Global Ag News For Jan 8.2026

TOP HEADLINES

US competition to dent Chinese demand for Brazil’s soy in 2026, trade group says

Sales of U.S. soybeans to China will partly dent demand for the Brazilian product this year from the world’s largest importer, Sergio Mendes, head of grain traders lobby Anec, said in an interview on Wednesday.

In a video call, Mendes said Brazilian soybean traders are expected to ship 77 million metric tons of the oilseed to China in 2026, ten million tons less than in 2025.

Part of the volumes previously directed to China may be shipped to Brazil’s other traditional clients in Asia and Europe, he said citing Spain, Thailand, Turkey and Iran.

Overall, Brazilian soy shipments are projected to reach a record 112 million tons this year, compared with around 109 million tons in 2025, according to Anec’s fresh forecasts shared with Reuters first.

“Considering the resumption of soybean supply by the United States, Brazil should maintain the export volumes observed in recent seasons, with at least 70% of that total destined for China,” Anec said in a statement after the interview.

“In absolute terms, this represents an estimated volume of at least 77 million tons,” it added.

China’s total purchases from the latest U.S. crop are estimated at 8.5 million to nearly 10 million tons, representing up to 80% of the 12 million metric tons that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China pledged to buy by the end of February.

Last year, Brazil’s soy exports were around 109 million tons, slightly below the 110 million tons forecast by Anec as rains hampered shipments in December, Mendes said.

He added January soybean shipments will partly make up for volumes that were not exported in December.

Anec also projects 24 million tons of soymeal exports from Brazil this year, and 44 million tons of corn, according to Mendes.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3/4 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is down 3/4; Soybeans down 2 1/4; Soymeal down $0.90; Soyoil up 0.14.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 15 3/4 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/4; Soybeans up 17 3/4; Soymeal up $8.30; Soyoil up 0.09.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 3/4 in SRW, up 16 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 17 1/4; Soymeal up $5.10; Soyoil up 0.89.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans up 32 yuan; Soymeal up 13; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil up 114; Corn up 18 — Malaysian Palm is up 9.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 9 ringgit (+0.22%) at 4042.

There were changes in registrations (-150 Soybeans). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 663 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 152 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 7 were: SRW Wheat up 3,596 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,747, Corn down 848, Soybeans up 4,067, Soymeal up 6,644, Soyoil up 1,910.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 JANUARY 2026

• NORTH AMERICA: The prospects for a largely cool and dry spring across major U.S. crop regions would have minimal impacts on plantings while, with downside risks possible for winter wheat development
• SOUTH AMERICA: A cool season during March-May with near normal rainfall in Brazil would bode well for 2nd crop corn
• AFRICA: High rainfall is likely along West Africa cocoa regions during the March-May development period in a very favorable outlook for the crop
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Indonesia palm oil could suffer from dry conditions during March-May in an unfavorable forecast for production
• TELECONNECTIONS: La Niña will come to an end in the next few months, but an El Niño trajectory is far from a given as the year progresses

 

Brazil – Rio Grande do Sul and Parana: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Brazil – Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Northern Plains: Isolated showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Midwest – West: Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Midwest – East: Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday. Outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

 

The player sheet for 1/7 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,000 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 5,500 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. The deadline for price offers is January 13.
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday, European traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 210,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, European traders said on Thursday. The deadline for submission of price offers in the tender is Friday, January 9.
• RICE TENDER: Iranian firm Jahad Sabz Company issued a tender to purchase 10,000 tons of rice sourced from Pakistan, according to a copy of the tender sent to European traders. The deadline for submission of price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 56,944 tons of rice to be sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for price offers was December 30.
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, which closed on December 22, was estimated at $359.77 a ton CIF liner out, traders said. Price offers must remain valid until January 5.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said on Thursday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan made no purchase in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of barley on Wednesday.

 

 

 

TODAY

Much needed rainfall could bolster Argentina’s corn, soy production

Heavy rainfall forecast across most of Argentina’s agricultural belt will boost moisture levels over the coming days, benefiting soy and corn crops at key development stages, two major grain exchanges said on Wednesday.

• Argentina is a key global food exporter, and the Rosario Grains Exchange (BCR) forecasts a record 2025/26 corn harvest of 61 million metric tons and a soybean harvest of 47 million tons.
• The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said most agricultural areas will receive 25-75 millimeters of rain over the weekend or early next week.
• The BCR said there are reasons for optimism about forecast rains for Thursday and the weekend, adding it expects no alterations in rainfall patterns for coming months.
• The rainfall would arrive during Argentina’s hottest period, currently summer, when precipitation is key to sustaining harvest projections.
• Farmers are planting the last lots of 2025/26 corn and soybean. The grain harvest is set to begin in March and the oilseed harvest in April.

 

Brazil’s pork exports hit record in 2025, set to rank third globally

Brazil’s pork exports hit a record 1.51 million metric tons in 2025, an 11.6% increase from the previous year, data from industry group ABPA showed on Wednesday.

• Based on the data available so far, ABPA said Brazil is expected to surpass Canada as the world’s third-largest pork exporter.
• December shipments totaled 137,800 tons, up 25.8% from a year earlier.
• The Philippines once again was Brazil’s top destination for pork, importing 392,900 tons in 2025, up 54.5% year-on-year.
• Exports to China, the biggest importer of Brazilian goods overall, fell 34% to 159,200 tons.
• ABPA Head Ricardo Santin said diversification of importers supports “positive expectations” for the sector in 2026.
• Brazil also had record exports of beef and chicken in 2025.

 

Brazil December Corn and Soybean Exports by Country: MDIC

Brazil’s Trade Ministry updates its website with exports by country of destination for December.

• Dec. soybean shipments to China rose by 84% vs the same period last year
• China shipments comprised 77% of the total in Dec.

 

Brazil Dec. Beef, Pork and Poultry Exports by Country: MDIC

The following data is from the Brazilian Trade Ministry’s website.

• Beef exports to leading destination, China, up 31% y/y in Dec.
• Beef exports to the US up by 24.5% y/y to 24k tons

 

Indonesia Mulls Raising Palm Oil Export Levy to Support B50 (1)

Govt may raise the levy to support an elevated mandatory biodiesel blending program called B50, Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry official Eniya Listiani Dewi tells reporters in Jakarta on Thursday.

• Govt may even need to raise the levy just to fund the existing B40 program amid a widening price gap between gasoil and palm-based biodiesel
• Steering committee for the Plantation Fund Management Agency, which collects levies and distributes the funds, will discuss the levy in a meeting next week
• Biodiesel consumption was 14.2m kiloliters last year, including around 6.8m kl for public service obligations
• The country’s installed biodiesel production capacity rose to 22.5m kl in 2025, +2.5m kl y/y
• NOTE: Indonesia’s crude palm oil export levy set at 10% since May 2025

 

Canada prime minister to visit China next week, spokesperson says

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China January 13-17, his office said on Wednesday, in what will be the first visit by a Canadian prime minister since 2017.

Carney is trying to diversify Canada’s exports away from its main market, the United States, as Canada faces uncertain trade policy from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The visit aims to increase engagement on trade, energy, agriculture and international security, Carney’s office said. China is Canada’s second biggest trading partner.

China announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola imports in August, a year after CanadaNews Story a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.

Carney had agreed to visit China after meeting with President Xi Jinping in South Korea in October.

Carney has previously stressed the need to restart broad News Story after years of worsening ties.

Canada’s agriculture minister said in November his weeklong trip to China was evidence of bilateral relations beginning to thaw, something desperately needed by Canada’s farmers and canola exporters.

 

U.S. Ethanol Output on Pace to Meet Corn Usage Target — Market Talk

U.S. ethanol production was down last week by 22,000 barrels a day at 1.098 million b/d, the EIA reports. Average production for the last four weeks at 1.111 million barrels a day is in line with the average needed between January and August to reach the USDA’s current 5.6 billion bushel corn-for-ethanol usage estimate for the 2025/26 corn marketing year, Randy Mittelstaedt of RJO Futures says in a note. Ethanol stocks rose last week by 708,000 barrels to 23.65 million, at the high end of estimates in a Dow Jones survey of analysts.

 

Ethanol Producer Poet to Double Capacity at Indiana Plant

Poet LLC will expand its ethanol processing facility in Shelbyville, Indiana, to double its processing capacity, the company said in a statement.

• Production to grow to 193 million gallons of bioethanol from 98 million gallons.
• Construction will begin in March and is expected to be finished by the fourth quarter of 2027
• Move will create 32 million bushels of increased demand for corn, company said

 

Wet weather in far south boosts Brazil corn prospects, but dryness emerges.

2025/26 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 137.9 [129.3–145.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent wet weather has improved soil moisture in southern Brazil, benefiting first-corn conditions in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina after early-season drought concerns. Overall, crops are in better-than-average condition, as indicated by supportive NDVI data. However, most of the country experienced warm, dry weather recently, except for the far south. Weather forecasts predict continued precipitation deficits (30–90 mm) and warm temperatures for the next 1–2 weeks, including Minas Gerais, Goiás, Bahia, Piaui, Maranhao, Mato Grosso, etc. warranting further monitoring.

 

WET SPELLS PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL BRAZIL AND NORTHEAST ARGENTINA’S CORN AND SOYBEAN BELTS

What to Watch:

• Wet spell across Northeast Argentina and dry in the Pampas
• Moderate to heavy rains in Central Brazil

 

ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD LA NIÑA DISSIPATION IN THE MONTHS AHEAD, WITH MAJOR QUESTIONS LINGERING AS THE YEAR UNFOLDS

What to Watch:

• La Niña conditions have likely peaked in a weak state, with dissipation ahead
• While La Niña is expected to end by March-May, a trend toward El Niño is far from certain
• A wet March-May in Africa could support upside for cocoa development, while dry weather may have impacts in some other areas

 

 

 

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