Global Ag News for Jan 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina soy, corn need rains to rebound from hot, dry weather

Rains are needed to refresh Argentina’s parched soy and corn crops, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said on Thursday, after weeks of hot and dry weather.

Showers should come within the next week, the exchange’s weather analyst told Reuters on Wednesday.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, and the No. 3 exporter of corn. However, the nation’s farming heartland has received little to no rain since December, affecting the development of the two crops.

“Rain will be needed in the critical period… to sustain potential yield” of the soybean crop, the exchange said, adding nearly 92% of an expected 18.4 million hectares have been planted with soy so far.

The corn crop, meanwhile, is starting to show “water stress and loss of yield potential,” according to the exchange. Farmers have also planted around 92% of the crop, expected to cover 6.6 million hectares.

The exchange expects 50-75 millimeters (2-3 inches) of rain to fall on the agricultural region between Jan. 16 and 22.

WHEAT

While the corn and soy crops are growing, wheat harvesting is nearly wrapped up, the exchange said. An estimated 98.2% of wheat fields have been threshed, with output seen at 18.6 million metric tons, according to the exchange.

“Average yield continues to increase as the harvest progresses,” the exchange said.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 5 3/4; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 1.31.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 5 in SRW, up 12 1/2 in HRW, up 6 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 6 3/4; Soybeans up 13; Soymeal down $10.80; Soyoil up 4.14.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 17 1/4 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, down 11 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 5 3/4; Soymeal down $19.10; Soyoil up 3.71.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 44 yuan; Soymeal up 12; Soyoil up 18; Palm oil down 16; Corn up 27 — Malaysian Palm is up 95.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 95 ringgit (+2.21%) at 4391.

 

There were changes in registrations (-12 Soybeans). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 72 Oats; 6 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,466 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 9 were: SRW Wheat up 6,458 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,970, Corn down 5,390, Soybeans up 6,883, Soymeal up 282, Soyoil up 2,132.

 

Brazil: Widespread wet season showers continue in central and northern Brazil, favorable for filling soybeans, but perhaps hampering the very early harvest. The main harvest period does not start for a couple of weeks yet, so the rain is overall favorable. Showers across the south are much more infrequent for the next couple of weeks, which could be a problem for filling soybeans in Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana and pollinating to filling corn in Rio Grande do Sul.

Argentina: Soil moisture is falling in many areas of Argentina and the forecast is only calling for spotty, isolated showers across the south and far west through the middle of next week. We may see a burst or two of showers moving through later next week, but amounts are currently forecast to be spotty. That should start leading to issues for early-planted corn that is pollinating to filling. It is still early for late-planted corn and soybeans to have major concerns, but issues may start to pop up with temperatures above normal coinciding with the lack of rainfall.

Northern Plains: The region will see several systems and fronts push through over the next couple of weeks, but not enough to have a significant impact on the drought that continues to be a concern this winter. Temperatures will be more above normal than below it through most of next week, but we should see a big burst of cold air moving back into the region next weekend.

Central/Southern Plains: Cold air that has settled in this week may have caused some winter kill on exposed wheat and higher rations for livestock. A system will move through Texas and Oklahoma Thursday and Friday and may clip southeastern Kansas with some moderate snow as well. That could help the soil moisture situation in these areas. It will also be a generally colder pattern through much of next week too. A big storm system is likely to move through late next week or weekend, potentially bringing some heavier precipitation, but also another burst of very cold air.

Midwest: Another snow producing system will move through southern and eastern areas late Thursday and Friday. A clipper will follow behind it for the weekend into early next week with scattered snow as well as a burst of colder air. Temperatures through next week are mixed. A much bigger burst of cold air is being forecast for next weekend into the following week behind a large system that could mean heavy precipitation as well.

Lower Mississippi: Water levels remain above the low-water mark in most of the Mississippi and Ohio River systems, bolstered by a strong storm this past weekend and another coming up on Thursday and Friday. If yet another one of these larger systems moves through later next week, water levels will continue to be high, allowing for easy transportation. Northern areas of the Mississippi Basin are getting drier though, and could use some precipitation.

 

The player sheet for Jan. 9 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 5,500 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 114,650 metric tons of milling wheat sourced from the United States in a tender
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) bought around 65,000 to 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal without issuing an international tender
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 metric tons of animal feed barley in an international tender
• CORN PURCHASE: The Incheon section of the Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea is believed to have purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• NO PURCHASE IN CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB is believed to have made no purchase in a tender that closed on Jan. 7 for up to 240,000 metric tons of corn to be sourced only from Argentina or Brazil
• OFFERS IN RICE TENDER: The lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice was assessed at $454.14 a metric ton CIF liner out.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) has issued an international tender to purchase up to 140,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, with price offers due by Jan. 1.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Friday for week ending Jan. 2.

• Corn est. range 600k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 917k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 1,300k tons, with avg of 717k

 

Argentina Dryness Hurting Soy, Corn Plants: Grain Exchange

Moisture levels are falling on soy farms, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• About half of the early soy crop is entering a key growth stage where rains will be needed to meet yield potential
• Soy planting progress 97%
• Dryness is also damaging corn plants; corn planting progress 92%

 

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Jan. 9: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2024-25 corn and soybean area planted estimates are maintained
• Soybean planting advances to 97% complete and corn planting 92% complete

 

China Slashes Corn Import Estimates by 31% for 2024/25

China cut its estimate for corn imports in the 2024/25 year to 9 million tons from a 13 million forecast last month, a blow to an already bearish outlook for global grains demand.

• The agriculture ministry made the prediction in its China Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released on Friday. The forecast is well below half of the 23.41 million tons of imports in 2023/2024
• Chinese corn prices in 2024/25 will be supported by the significantly lower imports and elevated demand from feed and processing sectors, while purchases by state grain stockpiler Sinograin would also aid local prices, the ministry said
• The ministry raised its estimate for Chinese corn output for 2024/25 to a record 294.92 million tons, less than 1% higher than its previous forecast
• Cotton output in 2024/25 was estimated at 6.16 million tons, up from last month’s forecast of 5.9 million tons
• NOTE: Beijing last year asked top traders to limit purchases of overseas grains including corn, to bolster domestic prices and protect farmers’ profits. Prices have been falling due to weak demand in China

 

Russia’s 2024 Grain Exports Grew to 73.1M Tons: Regulator

Russia’s 2024 exports of grain and grain products totaled 86.7m tons, agricultural regulator Rosselkhoznadzor says in a statement Thursday.

• That compares to 83.9m tons in 2023, according to the regulator
• Of the total, 2024 grain exports alone reached 73.1m tons, up 4m tons y/y
• Wheat exports stood at 57.5m tons, barley exports at 8.2m tons, corn exports at 6.7m tons

 

Brazil 2024/25 Wheat Crop Seen At 7.53 Million – StoneX

• Brazil: Bayer
• NOTE: More companies are turning to so-called novel oilseeds such as camelina in a bid to profit from biofuel markets, which put a premium on low-carbon fuel sources
• NOTE: Separately, Bayer and Neste signed an MoU partly relating to winter canola as a fuel feedstock, according to a Jan. 8 statement

 

Malaysia Dec. Palm Oil Stockpiles Fall to 1.709m Tons: MPOB

Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles fell to 1.709m tons in December from revised 1.836m tons in November, according to Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

• Palm oil production fell to 1.487m tons from 1.621m tons in November
• Palm oil exports fell to 1.342m tons from revised 1.490m tons in November

 

 

 

 

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