can be carried by ships at the height of the Argentine corn and soy export season.
Russian government to consider extending soybean export duty – Trutnev – Interfax Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
The Russian government will consider extending soybean export restrictions, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District Yury Trutnev told journalists after a meeting of the government of the Amur Region.
The duty on soybean exports was introduced in Russia on February 1, 2021 at a rate of 30%, but no less than 165 euros per tonne. This rate was in effect until June 30. On July 1, the duty was reduced to 20%, but no less than $100 per ton. It will be valid until August 31, 2022. Export restrictions do not apply to soybeans shipments to EAEU countries.
Malaysia’s July 1-15 Palm Oil Exports 684,615 Tons: AmSpec
Shipments rise 4.9% m/m from 652,770 tons exported during June 1-15, according to AmSpec Agri on Thursday.
China’s Pork Output Jumps 36% in First Half as Herd Rebuilds
China’s pork output rose 35.9% to 27.2 million tons in the first six months from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said on Thursday.
- Nation’s hog herd reached 439 million at the end of June, up 29.2% y/y
- Breeding sow herd was 45.6 million, an increase of 25.7%
- Total meat output including pork, beef, mutton and chicken climbed 23% to 42.9m tons in the first half
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.