Global Ag News for Jan 30.24

TOP HEADLINES

Top Ethanol Maker Poet Joins Largest US Carbon Pipeline Project

• Poet bets on CO2 pipeline plan after prior partnership fizzled
• Summit says its project will be a big boon for US corn farmersBy Kim Chipman

Poet LLC, the world’s top corn-ethanol producer, is teaming up with a company proposing a massive carbon-capture and storage project in the US as it pushes to slash biofuel emissions and tap into demand for sustainable aviation fuel and other burgeoning markets.

Summit Carbon Solutions has agreed to ship carbon dioxide from 17 Poet facilities through its proposed pipeline in the heart of the Corn Belt, giving the project a total of 51 ethanol plants and raising total capital expenditures 45% to $8 billion, according to Summit. South Dakota-based Poet is banking on the project just months after a similar pipeline plan it was part of was scrapped amid regulatory obstacles and opposition from landowners.

Summit faces those hurdles too and has had to push back the expected start of its pipeline. At the same time, trapping emissions from corn ethanol production is crucial for an agriculture industry that must shrink its carbon footprint to take part in fast developing markets for lower-emitting liquid fuels, as well as fight off the existential threat of electric vehicles.

“The big winner in this is the American farmer,” Bruce Rastetter, founder and executive chairman of Summit Carbon’s parent, Summit Agricultural Group, said in an interview. “This pipeline project will allow ethanol to decarbonize and create new markets for farmers whose corn has now gone below the cost of production.”

Sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, is a major potential boon for corn farmers and producers of ethanol —  an octane booster and oxygenate that’s blended into US gasoline. But corn-based ethanol is just one of many ways to make SAF, adding pressure for the industry to cut climate-harming greenhouse gases so it can qualify as an ingredient under federal rules.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 5 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil down 0.37.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 13 in SRW, down 11 1/2 in HRW, down 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9; Soybeans down 16 1/4; Soymeal up $6.90; Soyoil down 1.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 40 3/4 in SRW, down 28 3/4 in HRW, down 32 in HRS; Corn is down 34; Soybeans down 105 1/4; Soymeal down $30.20; Soyoil down 3.00.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.5% in SRW, down 4.5% in HRW, down 4.5% in HRS; Corn is down 7.2%; Soybeans down 7.8%; Soymeal down 7.8%; Soyoil down 5.6%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 27 yuan; Soymeal down 7; Soyoil down 180; Palm oil down 152; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is down 106.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 106 ringgit (-2.68%) at 3842, posting the largest two day drop in seven months.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 849 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 6 Corn; 495 Soybeans; 125 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 214 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 29 were: SRW Wheat up 350 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,919, Corn up 10,151, Soybeans up 17,290, Soymeal down 2,446, Soyoil up 3,947.

Brazil: Scattered, heavy rain showers moved into northern Brazil this weekend but will be expanding southward throughout the week, getting as far south as Parana by the weekend. The break in the rain could help with fieldwork, the progress of which has slowed down in recent weeks a bit. The pace of harvest and planting is still on a near-average pace at this point in the season.

Argentina: Another week of dry conditions threatens to reduce crop conditions again and could quickly turn these good ratings around when combined with the coming higher temperatures, which could eclipse the 100-degree mark on several days for the next week across the west and south especially. Soil moisture is still good, but the increased stress will not be for the portion of the crop in reproductive and filling stages, which is sizable for both. Models are indicating better chances for precipitation in the country sometime next week.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily dissipated but still produced heavy rainfall in Queensland. The remnants to the tropical cyclone may still bring showers there through the weekend and possibly longer. Though some flooding would not be favorable, it could help to add to soil moisture for cotton and sorghum, as well as build subsoil moisture for winter wheat later this year. Other areas of the country remain unfavorably dry for the next week.

Northern Plains: It was warm and dry this weekend. These conditions will largely continue for the next week, though there may be some isolated showers in spots this weekend. The warm and dry conditions will keep demand low for livestock, but could be increasing dryness and drought in the region.

Central/Southern Plains: Heavier rain that moved through late last week helped with some of the drought in the region. It will be largely warm and dry this week but a system will move through Friday and Saturday with heavy rain and potential snow in Colorado and western Nebraska. Another round of good precipitation would be helpful for dormant wheat.

Midwest: Warm temperatures and rain have eaten away at a lot of the snowpack over the last week. The warmth will continue this week and next, though some eastern areas could see some milder temperatures this weekend and early next week. Some flooding will be possible where the combination of snowmelt and rainfall has been the most intense, especially in Illinois. Weak systems will move through on Tuesday and Thursday with limited showers, but most areas should stay dry.

Delta: Heavy rain over the last week has improved soil moisture and water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers, increasing transportation and reducing drought effects. The region will be drier this week, but will see another system moving through with showers this weekend.

The player sheet for Jan. 29 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Importer groups in the Philippines are believed to have bought an unknown volume of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from Australia in international tenders seeking up to 96,000 metric tons
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued a tender to purchase around 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States and Australia.
• BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley and 200,000 tons of soymeal.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) has issued an international tender to purchase 52,000 to 69,000 metric tons of corn sourced from optional origins
• CORN TENDER: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 136,000 metric tons of animal feed corn to be sourced from optional origins excluding Europe and the Black Sea region
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency BULOG has issued an international tender to buy 500,000 metric tons of rice
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 89,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER TO SELL: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to sell and export 150,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

 

TODAY

US Inspected 902k Tons of Corn for Export, 890k of Soybeans

In week ending Jan. 25, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 890k tons vs 1,185k the previous wk, 1,931k a yr ago
• Corn: 902k tons vs 747k the previous wk, 544k a yr ago
• Wheat: 265k tons vs 315k the previous wk, 446k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: Jan. 25

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending Jan. 25 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 487k tons of the 890k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

Brazil 2023/24 Soy Harvest 11% Done as of Jan. 25: AgRural

Compares with 6% a week earlier and 5% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

• Winter corn planting is 11% done in Center-South region, compared with 5% a week earlier and also 5% a year before
• Summer corn harvest is 12% complete in Center-South; it was at 8% a week earlier and at the same rate a year before

Navigation Halted on Argentine Crop Waterway After Ship Crashed

Navigation on the Parana River has been stopped while tugboats work to remove En May, a bulk carrier that crashed into a bridge on Sunday night, the Nabsa shipping agency said in a text message to clients.

• En May crashed into one of the pillars of the Zarate-Brazo Largo bridge at the river’s 106-km marker
• En May was sailing upriver to the San Lorenzo crop export hub
• Reasons for the crash are still unknown

Latvian Coalition Aims to Ban Russian Grain Imports, Leta Says

Latvia’s three-party governing coalition agreed to ban grain imports from Russia and Belarus, Leta newswire reports, citing Prime Minister Evika Silina.

• Coalition now plans to send legislation for parliamentary approval next month
• Latvia previously unsuccessfully lobbied for ban of Russian grain imports at EU level

WHEAT/CEPEA: Players in BR are focused on summer crop; harvest ends in Argentina

Brazilian producers continue focused on the summer crop harvest and on the planting of the second crop, especially corn. Liquidity for wheat, in turn, is low, and wheat mills are unwilling to close deals involving large amounts. In Argentina, Bolsa de Cereales indicates that the harvest has finished, with the production estimated at 15.1 million tons, against 12.2 million tons in the last season, which can increase the surplus to export and favor Brazilian purchases.

According to data from Cepea, between January 19 and 26, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) were stable in Santa Catarina, but decreased 0.2% in Paraná and 3.34% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values moved up 3.42% in Paraná, 1.48% in Santa Catarina and 1.28% in São Paulo. On the other hand, prices decreased 1.58% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the same period, dollar quotes dropped 0.3% against Real, closing at BRL 4.912 on Jan. 26.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between January 15 and 19, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 253.90/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 4.9149, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,247.90/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,244.65/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 237.44/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,167.01/ton – against BRL 1,214.93/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

According to data from Secex, Brazil had imported 323.91 thousand tons of wheat up to the third week of January, against 439.98 thousand tons in the entire month of January/23. Exports, in turn, had amounted 481.35 thousand tons in the same period, against 561.52 thousand tons in January last year.

Russian wheat export prices continued decline amid high supply in the Black Sea region

Russian wheat export prices continued to decline last week amid oversupply pressure in the Black Sea region, but export volumes have gone up, analysts said.

The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat scheduled for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in the first half of March was $235 per metric ton, down $3 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy reported.

“Underlying all this (decline) is the high supply in the Black Sea region,” says IKAR head Dmitry Rylko.

The Sovecon agriculture consultancy pegged the same class of wheat at $238-242 a ton FOB compared to last $240-243 a week ago.

As of Jan. 26, Russia purchased 495,000 tons of grain, including 473,000 tons of wheat, into the state fund. The authorities planned to buy a total of up to 2 million tons of grain, starting from the end of December 2023, amid high supply and stockpiles in the country.

Russia exported 0.65 million tons of grain last week, down from 0.75 million tons the previous week. The exports included 0.58 million tons of wheat (0.64 million tons a week ago), Sovecon wrote, citing port data.

SovEcon expects that in January wheat export will amount 3.6 million tons versus 3.9 million tons a year ago, Sovecon wrote.

At the same time, Sovecon analysts noted some gradually recovering purchases on the domestic market by exporters, primarily in “non-southern” regions. In the south demand remains modest while supply is high.

“The grain export quota kicks in on February 15 and we assume that some traders want to execute their export contracts before that,” Sovecon said in the weekly note.

The quota is set at 24 million tons for wheat, corn, barley, and rye without breakdown for individual crops. It is distributed among traders based on the share of their shipments in total exports in July-December 2023.

Sovecon last week said it raised its forecast for the Russian wheat harvest in 2024 by 0.9 million tons to 92.2 million tons due to favourable weather conditions.

In preparation for spring field work, the Ministry of Agriculture reported last week that the area of winter crops for the 2024 harvest amounted to 20 million hectares, one million hectares more than a year earlier.

“Temperatures are expected to be noticeably higher than normal in all regions. In early February we could see maximum temperatures above 10C (50F) in the South. This somewhat increases the risks for the new crop as it could be vulnerable to a potential cold snap later,” Sovecon warned.

Ukraine to punish firms for violating farm exports rules to Eastern Europe

Ukraine on Monday said it has tightened rules related to certain food exports, imposing a six-month trading ban for any companies violating the regulations, to ease tensions with bordering countries.

The EU suspended import duties, quotas and trade defence measures for imports from Ukraine in June 2022 to support its economy after Russia’s invasion. However, cheap Ukrainian grain exports have sparked protests by governments, farmers and truckers in neighbouring countries, such as Poland and Hungary.

To address the problem, Ukraine in October introduced a special export control mechanism to allow the government to better track shipments and punish offenders. The new rules came into effect on Friday.

“The Government adopted a decree that improves the rules for the export of certain agricultural products to prevent abuse,” the farm ministry said in a report.

“For example, if, according to the documents, the sunflower was going to Greece but was sold in Bulgaria, the entrepreneur will be excluded from the list of verified agricultural entities,” it added.

Until mid-September last year, the EU had allowed five countries – Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia – to ban domestic sales of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seeds, while allowing the products to transit for export elsewhere.

The European Commission said this month it was looking into ways of allowing eastern EU member states to continue to restrict farm imports from Ukraine as it extends trade liberalisation with Kyiv for a further year to June 2025.

Ukraine is a global producer and exporter of agricultural products and has traditionally used sea routes to supply food to countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

However, after the Russian invasion in February 2022 and the blocking of the main deep-water Black Sea ports, Ukraine was forced to divert its cargoes through land borders and some goods settled in neighbouring markets, affecting prices.

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023/24 July-June marketing season fell to about 22.1 million tons as of Jan. 24 from 25.7 million at the same stage last year, the government data showed.

The Ukrainian government expects a harvest of 81.3 million tons of grain and oilseeds in 2023, with a 2023/24 exportable surplus of about 50 million tons.

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle Herd Seen Shrinking to 87.6M Head

The US cattle herd as of Jan. 1 seen falling by 1.7m head from the same time a year ago, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of four analysts.

• That would be the lowest Jan. 1 level since 1951
• Beef cows seen down 2.6% y/y and dairy cows seen falling by 0.4%
• The 2023 calf crop seen down 2.3% y/y to 33.7m head
• The USDA is scheduled to release its semi-annual cattle inventory report at 3pm on Jan. 31

Russia to decrease wheat exports 13% in Jan to about 3.7 mln tonnes, reserves are high – Rusagrotrans

In January of this year, Russia is exporting about 3.7 million tonnes of wheat compared to 4.26 million tonnes in January last year. Thus, there will be a 13% reduction, the Rusagrotrans JSC analytical center told Interfax.

The company’s analysts say this will help maintain wheat reserves at a high level and increase export volumes in the spring months, when weather conditions will be more favorable for shipment from ports.

Using Rosstat data, the analysts said that wheat reserves in agricultural enterprises as of January 1, 2024 were almost at 2023’s high of 21.8 million tonnes versus 22.1 million tonnes a year ago. Meanwhile, reserves in the Southern Federal District coming from Krasnodar Territory and Rostov Region are 4.4% higher than a year ago at 5.4 million tonnes. In the North Caucasus District, reserves are 11% lower than last year due to a smaller harvest in Stavropol Territory. In other grain surplus districts, wheat reserves are slightly less than last year: in Central, they are down 2.6%, and in the Siberian district, 3.3% down. In the Volga district, reserves were slight up by 0.4%.

The analysts said that the reason for maintaining high stocks was the sharp decline in export rates in the last two months of the year due to weather factors and unfavorable global conditions. The total export of wheat for November-December 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 decreased 19% from 9.3 million to 7.55 million tonnes. “At the same time, rail transportation from remote regions of the center and the Volga region remained at extremely high levels at the end of the year, while road transportation from the near southern regions was down, leading to the preservation of high inventories in a number of them,” the analysts said.

Rusagrotrans said that export demand prices for Russian wheat (protein 12.5%) for shipment in February decreased $3 during the week to $237 per tonne (FOB). The price of American wheat rose $11 to $261 per tonne, while French wheat was up $3 to $240, and German wheat rose $5 to $248 per tonne.

Russia Limits Imports of Seeds From “Unfriendly” Countries

Russian government has temporarily set quotas on imports of seeds from the so-called “unfriendly” countries, according to statement.

• Restrictions will last through 2024 and will affect potato, wheat, rye, barley, corn, soybean, sunflower and sugar beet seeds
• Seeds from “unfriendly” countries can be imported within the quotas set at 33.1k tons

JBS Sees An Increase in Trade Barriers to AG Products: CEO

Trade barriers imposed to agricultural products are increasing, JBS CEO Gilberto Tomazoni said on Monday during the Global Business Forum for G20 (B20).

• Barriers are leading to agriculture products facing higher import duties than other items: JBS CEO
  • “This leads to a slowdown at the inclusion of traditional producing in global food system”
• Task force focused on agriculture will consider international trade as mechanism to foster sustainable practices among farmers: CEO
• JBS’s CEO also defended fighting hunger globally, including in agriculture fields, by increasing productivity and efficiency
  • “Happy to see that fighting hunger is a Brazil’s top priority in G20 as well as creating a global alliance on this matter”: CEO

 

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