Global Ag News for Jan 29.24

TOP HEADLINES

French Farmers Threaten Paris Blockade as Appeasement Fails (1)

• FNSEA, Young Farmers unions call for ‘siege’ of capital
• Interior Minister orders ‘significant’ police presence

French farmers’ unions threatened to block highways around Paris on Monday after government efforts to defuse recent protests with promises of additional aid fell short.

The country’s powerful FNSEA union, along with the Young Farmers union, has called for a “siege” of the capital even as Prime Minister Gabriel Attal pledged further support during a visit to farmers on Sunday.

“We’re stepping up the pressure because we’ve realized that when it’s far from Paris, the message doesn’t get through,” Arnaud Rousseau, the head of FNSEA, said on RTL radio Monday. “Our aim isn’t to annoy or make life difficult for the French, our aim is to put pressure on the government so that we can quickly find a way out of the crisis.”

Farmers have been choking roadways for more than a week to protest higher production costs and stringent European regulations. Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin on Sunday ordered “significant” police presence in the Paris region to prevent blockades at airports and the Rungis wholesale food market and protect entry into the city.

About 15,000 police will be deployed to stop tractors from entering Paris and other big French cities, the minister said. Protests over issues from rising fuel costs to shrinking subsidies spread from Poland and Romania to western Europe in recent weeks, while far-right parties across Europe are latching onto the unrest ahead of European Parliament elections in June.

Farmers in Belgium have blocked several highways in the country, including a portion of the ring road that encircles Brussels.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 3/4 in SRW, down 10 3/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 4 1/4; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil down 0.39.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 4 3/4 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 23; Soymeal down $7.40; Soyoil down 1.62.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 36 1/2 in SRW, down 28 in HRW, down 27 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 29 1/4; Soybeans down 96 3/4; Soymeal down $37.60; Soyoil down 1.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.8% in SRW, down 4.4% in HRW, down 3.8% in HRS; Corn is down 6.2%; Soybeans down 7.1%; Soymeal down 9.7%; Soyoil down 2.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans down 43 yuan; Soymeal down 63; Soyoil down 102; Palm oil down 44; Corn up 24 — Malaysian Palm is down 69.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 69 ringgit (-1.72%) at 3948.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 849 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 6 Corn; 495 Soybeans; 125 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 214 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 26 were: SRW Wheat up 6,684 contracts, HRW Wheat up 767, Corn up 4,548, Soybeans up 8,901, Soymeal up 3,172, Soyoil up 3,041.

Brazil: Scattered, heavy rain showers moved into northern Brazil this weekend but will be expanding southward throughout the week, getting as far south as Parana by the weekend. The break in the rain could help with fieldwork, the progress of which has slowed down in recent weeks a bit. The pace of harvest and planting is still on a near-average pace at this point in the season.

Argentina: Another week of dry conditions threatens to reduce crop conditions again and could quickly turn these good ratings around when combined with the coming higher temperatures, which could eclipse the 100-degree mark on several days for the next week across the west and south especially. Soil moisture is still good, but the increased stress will not be for the portion of the crop in reproductive and filling stages, which is sizable for both. Models are indicating better chances for precipitation in the country sometime next week.

Australia: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily dissipated but still produced heavy rainfall in Queensland. The remnants to the tropical cyclone may still bring showers there through the weekend and possibly longer. Though some flooding would not be favorable, it could help to add to soil moisture for cotton and sorghum, as well as build subsoil moisture for winter wheat later this year. Other areas of the country remain unfavorably dry for the next week.

Northern Plains: It was warm and dry this weekend. These conditions will largely continue for the next week, though there may be some isolated showers in spots this weekend. The warm and dry conditions will keep demand low for livestock, but could be increasing dryness and drought in the region.

Central/Southern Plains: Heavier rain that moved through late last week helped with some of the drought in the region. It will be largely warm and dry this week but a system will move through Friday and Saturday with potential for heavy rain and potential snow in Colorado and western Nebraska. Another round of good precipitation would be helpful for dormant wheat.

Midwest: Warm temperatures and rain have eaten away at a lot of the snowpack over the last week. The warmth will continue this week and next, though some eastern areas could see some milder temperatures this weekend and early next week. Some flooding will be possible where the combination of snowmelt and rainfall has been the most intense, especially in Illinois. Weak systems will move through on Tuesday and Thursday with limited showers, but most areas should stay dry.

Delta: Heavy rain over the last week has improved soil moisture and water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers, increasing transportation and reducing drought effects. The region will be drier this week, but will see another system moving through with showers this weekend.

The player sheet for Jan. 26 had funds: net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 5,500 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Two importer groups in the Philippines have issued two separate tenders each seeking to purchase between 45,000 to 48,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER TO SELL: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to sell and export 150,000 metric tons of durum wheat.
• BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase at least 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley and 200,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origin

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB issued international tenders to purchase around 160,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 30,000 metric tons of feed barley
• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued an international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency BULOG has issued an international tender to buy 500,000 metric tons of rice
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 89,650 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States.

TODAY

 

Brazil Farmers Harvest 9.46% Of 2023/2024 Soybean Area Versus 5.05% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 9.46% OF 2023/2024 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 5.05% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

Brazil Farmers Harvest 9% Of 2023/2024 Soybean Area Versus 4.4% At This Time Last Year – Safras & Mercado

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 9% OF 2023/2024 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 4.4% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – SAFRAS & MERCADO

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices oscillate, but decreases prevail

Soybean prices have oscillated this week; however, decreases prevailed. Moments of price rises were influenced by the good pace of exports and the low productivity of crops harvested in Brazil. Price drops, in turn, were attributed to data indicating high supply in Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay) and low domestic demand.

Because of firm shipments, producers were unwilling to trade large amounts in the spot market. According to data from Secex, in January (up to Jan. 19), 1.95 million tons were exported, 132.7% more than in January/23. Producers are also refrained from closing deals because of uncertainties regarding national production.

CROPS – The soy harvest hit 4.7% of the national area up to Jan. 20, higher than the 2% verified one year ago – data from Conab. In Mato Grosso, activities totaled 12.8% until Jan. 19 (Imea data), and, in Paraná, 12% of the total (Seab/Deral data).

PRICES – From January 18-25, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) decreased 0.7%, closing at BRL 120.72 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 25. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 0.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 115.93 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 25. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices moved down 0.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors). Dollar quotes decreased 0.3% from January 18-25, at BRL 4.921 on Jan. 25.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices moved down 1.9% in the last seven days. The Brazilian value of soy oil decreased 1.1%, at 4.860,50 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on January 25.

CORN/CEPEA: International prices move up; values decrease in Brazil

While international corn prices are increasing, quotations are moving down in the domestic market. In the international scenario, values are upping due to concerns with crops in South America – in Argentina, the weather is warm and dry, and in Brazil, heavy rains on summer crop producing regions concern players, since the weather scenario can reduce the quality.

Still, international price rises were limited by the low demand for the US corn and by the high volume produced in the United States. The USDA has indicated that sales dropped 24% last week compared to the previous.

In Brazil, prices rose in the middle of the week, due to an increase in the demand, but the fact that purchasers are refrained from trades prevailed. Sellers, in turn, are focused on crop activities.

PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) closed at BRL 62.24 per 60-kilo bag on Jan. 25, downing 2.9% compared to Jan. 18. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values dropped 3.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) 0.4% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) in the same comparison.

PORTS – Trades are moving at a slow pace at ports. Current exports refer to sales closed previously.

According to data from Secex, Brazilian shipments totaled 3.7 million tons in the partial of January (14 working days), which accounts for 60% of the volume verified in January/23. Anec indicates that exports may hit 3.86 million tons this month.

As for prices in the port of Paranaguá (PR), quotations decreased 4% between January 18 and 25, while dollar values moved down 0.3%, to close at BRL 4.92 on Jan. 25.

CROPS – Summer crop harvesting activities hit 8.6% of the area up to Jan. 20, while the second corn crop planting reached 5% in Brazil, according to data from Conab.

Argentina Says China Opens Door to Its Wheat for the First Time

Chinese customs authorities have authorized Argentine companies to export wheat, Argentina’s Agriculture Secretariat said in a statement on its website.

• “The market for Argentine wheat to be exported into the Asian giant will be operative for the first time”
• NOTE: Argentina wrapped up its wheat harvest this week with a better-than-expected crop of 15.1m metric ton, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
• NOTE: Farmers had sold 6.4m tons through Jan. 17, according to government data

Brazil Summer Corn Harvest 15.3% Done as of Jan. 26: Safras

Compares with 12.1% a year earlier and 5-year average of 10.2%, consulting firm Safras & Mercado says in report.

• Harvest is 32.5% done in Rio Grande do Sul state, 22.4% in Santa Catarina, 9.7% in Parana, 1.2% in Sao Paulo and 1.8% in Minas Gerais
• Work has not started in Mato Grosso do Sul, Goias, Distrito Federal and Mato Grosso
• Safras sees Brazil 2023/24 summer corn planted area at 3.972m hectares

Egypt to import around 7 mln tons of wheat this year – supply minister

Egypt will import about 7 million tons of wheat in 2024, the supply minister said on Saturday, adding there will be a temporary suspension of wheat trading on the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange due to speculation that led to high prices.

The country’s strategic reserves of wheat are sufficient for 4.2 months, Ali Moselhy said in a statement.

The ministry will resume offering the commodity on the exchange at a later date, Moselhy added.

Egypt Does Not Plan to Hedge Wheat Imports in 2024-2025

Egypt doesn’t plan to implement a hedging policy against wheat imports in the new fiscal year 2024-2025, because of the recent drop in prices, Supply minister Ali El-Mosilhy said.

“Current wheat prices have decreased to levels nearing those before Covid-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine,” the minister told Bloomberg in an interview.

Egypt, one of the world’s top wheat importers, has signaled numerous times in recent years that it planned to start hedging the grain in order to protect itself against higher prices. The country relies on subsidized wheat to feed its population.

Egypt’s stockpiles are sufficient for 4.2 months, with the country importing 6.5 million tons to 7 million tons of wheat per year, El-Mosilhy added.

Separately, according to the minister, vegetable oil inventories are sufficient for 5.1 months and sugar stockpiles for 5.4 months.

Kpler Sees Grain Volumes Transiting Suez Falling 63% YoY in Jan

2.4m tons of grains passed through the Suez Canal this month, compared to 6.4m tons in January 2023, according to estimates by Kpler analyst Ishan Bhanu.

• That compares to 6.6m tons last month
• NOTE: Attacks against cargo vessels in the Red Sea have caused more and more ships to avoid the area in the past two months
• Another 16 vessels were confirmed diverted this week, taking the total grains diverted since December to about 3.9m tons
• Most of those cargoes are for consumers in China or elsewhere in Asia

US Pork Production Up 3.7% This Week, Beef Down: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 592m pounds for the week ending Jan. 27 from 571m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 3.4% from a week ago to 2.719m head
• Beef production down 0.2% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 0.2%
• For the year, beef production is 5.8% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 2.5% below

Tampa Ammonia Price Drops 15.2%

U.S. ammonia prices, represented by spot prices for Tampa CFR Ammonia, fell 15.2% to $445 per metric ton in the week ended Jan. 26, according to Green Markets data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

• Tampa Ammonia dropped 15.2% during the last month and was down 22.6% during the last 3 months
• Major UAN, Ammonia and Urea nitrogen benchmark prices were mixed
• Shares of CF Industries Holdings Inc. and Yara International ASA were up, while Nutrien Ltd. was down in the latest week
• Natural gas, which drives producer costs, has increased 1.1% during the last week and was up 5.3% during the last month
• The price of corn, a driver of fertilizer purchases, increased 0.1% during the last week and was down 7.1% during the last month

 Brazil Urea Prices Strengthen on Supply Disruptions

Brazil urea prices strengthened an average of 13% in January, fueled by Indian purchasing and export restrictions from China, which tightened supply. Phosphates are also facing export restrictions from China, but Brazil prices slipped after several weeks of stability. Demand is building for potash, but ample supply is keeping a lid on prices.

Urea Prices Up in Brazil; Potash, Phosphates Weaken

Urea prices have strengthened an average of $43 a metric ton (mt) in Brazil since the start of the year, even with record imports in December and delayed corn planting due to bad weather. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices have been largely stable for the month, losing only $5/mt from the high, with strong demand balancing record imports of 5.46 million mt in 2023. An oversupply of potash in Brazil has pressured prices down an average of $10/mt since the start of the year, even as demand accelerates. Producers are pushing to export greater potash volume to Brazil as they compete for demand, potentially swelling inventories even more.

 

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