Global Ag News for Jan 9.2025

TOP HEADLINES

CME to Launch New Wheat Contract After Record Crop Trading

• Spring wheat futures and options set to launch early in Q2
• Exchange’s agricultural volumes rose to a record last year

CME Group is expanding its suite of agriculture markets with a new wheat contract, a move that could help further increase last year’s record volumes.

The exchange’s hard red spring wheat contract is set to launch early in the second quarter, pending regulatory approval, CME said in a Wednesday release. The new futures and options will compete with Miami International Holdings Inc.’s spring wheat contract — the market’s longtime benchmark previously traded under the Minneapolis Grain Exchange prior to last year’s rebranding as MIAX.

CME said it will no longer carry the MIAX wheat contract on its Globex trading platform. MIAX is expected to launch its Onyx trading platform at the end of the second quarter, preventing any interruption in trading.

Crop-trading volumes have been on the rise, with an increasing world population raising demand for food while Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 disrupted grain markets and sent wheat prices to a record.

CME earlier this month said its average daily volume in agricultural markets increased 13% to a record 1.7 million contracts last year.

The new contract for spring wheat — a high-protein variety used to make flour for bagels, pizza and pasta — will add to CME’s existing portfolio that includes soft red winter and hard red winter contracts, the latter of which CME acquired over a decade ago after integrating the Kansas City Board of Trade.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 in SRW, down 3/4 in HRW, up 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 7 3/4; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.22.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 6 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/2; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $10.00; Soyoil up 1.44.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 16 1/4 in SRW, down 9 3/4 in HRW, down 10 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 23 3/4; Soymeal down $18.30; Soyoil up 1.01.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans unchanged; Soymeal down 27; Soyoil down 48; Palm oil down 180; Corn down 3 — Malaysian Palm is down 58.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 58 ringgit (-1.33%) at 4296.

 

There were changes in registrations (-36 Soybeans, 82 Soyoil). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 6 Corn; 274 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,466 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 8 were: SRW Wheat up 1,356 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,811, Corn up 9,499, Soybeans up 6,745, Soymeal up 2,943, Soyoil down 98.

 

Brazil: Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but perhaps hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for a couple of weeks yet, so the rain is overall favorable. Showers across the south are much more infrequent for the next couple of weeks, which could be a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul.

Argentina: Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina and the forecast is only calling for spotty, isolated showers across the south through next week. That should start leading to issues for early-planted corn that is pollinating to filling. It is still early for late-planted corn and soybeans to have major concerns, but issues may start to pop up with temperatures above normal coinciding with the lack of rainfall.

Northern Plains: The region will see several systems and fronts push through over the next couple of weeks, but not enough to have a significant impact on the drought that continues to be a concern this winter. Temperatures will be more above normal than below it through most of next week, but we could see a big burst of cold air moving back into the region next weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: Cold air that has settled in is extremely cold where the snow from the weekend was the heaviest. The cold could cause winter kill on exposed wheat and higher rations for livestock. A system will move through Texas and Oklahoma Thursday and Friday and may clip southeastern Kansas with some moderate snow as well. That could help the soil moisture situation in these areas. It will also be a generally colder pattern through much of next week too. A big storm system is likely to move through late next week or weekend, potentially bringing some heavier precipitation, but also another burst of very cold air.

Midwest: Another snow producing system will move through southern and eastern areas late Friday and Saturday. A clipper will follow behind it for the weekend into early next week with scattered snow as well. Models are insisting on milder temperatures overall after a cold burst this week, though southern areas that have seen snow could take a while to melt and keep temperatures down for a bit. And a short burst of cold could follow behind the clipper early next week. A much bigger burst of cold air is being forecast for next weekend into the following week behind a large system that could mean heavy precipitation as well.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, bolstered by strong storm this past weekend and another coming up on Thursday and Friday. If yet another one of these larger systems moves through later next week, water levels will continue to be high, allowing for easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin is getting drier though, and could use some precipitation.

 

The player sheet for Jan.8 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOY SALE: Exporters sold 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to unknown buyers for 2024/25 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a daily reporting system.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender on Wednesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 114,650 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender seeking the same volume on Thursday
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchased in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal-feed corn from Argentina or Brazil
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.2% to 24.148M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 23.873 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.102m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.093m

 

Bolivia Extends Wheat Tariff Exemption to Guarantee Bread Supply

Bolivia’s government extended the tariff exemption for imports of wheat and wheat flour to guarantee bread supply amid intentions of producers to increase prices, Productive Development Minister Nestor Huanca said in a press conference via webcast.

• Tariff suspension on wheat imports was due to end on Dec. 31, 2024, but the government extended the exemption until August 31, 2025: Huanca
• Huanca said the government is also importing rice until domestic production affected by climate events recovers

 

Brazil’s biggest soy state Mato Grosso starts harvest

Farmers in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state, have begun reaping their crop after planting delays hampered the start of work, farmer group Aprosoja-MT said on Wednesday.

Aprosoja-MT did not provide an estimate on the progress of this year’s harvesting, which is in its early stages. By Jan. 12 last year, Mato Grosso had collected 6.46% of the state’s soybeans, according to farmer-backed agricultural institute IMEA.

This season, Mato Grosso planted 12.66 million hectares (31.283 million acres) with soybeans, up 1.47% compared to the previous crop, according to IMEA. With yields poised to recover after last year’s drought, production should grow 12.78% to 44 million tons, the institute said.

With regular rainfall, the harvest could be a record, said Luiz Pedro Bier, vice president of Aprosoja-MT. But a more accurate projection could not be made at this time, he added.

“It is too early to guarantee that the harvest will truly be a record,” said Bier. “Some factors, such as lack of sunlight at the beginning of the cycle, may have affected productivity, and this is the case for the first areas being harvested in the state.”

Excessive rains during the harvest period are also a concern for farmers in central Brazil.

Aprosoja-MT says it lacks definitive data on the impact of rainfall on the harvest, since work in the state is just beginning. Bier added, however, that in some regions the rains may represent “an obstacle” to the progress of harvesting. According to Bier, irrigated crops are yielding fewer soybeans than expected.

 

Brazil soy exports seen down in Jan, record for 2025 – Anec

Brazil’s January soybean exports are estimated at 1.71 million tons, down nearly 30% from the same month last year, although a potentially record harvest could boost shipments in 2025 to an unprecedented 110 million tons, grains exporter lobby Anec said on Tuesday.

The volume forecast for January, if confirmed, would be below the 2.4 million tons shipped a year earlier, according to Anec. But it could mean an increase of about 300,000 tons compared to December, when the reduction in supply during the off-season impacted shipments.

Harvesting of Brazil’s new soybean is in its early stages and should intensify from February onwards.

China is by far the biggest buyer of Brazilian soy, having imported 74 million tons last year, or 76% of Brazil’s total exports. Spain comes in second, having imported 4.1 million tons.

“Regarding exports, our estimate is that there is potential to export up to 110 million tons, which represents a real challenge to be met in terms of logistics,” Anec stated. Such high shipments would represent an increase of around 13 million tons compared to 2024, and would also surpass the historic mark of 2023, when 101.3 million tons were shipped, according to Anec data.

Brazil is likely to produce around 170 million tons of soybeans this year, the highest ever, according to private consultancies.

Corn exports were forecast at 2.9 million tons for the current month, also below the 3.5 million registered a year earlier. However, as with soybeans, Anec expects an increase in Brazilian corn exports in 2025 compared to 2024, despite strong domestic consumption amid the expansion of plants using ethanol produced from the cereal.

“The surplus volumes will be destined for export, which should have the potential to reach 42 million tons,” Anec said. This compares with nearly 38 million tons for 2024.

 

Dry spell puts southern Brazil soy farmers on alert as rains pound central regions

Dry weather is limiting soybean development in Brazil’s southernmost state, putting farmers on alert there at the same time as excessive rain is set to disrupt early harvest work in central areas of the country, according to meteorologists.

Expectations for the 2025 soy harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, are sitting above 170 million metric tons. But output in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains have been scarce, is essential for achieving the target, which would be a record, according to some private consultancies.

“Some areas have gone more than 15 to 20 days without significant showers, and soybean development is starting to be somewhat compromised,” said agrometeorologist Loana Cardoso, from Rio Grande do Sul’s agriculture agency Seapi.

The state, which borders drought-stricken and large grain producer Argentina, could harvest more than 20 million tons if the most upbeat forecasts are confirmed.

“We are not yet in the critical periods of the crop… but we are in a state of alert,” Cardoso said.

Rural Clima agrometeorologist Ludmila Camparotto said the state’s northwestern region, one of the most relevant, is not expected to have rains in the next 12 to 15 days.

Alexandre Nascimento, managing partner and meteorologist at Nottus, said regular rains should return after Jan. 20 and be more frequent through February.

There are also concerns about excessive rainfall disrupting the start of the Center-West harvest, said Nascimento and Rural Clima’s Camparotto.

In the northeastern region of Rio Grande do Sul, accumulated rainfall over the next ten days will exceed, at best, 20 millimeters, while in the behemoth farm state of Mato Grosso, some areas will receive around 170 millimeters, according to LSEG data.

Nottus’ Nascimento confirmed expectations of heavy rainfall in the first half of the year in central Brazil.

“The crops that would already be harvested during this period will probably have problems due to wintering,” he said

 

2025/26 India wheat production prospects remain optimistic amid expanded sown area

2025/26 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 112.7 [106.2–115.4] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 India wheat production is unchanged from our previous estimate of 112.7 million metric tons (mmt) amid an expansion in our sown area estimate in key producing state, Haryana. Over the past week, northern India experienced dry weather conditions but benefited from favorable late-December rainfall. Overall, current soil moisture levels across the key producing northern states are assessed as adequate to favorable. LSEG’s latest weather forecast indicates cool and dry weather throughout the next 10-days over northern India. Cool weather should be beneficial to the crop during the vegetative stage. We will periodically update our production estimate as we continue to closely monitor weather patterns along with key indicators such as crop vegetation densities (NDVI) to assess the condition of the crop as the season progresses.

 

Hot and dry weather prospects slightly lower Argentina soybean production

2024/25 Argentina: 51.3 [49.0–53.6] MILLION TONS, DOWN 1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Lingering dryness across the central/eastern Pampas and hot weather prospects through late January decrease 2024/25 Argentina soybean production by 1% to 51.3 [49.0–53.6] tons, as planting season comes to an end and growing season begins to ramp up. Our current estimate puts planted area at 17.9 million hectares, in line with the Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario’s latest outlook, but below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 18.4 million hectares. In December’s WASDE (released on 10 December), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 52 million tons, up from its previous projection of 51 million tons in November. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires and Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario currently forecast production at 50.6 and 53-53.5 million tons, respectively.

Over the past two weeks much of Santa Fe, Entre Ríos and northern Buenos Aires (and areas to the northeast) once again received less than 20 mm of precipitation, far below (up to 70 mm) normal. The only major crop region benefited from the recent weather pattern is Córdoba, which saw a near average rain up to 50 mm in total during the same period. Nearly all of the core producing areas in the Pampas are currently showing at least 6-year low soil moisture levels, owing to persistent dry weather since mid-December. Relatively healthy soil moisture conditions maintained up until early December (thanks to intense wetness during early sowing season) have quickly faded away, and the lack of moisture will likely continue to hamper yield potential as there is no end in sight to dryness through the end of the month. This warrants close attention as most first crop soybeans have already entered their early blooming phases thanks to swift planting pace in December, which makes them readily susceptible to low soil moisture risks moving forward.

Soybean planting is nationally 93% complete so far according to the Ministry of Agriculture, ahead of last year’s 89% and the 5-year average of 88%. Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires also reported a progress of 92.7%, well ahead of schedule. In Argentina early soy planting typically ends in December, but second crop soybean (otherwise known as double cropped soybeans) planting can occur until January once wheat is harvested. There is currently no delay in wheat harvest, which should support the remaining soy’s rapid sowing pace. Long-term weather outlooks remain gloomy as temperatures are now expected to start to rise significantly, which have remained relatively cool so far somewhat offsetting low precipitation impacts. With hot and dry weather conditions lingering through most of January and potentially into early February as well, yield prospects will likely continue to deteriorate, warranting careful attention.

 

Indonesia suspects virgin palm oil mixed into used cooking oil exports

Indonesia said on Thursday its exports of used cooking oil and palm oil residue in recent years had exceeded production capacity, indicating crude palm oil (CPO) had been mixed in and prompting it to issue regulation curbing shipments this week.

The world’s biggest exporter of palm oil on Wednesday issued a ministerial decree clamping down on shipments of used cooking oil and palm oil residue, aimed to avert a potential shortfall of CPO for domestic industries.

Trade ministry data showed exports of palm oil mill effluent (POME) and High Acid Palm Oil Residue (HAPOR) in 2023 and January-October 2024 far exceeded the Indonesian government’s estimate of total capacity of around 300,000 metric tons.

POME and HAPOR are palm oil residue products that can be used to make biofuel or fertiliser.

Shipments of both products reached 3.45 million tons in January-October 2024 and 4.87 million tons in 2023. That compares with CPO exports of 2.70 million tons in the first 10 months of 2024 and 3.6 million tons in 2023.

The ministry also said there was a 21% increase in exports of POME and HAPOR between 2019 and 2023, compared with a 20% drop in CPO exports in the same period.

“This justifies (the view) that the exported POME and HAPOR were not purely from residue or used CPO processing, but were also a mixture of virgin CPO,” trade minister Budi Santoso said in a press statement.

Budi said that without regulations to curb exports availability of CPO for domestic use could be at risk.

Authorities have previously alleged that some cooking oil sold under a government programme called “Minyakita” had been mislabelled as used cooking oil and shipped overseas for biodiesel feedstock.

Separately, in June 2024, a group of U.S. senators alleged fraudulent used cooking oil had been shipped from China to the United States, including some cargoes that might include virgin palm oil.

 

Indonesia Tightens Rules on Exporting Used Cooking Oil, POME

Govt will now hold meetings to decide exports plans for used cooking oil, palm oil mill effluent (POME) and High Acid Palm Residue (HAPOR), according to a new trade ministry regulation posted on website.

• Regulators seek to ensure sufficient raw material supplies for govt’s cheap cooking oil program and B40 biodiesel program
• Exporters must apply for export permit that will be valid for six months after issuance
• Existing permits remain valid until expiry, says the ministry in a statement
• Indonesia exported 3.45m tons of POME and HAPOR in Jan-Oct. 2024, which is more than the 2.7m tons of CPO exported in the same period
• Govt says rising exports of POME and HAPOR mixed with CPO puts at risk the availability of CPO within the country

 

China accelerates efforts to boost crop yields, ensure food security

China will accelerate the breeding of new soybean and corn varieties and prioritize yield improvements for key grains and oil crops, as part of broad efforts to ensure food security, the agriculture ministry said in a statement late on Wednesday.

The focus will be on five key crops – corn, rice, wheat, soybeans and rapeseed – and the better use and coordination of good land, high quality seeds, machinery and farming practices, the ministry said.

The ministry aims to increase grain production by 50 million metric tons by 2030, which would be a 7% increase over last year’s record grain harvest.

In 2024, China’s total grain production reached an all-time high of 706.5 million tons, 1.6% higher than 695.41 million tons in 2023.

The agriculture ministry also called for coordinated funding to support the efforts to boost yields and help reduce China’s reliance on imports to ensure food security for its 1.4 billion people.

China still relies on imports of key agricultural products, especially soybeans and corn, to feed its people and livestock.

“We will vigorously promote stable grain production, yield increases, and ensure the secure supply of grain and key agricultural products,” the ministry said.

 

USDA Looks to Stockpile Bird Flu Vaccines for Poultry

The US Department of Agriculture is looking to build a national stockpile of vaccines to protect commercial poultry from the bird flu. Vaccines are being updated to match the more virulent strain found in the ongoing outbreak, and the agency “intends soon to move forward with a contract” to build a stash, according to a USDA statement on Wednesday.

• USDA is building a stockpile “due to the introduction of new HPAI strains, namely D1.1 from wild birds and persistent outbreaks among commercial poultry farms”
  • None of the currently licensed bird flu vaccines “are fully matched to the more virulent strain” in the current outbreak, and no licensed or unlicensed shots meet the criteria for an ideal vaccine candidate
• Creation of stockpile doesn’t mean the shots will be deployed as use “would be difficult in practice and may have trade implications”
  • The USDA also stockpiled shots in 2016 without using them
• Deployment of a successful vaccine candidate in dairy cattle “is more feasible and more likely to be successful in stopping or slowing the virus’ spread” than for birds
  • At least seven vaccine candidates to protect dairy cows from bird flu have been approved for field safety trials

 

USDA says it has not set Jan. 20 as date to resume Mexican cattle imports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has not established Jan. 20 as a date to resume cattle imports from Mexico, the agency said on Wednesday, after it blocked shipments in November over the discovery of the New World screwworm pest in Mexico.

CME Group cattle futures prices came under pressure from a media report that cited anonymous sources as saying that imports of feeder cattle from Mexico are expected to partially resume the week of Jan. 20.

 

Bolivia Extends Wheat Tariff Exemption to Guarantee Bread Supply

Bolivia’s government extended the tariff exemption for imports of wheat and wheat flour to guarantee bread supply amid intentions of producers to increase prices, Productive Development Minister Nestor Huanca said in a press conference via webcast.

• Tariff suspension on wheat imports was due to end on Dec. 31, 2024, but the government extended the exemption until August 31, 2025: Huanca
• Huanca said the government is also importing rice until domestic production affected by climate events recovers

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 703k tons in the week ending Jan. 4 from 945k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 36% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 8.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $15.24 per short ton, a decline of $0.12 from the previous week

 

NZ Institute Sees Less Chance That La Niña Develops By March

NZ’s National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research comments in seasonal outlook for three months through March, published Thursday in Wellington.

• There is a 40% chance that La Niña develops by the end of March
• NOTE: Previously 50% chance by end of February
• Recent signals from ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific have been unusual contributing to atypical La Niña-like conditions
• Increased likelihood of more neutral conditions suggests more westerly winds
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near-normal or below-normal across the North Island and the east of the South Island, and near-normal for the remainder of the South Island

 

 

 

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